Understanding, Declaring and Acting upon a Climate Emergency

1. A Climate
Emergency
UNDERSTANDING, DECLARING AND ACTING ON THE CLIMATE EMERGENCY

2. Anthropogenic Heating
700,000 Years of
CO2 Levels
1000 Years of
Temperature
Records

3. What the UN’s IPCC are Saying:
• The Earth must stay within
1.5 Degrees Celsius for
human civilisation to be
able to adapt
• Global CO2 emissions
must be reduced by 45%
in 2030 and net zero by
2050
https://www.ipcc.ch/2018/10/08/summary-for-policymakers-of-ipcc-special-report-on-global-
warming-of-1-5c-approved-by-governments/

4. The Paris Agreement 2015
• The Paris Agreement is 80%
short of UN
recommendations
• Current global policies don’t
meet Paris commitments
• The US is set to withdraw
from the Paris Agreement
• Recent observed data
indicates that the situation is
more serious than earlier
predictions

5. • The IPCC’s reports have failed to include figures
for a number of huge positive feedbacks
• The IPCCs conclusions are overly conservative
with understated summaries due to political
pressure and text editing
• The 2050 net zero emission target will almost
certainly to be reduced to at least 2040
What if the UN’s Scientists have been
wrong about climate change?...

6. Climate Sensitivity: How much by and how fast?
Greenland, June 2019
GHG Reservoirs (methane hydrate reservoirs,
permafrost, soils, forests and fossil fuel
reserves) Total- 20.55 trillion tons
Total human
CO2 emissions:
1.4 trillion tons
Loss of sea ice and
other glacial cover
(10% of solar energy is
currently reflected)

7. Feedback Status (“Record” refers to instrumental
recording)
Relative to mid
range prediction
Arctic Sea Ice melt 2012 and 2019- record lows 50 years ahead
Antarctic Sea Ice melt 2014-2019- record decline (equivalent to 34 years
of Arctic decline)
50 years ahead
Global temperature 2016-2019 record temperature 10 years ahead
Monthly record temperature
Anomaly
2019- the hottest month ever recorded N/A
Boreal Burn season 2019- worst ever (more than the previous 10 years
combined)
70 years ahead
Greenland Ice sheet 2019Record ice melt/loss including, record 1 day
and 5 day records (12.5 and 55 billion tons)
40 years ahead
Permafrost melt/emissions 2019 record highs 70 years ahead
Methane Hydrate release 2019 record highs 50 years ahead of
Fossil fuel emissions and atmospheric
CO2
Record emissions and record rise N/A

9. Carbon Dioxide and Mass Extinctions
Every spike in atmospheric CO2 in the geological proxy record of the past 600 million
years has culminated in an extinction event
• 5 Mass extinctions
• 4-7°C temperature rise
• 10,000-200,000 year duration
• 75-95% loss of species
• Up to 10 million years for climatic and
biodiversity recovery

10. Without the unusual
stability of the
Holocene Interglacial
epoch, agriculture and
the complex entity of
human civilisation
could never have arisen

11. The End Holocene Extinction
In the 700 million year history of complex life on
Earth the current climate and biodiversity
disruption represents:
• The fastest ever sustained rate of extinction
(200 species a day)
• The fastest ever sustained rise in
atmospheric CO2 levels
• Close to the fastest ever rise in
temperatures
• The fastest ever acidification of oceans
At current rates we will
lose 75% of all species and
see a temperature increase
of up to 7 Celsius by 2100)

12. The asteroid impact that triggered the
dinosaur extinction released the
equivalent energy to 2 billion Hiroshima
bombs
Global anthropogenic
heating is currently
equivalent to the energy
release of one dinosaur
asteroid impact every 14
years

14. 2100: The Inexorable Logic of Business-As-Usual
• Unprecedented climate change and ocean acidification
• Unprecedented collapse of natural systems and biodiversity
• Virtually all habitat and topsoil gone
• Unprecedented spread of heavy metals, toxins and radioactive materials
• Total exhaustion of rare Earth metals, phosphates and other key minerals
• Unprecedented number of chemicals exist on Earth
• Unprecedented cascade of the nitrogen cycle
• 200,000 years to a population of reach 1 billion 200 years to see the next 11 billion
• The loss of tens of millions of square miles of land to sea level rise and desertification
• Loss of huge amounts of the Earth’s remaining fresh water
• Massive global instability
Without drastic action, no amount of clever accounting
can hide the fact that the current human civilisation is
moving rapidly towards its collapse

16. Remaining human carbon budget
(IPCC projections): 320 billion tons is
around 8 years of global emissions
(though some scientific estimates
indicate that the carbon budget is
either smaller or totally extinguished)

17. So you might be
feeling a little
concerned…

18. • It’s okay to tell the truth about the Climate Emergency
• It’s natural and okay to feel worried, upset or angry
• Shock and fear are powerful motivators, especially in a crisis
• Powerlessness only occurs where there is no solution or steps
people can take to engage in resolving the crisis
• Resolving the Climate Emergency is about action as much as
climate science
• When we believe we are in a crisis, humans are innovative

19. The Challenge: To Reduce our CO2 Equivalent footprint
by 40 billion gigatons per annum and remove at least
200 Billion tons of CO2 back out of the atmosphere

20. We already have the
solutions…
• We have the money and finances
• We have the engineering and technology solutions and they are
getting cheaper, quickly
• We know what policies, legislation and taxation is needed
• We know how long we have got to do it
• To do it will improve food security, energy security and
geopolitical stability
• human health, happiness and economic prosperity will
dramatically improve

21. Politicians just need to enact these solutions

23. Llanidloes Town Council Climate
Emergency Declaration
A petition, a proposed motion, a formal
presentation, local media, zero carbon
community consultation

24. Citizens are Rising up for the Truth
• Wales, Scotland and the UK declared Climate emergencies along with 228
local authorities and dozens of unions and industry bodies
• The BBC and the Guardian have changed how they report climate change
and even traditionally sceptical media players are engaging
• Climate change is now considered the most important issue by the UK
public
• Wales is altering its agricultural policy to support better environmental
stewardship
• Over a hundred thousand people active in Extinction Rebellion in the UK
alone and 1350 have been arrested to force change
• 1.5 million children are striking every month
• The UK government has adopted a net zero emissions target by 2050
• Greenpeace, Friends of the Earth and the Transition movement are engaged
in campaigning

25. • To use peaceful non-violent civil
disobedience and economic
disruption to enable rapid
change
• To use self-sacrifice through
arrest and detainment to get
attention of the media, the
establishment and the public
• To get the government to tell the
truth, act on the truth and to use
citizens’ assemblies
• To engage communities and loca
authorities through a variety of
events, activities and processes
• Only 2.5-3.5% of the a population
is required to be active to achieve
system change

26. • Formally, publicly and extensively declare the
unprecedented global emergency
• Act with unprecedented rapidly and decisiveness
to resolve the emergency
• Educate, involve and engage citizens
democratically, socially, culturally and
economically in the process

27. Things you can do today
• Go to Uswitch online and make ECOTRICITY your supplier (it takes minutes)
• Join, GREENPEACE, TRANSITION or FRIENDS OF THE EARTH online and give them money
• Reduce your meat and dairy intake and shop locally and seasonally
• Have a conversation about the climate crisis at least once a day
• Write to your MP, MEP and/or AM and ask them to take more action on climate change
• Offer your car as a lift share or walk to work
• Use the Ecosia search engine and they plant a tree every 45 searches
• Take your money OUT of BARCLAYS and HSBC and open a NATIONWIDE or COOPERATIVE bank
account
• Or lastly… Join Extinction Rebellion

28. The Pale Blue Spot: A Special Place in the Universe
The little people I
will defend to the
last moment

29. The Sandpile Model
One tree per person, per
day, for one year
Defending my Moors