Capabilities Expert Assessment

NATO CAPSTONE CONCEPT: MILITARY CONTRIBUTION TO COUNTERING HYBRID THREATS

1. SURVEILLANCE, DETECTION, RECOGNITION,
IDENTIFICATION AND ANALYSIS OF CHALLENGES, RISKS
AND THREATS TO NATIONAL SECURITY
1.1. EXISTENCE OF INSTITUTIONAL BODIES FOR
RECOGNITION AND MONITORING NATIONAL
SECURITY CHALLENGES, RISKS AND THREATS

№ NATIONAL SECURITY SYSTEM’S BASIC FUNCTIONS INSTITUTIONAL ROLE
1.
1. SURVEILLANCE, DETECTION, RECOGNITION,
IDENTIFICATION AND ANALYSIS OF CHALLENGES, RISKS AND
THREATS TO NATIONAL SECURITY
PRIMARY SECONDARY INSIGNIFICANT
I DON’T
KNOW
COMPLETELY BUILT
CAPABILITIES:
FULL
CAPABILITIES BUILT
TO A LARGE EXTENT:
RATHER FULL
CAPABILITIES BUILT
TO A MIDDLE STAGE:
MIDDLE
MARGINALLY BUILT
CAPABILITIES:
INSIGNIFICANT
LACK OF
CAPABILITIES:
MISSING
I CAN’T DECIDE
5 4 3 2 1 0
ASSESSMENT OF THE AVAILABLE CAPABILITIES TO EXECUTE
THIS FUNCTION
FULL
RATHER
FULL
MIDDLE
INSIGNIFI
CANT
MISSING
I DON’T
KNOW
1.1
AVAILABILITY OF INSTITUTIONAL BODIES FOR MONITORING
AND DISCLOSURE NATIONAL SECURITY CHALLENGES, RISKS
AND THREATS
5 4 3 2 1 0
1
2
3

EXTREMELY HIGH
INFLUENCE OR NEED
HIGH INFLUENCE OR
NEED
MIDDLE INFLUENCE
OR NEED
INSUFFICIENT
INFLUENCE OR NEED
LACK OF INFLUENCE
OR NEED
I DON’T KNOW
5 4 3 2 1 0
ASSESSMENT OF THE CAPABILITIES AVAILABILITY FOR THE FUNCTION
EXECUTION
EXTREMELY
HIGH
HIGH MIDDLE INSUFFICIENT MISSING
I DON’T
KNOW
1.4
ANALYSES AND ASSESSMENTS INFLUENCE ON THE
DECISION MAKING
5 4 3 2 1 0
ASSESSMENT OF THE CAPABILITY DEVELOPMENT NEED
EXTREMELY
HIGH
HIGH MIDDLE INSUFFICIENT MISSING
I DON’T
KNOW
1.6
NEED FOR INSTITUTIONAL CAPABILITIES
DEVELOPMENT AND MODERNIZATION
5 4 3 2 1 0
4
5
6

1 LAWS, REGULATIONS, STRATEGIES, DOCTRINES, CONCEPTS, PROGRAMS AND PLANS 5 4 3 2 1 0
7
STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS
METHODS:
1. ANALYSIS OF AVERAGES - TO PRESENT THE VALUE ESTIMATE OF THE AVERAGE LEVEL OF RESEARCH FUNCTION
2. ANALYSIS OF THE STANDARD DEVIATION - TO ACCOMMODATE THE CONVERGENCE OR DIVERSITY OF THE RESULTS
3. NONPARAMETRIC METHODS MANN-WHITNEY AND KRUSKAL-WALLIS - TO PROVE OR DISPROVE THE STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE
8
2 STRUCTURES, ORGANIZATIONS, SYSTEMS 5 4 3 2 1 0
3 EDUCATION, TRAINING, EXERCISES 5 4 3 2 1 0
4 EQUIPMENT AND MATERIALS 5 4 3 2 1 0
5 MANAGEMENT, COMMAND AND CONTROL 5 4 3 2 1 0
6 PERSONNEL 5 4 3 2 1 0
7 INFRASTRUCTURE, CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE 5 4 3 2 1 0
8 COOPERATION AND INTEROPERABILITY 5 4 3 2 1 0

DISCUSSION AREAS MAIN TOPICS
1
1
DEFINING POTENTIAL HYBRID THREATS WHOSE OCCURRENCE
COULD THREATEN THE NATIONAL INTERESTS OF THE
REPUBLIC OF BULGARIA
ENERGY SECURITY, TERRORISM, DEMOGRAPHY, MIGRATION,
INFORMATION SECURITY, CORRUPTION, STATE INSTITUTIONS
FUNCTIONING, ETHNIC MARGINALIZATION AND ALIENATION ……
2
DEFINING INSTITUTIONAL CAPABILITIES TO COUNTERING
HYBRID THREATS
CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE PROTECTION, INSTITUTIONS
RESILIENCE, EDUCATION & TRAINING, STRATEGIC ENERGY
BALANCE, BORDER PROTECTION, SOCIAL SECURITY MEASURES…….
3
DEFINING AND ANALYSIS OF AVAILABLE INSTITUTIONAL
CAPABILITIES TO COUNTERING HYBRID THREATS
CYBER SECURITY/DEFENSE, SURVEILLANCE SYSTEMS, BORDER
SECURITY, MIGRATION POLICY AND MEASURES, FINANCIAL
SECURITY, INTERNAL SECURITY AND CRIME, LAW ENFORCEMENT....
4
DEFICIT OF INSTITUTIONAL/NATIONAL CAPABILITIES TO
COUNTERING HYBRID THREATS
NATIONAL LEGAL BASE, PREVENTION CAPABILITIES, CYBER
SECURITY, CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE AND BORDER PROTECTION,
INFORMATION SECURITY, ENERGY SECURITY, INTEROPERABILITY…..
5
FORMS AND METHODS FOR INTERINSTITUTIONAL
COOPERATION IN CAPABILITIES DEVELOPMENT AND USE
SECURITY STANDING OPERATIONAL PROCEDURES, EDUCATION,
TRAINING AND EXERCISING, SURVEILLANCE AND SITUATION
CENTERS, INFORMATION DISTRIBUTION AND SHARING…………….
FINDINGS
1. NEED OF DEVELOPMENT MODERNIZATION OF NATIONAL LEGAL BASE AND INSTITUTIONAL STRATEGIC DOCUMENTS
2. ENLARGING INSTITUTIONAL AWARENESS AND INTEROPERABILITY IN CAPABILITY DEVELOPMENT AND USE AREAS
3. INGROWING INTERINSTITUTIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION TO COUNTERING HYBRID THREATS
2

1. MONITORING, DETECTION, IDENTIFICATION AND ANALYSIS OF CHALLENGES,
RISKS AND THREATS TO NATIONAL SECURITY
MOD&AF (60)
SECONDARY
55%
LEAD INST (7)
PRIMARY
67%
CIVILIAN INST
(11)
SECONDARY
73%
11.1
Availability of institutional capabilities for detecting and monitoring
national security challenges, risks and threats
3,30 ,96 3,43 ,79 2,60 1,43
11.2
Availability of institutional capabilities for analysis and assessment
national security challenges, risks and threats development
3,37 ,90 3,29 ,76 2,50 1,08
11.3
Availability of institutional capabilities for receiving/sharing information of
3,39 ,95 3,57 ,98 3,00 ,82
11.4
Influence of analysis and assessment of the development challenges, risks
and threats on the decision making processes
3,43 ,95 3,57 1,13 2,90 1,10
11.5
Influence of analysis and assessment of the development challenges, risks
and threats on the development of institutional/national legal base
3,27 ,95 3,57 1,13 2,70 1,34
11.6
Need of development and modernization of institutional capabilities for
detecting and monitoring national security challenges, risks and threats
3,78 ,89 3,71 ,49 3,40 ,97
MOD&AF (60)
SECONDARY
55%
LEAD INST (7)
PRIMARY
67%
CIVILIAN INST
(11)
SECONDARY
73%
11.1
3,30 ,96 3,43 ,79 2,60 1,43
11.2
3,37 ,90 3,29 ,76 2,50 1,08
11.3
Availability of institutional capabilities for receiving/sharing information
of national security challenges, risks and threats development
3,39 ,95 3,57 ,98 3,00 ,82
11.4
Influence of analysis and assessment of the development challenges,
risks and threats on the decision making processes
3,43 ,95 3,57 1,13 2,90 1,10
11.5
risks and threats on the development of institutional/national legal base
3,27 ,95 3,57 1,13 2,70 1,34
11.6
3,78 ,89 3,71 ,49 3,40 ,97
MOD&AF (60)
SECONDARY
55%
LEAD INST (7)
PRIMARY
67%
CIVILIAN INST
(11)
SECONDARY
73%
11.1
3,30 ,96 3,43 ,79 2,60 1,43
11.2
3,37 ,90 3,29 ,76 2,50 1,08
11.3
3,39 ,95 3,57 ,98 3,00 ,82
11.4
3,43 ,95 3,57 1,13 2,90 1,10
11.5
3,27 ,95 3,57 1,13 2,70 1,34
11.6
3,78 ,89 3,71 ,49 3,40 ,97
MOD&AF (60)
SECONDARY
55%
LEAD INST (7)
PRIMARY
67%
CIVILIAN INST
(11)
SECONDARY
73%
11.1
3,30 ,96 3,43 ,79 2,60 1,43
11.2
3,37 ,90 3,29 ,76 2,50 1,08
11.3
3,39 ,95 3,57 ,98 3,00 ,82
11.4
3,43 ,95 3,57 1,13 2,90 1,10
11.5
3,27 ,95 3,57 1,13 2,70 1,34
11.6
3,78 ,89 3,71 ,49 3,40 ,97
MOD&AF (60)
SECONDARY
55%
LEAD INST (7)
PRIMARY
67%
CIVILIAN INST
(11)
SECONDARY
73%
11.1
3,30 ,96 3,43 ,79 2,60 1,43
11.2
3,37 ,90 3,29 ,76 2,50 1,08
11.3
3,39 ,95 3,57 ,98 3,00 ,82
11.4
3,43 ,95 3,57 1,13 2,90 1,10
11.5
3,27 ,95 3,57 1,13 2,70 1,34
11.6
3,78 ,89 3,71 ,49 3,40 ,97
MOD&AF (60)
SECONDARY
55%
LEAD INST (7)
PRIMARY
67%
CIVILIAN INST
(11)
SECONDARY
73%
11.1
3,30 ,96 3,43 ,79 2,60 1,43
11.2
3,37 ,90 3,29 ,76 2,50 1,08
11.3
3,39 ,95 3,57 ,98 3,00 ,82
11.4
3,43 ,95 3,57 1,13 2,90 1,10
11.5
3,27 ,95 3,57 1,13 2,70 1,34
11.6
3,78 ,89 3,71 ,49 3,40 ,97
MOD&AF (60)
SECONDARY
55%
LEAD INST (7)
PRIMARY
67%
CIVILIAN INST
(11)
SECONDARY
73%
11.1
3,30 ,96 3,43 ,79 2,60 1,43
11.2
3,37 ,90 3,29 ,76 2,50 1,08
11.3
3,39 ,95 3,57 ,98 3,00 ,82
11.4
3,43 ,95 3,57 1,13 2,90 1,10
11.5
3,27 ,95 3,57 1,13 2,70 1,34
11.6
3,78 ,89 3,71 ,49 3,40 ,97
MOD&AF (60)
SECONDARY
55%
LEAD INST (7)
PRIMARY
67%
CIVILIAN INST
(11)
SECONDARY
73%
11.1
3,30 ,96 3,43 ,79 2,60 1,43
11.2
3,37 ,90 3,29 ,76 2,50 1,08
11.3
3,39 ,95 3,57 ,98 3,00 ,82
11.4
3,43 ,95 3,57 1,13 2,90 1,10
11.5
3,27 ,95 3,57 1,13 2,70 1,34
11.6
3,78 ,89 3,71 ,49 3,40 ,97
MOD&AF (60)
SECONDARY
55%
LEAD INST (7)
PRIMARY
67%
CIVILIAN INST
(11)
SECONDARY
73%
11.1
3,30 ,96 3,43 ,79 2,60 1,43
11.2
3,37 ,90 3,29 ,76 2,50 1,08
11.3
3,39 ,95 3,57 ,98 3,00 ,82
11.4
3,43 ,95 3,57 1,13 2,90 1,10
11.5
3,27 ,95 3,57 1,13 2,70 1,34
11.6
3,78 ,89 3,71 ,49 3,40 ,97
MOD&AF (60)
SECONDARY
55%
LEAD INST (7)
PRIMARY
67%
CIVILIAN INST
(11)
SECONDARY
73%
11.1
3,30 ,96 3,43 ,79 2,60 1,43
11.2
3,37 ,90 3,29 ,76 2,50 1,08
11.3
3,39 ,95 3,57 ,98 3,00 ,82
11.4
3,43 ,95 3,57 1,13 2,90 1,10
11.5
3,27 ,95 3,57 1,13 2,70 1,34
11.6
3,78 ,89 3,71 ,49 3,40 ,97
MOD&AF (60)
SECONDARY
55%
LEAD INST (7)
PRIMARY
67%
CIVILIAN INST
(11)
SECONDARY
73%
11.1
3,30 ,96 3,43 ,79 2,60 1,43
11.2
3,37 ,90 3,29 ,76 2,50 1,08
11.3
3,39 ,95 3,57 ,98 3,00 ,82
11.4
3,43 ,95 3,57 1,13 2,90 1,10
11.5
3,27 ,95 3,57 1,13 2,70 1,34
11.6
3,78 ,89 3,71 ,49 3,40 ,97
RISKS AND THREATS TO THE NATIONAL SECURITY
MOD&AF (60)
SECONDARY
55%
LEAD INST (7)
PRIMARY
67%
CIVILIAN INST
(11)
SECONDARY
73%
11.1
3,30 ,96 3,43 ,79 2,60 1,43
11.2
3,37 ,90 3,29 ,76 2,50 1,08
11.3
3,39 ,95 3,57 ,98 3,00 ,82
11.4
3,43 ,95 3,57 1,13 2,90 1,10
11.5
3,27 ,95 3,57 1,13 2,70 1,34
11.6
3,78 ,89 3,71 ,49 3,40 ,97

THE NEED IS LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE AVAILABLE CAPABILITIES, BUT AS A WHOLE AVAILABLE INSTITUTIONAL
CAPABILITIES ALLOW TO EXECUTE THEIR CURRENT ROLE

NATIONAL SECURITY SYSTEM LEGAL FRAMEWORK – LAW ON NSS, DEFENCE LAW, LAW ON INTERNAL MINISTRY, CRISIS
MANAGEMENT LAW, DISASTER MANAGEMENT LAW
INSTITUTIONAL AND NATIONAL CONCEPTUAL AND STRATEGIC DOCUMENTS RELATED TO THE AREAS OF COUNTERING
HYBRID THREATS
NATIONAL AND INSTITUTIONAL CAPABILITY DEVELOPMENT RELATED STRATEGIC DOCUMENTS AND PLANS VS ALLIED
(NATO AND EU) CAPSTONE AND STRATEGIC DOCUMENTS
NSS MANAGEMENT: POLICY AND SYSTEM RESILIENCE, DECISION MAKING AND OPERATIONAL PROCEDURES, FOREIGN
FACTORS OF INSTABILITY, POOR OR INEFFECTIVE MANAGEMENT PRACTICES AND VIOLATED PUBLIC TRUST
CRITICAL ECONOMY SECTORS - ENERGETICS, DIVERSIFICATION OF RESOURCE MANAGEMENT, TRANSPORTATION,
BANKING AND FINANCE, CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURES
INFORMATION POLICY, INFORMATION SECURITY AND PROTECTION, MEDIA, NETWORKS AND INFORMATION
INFLUENCE, DISRUPTED STRATEGIC COMMUNICATION
POSSIBLE AREAS OF ARISING OF HYBRID THREATS:

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL MIGHT HAVE A MANIFESTATION OF COMPLEMENTARITY, OVERLAY OR COMBINED
AND HIGH NEGATIVE IMPACTS ON SECURITY WITH INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL NATURE, HARD TO PREDICT WITH LONG-
TERM EFFECTS AND CONSEQUENCES. THEIR IDENTIFICATION AND MANAGEMENT REQUIRE SPECIALIZED INSTITUTIONAL
BODIES FOR RECOGNITION, TRACKING, ANALYSIS AND COUNTERMEASURES
THE ESTIMATION OF THE ARISING POSSIBILITY OF SUCH THREATS RANGE FROM MODERATELY HIGH UP TO HIGH, AND
CALL FOR IMMEDIATE INSTITUTIONAL MEASURES TO ENHANCE THE PRELIMINARY INSTITUTIONAL READINESS AND
STANDING PLANS, PROCEDURES AND MEASURES TO REACT ON THEIR UNEXPECTED DEVELOPMENT AND INFLUENCE
A STRONG EMPHASIS ON THE NEED OF INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS TO ABSORB INSTITUTIONAL AND NATIONAL POTENTIAL
WITH INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL POLITICAL DIALOGUE, OUTREACH, PUBLIC DIPLOMACY, COMBINATION OF ECONOMIC,
INFORMATION AND SOCIAL MEASURES FOR ENHANCING PUBLIC TRUST AND SOCIETY RESILIENCE
THE DISCUSSION IDENTIFIED THE NEED OF A PROACTIVE STRATEGY TO EXPAND INTERINSTITUTIONAL AND
INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AND COLLABORATION FOR A SHARED DEVELOPMENT AND USAGE OF NEW AND
MODERNIZED INSTITUTIONAL/NATIONAL CAPABILITIES TO COUNTERING THREATS HYBRID
IT WAS ACKNOWLEDGED THE INCREASING ROLE OF MODERN EDUCATION, TRAINING AND EXERCISING, AS WELL AS THE
NEED OF MORE INSTITUTIONAL AND NATIONAL SCIENTIFIC RESEARCHES IN THIS AREA IN ORDER TO CONTINUOUSLY
DEVELOP AND UPDATE SPECIALIZED SUBJECT MATTER EXPERTISE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY AND DEFENSE

DELIBERATELY USE OF WEAKNESSES AND VULNERABILITIES:
WEAKNESSES IN NATIONAL INSTITUTIONS AND GOVERNMENT FUNCTIONING, CORRUPTION
LACK OF PUBLIC TRUST AND SUPPORT FOR INTERNAL SECURITY AND DEFENCE INSTITUTIONS’ EFFORT
ETHNIC SEPARATION AND NEGLECTED THE INTERESTS OF LARGE ETHNIC GROUPS – POLITICAL, ECONOMIC AND
SOCIAL MARGINALIZATION
CRITICAL DEPENDENCE ON RESOURCES IMPORTS, ECONOMIC AND ENERGY DEPENDENCE, LACK OF DIVERSITY AND
VULNERABILITY OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE - FINANCE, ENERGY, COMMUNICATIONS AND TRANSPORTATION AND CYBER

THE REALIZATION OF A SMALL PART OF THE NATIONAL SECURITY FUNCTIONS (20% OR FOUR OF TWENTY) IS PERFORMED
WITH AVAILABLE INSTITUTIONAL CAPABILITIES AT ABOVE THE MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL OF MEASUREMENT SCALE
THE MAIN PART OF THE NSS FUNCTIONS IS PERFORMED UPON AVAILABLE CAPABILITIES AT ABOUT MIDDLE LEVEL, AND A
SIGNIFICANT PART OF THESE ARE RATED EVEN LOWER THAN MIDDLE ON THE MEASUREMENT SCALE
THE COMPARATIVE ASSESSMENT BETWEEN THE MOD NEEDS AND AVAILABLE CAPABILITIES REVEALED MULTIPLE GROUPS
OF CAPABILITIES THAT NEED DEVELOPMENT, AS THE NEEDS ARE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN ACTUAL AVAILABILITY
THE INSUFFICIENT EXPERT INSTITUTIONAL REPRESENTATION (EXCEPT MOD), AND THEREFORE A BROADER EXPERT-
PROFILE GROUPING, THE RESULTS OF ASSESSMENT THE INSTITUTIONAL ROLE OF MINISTRIES AND STATE AGENCIES
COULD NOT BE CONSTRUED SUITABLE FOR EACH GROUP OF INSTITUTIONS
THE RESULTS REVEAL A RELATIVELY NARROW INSTITUTIONAL AND SECTORAL SPECIALIZATION OF PARTICIPATING
EXPERTS, AND IT COULD BE ASSUMED THAT INSTITUTIONAL ROLE IN SOME BASIC FUNCTIONS HAS NOT BEEN EVALUATED
IN FULL COMPLIANCE WITH PRESCRIBED IN THE ENTIRE NSS LEGAL BASE INSTITUTIONAL RESPONSIBILITIES AND TASKS

THE RESULTS REVEAL A CLEAR TREND OF AN EXPERT FOLLOWING THE ACTUAL POLITICAL TRENDS AND A PRIORITY
EMPHASIS ON THE TOPICAL POLITICAL DECISIONS ON CAPABILITY DEVELOPMENT TO BOOST THE NSS FUNCTIONALITY
A GOOD EXPERT SPECIALIZATION ALLOWS A SUFFICIENTLY FULL COMPLIANCE OF THE ASSESSMENT’S HIGHLIGHTS WITH
REQUIREMENTS OF DEFENSE LEGISLATION, OFFICIAL POLICY AND INSTITUTIONAL STRATEGIC DOCUMENTS, AIMED TO
INCREASE THE EFFECTIVENESS OF MOD CONTRIBUTION TO THE ALLIED CAPABILITY DEVELOPMENT AND USE
DUE TO THE RESPONSE TO THE INSTITUTIONAL PRIORITIZATION AND COMMITMENT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SPECIFIC
GROUPS OF CAPABILITIES, IT SEEMS UNDERESTIMATED THE NEED OF UPDATING CAPABILITIES TO DEFENSE THE
TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY, STATE INDEPENDENCE AND TO COMBAT TERRORISM
DESPITE INSTITUTIONAL EFFORT, THE UNDERESTIMATION OF THE NEED OF COMMAND AND CONTROL CAPABILITIES (TO
IDENTIFY AND ANALYZE ARISING SECURITY CHALLENGES AND THREATS), IT STILL EXIST A PROBABILITY OF HYBRID
THREATS DEVELOPMENT IN THE EXECUTION OF INTER-INSTITUTIONAL AND MULTI-INSTITUTIONAL NSS FUNCTIONS
THE ANALYSIS OF THE RESEARCH’S RESULTS AND FINDINGS REVEALS - IN ORDER TO OVERCOME THE CAPABILITY
SHORTAGE AND TO ENHANCE NSS READINESS IT IS NEEDED:

COMPREHENSIVE REVIEW AND UPDATE NSS LEGAL AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK, DEVELOPMENT A
DETAILED CLASSIFICATION OF INSTITUTIONAL ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES FOR IMPLEMENTATION OF ITS
BASIC FUNCTIONS
PRIORITIZATION OF THE DEVELOPMENT AND ACTUALIZATION THE INSTITUTIONAL CAPABILITIES, NECESSARY
FOR THE EXECUTION THE LEADING INSTITUTIONAL ROLES IN MAIN NATIONAL SECURITY AND DEFENSE
FUNCTIONS
INTER-INSTITUTIONAL PRIORITIZATION OF CAPABILITY COMMITMENT FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF
LEGALLY PRESCRIBED INSTITUTIONAL ROLES, ENLARGING THE INSTITUTIONAL CONTRIBUTION TO THE
SHARED NATIONAL AND ALLIANCE CAPABILITY DEVELOPMENT
DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVE MECHANISMS TO IMPROVE THE QUALITY OF INSTITUTIONAL EXPERTISE WITH
EDUCATION, TRAINING AND EXERCISING, IN ORDER TO ENHANCE INTER-INSTITUTIONAL AND
INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AND COLLABORATION IN COUNTERING HYBRID THREATS

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