Presentation slides from a webinar featuring results from the Climate Change Atlas for New England and northern New York. Part of the New England Climate Change Response Framework (www.forestadaptation.org). Presentation by Louis Iverson, Steve Matthews, and Maria Janowiak.

1. CLIMATE CHANGE ATLAS
NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
Maria Janowiak
New England Climate Change
Response Framework
Louis Iverson
Climate Change Tree Atlas
Steve Matthews
Climate Change Bird Atlas

2. How do we get from this?
Climate change information is overwhelming!
www.forestadaptation.org/NESAF2015
To this…

3. Desired
ConditionsNatural Forest
Dynamics
Wildlife
Habitat
Past
Management
History
Invasives Timber Sale
Revenue
Disturbance:
Past + Future
Recreation
Forest
Health
And more!!
Climate
Change
Plan & Project
Requirements

4. Vulnerability Assessment (in prep)
Synthesize findings of state/regional assessments and
scientific literature
• Identify common areas of agreement regarding ecosystems
and species most likely to be at risk
• Describe state-of-knowledge for anticipated
changes in climate and response
of forest ecosystems
Incorporate results of the
Climate Change Tree
Atlas and LANDIS for
three sub-regions

5. Climate Change Impacts
Several high-quality regional and state
assessments exist in New England
1) Longer Growing Season
2) Shorter Winters
3) Potential for Summer Drought
4) CO2 Fertilization
5) Changes in Suitable Habitat
6) Extreme Events
7) Wildfire Risk
8) Forest Pests and Diseases
9) Invasive Plants

6. Future Climate Change
Variability among Projections

7. Future Climate Change
Variability among Projections

8. Climate Scenarios Used
 Two scenarios show the range of possible change
• PCM B1: Low emissions scenario + less sensitive GCM
• GFDL A1FI: High emissions + more sensitive GCM
 Projections are consistent with other data sets
 Think of them like bookends:
Least Projected
Change
Most Projected
Change
PCM
Low emissions (B1)
GFDL
High emissions (A1FI)

9. PCM B1 GFDL A1FI
Annual Average Temperature
2070 to 2099
Future Climate Change Change in
30-year average (°F)
2070-2099 vs. 1971-2000

10. Emission
scenarios
developed
and used as
inputs
Models
projections are
run using
GCMs
GCM
projections
are
downscaled
to a smaller
grid scale
Downscaled
GCM data and
other info is
used as inputs
into impact
models
B1 PCM
~3 °  1/8°
Tree Atlas
General Process
Our Assessments
A1F1 GFDL LANDIS
Future Forest Change

11. • Tree abundance
• Bird abundance
• Climate
• Environment
• Forest density
• Species traits
Data
DISTRIB model
Species habitat prediction
Tree and
Bird
Atlases
ModFacs
• Biological factors
• Disturbance factors
• Model uncertainty
SHIFT model
Species colonization
probabilities
Potential
migration
by 2100
Possible modified
interpretation of
model results
• Management guidelines
• Implications and tools
Current and
future species
management
Potential
habitat changes
at 2040, 2070,
2100
Iverson et al. 2011 Ecosystems
Modeling Potential Changes in Tree
Species Habitats: Multi-stage Modeling

12. Trees: Forest Inventory -> Importance Value (IV) -> measure of abundance
Birds: Breeding Bird Survey -> Incidence -> measure of abundance
Modeled responses
Forest Inventory and Analysis
(FIA)
• Eastern US extent (37 states)
• 134 tree taxa
• > 100,000 plots
• ~ 3 million tree records
Importance value (IV)
for 134 tree species
(Range: 0-100)
Breeding Bird Survey
(BBS)
• Eastern US extent (37 states)
• 147 bird species
• ~ 1000 BBS routes
Incidences
for 147 bird species
(Range of incidences: 0-1)
Rate each species model for reliability
Iverson et al. 2011 Ecosystems
Atlas ingredients (DISTRIB model)

13. www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas

15. Modifying Factors (ModFacs)
We rate biological and disturbance
characteristics for positive or negative impacts
We also quantify some aspects of uncertainty
Goal was to evaluate more realistic outcomes
at regional and local levels
Matthews et al. 2011, For. Ecol. Manage.

16. Time
Climate change pressure and disturbance intensity
increases thus altering habitat suitability of species
Current stand Major Resulting forest stand
Minor
Time
Modification Factors (ModFacs)
help interpretation of potential futures
 Biological traits (n=9)
• Competitive capacity
• Edaphic specificity
 Disturbances (n=12)
• Insects
• Disease
• Fire
• Drought
• Flood
• Wind
• Invasives
• Browse
Some of the ModFacs:

17. Red Maple
?
Low
HighKey ModFacs

18. White Ash
?
Low
High
Positive Traits Negative Traits
None Insect pest (EAB)
Competition – light
Fire - topkill
Key ModFacs

19. Red Maple:
• Projected habitat
declines
• Characteristics suggest
high adaptability
Black Oak:
• Projected habitat
increases
• Positive ModFac profile
suggests it may be able
to persist in harsh areas
White Ash:
• Projected habitat
declines
• Negative ModFac
• Metrics suggest it will
likely face severe limits
in eastern US
Matthews et al. 2011, For. Ecol. Manag.; Iverson et al. 2011 Ecosystems
12 Disturbance Factors and 9 Biological Factors considered
Modification Factors
Low Adaptability
High Adaptability

20. www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/products/#ra

21. www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/products/#ra

22. New England Analysis
“Northern Forest”
1: Southern/Coastal New England
2: Eastern Maine
3: Northern Forest

23. Species and Model Reliability–the reliability of the model –
green=good; orange=fair; red=poor. It represents the ‘trust’ you can
put in the model results (“all models are wrong; some are useful“).
Northern Forest

24. Species Importance – FIA IV is the importance value as reported from FIA;
Current Modeled is our model to replicate FIA based on 38 environmental
variables . These are area-weighted numbers, meaning it is the sum of the average
IV for each of the 20x20 km pixels in the study area.
Northern Forest

25. Modeled IV – Estimates of future area-weighted IV for three time periods: 2010-
2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099 (compare to current IV, previous columns).
PCM B1 is a mild scenario
GFDL A1FI is a harsh scenario
The idea is to create ‘bookends’ on what may happen to tree species habitats.
Remember: this represents modeled potential for
changes in suitable habitat by 2039, 2069, 2099; not what
the composition will necessarily look like by those times.
Trees live a long time; migration takes a long time unassisted.
Northern Forest

26. Future:Current– Ratio of future estimate of habitat to current estimate of habitat
(not where the species will be!), for three time periods in future.
A ratio of ~ 1 = no change; a ratio < 1 = decrease; a ratio >1 = increase in future..
Northern Forest

27. Change Class – our interpretation of potential habitat changes by 2100. This is
based on a set of rules for the ratios . Color scheme are greens (increase), yellow
(no change), reds (decrease), purple (new habitat)
Northern Forest

28. Modifying Factors –additional information about the potential of the species to thrive
under climate change.
Positive (or Negative) Traits – traits that scored highly in favor (or not) of the species (see
chart for translation of abbreviations, you can also download this ModFac Codes file).
Northern Forest

29. DistFact – average score of 12 disturbance factors and the capacity of the species
to withstand them, scaled -3 to +3. See Matthews et al (2011) publication
(Publications on the website) for full explanation of Modifying Factors.
Northern Forest

30. BioFact – average score of 9 biological factors and the capacity of the species to
withstand them, scaled -3 to +3. See Matthews et al (2011) publication
(Publications on the website) for full explanation of Modifying Factors.
Northern Forest

31. Adapt – index of biological and disturbance factors, range 1.7-8.5.
Low values < 3.3 (red) – species likely to do worse than DISTRIB projects;
Medium values (orange) 3.3-5.2 – species may do roughly as modeled;
High values (green) > 5.2 – species likely to do better than DISTRIB projects

32. Declines under Both Scenarios
Balsam fir (–)
Balsam poplar
Black ash (–)
Black spruce
Mountain maple (+)
Northern white-cedar
Paper birch
Red spruce (–)
White spruce
Declines under High Emissions
American beech
Chokecherry
Pin cherry
Quaking aspen
Striped maple
Sugar maple (+)
Yellow birch
American mountain-ash (–) Based on end of century models
(–) ModFacs reduce species adaptability
(+) ModFacs increase species adaptability
No Change under Both Scenarios
American chestnut
Atlantic white-cedar (–)
Bear oak/Scrub oak
Bigtooth aspen
Eastern hemlock (–)
Eastern white pine
Gray birch
Pitch pine
Red maple (+)
White ash (–)

33. Increases under Both Scenarios
Black oak
Black willow (–)
Blackgum (+)
Chestnut oak (+)
Eastern cottonwood
Eastern redbud
Eastern redcedar
Flowering dogwood
Northern red oak (+)
Pignut hickory
Pin oak (–)
Scarlet oak
Serviceberry
Shagbark hickory
Silver maple (+)
Slippery elm
Sweet birch (–)
White oak (+)
Yellow-poplar (+)
Increases under High Emissions
American basswood
American elm
American hornbeam
Bitternut hickory (+)
Black cherry (–)
Black locust
Black walnut
Boxelder (+)
Bur oak (+)
Eastern hophornbeam (+)
Green ash
Honeylocust (+)
Mockernut hickory (+)
Northern pin oak** (+)
Ohio buckeye
Red pine
Sassafras
Swamp white oak
Sycamore

34. Mixed Results
Tamarack (native) (–)
Butternut (–)
Jack pine
New Suitable Habitat – Both
Hackberry** (+)
Red mulberry**
New Suitable Habitat – High
American holly
Black hickory
Blackjack oak (+)
Chinkapin oak**
Common persimmon (+)
Loblolly pine
Osage-orange (+)
Pawpaw**
Post oak (+)
Rock elm (–)
Shellbark hickory
Shingle oak
Shortleaf pine
Southern red oak (+)
Sugarberry
Sweetgum
Virginia pine
Wild plum
Winged elm

35. Regional climate change vulnerability assessment
must evaluate more than just vegetation changes.
How might climate change impact wildlife
distributions?
??

36. Trees: Forest Inventory -> Importance Value (IV) -> measure of abundance
Birds: Breeding Bird Survey -> Incidence -> measure of abundance
Modeled responses
Forest Inventory and Analysis
(FIA)
• Eastern US extent (37 states)
• 134 tree taxa
• > 100,000 plots
• ~ 3 million tree records
Importance value (IV)
for 134 tree species
(Range: 0-100)
Breeding Bird Survey
(BBS)
• Eastern US extent (37 states)
• 147 bird species
• ~ 1000 BBS routes
Incidences
for 147 bird species
(Range of incidences: 0-1)
Rate each species model for reliability
Iverson et al. 2011 Ecosystems
Atlas ingredients (DISTRIB model)

37. Climate plays a very important role in
shaping species distributions
Limits resource availability: seasonal pulses of food
Energetic constraints: limited by metabolic processes

38. What about birds and forests?
A natural ecological link to the importance
of floristic composition
• Robertson and Holmes one example from
HB direct link at fine scales over long time
intervals about the importance of floristic
composition capturing food resource etc..
• Not only represents important plant animal
interactions but bird communities change
over time as tree composition changed in a
maturing forest

39. Do the models really
benefit when trees are
used as a predictors?
(Matthews et al. 2011)
Black-throated
blue warbler
Climate/elevation onlyClimate, elevation and trees
- 93%- 55%
(Abundance index)

40. Climate/elevation only – greater loss and gains
Ecologically less of a link to key habitat features with only climate
Comparison of models when tree
species are not used as predictors
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
More change No change Less change Divergent
Numberofspecies

41. Projected to decline in habitat
and across models is placed in
the small declining category with
a range of 0.75 to 0.38 for
Vermont depending on scenario.
Further model shows strong
association with 3 softwoods
depending on position of range
(hemlock, white pine, balsam fir)
as well as climate determinants
Current Modeled
Pcm-low GFDL-High

42. July temp < 20c
Blue-headed Vireo
Understanding how the
models work provides
insights to understanding
habitat associations and
how those habitats are
projected to change
Let’s walk through an
example
Increasing
habitat

43. July temp < 20c Balsam Fir (IV>2) &
Eastern White Pine (IV>5)
Blue-headed Vireo
Increasing
habitat

44. July temp < 20c Balsam Fir (IV>2) &
Eastern White Pine (IV>5)
South – Eastern Hemlock
IV > 1 & IV > 4
North – Striped Maple
IV > 1 & IV > 2
Blue-headed Vireo
Increasing
habitat

45. Balsam Fir
Projected large
decrease in
habitat
Eastern white
pine
Small decrease in
habitat
In addition to the
models we also id
key traits that may
influence tree
species.
Interplay between tree and bird responses: projecting forward
Current Modeled
Pcm-low GFDL-High

46. Towards New England Assessment: Vermont example looking
across all species and evaluating state specific summary table for
birds and trees
Following similar approach to other assessments and
summarize 33 different variables for each species to assess
variability across different scenarios as well as other metrics
to help inform decisions

47. Vermont results: looking across all species and
evaluating state specific summary table
Trees
# of
species
Current
% IV
Extirpated 2 1
Lg. Dec. 11 21
Sm. Dec 9 41
No Change 6 28
Sm. Inc. 4 4
Lg. Inc. 20 5
New-Both 14 0
New-High 18 0
Total 84
Birds
# of
species
Extirpated 0
Lg. Dec. 18
Sm. Dec 25
No Change 32
Sm. Inc. 14
Lg. Inc. 21
New-Both 9
New-High 16
Total 135

48. Focus on birders dozen from Vermont
SppCN ModRely Low emission High emission Change class
Black-throated
Blue Warbler
High 0.81 0.51 Sm. Dec
Black-throated
Green Warbler
Medium 0.76 0.39 Sm. Dec
Blue-headed
Vireo
Medium 0.75 0.38 Sm. Dec
Canada Warbler Medium 0.69 0.35 Lg. Dec.
Eastern Wood-
Pewee
Low 1.3 1.6 Sm. Inc.
Veery High 0.88 0.33 Sm. Dec
White-throated
Sparrow
High 0.75 0.36 Sm. Dec
Wood Thrush High 1.0 0.76 No Change
Yellow-bellied
Sapsucker
High 0.77 0.3 Sm. Dec
Mourning
Warbler
Medium 0.57 0.27 Lg. Dec.
Nashville Warbler High 0.54 0.27 Lg. Dec.

49. Projected to decline in habitat
and across models is placed in
the small declining category with
a range of 0.81 to 0.51 for
Vermont depending on scenario.
Further model shows strong
association with mixed woods
(black spruce, yellow birch,
striped maple) as well as climate
determinants
Current Modeled
Pcm-low GFDL-High

50. Projected to decline in habitat
and across models is placed in
the small declining category with
a range of 0.68 to 0.35 for
Vermont depending on scenario.
Further model shows association
with balsam fir, hemlock, and
summer temperatures
Current Modeled
Pcm-low GFDL-High

51. QUESTIONS?
Slides posted at www.forestadaptation.org/NE-Atlas
Atlas web site: www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas