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CCXG Webinar
Designing a sustainable COVID-19 recovery:
Perspectives from China
4 June 2020
Yue Dong, Research Fellow, Energy Foundation China
E N E R G Y F O U N D A T I O NE N E R G Y F O U N D A T I O NENERGY FOUNDATION CHINA2 CCXG: Designing a sustainable Covid-19 recovery: China
COVID-19 and China’s Economy in Numbers in Q1 2020
Source: China national bureau of statistics
Chinese epidemic outbreak mostly in Jan-Feb
• Demand-side consumption and investments still low:
• Per capita disposable income reduced 11% yoy, per capita expenditure reduced 17% yoy
• Sales of basic goods stable, but sales of department stores and non-essential goods reduced 25%-
35%, hotels and catering services -35%, automotive sales -22%, construction -17.5%
• International trade: A 63 b$ missing trade surplus compared to Q1 2019
• PMI for new export orders down at 33% (from 29% in Feb and 46% in March)
• Chinese GDP: -6.8% in Q1
Since March, economy restarted, people back at work, but global demand still low
Containment of COVID-19 created
economic challenges in Q1
• Production tools impacted but
mainly back at work now:
• Manufacturing value added fell -
9.4% in Q1, still at -5% in April
China
EU
US
100
1000
10000
100000
10-Jan
17-Jan
24-Jan
31-Jan
7-Feb
14-Feb
21-Feb
28-Feb
6-Mar
13-Mar
20-Mar
27-Mar
3-Apr
10-Apr
17-Apr
24-Apr
1-May
8-May
15-May
22-May
Number of daily cases
E N E R G Y F O U N D A T I O NE N E R G Y F O U N D A T I O NENERGY FOUNDATION CHINA3 CCXG: Designing a sustainable Covid-19 recovery: China
No GDP target for 2020
• priority on economic recovery: employment, poverty alleviation, consumption
Short-term rescue measures:
• Monetary measures; 280 b$ in bonds and earmarked budget to protect livelihood and stabilize employment; 350
b$ in tax cuts and extensions
Expand domestic demand and accelerate economic transformation:
• Investments objectives: consumption, structural adjustments and economic sustainability
• 530 b$ from bonds and 84 b$ from budget
• New infrastructures: information network and 5G, nEV charging stations,
• New urbanization: rural migration, renovations of 39 000 residential districts, modernization and improvement of
community services and urban amenities
• Large projects: transportation, water management, 14 b$ for railways
• Environmental protection: conventional pollution, waste management, nature conservation
• Energy security: “cleaner and more efficient coal”, RE, energy systems
Policy Update: Government Work Report at NPC
Source: Chinese government work report at NPC
E N E R G Y F O U N D A T I O NE N E R G Y F O U N D A T I O NENERGY FOUNDATION CHINA4 CCXG: Designing a sustainable Covid-19 recovery: China
Areas of work to take advantage of stimulus to accelerate the low-carbon transition
1. Future-oriented and green economic stimulus: invest in the future to helps accelerate
green structural transition of supply and demand
2. Foster green jobs and green skills: rescue people and support just transition
3. Economic and environmental impact assessment of stimulus measures and policies and
the 14FYP on economy, energy use, air quality and climate change
4. Environmental safeguards for investments
5. Reform sectors: take advantage of overcapacities and low energy demand
6. Establish ambitious targets for low-carbon transformation
Energy Foundation China sets up a Special Scheme to turn
this Crisis into Opportunity for the Green Transition
E N E R G Y F O U N D A T I O NE N E R G Y F O U N D A T I O NENERGY FOUNDATION CHINA5
Thank you

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CCXG Forum, June 2020, Yue Dong

  • 1. CCXG Webinar Designing a sustainable COVID-19 recovery: Perspectives from China 4 June 2020 Yue Dong, Research Fellow, Energy Foundation China
  • 2. E N E R G Y F O U N D A T I O NE N E R G Y F O U N D A T I O NENERGY FOUNDATION CHINA2 CCXG: Designing a sustainable Covid-19 recovery: China COVID-19 and China’s Economy in Numbers in Q1 2020 Source: China national bureau of statistics Chinese epidemic outbreak mostly in Jan-Feb • Demand-side consumption and investments still low: • Per capita disposable income reduced 11% yoy, per capita expenditure reduced 17% yoy • Sales of basic goods stable, but sales of department stores and non-essential goods reduced 25%- 35%, hotels and catering services -35%, automotive sales -22%, construction -17.5% • International trade: A 63 b$ missing trade surplus compared to Q1 2019 • PMI for new export orders down at 33% (from 29% in Feb and 46% in March) • Chinese GDP: -6.8% in Q1 Since March, economy restarted, people back at work, but global demand still low Containment of COVID-19 created economic challenges in Q1 • Production tools impacted but mainly back at work now: • Manufacturing value added fell - 9.4% in Q1, still at -5% in April China EU US 100 1000 10000 100000 10-Jan 17-Jan 24-Jan 31-Jan 7-Feb 14-Feb 21-Feb 28-Feb 6-Mar 13-Mar 20-Mar 27-Mar 3-Apr 10-Apr 17-Apr 24-Apr 1-May 8-May 15-May 22-May Number of daily cases
  • 3. E N E R G Y F O U N D A T I O NE N E R G Y F O U N D A T I O NENERGY FOUNDATION CHINA3 CCXG: Designing a sustainable Covid-19 recovery: China No GDP target for 2020 • priority on economic recovery: employment, poverty alleviation, consumption Short-term rescue measures: • Monetary measures; 280 b$ in bonds and earmarked budget to protect livelihood and stabilize employment; 350 b$ in tax cuts and extensions Expand domestic demand and accelerate economic transformation: • Investments objectives: consumption, structural adjustments and economic sustainability • 530 b$ from bonds and 84 b$ from budget • New infrastructures: information network and 5G, nEV charging stations, • New urbanization: rural migration, renovations of 39 000 residential districts, modernization and improvement of community services and urban amenities • Large projects: transportation, water management, 14 b$ for railways • Environmental protection: conventional pollution, waste management, nature conservation • Energy security: “cleaner and more efficient coal”, RE, energy systems Policy Update: Government Work Report at NPC Source: Chinese government work report at NPC
  • 4. E N E R G Y F O U N D A T I O NE N E R G Y F O U N D A T I O NENERGY FOUNDATION CHINA4 CCXG: Designing a sustainable Covid-19 recovery: China Areas of work to take advantage of stimulus to accelerate the low-carbon transition 1. Future-oriented and green economic stimulus: invest in the future to helps accelerate green structural transition of supply and demand 2. Foster green jobs and green skills: rescue people and support just transition 3. Economic and environmental impact assessment of stimulus measures and policies and the 14FYP on economy, energy use, air quality and climate change 4. Environmental safeguards for investments 5. Reform sectors: take advantage of overcapacities and low energy demand 6. Establish ambitious targets for low-carbon transformation Energy Foundation China sets up a Special Scheme to turn this Crisis into Opportunity for the Green Transition
  • 5. E N E R G Y F O U N D A T I O NE N E R G Y F O U N D A T I O NENERGY FOUNDATION CHINA5 Thank you