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Section 4.3-‹#›
Copyright © 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.
Lecture Slides
Elementary Statistics
Twelfth Edition
and the Triola Statistics Series
by Mario F. Triola
Section 4.3-‹#›
Copyright © 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.
Chapter 4
Probability
4-1 Review and Preview
4-2 Basic Concepts of Probability
4-3 Addition Rule
4-4 Multiplication Rule: Basics
4-5 Multiplication Rule: Complements and Conditional
Probability
4-6 Counting
4-7 Probabilities Through Simulations
4-8 Bayes’ Theorem
Section 4.3-‹#›
Copyright © 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.
Key Concept
This section presents the addition rule as a
device for finding probabilities that can be
expressed as P(A or B), the probability that
either event A occurs or event B occurs (or they
both occur) as the single outcome of the
procedure.
The key word in this section is “or.” It is the
inclusive or, which means either one or the other
or both.
Section 4.3-‹#›
Copyright © 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.
Compound Event
any event combining 2 or more simple events
Compound Event
Notation
P(A or B) = P(in a single trial, event A occurs or
event B occurs or they both occur)
Section 4.3-‹#›
Copyright © 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.
When finding the probability that event A occurs
or event B occurs, find the total number of ways
A can occur and the number of ways B can
occur, but find that total in such a way that no
outcome is counted more than once.
General Rule for a
Compound Event
Section 4.3-‹#›
Copyright © 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.
Compound Event
Formal Addition Rule
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)
where P(A and B) denotes the probability that
A and B both occur at the same time as an
outcome in a trial of a procedure.
Section 4.3-‹#›
Copyright © 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.
Compound Event
Intuitive Addition Rule
To find P(A or B), find the sum of the number
of ways event A can occur and the number of
ways event B can occur, adding in such a
way that every outcome is counted only once.
P(A or B) is equal to that sum, divided by the
total number of outcomes in the sample
space.
Section 4.3-‹#›
Copyright © 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.
Disjoint or Mutually Exclusive
Events A and B are disjoint (or mutually
exclusive) if they cannot occur at the same
time. (That is, disjoint events do not overlap.)
Venn Diagram for Events That Are
Not Disjoint
Venn Diagram for Disjoint Events
Section 4.3-‹#›
Copyright © 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.
Complementary Events
A and must be disjoint.
It is impossible for an event and its
complement to occur at the same time.
A
Section 4.3-‹#›
Copyright © 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.
Rule of
Complementary Events
( ) ( ) 1
P A P A
 
( ) 1 ( )
P A P A
 
( ) 1 ( )
P A P A
 
Section 4.3-‹#›
Copyright © 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.
Venn Diagram for the
Complement of Event A

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Chapter 4 Section 3.ppt

  • 1. Section 4.3-‹#› Copyright © 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Lecture Slides Elementary Statistics Twelfth Edition and the Triola Statistics Series by Mario F. Triola
  • 2. Section 4.3-‹#› Copyright © 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 4 Probability 4-1 Review and Preview 4-2 Basic Concepts of Probability 4-3 Addition Rule 4-4 Multiplication Rule: Basics 4-5 Multiplication Rule: Complements and Conditional Probability 4-6 Counting 4-7 Probabilities Through Simulations 4-8 Bayes’ Theorem
  • 3. Section 4.3-‹#› Copyright © 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Key Concept This section presents the addition rule as a device for finding probabilities that can be expressed as P(A or B), the probability that either event A occurs or event B occurs (or they both occur) as the single outcome of the procedure. The key word in this section is “or.” It is the inclusive or, which means either one or the other or both.
  • 4. Section 4.3-‹#› Copyright © 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Compound Event any event combining 2 or more simple events Compound Event Notation P(A or B) = P(in a single trial, event A occurs or event B occurs or they both occur)
  • 5. Section 4.3-‹#› Copyright © 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. When finding the probability that event A occurs or event B occurs, find the total number of ways A can occur and the number of ways B can occur, but find that total in such a way that no outcome is counted more than once. General Rule for a Compound Event
  • 6. Section 4.3-‹#› Copyright © 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Compound Event Formal Addition Rule P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B) where P(A and B) denotes the probability that A and B both occur at the same time as an outcome in a trial of a procedure.
  • 7. Section 4.3-‹#› Copyright © 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Compound Event Intuitive Addition Rule To find P(A or B), find the sum of the number of ways event A can occur and the number of ways event B can occur, adding in such a way that every outcome is counted only once. P(A or B) is equal to that sum, divided by the total number of outcomes in the sample space.
  • 8. Section 4.3-‹#› Copyright © 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Disjoint or Mutually Exclusive Events A and B are disjoint (or mutually exclusive) if they cannot occur at the same time. (That is, disjoint events do not overlap.) Venn Diagram for Events That Are Not Disjoint Venn Diagram for Disjoint Events
  • 9. Section 4.3-‹#› Copyright © 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Complementary Events A and must be disjoint. It is impossible for an event and its complement to occur at the same time. A
  • 10. Section 4.3-‹#› Copyright © 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Rule of Complementary Events ( ) ( ) 1 P A P A   ( ) 1 ( ) P A P A   ( ) 1 ( ) P A P A  
  • 11. Section 4.3-‹#› Copyright © 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Venn Diagram for the Complement of Event A