Globally, 2020 was the hottest year on record, effectively tying 2016, the previous record. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the amount of CO2 in the air in May 2020 hits an average of slightly greater than 417 parts per million (ppm), the highest monthly average value ever recorded. What we need now is a new era of development - a development that is forceful and at the same time socially and environmentally sustainable. If we fail to follow it, we will follow the failure of humanity through a systematic extinction instead of development and well-being.

1. CARBON EMISSION OR GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT: WHICH SHOULD
BE CONSIDERED FIRST?
Course # 510: Low Carbon and Resilient Development
ID-57 Abul Hasnat Muhammad Mofazzal Karim

2. Introduction
• “The world is entering a new geologic epoch, sometimes called the Anthropocene, in
which human activities will largely control the evolution of Earth's environment. Carbon
emissions during this century will essentially determine the magnitude of eventual
impacts and whether the Anthropocene is a short- term, relatively minor change from
the current climate or an extreme deviation that lasts thousands of years.” (National
Research Council, 2011).
• Globally, 2020 was the hottest year on record, effectively tying 2016, the previous
record. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the
amount of CO2 in the air in May 2020 hits an average of slightly greater than 417 parts
per million (ppm), the highest monthly average value ever recorded.
• The rising temperatures of both the atmosphere and oceans are altering worldwide
weather patterns while there is a strong link between Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions,
prosperity and standards of living as the correlation between real GDP, energy
consumption, and carbon emissions are very tight.
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3. SLOW YET SIGNIFICANT
DEBACLE
• “The past few decades have
been warmer than any other
comparable period for at least
the last 400 years, and possibly
for the last 1,000 years or
longer” (National Research
Council, 2010).
• Continuing the planet’s long-
term warming trend, 2020’s
globally averaged
temperature was 1.84 degrees
Fahrenheit (1.02 degrees
Celsius) warmer than the
baseline 1951-1980 mean
Global Temperature Anomaly
Source: NASA, Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)

4. CONTEMPORARY
CLIMATE CHANGE IS
FUELED PRIMARILY BY
HUMAN INFLUENCE
• While greenhouse gases exist
in the atmosphere naturally,
human activity, particularly
since the start of the industrial
age in roughly 1850, has
increased the concentrations
of carbon dioxide (CO2),
which has increased
principally due to greater fossil
fuel use since the industrial
revolution and from
deforestation.
• Emissions have continued to
proliferate; we now emit over
36 billion tonnes each year.
Global CO2 Emission Trend (1800-2019)
Source: Global Carbon Project

5. What is Coming Next?
• The Arctic was previously considered a carbon sink, a very
recent study terrifyingly finds melting permafrost could unleash
way more carbon than we thought. It is estimated that the
world’s permafrost contains up to 1,700 billion tonnes of
carbon, which is almost double the amount of carbon in the
Earth's atmosphere and four times more than what has already
been emitted by humans since the Industrial Revolution.
Patzner et al. (2020) has shown that the melting Arctic may
unleash far more carbon than even our worst-case models
have predicted.

6. Who Contributes to
CO2 Emission?
• Until well into the 20th century,
global emissions were
dominated by Europe and the
United States. In 1900, more
than 90% of emissions were
produced in Europe or the US;
even by 1950, they accounted
for more than 85% of emissions
each year. Emissions have
continued to proliferate; we
now emit over 36 billion tonnes
each year.
Global CO2 Emission Trend by Region (1750-2019)
Source: Global Carbon Project

7. Who Contributes to
CO2 Emission?
• On a production basis, the
richest (high and upper-
middle-income) countries
accounted for half of the
population but 86 per cent of
emissions. On a consumption
basis, the result is the same,
but resulting from the fact that
upper-middle-income
countries primarily export
emissions to high-income
countries.
Income or regional group
Share of the population
(%)
Share of production-
based CO₂ emissions (%)
Share of
consumption-based
CO₂ emissions (%)
High income 16% 39% 46%
Upper-middle income 35% 48% 41%
Lower-middle income 40% 13% 13%
Low income 9% 0.4% 0.4%
North America 5% 17% 19%
Europe 10% 16% 18%
Latin America & the
Caribbean
9% 6% 6%
Asia 60% 56% 52%
Africa 16% 4% 3%
Oceania 0.5% 1.3% 1.3%
Production-Consumption-based Global CO2 Emission by Region
Source: PNAS

8. Ethical Concerns about Low Carbon Policy
Implementation?
• At low levels of human development, increased greenhouse gas
emissions can be considered a human right as they are linked to
the fulfilment of basic human needs (e.g. energy access,
development of basic infrastructure etc.)
• In contrast, increased emissions in rich countries are often
associated with luxurious consumption
• Hence, Equity and justice concerns have been central to the
international negotiations of the UNFCCC from the outset.

9. What if We Do Not
Restrict CO2 Emission?
• With concentrations already
exceeding 417 ppm and
emissions at record levels,
warming is likely to exceed
2ºC in the long term unless a
sharp and sustained decline of
at least 80 per cent in
emissions by 2050 compared
to 1990 is underway before
2020.
• Under “business as usual”
emissions scenarios, the 2ºC
warming is likely to be
reached globally by 2060 or
earlier, and temperatures will
continue rising well beyond
that time (Joshi et al., 2011;
Rogelj et al., 2011).
Global Carbon Emission and Warming Scenarios
Source: Climate Action Tracker, 2020

10. Ways Forward
• We are using 50 per cent more resources than the Earth can provide, and unless we change the
course, that number will grow very fast - by 2030, even two planets will not be enough.
• However, we do have a choice …….
• We can produce the food we need without expanding our agriculture footprint –through reducing
waste, which now claims much of the food we grow, using better seeds and better cultivation
techniques, bringing degraded lands back into production, and changing diets – particularly by
lowering meat consumption in high-income countries.
• We need to establish water management regimes that involve a broader range of stakeholders and
that manage river basins as the complex, richly diverse living systems that they are.
• We can meet all of our energy needs from sources like wind and sunlight that are clean and
abundant and further cut our total energy use in half using that from renewable sources

11. Ways Forward
• We all need to play a role in keeping this a living planet – with food, water and energy for all, and
the vibrant ecosystems that sustain life on Earth
• We all have to follow the followings:

12. Conclusion
• Emerging economies are posing risk not meeting their aspirations for improved living standards,
and high-income countries and communities risk seeing their current well-being eroded
• All together the humanity risks facing a complete extinction

13. Questions?