Lamar Van Dusen - The Economic Recovery and Growth Plan after a pandemic. Lamar Van Dusen is a professional and he is great business development.

1. THE ECONOMIC RECOVERY AND GROWTH
PLAN AFTER PANDEMIC
Lamar Van Dusen

2. OUTLINE OF THE PRESENTATION
1. Introduction and Background
2. What drives the transmission of the COVID 19
pandemic to the Nigerian economy
3. Economic Implications of COVID 19 Pandemic in Nigeria
4. Minimising the Impact of COVID 19
5. The Future we desire
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3. INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
• First case of COVID 19 in Nigeria was February 27, 2020 and it was
imported
• The types of uncertainty and economic hocks associated with the illness
had been unprecedented
• The pandemic has reminded us of
• Global health security
• weaknesses in health systems, social protection and public services.
• Weakness of the economic systems and dependence on social systems
• Laying bare the way in which the formal economy of developing countries including
Nigeria has been sustained on the back of an informal economy and invisible and
unpaid care labour.
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4. NUMBER OF COVID 19 DAILY CONFIRMED CASES,
27 FEBRUARY – 25 MARCH 2020
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Source: NCDC (2020) COVID-19 Situation Report: Situation Report 87, Monday, 25th May 2020

5. 2333,078
2,311
39,103
5,524
57,252
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Nigeria
Africa
COVID 19 Statistics in Nigeria and Africa, 25 May
2020
Death Recovered Active
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6. WHAT DRIVES THE TRANSMISSION OF THE COVID 19
PANDEMIC TO THE NIGERIAN ECONOMY
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COVID 19 Pandemic
Effect
Policy Response to
the Pandemic Effect
Globalisation effect

7. DIRECT EFFECTS OF THE COVID 19 ILLNESS ON
INDIVIDUALS
AGE-SEX DISTRIBUTION OF CONFIRMED CASES (WK9 – WK22)
Source: NCDC (2020) COVID-19 Situation Report: Situation Report 87, Monday, 25th May 2020
• Loss of
Productivity and
production
• Most of the
affected persons
falls within the
working age
population
• 76% of the
confirmed cases
are between 20
and 60 years old
• 68% are male
while 32% are
female

8. DIRECT EFFECTS OF THE COVID 19 ILLNESS ON
INDIVIDUALS
AGE-SEX DISTRIBUTION OF CONFIRMED CASES (WK9 – WK22)
28/09/2020
8
Source: NCDC (2020) COVID-19 Situation Report: Situation Report 87, Monday, 25th May 2020
• Cost of health system
strengthening due to
the pandemic
• Cost of testing,
treatment and
isolation
• Opportunity costs of
diverting resources
from other health
needs
• Direct and indirect
costs to the patient
(morbidity and
mortality costs)
• Attendant
implications of loss
of income, livelihood
and possible poverty

9. RESPONSE TO COVID 19 ACROSS COUNTRIES
HAD BEEN SIMILAR…
• Setting up of Pandemic Task forces
• Lockdown of cities and settlements
• Closure of Schools, Markets and Businesses
• Travel Bans and Social distancing
• Personal hygiene and Community Hygiene
• Testing, Isolation and Quarantines
• Search for drugs and vaccine
• All these come with attendant risks and uncertainty

10. ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF COVID 19 PANDEMIC IN
NIGERIA
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Economic
Effects of
COVID-19
Pandemic
Microeconomic Effects
• Firm closures and staff leaves
• Income
• Job/unemployment and loss of
productivity
• Consumption/welfare/poverty
• Human capital ( Health and
educational status)Status
Macroeconomic effects
• Economic Growth and sectoral
production)
• Public finance effects
• Exchange rates effects
• Export & import activities
(Trade effects)
• Financial market effects (Stock
markets, inflation etc.)

11. MICROECONOMIC EFFECTS
Firm closures
and staff leaves
Income
Job/
unemployment
and loss of
productivity
Consumption/
welfare/
poverty
Human capital
(Health and
education)
Status
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12. Macroeconomic effects
Economic
Growth and
sectoral
production)
Public finance
effects
Exchange
rates effects
Export &
import
activities
(Trade
effects)
Financial
market
effects (Stock
markets,
inflation etc.)
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13. MINIMISING THE ECONOMIC
IMPACT OF THE PANDEMIC
1. Deal with the pandemic itself to reduce the numbers
2. Provide palliatives to individuals and businesses to lift
them up from the merry clay
a) Vulnerable households
b) Vulnerable businesses
c) Vulnerable jobs
3. Macroeconomic stability and global partnerships
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14. MINIMISING THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF
THE PANDEMIC
• Economic activities must re-start in a way to drive economic growth.
• Note that he policies of the COVID 19 era has shut down many economies
and economic activity. Economic slowdown is inevitable
• How will individuals key into this? There must be ability to consume
• How will businesses key into this? Closed businesses must open and have
ability to produce and distribute.
• Change the cost structure to reduce the cost of doing business
substantially
• Find ways of increasing turnover and revenue
• Credit/Loan restructuring
• Financial stimulus to businesses
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15. MINIMISING THE ECONOMIC
IMPACT OF THE PANDEMIC
• How will government key into this? Ability to provide
enabling environment
• Palliatives to the businesses
• Palliatives to the people
• Clear structural transformation strategy
implementation
• Different sectors might require different strategy
• Aviation, Agriculture, Health, Education, Oil and Gas etc.
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16. GLOBALISATION ISSUES…
• Economics of global governance
• Debt and Aid Structure, Restructuring and
Sustainability
• Foreign resource flows and global politics
• Economics of Drugs and Vaccine Development
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17. THE FUTURE WE DESIRE:
• The post COVID era must not jettison what currently
works…
• The philosophy for economic recovery after COVID 19 era
must rest on two existing trans national agenda and
rigorous local agenda/vision
• Sustainable Development Goals
• Agenda 2063
• The Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP)
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18. And then the Sustainable Development Goals…
• 17 Goals, 169 Targets, 230 Indicators
The issue of people, places, planet, prosperity
and peace will continue to shape the
behaviour of the world

19. Environmental
Sustainability:
Goals 6,7,13,14&15
Social Sustainability:
Goals 1,2,3,4,5,10&11
Economic
Sustainability:
Goals 8,9,12&17
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Cardinal Issues are always the same…
Goal 16 is
cross-cutting

20. THE AFRICA WE WANT…
• An integrated, prosperous and peaceful Africa, driven by
its own citizens and representing a dynamic force
in International arena”
• African Agenda 2063
• A strategic framework for the socio-economic transformation of
the continent over the next 50 years.
• It builds on, and seeks to accelerate the implementation of past,
existing and new national, regional and continental initiatives for
transformative, inclusive real growth with equity, rapid, resilient
and sustainable socio-economic development.
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21. NIGERIA’S PLAN: THE ECONOMIC
RECOVERY AND GROWTH PLAN
(ERGP)
 This is a Medium Term Plan for 2017 – 2020,
 Developed for the purpose of restoring economic growth while
leveraging the ingenuity and resilience of the Nigerian people – the
nation’s most priceless assets
 The Vision of the ERGP
 The vision of the ERGP is one of sustained inclusive growth. There is an
urgent need as a nation to drive a structural economic transformation
with an emphasis on improving both public and private sector efficiency.

22. CONCLUSION
• This post COVID era is the time of understanding how
connected everyone and every discipline is
• Health issues goes beyond what only health practitioners can
handle
• Economic Issues goes beyond what only economists can
handle
• The interconnectedness calls for a multisectoral and
multidisciplinary mind-set approach to issues.
• The Digital revolution is here and massive investment and
production activities will drive economies of nations
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23. A POST COVID 19 ERA FOR ECONOMICS AND
ECONOMIST SHOULD BE ONE WHERE THERE IS
…
• A strong sense of ownership among people at the grassroots level,
who are often the ones left the furthest behind,
• A strong sense of responsibility among businesses and other
economic actors, firms and governments at all levels.
• realization that the SDGs are about our daily lives and that we all
have a stake and a role in implementing them.
• Economic, social and political governance has to be aligned for
economic reliance and sustainability
• In all these: No one must be left behind
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Thank you for your attention.