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Introduction to Climate Change


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Introduction to Climate Change

  1. 1. Chapter 1Climate Change 1
  2. 2. Contents in Climate Change• Introduction: The problem• Climate change and key mechanisms• Impacts of climate change• Mitigation and adaptation• Global climate change and public policy• Conclusion 2
  3. 3. 1. Introduction What do you see? Let’s describe what you see. What do you feel? Let’s share your feeling with your peers. Please tell me what you feel From this photo.Yes, our earth is warming or burning.Why? Can you tell me what cause this warming on the earth?What kinds of impact of global warming do we face now? 3
  4. 4. Global warming & Climate change• Global warming and climate change refer to an increase in average global temperatures.• Natural events and human activities as contributing to average global temperatures by increases in “greenhouse” gases such as Carbon Dioxide (CO2).• There are various reasons for increasing CO2 4
  5. 5. 2. Climate Change and Key Mechanisms 5
  6. 6. Problem • Global environment is deteriorating from CO2 increase→global warming→sea level rise, rain change, health problem • CO2 will be doubled in 70 years. How can we reduce CO2 emission? To do this, we need to understand its mechanism. • There are evidences supporting claim of climate change.Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere (ppmv) Global mean temperature 6
  7. 7. Radiation balance in the atmosphereLongwave radiation Shortwave radiation Absorption & heating Carbon dioxide 7
  8. 8. Global warming in the 21st Century could be 2℃ to 3.6℃ 8 IPCC Report
  9. 9. Warming predicted by models (IPCC) 9
  10. 10. 10
  11. 11. More rain or less rain? (IPCC Report) 11
  12. 12. Questions on Global warming• Is global warming real?• Is it because of CO2?• How much will warming proceed?• How much should we reduce CO2 emission?• Is it economically feasible?• We need more scientific proof rather than “CO2 will be as much as the dinosaur era”. 12
  13. 13. Is global warming caused by CO2 ?• We have heard the claim such as ‘Temperature variability induces CO2 variability’• We need to examine the cause-effect relationship. ○several years – ElNino:1ppm ← 1℃ ○100 years – Global warming due to anthropogenic CO2 : 100~300ppm → 1~4℃ – Little ice age:5ppm ← 1℃ ○1000 years~hundred of 1000 years – Glacier-interglacier:100ppm ↔ 10℃ – Feedback between temperature and CO2 13
  14. 14. Facts of global warming• Mechanisms1. CO2 by human activities.2. Outgoing longwave radiation is absorbed by CO2, and emits it back to the earth surface.3. Carbon cycle among atmosphere, land and ocean• Learn from old timeHigher CO2 in the dinosaur eraLower CO2 during the glacier period 14
  15. 15. Global Carbon (Dioxide) Cycle existing amount and annual flux Atmosphere (750 x 10**9 ton) 61 x 10**9 92 x 10**9 90 x 10**9 60 x 10**9 Ocean Anthropogenic Terrestrial ecosystem (600 x 10**9 ton) (40000 x 10**9 ton) 6 x 10**9 Soil (1000 x 10**9 ton)Nature is important! 15
  16. 16. Future sea level riseThermal expansionis a major cause. 16
  17. 17. Components of sea level riseDeep ocean (Antonov et al., GRL, 2005; Kohl et al., JPO, 2007).Ice sheets (linearly increases towards the 1990s estimates, as compiled in Lemke et al., IPCC, 2007)Glacier and small-ice caps (Dyurgerov and Meier, 2004).Terrestrial storage (Ngo-Duc et al., GRL, 2005). 17
  18. 18. 3. Impacts of Climate Change 18
  19. 19. Physical Changes on Earth The melting ice Tropical storm( (www. The drought 19 Flood
  20. 20. a. Rise in Atmospheric and Water Temp. b. Rise in Oceanic Temperaturec. Sea Level Rise and Salinity Intrusion 20
  21. 21. CC Impacts on Water ResourcesTHE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER 21
  22. 22. d. Disappearance of Existing Climatic Zones Latest climate modeling studies forecasts the complete disappearance of several existing climates in the tropical highlands and polar regions. shifting toward higher latitudes and higher elevations 22
  23. 23. e. Degradation of Biodiversity• The harmful anthropogenic impacts on biodiversity is being further exacerbated by global warming related changes.• It has been predicted that future changes in climate will directly affect the distribution, abundance and life cycles of most species.• The physiological mechanisms of cold-blooded vertebrate species such as fish, amphibians and reptiles are directly or indirectly temperature-dependent. 23
  24. 24. 4. Mitigation and Adaptation 24
  25. 25. Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change in Energy Sector• Mitigation: structural and non-structural measures undertaken to limit the adverse impact of natural hazards, environmental degradation, and technological hazards. It covers the actions that reduce forth coming disasters.• Adaptation: is an adjustment in human system and nature to face new environment or climate change. Adaptation can reduce the cost of climate change by reducing the damage caused by climate change. However, it doesn’t effect the raising of global temperature. 25
  26. 26. Current Energy Situation and Need for More Sustainable Energy System 7 000 6 000 Oil 5 000 Natural gas 4 000 Mtoe 3 000 Coal 2 000 Other renewables 1 000 Nuclear power Hydro power 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030Fossil fuels account for almost 90% of the growth in energy 26 demand between now and 2030
  27. 27. • The three largest sectors that emit CO2 and other GHSs are transportation, industrial energy and domestic energy. Thus, mitigation and adaptation in energy sector should be focused in these three areas. 27
  28. 28. 28
  29. 29. FACTS ON USING BIOFUELS• New land required for biofuels, food+fiber demand increasing, farm land area slowly shrinking (urban and other pressures): limited scope for turning to energy crops• Deforestation is caused by many factors including growth in biofuels, increasing world food demand and many other social and institutional factors• Land that is mostly used to produce animal food rather than human food is not optimal. It would be possible to meet most or all U.S. gasoline demands with ethanol while still producing enough food on the same land. 29
  30. 30. Revegetation of critical lands(case in Wanagama Education Forest establishment, Yogyakarta, Indonesia) BEFORE AFTER 30
  31. 31. Tropical Forest Rehabilitation (case in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia)Logged‐over area 10 year planting 1 year planting 31
  32. 32. 5. Global Climate Change & Public Policy 32
  33. 33. Global Climate Change & Public Policy• Climate change is a global challenge and requires a global solution.• Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission, CO2, have risen dramatically since the industrial revolution.• CO2 emission 145 fold since 1850 from 200 million tons to 29 billion tons a year now. Another 36 % increase by 2010 33
  34. 34. -China surpassed the US in 2006 as the largest emitter-China is responsible for 21 % of GHG emission in total.-US is responsible for 17 % of GHG emission., 34
  35. 35. -On the basis of Capita GHG emission, US emissions are more thantwice as high as those of the EU and Japan and 3 and 1/2 times theworld average (Figure 3)-On an intensity basis, US emissions are higher than EU’s and Japan’s(Figure 4) 35
  36. 36. The International Climate Effort 36
  37. 37. 1. UNFCCC• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change• Signed by President George H.W. Bush and ratified by the US Senate• 194 parties now• Objective -Stabilizing atmospheric GHG concentrations at a levelpreventing dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system 37
  38. 38. 2. Berlin Mandate-In 1995, calling for the negotiation of binding targets for developedcountries.-Led in 1997 to the Kyoto Protocol-Developed countries agreed to an average emission reduction of 5.2 %below 1990 levels by 2008-2012.-EU countries (-8%), Iceland (+10%), US (-7%)-3 market-based mechanism 1. International emissions trading (trading of emission allowances among countries with target 2. Joint Implementation (JI) and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM): credit emission reductions in developed and developing countries) 3. Setting emission targets as 5 years not single year and counting 6 GHG, providing credit for carbon storage in forest and farmland 38
  39. 39. 3. Kyoto Protocol• CO2 emission = 1 tonC/(person・year) as global average• 3 tC/(p・y) in Japan, 6 tC/(p・y) in the US• Reduction of emission by 6% of 1990 amount before 2010• We should not rely on forest too much.• Maximum absorption is about 20% of the existing ecosystem.• Terrestrial capacity is equivalent to human emission in 20 years.• How can we slow down CO2 increase?• Technological development• Natural energy (wind power, solar power, bio-energy etc.)• Enhancement of marine ecosystem (iron distribution)• Injection to deep rock and ocean lower layer• Nothing other than changes in our concept and life style? 39
  40. 40. Policy Challenges• Climate change is not just environmental issue; it is a challenge in modern civilization and relationship with life-support system.• Biophysical characteristics of the climate system correlate with the time scales, assumption and values/ethics of policy processes• Three aspects/issues of the climate-policy system 40
  41. 41. 1. Equity Issues 1. International debate between developed and developing countries 2. Future climate change obscured by the focus on China and India as future large emitters. 3. The most severe consequences from the developing world. 4. Complicated by that various countries quantify their contribution to a global problem. Ex: People in AU (20 million inhabitants) argue that their emissions are a very small fraction of the global total, and are already dwarfed by China’s emission. But measure on a per capita basis, the emissions are about equal to those of US and much higher than China’s. 41
  42. 42. 2. Mismatch Timescale 1. The very long time scales related to climate system present unusual challenges to the policy process 2. Multi-model mean of annual mean surface air temperature change, 2020-2029 and 2090-2099 3. No matter what we try to reduce CO2 emission in the next two decades No effect on the extent of climate change 4. The momentum built into the climate system is due largely to the thermal inertia in the oceans and the cryosphere- which means that we are committed to another 0.5 or 0.6 C of global mean temperature rise no perceptible effect for 25 years 42
  43. 43. 3. Thresholds, abrupt changes, non-linear effectsand irreversible changes 1. One of the most misunderstood characteristics of the climate system is that it is non-linear and tend to abrupt changes, threshold effects and irreversible changes 2. As in any complex system, very small change can trigger surprisingly large and catastrophic changes in a system 3. A few parts per million in CO2 concentration tip the climate system into a cascade of feedbacks(threshold) propelling the Earth into a different climatic and environmental state. 4. Threshold/feedback processes raise the issue of ‘overshoot’. 5. Not only is an ultimate target CO2 based on the biophysics of the climate system critical, the pathway to that target is just as important as the ultimate target itself. 43
  44. 44. Beyond Kyoto Protocol• What will come in 2050-2100?• The global population has increased by a factor of 2.4 in last 50 years, and will increase.• Some of the under-developing countries will become developed countries in 50 years, and emit a large amount of carbon dioxide.• Global warming will change the pattern of rain.• Biodiversity is reduced and food supply is limited.• Human health is damaged.• How can we solve this problem? 44
  45. 45. Global warming longer than 1000 yrs• Keep CO2 at 550 ppm in the atmosphere• 2 Gt-C of CO2 per year, absorbed in the ocean• Forests and soil will be filled with carbon in 100 years.• CO2 from the current developing countries will exceed that from the developed countries in 30years. 45
  46. 46. • Let’s think about your own contribution.• What would you try to reduce damage of global warming? Write how it works, and under what condition it does not work. Choose one from the following:• Improve a prediction model• Maintain forests well• Develop new technology to reduce CO2 emission• Introduce environmental-friendly methods to developing countries 46
  47. 47. ASSIGNMENT #6If you wish the certificate from this courseQ1: How much is carbon dioxide emitted every year?Q2: Which was proposed earlier, Kyoto Protocol or UN FCCC?Please send the answers by February 8 to (the second letter is l not one)If you have any question, you can contact Y. 47