What are scenarios and how can they be helpful for thinking about agriculture and food security in the future? John Ingram & Andrew Ainslie ECI Oxford UK. CCAFS Regional Scenarios Workshops, 2010
The document summarizes efforts to map and align investments by the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) and the CGIAR. It presents a prototype database to characterize and index agricultural investments by theme, location, commodity, and other attributes. The prototype allows users to search, compare and relate different investments. It finds that investment plans vary in detail and terminology, but a standardized process can improve data harmonization. The way forward includes gaining stakeholder buy-in, expanding the technical support team, and establishing implementation guidelines and best practices.
This document summarizes discussions around enhancing alignment between investments planned through CAADP and CGIAR programs. A technical platform is being developed to map and align these investments spatially. The platform will allow users to search for R&D demands and opportunities, compare national and CGIAR investment plans, and identify gaps. Challenges include varying levels of investment detail provided and non-standard terminology between documents. Efforts are underway to tag investments by theme and location to improve search and matching. Expanding the technical support team and establishing data sharing agreements will help advance the platform.
Food systems, food security and environmental changeIIED
This is a presentation given by Dr John Ingram of Oxford University's Environmental Change Institute (ECI) to a Critical Theme organised by the International Institute for Environment and Development on 12 February 2015.
Dr Ingram leads the Environmental Change Institute's Food Systems Research and Training Programme, which aims to increase understanding of the interactions between food security and environmental change. The programme's research products have been adopted by national and international organisations, including the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), and the UK and Dutch governments.
In his presentation, Ingram looked at food system activities and 'planetary boundaries' – the safe operating space for humanity with respect to the earth's biophysical systems. If these planetary boundaries are crossed, then important subsystems, such as a monsoon system, could shift into a new state. Such shifts could have damaging consequences, including undermining the environmental conditions and the natural resource base on which our food security depends.
IIED hosts Critical Themes meetings to explore new ideas, introduce new research and broaden the knowledge of its staff.
More details: bit.ly/1CkRJ9K.
This document discusses the importance of proactively addressing social license in the agriculture industry from the perspective of the Canadian Roundtable for Sustainable Beef. It notes that social license is the privilege to operate with minimal formal restrictions and that a lack of transparency results in distrust. Maintaining social license is important for regulations, consumer trust, purchasing, risk mitigation and conscious capitalism. The document outlines the Canadian Roundtable for Sustainable Beef's work on developing sustainability assessments, indicators and verification processes. It provides an example indicator and discusses preparing farmers to tell the story of sustainable beef production practices.
This document discusses a pilot project to identify potential food safety risks in a proactive manner. The project studied risks related to pesticide use by reviewing scientific literature and EU projects. It identified drivers of change like climate change and economic crises that could increase pesticide use. Through horizon scanning, the project mapped weak signals and wild cards related to pesticides, like unintended nano-pesticide consequences or gene transfer from transgenic plants. Five weak signals and five wild cards with higher correlation to evaluated drivers were selected and entered into a database. The conclusions state that emerging risks identification requires a structured, forward-looking approach including analyzing drivers, developing scenarios, and identifying and interpreting weak signals linked to potential scenarios.
1) The NGO Food Assistance Germany relocated its warehouse from Rheinbach to Berlin to improve disaster response logistics.
2) The Berlin warehouse location reduces total response time to 6 hours, is closer to an international airport and major shipping port, and requires less international border crossings when responding to disasters.
3) With the new location, the NGO can now plan and begin response operations within 24 hours of a disaster being reported compared to previously requiring over 25 hours of travel time.
The document summarizes efforts to map and align investments by the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) and the CGIAR. It presents a prototype database to characterize and index agricultural investments by theme, location, commodity, and other attributes. The prototype allows users to search, compare and relate different investments. It finds that investment plans vary in detail and terminology, but a standardized process can improve data harmonization. The way forward includes gaining stakeholder buy-in, expanding the technical support team, and establishing implementation guidelines and best practices.
This document summarizes discussions around enhancing alignment between investments planned through CAADP and CGIAR programs. A technical platform is being developed to map and align these investments spatially. The platform will allow users to search for R&D demands and opportunities, compare national and CGIAR investment plans, and identify gaps. Challenges include varying levels of investment detail provided and non-standard terminology between documents. Efforts are underway to tag investments by theme and location to improve search and matching. Expanding the technical support team and establishing data sharing agreements will help advance the platform.
Food systems, food security and environmental changeIIED
This is a presentation given by Dr John Ingram of Oxford University's Environmental Change Institute (ECI) to a Critical Theme organised by the International Institute for Environment and Development on 12 February 2015.
Dr Ingram leads the Environmental Change Institute's Food Systems Research and Training Programme, which aims to increase understanding of the interactions between food security and environmental change. The programme's research products have been adopted by national and international organisations, including the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), and the UK and Dutch governments.
In his presentation, Ingram looked at food system activities and 'planetary boundaries' – the safe operating space for humanity with respect to the earth's biophysical systems. If these planetary boundaries are crossed, then important subsystems, such as a monsoon system, could shift into a new state. Such shifts could have damaging consequences, including undermining the environmental conditions and the natural resource base on which our food security depends.
IIED hosts Critical Themes meetings to explore new ideas, introduce new research and broaden the knowledge of its staff.
More details: bit.ly/1CkRJ9K.
This document discusses the importance of proactively addressing social license in the agriculture industry from the perspective of the Canadian Roundtable for Sustainable Beef. It notes that social license is the privilege to operate with minimal formal restrictions and that a lack of transparency results in distrust. Maintaining social license is important for regulations, consumer trust, purchasing, risk mitigation and conscious capitalism. The document outlines the Canadian Roundtable for Sustainable Beef's work on developing sustainability assessments, indicators and verification processes. It provides an example indicator and discusses preparing farmers to tell the story of sustainable beef production practices.
This document discusses a pilot project to identify potential food safety risks in a proactive manner. The project studied risks related to pesticide use by reviewing scientific literature and EU projects. It identified drivers of change like climate change and economic crises that could increase pesticide use. Through horizon scanning, the project mapped weak signals and wild cards related to pesticides, like unintended nano-pesticide consequences or gene transfer from transgenic plants. Five weak signals and five wild cards with higher correlation to evaluated drivers were selected and entered into a database. The conclusions state that emerging risks identification requires a structured, forward-looking approach including analyzing drivers, developing scenarios, and identifying and interpreting weak signals linked to potential scenarios.
1) The NGO Food Assistance Germany relocated its warehouse from Rheinbach to Berlin to improve disaster response logistics.
2) The Berlin warehouse location reduces total response time to 6 hours, is closer to an international airport and major shipping port, and requires less international border crossings when responding to disasters.
3) With the new location, the NGO can now plan and begin response operations within 24 hours of a disaster being reported compared to previously requiring over 25 hours of travel time.
Considerations for AAS CRP Impact Evaluation - Workshop on Strengthening Imp...WorldFish
1) The document discusses various evaluation strategies and designs that can be used to evaluate natural resource management programs and projects, including the performance logic chain evaluation, impact evaluation, rapid appraisals, and case studies.
2) It then focuses on outlining considerations for evaluating the impact of the CGIAR Research Program on Aquatic Agricultural Systems, including defining intermediate development outcomes and hub-level challenges in different geographic locations.
3) Finally, it discusses using a variety of evaluation designs, such as experimental, statistical, theory-based, case-based, and participatory approaches, to answer different types of evaluation questions for the program.
The document discusses the development of decision support tools to help prioritize climate-smart agriculture investments and actions. It outlines the need for such tools from governments and donors to move beyond lists of options to identify portfolios of practices. The proposed prioritization tool would use a climate-smart agriculture compendium database and indicators to assess tradeoffs between options across social, economic and environmental dimensions. The tool development process is participatory and aimed at identifying best-bet climate-smart agriculture portfolios for specific contexts through pilots in 2014.
1. The workshop objectives are to: identify how large-scale data is used for policymaking in Gulf education, identify areas of educational policy interest, and develop recommendations for using large-scale data in Gulf education policymaking.
2. The document discusses how large-scale education data from international assessments can help identify strengths and weaknesses in Gulf countries' educational performance and inform policy reforms, but this data is currently underutilized.
3. Recommendations focus on building infrastructure, capacity, and sustainability to create a culture where large-scale education data guides evidence-based policymaking and improves Gulf students' achievement over time.
CGIAR and IFAD: Sharing and Scaling up Innovations?ILRI
Presented by Thomas Randolph (ILRI), Peter Ballantyne (ILRI), Nicole Lefore (IWMI), Barbara Rischkowsky (ICARDA) at the IFAD ESA Regional Workshop, Addis Ababa, 15 November 2012
This document outlines CCAFS's strategy for climate services. It has four objectives: 1) local risk management to build resilient rural livelihoods, 2) improved food system risk management to enhance food security, 3) providing climate information and services to support food security and rural livelihoods, and 4) integration for decision making. CCAFS aims to identify adaptation practices for agriculture, support inclusion of agriculture in climate policies, and enhance adaptive capacity. It works to develop climate information, assess risks, support services, and foster effective use of information through projects in locations like Kenya, Senegal, India, and Mali. CCAFS fills research gaps and bridges climate information providers and agricultural decision-makers.
Partnerships for Scaling Climate Smart Agriculture in Africa and AsiaCIAT
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Linking experiences between LAM, Africa, & AsiaCIAT
This document provides an overview of efforts to link experiences with climate-smart agriculture (CSA) between Latin America, Africa, and Asia. It discusses CSA and the Partnerships for Scaling CSA (P4S) project, which aims to develop frameworks for CSA planning and implementation, including the CSA-Plan methodology. CSA-Plan is a multi-step guide for scaling up CSA through stakeholder engagement, capacity building, investment prioritization, and monitoring and evaluation. The document outlines country-level applications of CSA-Plan in vulnerability assessment, prioritization of practices, and development of CSA country programs and implementation guides. It also discusses challenges in monitoring CSA impacts and developing appropriate metrics and sampling
The document outlines challenges and priorities for agriculture in the Caribbean region. Key challenges include high food import bills, climate change impacts, and lack of investment. Priority areas of intervention are identified as food and nutrition security, disaster risk management and climate change adaptation, small scale agriculture, and agricultural health and food safety. A collaborative, multi-stakeholder approach is advocated to address the issues.
CCAFS works to support agricultural adaptation to and mitigation of climate change through four themes: adaptation to progressive climate change, managing climate risk, pro-poor climate change mitigation, and integration for decision making. It conducts place-based field and policy work in several world regions. Some results include tools for seasonal forecast delivery, climate analogue identification, and GHG emissions estimation. CCAFS also works on policy issues like mainstreaming climate into development plans and identifying incentives for climate action in agriculture.
This presentation is about the first year of the Community and Regional Food Systems project, which is a USDA-funded research project focused on determining the characteristics and functions of a healthy local/regional food system and how they contribute to increased community food security.
This presentation was originally presented at the 6th Annual Wisconsin Local Food Summit by Lindsey Day Farnsworth and Anne Pfeiffer of UW-Madison.
This document outlines a project to mainstream climate-smart cocoa in Ghana. The project aims to (1) map climate risk for cocoa regions, (2) develop and test climate-smart agriculture practices along a climate gradient, and (3) integrate suitable practices into extension services and financing models to drive adoption at scale. The project consortium includes CIAT, IITA, Rainforest Alliance, Root Capital, and Sustainable Food Lab. Initial climate change exposure mapping shows cocoa suitability decreasing in northern Ghana by 2050 and increasing in central areas, with some regions more vulnerable than others. The project expects to identify appropriate adaptation strategies and incentives to promote widespread adoption of climate-smart cocoa.
The document summarizes a presentation given by Ann McGregor of Technip and Doug Upchurch of Insights about lessons learned from culture change efforts at a global oil company. The presentation discusses how organizational culture and climate are related, and how sustained changes to climate can create lasting culture change. It also provides an overview of Technip's "Pulse" program, which used tools like surveys, leadership training, and communication initiatives to foster a culture where safety is the top priority. Practical tips are shared for how other organizations can successfully drive culture change through understanding current culture, leadership alignment, branding, and experiential learning.
The Accelerating Impact of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA) project works to deliver a climate-smart African future driven by science and innovation in agriculture.
AICCRA does this by enhancing access to climate information services and climate-smart agricultural technology to millions of smallholder farmers in Africa.
With better access to climate technology and advisory services—linked to information about effective response measures—farmers can better anticipate climate-related events and take preventative action that help communities better safeguard their livelihoods and the environment.
AICCRA is supported by a grant from the International Development Association (IDA) of the World Bank, which is used to enhance research and capacity-building activities by the CGIAR centers and initiatives as well as their partners in Africa.
About IDA: IDA helps the world’s poorest countries by providing grants and low to zero-interest loans for projects and programmes that boost economic growth, reduce poverty, and improve poor people’s lives.
IDA is one of the largest sources of assistance for the world’s 76 poorest countries, 39 of which are in Africa.
Annual IDA commitments have averaged about $21 billion over circa 2017-2020, with approximately 61 percent going to Africa.
This presentation was given on 27 October 2021 by Mengpin Ge, Global Climate Program Associate at WRI, during the webinar "Achieving NDC Ambition in Agriculture" organized by CCAFS, FAO and WRI.
Find the recording and more information here: https://bit.ly/AchievingNDCs
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This document discusses linking experiences with climate-smart agriculture (CSA) between Latin America, Africa, and Asia. It provides an overview of CSA and the Partnerships for Scaling CSA (P4S) project, which aims to develop frameworks for CSA planning and implementation through its CSA-Plan methodology. CSA-Plan is a multi-step guide for scaling up CSA through stakeholder engagement, capacity building, investment portfolios, programming design, monitoring and evaluation, and knowledge sharing. The document outlines tools developed under CSA-Plan, including for vulnerability and impact assessments, prioritizing practices, developing country programs, and indicators for monitoring CSA outcomes. It emphasizes the importance of partnerships across different organizations
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This document provides an overview of efforts to link experiences with climate-smart agriculture (CSA) between Latin America, Africa, and Asia. It discusses CSA and the Partnerships for Scaling CSA (P4S) project, which aims to develop frameworks for CSA planning and implementation, including the CSA-Plan methodology. CSA-Plan is a multi-step guide for scaling up CSA through stakeholder engagement, capacity building, investment prioritization, and monitoring and evaluation. The document outlines country-level applications of CSA-Plan in vulnerability assessment, prioritization of practices, and development of CSA country programs and implementation guides. It also discusses challenges in monitoring CSA impacts and developing appropriate metrics and sampling
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Developing CCAFS Scenarios - Ingram & Ainslie
1. Developing CCAFS Scenarios
What are scenarios and how can they be
helpful for thinking about agriculture and food
security in the future?
John Ingram & Andrew Ainslie
ECI Oxford UK
2. Agricultural development and food
security in the future?
• Over 1 billion people go to bed hungry every day.
• What are the key drivers for future food security?
– Population growth
– Economic growth and available income
– Technologies/practices to produce food
– Food system governance
– Climate change and other environmental changes
– Trade policies
– Diets and cultural practices around food
– …
3. Why look into the future of agriculture and
food security?
• For strategic planning and decision-making based on expected
outcomes and the trade-offs they imply
• For directing scientific exploration and research
• For raising awareness among policy-makers and other
stakeholders of future climate and food security issues
• But we need to consider both the sources and level of
uncertainty in future drivers, and the causality of changes.
4. Sources of uncertainty when thinking
about the future
Ignorance
Understanding is limited
Surprise
The unexpected and the novel can
alter directions and feedbacks
Volition
Human choice matters
Source: P. Raskin
5. How to address uncertainty of future agriculture
and food security?
Depends on:
- what we know about causalities in a system, and
- the level of (un)certainty about future driving forces.
unknown
Speculation
Facts
Projections
known
low Uncertainty high
Source: Based on EEA (2005)
6. What are Scenarios?
Scenario development and analysis is an approach to have a structured
discussion / assessment of an uncertain future at a specified spatial and
temporal level(s)
Scenarios are plausible and often simplified descriptions of how the future
may develop, based on:
• an internally consistent set of assumptions about key driving forces and
relationships
• incorporating new factors and alternative human choices
• analyses using both words and numbers.
Source: various
Scenarios are not predictions, forecasts or projections.
7. How do scenarios analyses help?
Strategic Planning / Decision Support
• to gather different views and to identify issues
• to frame strategic issues and to identify alternatives to support policy
development
Science / Research (quantitative and qualitative)
• to integrate information from different fields, scales and levels
• to explore plausible developments
Engagement
• to raise awareness among policy-makers and other stakeholders of
future climate and food security issues
• to engage civil society, organisations and citizens
8. Successful scenarios analyses...
use an appropriate combination of qualitative (e.g. storylines)
and quantitative (e.g. modelling) approaches
combine scientific rigour with creativity
enhance research and policy agendas
are tailor-made to meet the goals of the scenario exercise!
9. CCAFS Goal
to promote a food-secure world through the provision of
science-based efforts that support sustainable agriculture
and enhance livelihoods while adapting to climate
change and conserving natural resources and
environmental services.
CCAFS scenarios help address this goal by:
• Improving communication between stakeholders
• Setting boundaries for analyses
• Identifying commonality between CCAFS regions
10. CCAFS Regional Scenarios
questions
1. What are the plausible future changes in environmental and
socioeconomic conditions that will affect agriculture and food
security?
2. What elements of global scenarios are most important for
regional-level food security analyses?
3. How can local actors best be heard at regional and international
levels?
11. Important considerations in the CCAFS
regional scenarios exercise
• Who are the key stakeholders => participation
• How to maximize stakeholder engagement => buy-in
• What are the main areas of uncertainty => focal questions
• What are the main drivers of change => nature of storylines
• What is the optimum qual/quant combination => degree of
quantification
• What are the scenario implications => adaptation options
• How to optimize communication and learning => impact
12. Proposed steps
Step 1: Identify key regional technical and policy issues through
stakeholder consultation workshops involving CCAFS researchers
and other regional stakeholders including policymakers, the
private sector and civil society.
Step 2: Engage in strategic conversation(s) with stakeholders in
each region to refine the range of questions which the scenarios
exercises need to address by consultancies; 1-to-1s; …
Step 3: Assemble regional teams to draft sets of regional
storylines, based on agreed global drivers, but allowing for
regional deviation as needed.
13. Proposed steps (cont)
Step 4: Describe, systematically assess, plot and compare
developments per scenario for key agriculture and food
security outcomes in expert workshops.
Step 5: Quantify developments per scenario for key
agriculture and food security outcomes in modelling
workshops.
Step 6: Facilitate interactions and learning between the
three regional scenarios teams and explore links to global
through interregional workshops.
Step 7: Institute procedures to evaluate and learn from the
scenarios activity by commissioning review and assessment
of the scenario process.
14. Example regional scenarios exercise
food security focus
World Development
Globalization Regionalization
• Global Caribbean
Reactive
Environmental Management
• Caribbean Order
from Strength
Global Orchestration Order from Strength
• Caribbean
TechnoGarden
Proactive
• Caribbean
Adapting Mosaic
TechnoGarden Adapting Mosaic
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2006)
15. Analysis of Food Security Outcomes
COMPONENTS & Elements
Food Security, i.e. stability over time for:
FOOD FOOD
UTILISATION ACCESS
•Nutritional Value •Affordability
•Social Value •Allocation
•Food Safety •Preference
FOOD
AVAILABILITY
•Production
•Distribution
•Exchange
16. Assessing Food Systems OUTCOMES
Assessments plotted based on FS concepts
Global
per scenario Caribbean
Production
Increase
++
Food Safety Distribution
+
0 Caribbean Order
Decrease From Strength
_
Social Value Inter-Regional
__
Exchange
Caribbean
TechnoGarden
Nutritional Intra-Regional
Value Exchange
Caribbean
Preference Affordability
Adapting Mosaic
Allocation
Source: GECAFS (2006) Prototype Scenarios for the Caribbean. GECAFS Rpt 2.
17. Hypothetical Trade-offs in a Policy Decision
to Expand Cropland in a Forested Area
Indicators range from 0 to 1 for low to high value of service.
After DeFries et al.
In: Ecosystems and Land Use Change, 2005
18. How to quantify and assess very
different types of variables to
understand and communicate tradeoffs?
Afforestation policy Soil carbon content
2
Food exchange 1 Forest cover
0
-1
Food local production -2 Species richness
-3
Food nutritional value Groundwater recharge
Food affordability GHG mitigation
19. Outputs
Sets of scenarios that are coherent with global assumptions to
ca. 2030 for each target region, and which reflect plausible
agriculture and food security development pathways under
changing climate at local and regional levels.
Teams of regional and national stakeholders identified and
mobilized to undertake Program adaptation and mitigation
research.
Concepts and methods, reports, maps and policy briefs and other
interactive activities that can be used to engage the other themes
of CCAFS, other Programs of the CGIAR, and other stakeholders in
research design, delivery and analysis.
20. Anticipated Outcomes
boundaries for regional adaptation analyses
conditions within which adaptation strategies can be
devised
shared vision, understanding and trust within multi-
stakeholder regional teams
science-practice-policy understanding and communication
comparisons between CCAFS regions
interactions across CCAFS Themes
refined scenarios methodology.
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