Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Wilkinson oecd research needs

Expert Workshop on Adaptation Financing and Implementation, Putting Priorities into Practice in OECD Countries, Paris, 18-19 June, 2014

  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Wilkinson oecd research needs

  2. 2. An emerging policy agenda: new economic challenges • Connect challenges • Cross scale interactions • Distributions matter (not an averages world) • Multi-dimensional policy frameworks: • Analysis of policy trade-offs, synergies • Attention to policy alignment and coherence • Big Data? • Quality of anticipation: one future or many? Implications for climate adaptation research, tools and methods? Ref: OECD NAEC Initiative
  3. 3. Questions that frame choice of methods and tools? • Meta framing: – What is the nature of the universe (material and mechanistic, living universe)? – Is the nature of the climate change adaptation challenge a wicked-problem, requiring post normal science? – Is policy only concerned with the resource limitations of the current economic model, “the collision with nature”? Or are we concerned with the broader issue of redefining progress i.e. a new narrative beyond growth? • Process design: – Is ‘our’ objective to find tools and methods to evolve a comprehensive road map that could provide a blueprint of steps and efforts needed to adapt to the global challenges (top-down) or to develop new approaches to the problems of human development (bottom up). Or to mash different systems perspectives? – What is the policy making process; who are the policy stakeholders; do new tools and methods imply a redesign of the existing process and practices? • Decision support: – What economic theory do we have to deal with the adaptation challenge: economics of stability/equilibrium or economics of innovation/resilience/transformation? – Is there a new economic accord: something after the Washington Consensus frame of good policy? • Can an emphasis on ‘what works’ avoid instrumentalism and policy ‘lock in’? – It is possible to avoid the trap of over-relying on deterministic causal logics to engage deep uncertainty and thus identify new opportunities and threats? – What new ‘recipes’ are acceptable to policymakers: can we inform safe-fail approaches? – How to take on new agendas – anti-fragility, resilience
  4. 4. Foresight: one future or many? • Adaption requires actionable foresight: anticipatory knowledge, adaptive capacity and improvisation – Connection deficits (policy silos, vested interests) – Emerging risk governance – Policy innovation and prototyping: learning-by-doing – Causes effects and is an ontological aspect of living systems – Worldview shift: from stability and variability to flow and temporary – Future as cultural ‘fact’ – imagination, anticipation, inspiration • Futures methods and tools are diverse, but mastery with mixed methods is rare! – Horizon scanning, scenarios, visioning and back casting – Many different types of models and approached to modelling: formal models, clay modelling, soft and hard systems thinking – Big Data, narrative analytics, evolutionary models are reshaping the toolkit • Foresight-into-policy is a social process; users and uses matter – Different starting points, not a ‘one-size-fits-all’ world – Purposes vary: restore or transform the ‘system’ reflect different future ontologies – Avoiding the implementation gap: purposeful design and co-creation/-production logics are key – Take care: clarify notions of what is meant by ‘strategy’ and ‘policy’ processes and identify links • Scenarios – a misunderstood approach but offer huge potential – Ontological role of scenarios – generating, representing, curating to narrating knowledge – Diversity within scenarios: • Realist futures (conjectural, Bell); • Constructivist futures (knowledge connected to communities, coproduced in interaction, Dator) – Reframing role: epistemic security from paradigms to reflexivity, from evidence to sensitivity, knowledge about futures to relationships with futures – Exposing deeply held assumptions by working with a manageable set of alternative futures – Social processes for forging new common ground that engages and respects differences – Narrative and numbers – Platforms for building social capital and developing new strategic vocabulary OECD Strategic Foresight Upgrade
  5. 5. Deeper assumptions/shifting worldviews: the futures of the science system! Source: ICSU International Science in 2031 (2011) Success scenario/vision: • Responding to societal challenges is a key part of research agendas • Science is thriving and appreciated in all its diversity • Broadening the disciplinary base • Public appreciation and engagement have become integral to the way science operates • Scientific integrity helps ensure public trust • New mechanisms for planning and managing science • Policy-making is more participatory and open with science making a valued contribution • Scientific capability and resources are a truly global asset