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Climate Resilience and Innovation in a Polarized Society:
Strategies to Inform Communication and Collaborative Action
@MCNisbet
Final Lecture in Spring
2014 course on
“Communication,
Culture and the
Environment”
Matthew C. Nisbet
Associate Professor
School of Communication
American University
Washington D.C.
Risk Perceptions and Personal Experience
@MCNisbet
@MCNisbet
Present protection will need to be upgraded to avoid average global flood losses from socio-economic change, climate change, and
subsidence that total US$1 trillion or more per year. This estimate optimistically assumes 10 cm SLR in 2030, 20 cm in 2050,
and 30 cm in 2070 with equal global distribution.
Nature Climate Change 3, 802–806 (2013)
Boston Society of Architects (2013) ; Mass Gov (2011). City of Boston.gov Climate Action Web Site
Climate Ready Boston (2013)
Climate Change as Public Health Threat
Extreme Heat and Infectious Disease
@MCNisbetClimate Ready Boston (2013); Centers for Disease Control (2013).
Public Engagement and Communication?
@MCNisbetCity of Boston Climate Action Plan (2011); Boston Harbor Association (2013); Marty Walsh for Mayor (2012)
Holding community meetings in each neighborhood, particularly those closest to
the waterfront, will enable us to hear each other‟s concerns and brainstorm best
approaches to specific local problems where a one-size-fits-all measure might not
be the best solution. Finally, I will seek to expand and foster current city
relationships with leading climate researchers at our exceptional colleges and
universities….
Framing Science?
Context and Identity Shape Perceptions of Complex Debates
@MCNisbet
Framing Science?
Context and Identity Shape Perceptions of Complex Debates
@MCNisbet
Audience Segmentation and Public Perceptions
@MCNisbet
Preparing and Planning Ahead for Climate Impacts
A Public Health Prevention Approach
@MCNisbetMaibach EW, Roser-Renouf C, Leiserowitz A (2008). Communication and Marketing as Climate Change Intervention
Assets: A Public Health Perspective. American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 35(5), 488-500.
In Depth Interviews w/ 70 subjects by Segment
@MCNisbetMaibach, E., Nisbet, M.C. et al. (2010). BMC Public Health 10: 299.
Segment 4-6:
Sentence Specific Reaction to Essay
@MCNisbet
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
O1 O2 O3 O4 O5 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 B1 B2 B3 B4 C1 C2
DISENGAGED DOUBTFUL
DISMISSIVE POPULATION
Maibach, E., Nisbet, M.C. et al. (2010). BMC Public Health 10: 299.
Provoking Anger Across Audience Segments:
Identifying Boomerang Effects
@MCNisbetMyers, T., Nisbet, M.C., Maibach, E.W., & Leiserowitz, A. (2012). Climatic Change.
Morality Binds, Divides and Blinds Us to Threats
@MCNisbet
“A basic principle of moral psychology is that „morality
binds and blinds.‟ In many pre-agricultural
societies, groups achieved trust and unity by circling
around sacred objects. In modern societies, much larger
groups bind themselves together by treating certain
books, flags, leaders or ideals as sacred and by
symbolically circling around them. But if your team
circles too fast, you lose the ability to see clearly or think
for yourself. You go blind to evidence that contradicts
your group‟s moral consensus, and you become
enraged at teammates who suggest that the other side is
not entirely bad.” – New York Times, Nov. 7, 2012
Energy Resilience and Climate Disruption
Warmer, Wetter Future with More Extremes
@MCNisbet
Engaging A Broader Public Via Energy Resilience?
@MCNisbetMASSPIRG 2013. Moving Off the Road.
Engaging A Broader Public Via Energy Resilience
@MCNisbetMASSPIRG (2013). Moving Off the Road; MA Gov (2010) Clean Energy & Climate Plan 2020
Will Oil Prices Triple in Next Five Years?
@MCNisbetNisbet, Maibach, & Leiserowitz (2011). American Journal of Public Health.
Oil Price Spikes and Risk to Economy?
@MCNisbetNisbet, Maibach, & Leiserowitz (2011). American Journal of Public Health.
Oil Price Spikes and Risk to Public Health?
@MCNisbetNisbet, Maibach, & Leiserowitz (2011). American Journal of Public Health.
Voices from Coastal Communities
Fatalism and Low Efficacy
@MCNisbet
Moser, S. C. (in press). In: Successful Adaptation to Climate Change: Linking Science and Practice in a Rapidly Changing
World, ed. S.C. Moser and M.T. Boykoff, Routledge, London.
Community Dialogue After Hurricane Isabel
Anne Arundel County, Maryland
@MCNisbet
Community Dialogue and Polarization
GMU, USNA, Dewberry
@MCNisbet
Timeline of Actions
 2003 Hurricane Isabel floods Annapolis, coastal communities
 2007 Gov. O‟Malley creates MD Commission on Climate Change
 Science Working Group uses 2007 IPCC models to estimate sea-level rise
projections for state from 2.7 ft to 3.4 ft by 2100.
 Recommend planners anticipate 1ft rise by 2050 and 2ft rise by 2100.
 Anne Arundel County and Annapolis begin their own evaluation process.
Project Focus
• County mail survey, N = 300
• Deliberative forums, 2 moderators at each table, N = 40
• Risk projection web site
CASI Final Project Report (2013).
Cultural Identity Explains Substantial Proportion
of Risk Perceptions and Policy Preferences
@MCNisbetCASI Final Project Report (2013).
“Local policy discourses on
sea-level rise are not emerging
into a neutral arena, but one in
which cultural meanings have
already begun to form. In this
environment, traditional
communication strategies of
providing „objective‟
assessments are unlikely to
staunch further issue
polarization, as has been case
in Virginia and North Carolina.”
Brokering Shared Identity and Outlook
Localized Dialogue Softens Cultural Cognition
@MCNisbetCASI Final Project Report (2013).
Cultural Identity Explains Substantial Proportion
of Risk Perceptions and Policy Preferences
@MCNisbetCASI Final Project Report (2013).
http://www.futurecoast.info/
Experts and Coastal Property Owners
From Trusted Sources of Information to Brokers of Dialogue
@MCNisbetCone, J et al 2013. Reframing Engagement Methods for Climate Change Adaptation. Coastal Management, 41: 345-360.
Experts and Coastal Property Owners
From Trusted Sources of Information to Brokers of Dialogue
@MCNisbetCone, J et al 2013. Reframing Engagement Methods for Climate Change Adaptation. Coastal Management, 41: 345-360.
Research Informs Design of Communication
@MCNisbet
Creating Shared Understanding & Consolidating Views
Recommendations
@MCNisbet
Recommendations
 Feature adaptive strategies – effective and failed – in engagement efforts.
 Property owners prefer to hear about experiences of neighbors more so than advice
from scientific experts.
 Host local meetings with property owners, experts, and officials to discuss
changes, impacts, and risks that they are experiencing.
 Participants believed that simply coming together was productive in its own right.
 Identify and highlight “early adopters,” local property owners who have already started
to engage in adaptive behaviors.
“What is required is creating conditions for helping communities make
meaning out of the science and its findings for themselves and their local
conditions in ways that support their including that science into their regular
decision-making…Good models that put scientists, communicators, and
publics into dialogue about what they know, what it means, and how to put it
to work suggest using group processes and visible thinking routines for
creating and sustaining dialogues about climate change.”
Preparing and Planning Ahead for Climate Change
Building a Civic Science Infrastructure and Network
@MCNisbet
Nisbet, M.C., Hixon, M., Moore, K.D., & Nelson, M. (2010). The Four Cultures: New Synergies for Engaging Society on
Climate Change. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 8, 329-331.
www.ClimateShiftProject.org/Courses
@MCNisbet

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Climate Resilience and Innovation in a Polarized Society: Strategies to Inform Communication and Collaborative Action

  • 1. Climate Resilience and Innovation in a Polarized Society: Strategies to Inform Communication and Collaborative Action @MCNisbet Final Lecture in Spring 2014 course on “Communication, Culture and the Environment” Matthew C. Nisbet Associate Professor School of Communication American University Washington D.C.
  • 2. Risk Perceptions and Personal Experience @MCNisbet
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5. @MCNisbet Present protection will need to be upgraded to avoid average global flood losses from socio-economic change, climate change, and subsidence that total US$1 trillion or more per year. This estimate optimistically assumes 10 cm SLR in 2030, 20 cm in 2050, and 30 cm in 2070 with equal global distribution. Nature Climate Change 3, 802–806 (2013)
  • 6. Boston Society of Architects (2013) ; Mass Gov (2011). City of Boston.gov Climate Action Web Site
  • 7.
  • 9. Climate Change as Public Health Threat Extreme Heat and Infectious Disease @MCNisbetClimate Ready Boston (2013); Centers for Disease Control (2013).
  • 10. Public Engagement and Communication? @MCNisbetCity of Boston Climate Action Plan (2011); Boston Harbor Association (2013); Marty Walsh for Mayor (2012) Holding community meetings in each neighborhood, particularly those closest to the waterfront, will enable us to hear each other‟s concerns and brainstorm best approaches to specific local problems where a one-size-fits-all measure might not be the best solution. Finally, I will seek to expand and foster current city relationships with leading climate researchers at our exceptional colleges and universities….
  • 11. Framing Science? Context and Identity Shape Perceptions of Complex Debates @MCNisbet
  • 12. Framing Science? Context and Identity Shape Perceptions of Complex Debates @MCNisbet
  • 13. Audience Segmentation and Public Perceptions @MCNisbet
  • 14. Preparing and Planning Ahead for Climate Impacts A Public Health Prevention Approach @MCNisbetMaibach EW, Roser-Renouf C, Leiserowitz A (2008). Communication and Marketing as Climate Change Intervention Assets: A Public Health Perspective. American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 35(5), 488-500.
  • 15. In Depth Interviews w/ 70 subjects by Segment @MCNisbetMaibach, E., Nisbet, M.C. et al. (2010). BMC Public Health 10: 299.
  • 16. Segment 4-6: Sentence Specific Reaction to Essay @MCNisbet -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 O1 O2 O3 O4 O5 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 B1 B2 B3 B4 C1 C2 DISENGAGED DOUBTFUL DISMISSIVE POPULATION Maibach, E., Nisbet, M.C. et al. (2010). BMC Public Health 10: 299.
  • 17. Provoking Anger Across Audience Segments: Identifying Boomerang Effects @MCNisbetMyers, T., Nisbet, M.C., Maibach, E.W., & Leiserowitz, A. (2012). Climatic Change.
  • 18. Morality Binds, Divides and Blinds Us to Threats @MCNisbet “A basic principle of moral psychology is that „morality binds and blinds.‟ In many pre-agricultural societies, groups achieved trust and unity by circling around sacred objects. In modern societies, much larger groups bind themselves together by treating certain books, flags, leaders or ideals as sacred and by symbolically circling around them. But if your team circles too fast, you lose the ability to see clearly or think for yourself. You go blind to evidence that contradicts your group‟s moral consensus, and you become enraged at teammates who suggest that the other side is not entirely bad.” – New York Times, Nov. 7, 2012
  • 19. Energy Resilience and Climate Disruption Warmer, Wetter Future with More Extremes @MCNisbet
  • 20. Engaging A Broader Public Via Energy Resilience? @MCNisbetMASSPIRG 2013. Moving Off the Road.
  • 21. Engaging A Broader Public Via Energy Resilience @MCNisbetMASSPIRG (2013). Moving Off the Road; MA Gov (2010) Clean Energy & Climate Plan 2020
  • 22. Will Oil Prices Triple in Next Five Years? @MCNisbetNisbet, Maibach, & Leiserowitz (2011). American Journal of Public Health.
  • 23. Oil Price Spikes and Risk to Economy? @MCNisbetNisbet, Maibach, & Leiserowitz (2011). American Journal of Public Health.
  • 24. Oil Price Spikes and Risk to Public Health? @MCNisbetNisbet, Maibach, & Leiserowitz (2011). American Journal of Public Health.
  • 25. Voices from Coastal Communities Fatalism and Low Efficacy @MCNisbet Moser, S. C. (in press). In: Successful Adaptation to Climate Change: Linking Science and Practice in a Rapidly Changing World, ed. S.C. Moser and M.T. Boykoff, Routledge, London.
  • 26. Community Dialogue After Hurricane Isabel Anne Arundel County, Maryland @MCNisbet
  • 27. Community Dialogue and Polarization GMU, USNA, Dewberry @MCNisbet Timeline of Actions  2003 Hurricane Isabel floods Annapolis, coastal communities  2007 Gov. O‟Malley creates MD Commission on Climate Change  Science Working Group uses 2007 IPCC models to estimate sea-level rise projections for state from 2.7 ft to 3.4 ft by 2100.  Recommend planners anticipate 1ft rise by 2050 and 2ft rise by 2100.  Anne Arundel County and Annapolis begin their own evaluation process. Project Focus • County mail survey, N = 300 • Deliberative forums, 2 moderators at each table, N = 40 • Risk projection web site CASI Final Project Report (2013).
  • 28. Cultural Identity Explains Substantial Proportion of Risk Perceptions and Policy Preferences @MCNisbetCASI Final Project Report (2013). “Local policy discourses on sea-level rise are not emerging into a neutral arena, but one in which cultural meanings have already begun to form. In this environment, traditional communication strategies of providing „objective‟ assessments are unlikely to staunch further issue polarization, as has been case in Virginia and North Carolina.”
  • 29. Brokering Shared Identity and Outlook Localized Dialogue Softens Cultural Cognition @MCNisbetCASI Final Project Report (2013).
  • 30. Cultural Identity Explains Substantial Proportion of Risk Perceptions and Policy Preferences @MCNisbetCASI Final Project Report (2013).
  • 32. Experts and Coastal Property Owners From Trusted Sources of Information to Brokers of Dialogue @MCNisbetCone, J et al 2013. Reframing Engagement Methods for Climate Change Adaptation. Coastal Management, 41: 345-360.
  • 33. Experts and Coastal Property Owners From Trusted Sources of Information to Brokers of Dialogue @MCNisbetCone, J et al 2013. Reframing Engagement Methods for Climate Change Adaptation. Coastal Management, 41: 345-360.
  • 34. Research Informs Design of Communication @MCNisbet
  • 35. Creating Shared Understanding & Consolidating Views Recommendations @MCNisbet Recommendations  Feature adaptive strategies – effective and failed – in engagement efforts.  Property owners prefer to hear about experiences of neighbors more so than advice from scientific experts.  Host local meetings with property owners, experts, and officials to discuss changes, impacts, and risks that they are experiencing.  Participants believed that simply coming together was productive in its own right.  Identify and highlight “early adopters,” local property owners who have already started to engage in adaptive behaviors. “What is required is creating conditions for helping communities make meaning out of the science and its findings for themselves and their local conditions in ways that support their including that science into their regular decision-making…Good models that put scientists, communicators, and publics into dialogue about what they know, what it means, and how to put it to work suggest using group processes and visible thinking routines for creating and sustaining dialogues about climate change.”
  • 36. Preparing and Planning Ahead for Climate Change Building a Civic Science Infrastructure and Network @MCNisbet Nisbet, M.C., Hixon, M., Moore, K.D., & Nelson, M. (2010). The Four Cultures: New Synergies for Engaging Society on Climate Change. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 8, 329-331.

Editor's Notes

  1. Blind spot for gas and oil prices. States and cities where we live, we depend considerably less on low gas prices. Earn more money, therefore absorb volatility in gas prices, we don’t directly depend on gas for our profession or jobs, and we drive considerably less. MA 8,000, VT 11,000 ME 10,000 DC 5,700, MS 13K, OK 12K
  2. Blind spot for gas and oil prices. States and cities where we live, we depend considerably less on low gas prices. Earn more money, therefore absorb volatility in gas prices, we don’t directly depend on gas for our profession or jobs, and we drive considerably less. MA 8,000, VT 11,000 ME 10,000 DC 5,700, MS 13K, OK 12K
  3. Blind spot for gas and oil prices. States and cities where we live, we depend considerably less on low gas prices. Earn more money, therefore absorb volatility in gas prices, we don’t directly depend on gas for our profession or jobs, and we drive considerably less. MA 8,000, VT 11,000 ME 10,000 DC 5,700, MS 13K, OK 12K
  4. Blind spot for gas and oil prices. States and cities where we live, we depend considerably less on low gas prices. Earn more money, therefore absorb volatility in gas prices, we don’t directly depend on gas for our profession or jobs, and we drive considerably less. MA 8,000, VT 11,000 ME 10,000 DC 5,700, MS 13K, OK 12K
  5. Blind spot for gas and oil prices. States and cities where we live, we depend considerably less on low gas prices. Earn more money, therefore absorb volatility in gas prices, we don’t directly depend on gas for our profession or jobs, and we drive considerably less. MA 8,000, VT 11,000 ME 10,000 DC 5,700, MS 13K, OK 12K
  6. Blind spot for gas and oil prices. States and cities where we live, we depend considerably less on low gas prices. Earn more money, therefore absorb volatility in gas prices, we don’t directly depend on gas for our profession or jobs, and we drive considerably less. MA 8,000, VT 11,000 ME 10,000 DC 5,700, MS 13K, OK 12K
  7. Blind spot for gas and oil prices. States and cities where we live, we depend considerably less on low gas prices. Earn more money, therefore absorb volatility in gas prices, we don’t directly depend on gas for our profession or jobs, and we drive considerably less. MA 8,000, VT 11,000 ME 10,000 DC 5,700, MS 13K, OK 12K
  8. Blind spot for gas and oil prices. States and cities where we live, we depend considerably less on low gas prices. Earn more money, therefore absorb volatility in gas prices, we don’t directly depend on gas for our profession or jobs, and we drive considerably less. MA 8,000, VT 11,000 ME 10,000 DC 5,700, MS 13K, OK 12K
  9. Blind spot for gas and oil prices. States and cities where we live, we depend considerably less on low gas prices. Earn more money, therefore absorb volatility in gas prices, we don’t directly depend on gas for our profession or jobs, and we drive considerably less. MA 8,000, VT 11,000 ME 10,000 DC 5,700, MS 13K, OK 12K
  10. Blind spot for gas and oil prices. States and cities where we live, we depend considerably less on low gas prices. Earn more money, therefore absorb volatility in gas prices, we don’t directly depend on gas for our profession or jobs, and we drive considerably less. MA 8,000, VT 11,000 ME 10,000 DC 5,700, MS 13K, OK 12K