AQA Geography New natural disaster ppt


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An overview of natural hazards, focusing on tectonic and early warning systmes; leans very heavily on the article: "Global early warning systems for natural
hazards: systematic and people-centred
By Re?d Basher*"i

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AQA Geography New natural disaster ppt

  1. 1. GLOBAL EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS FOR NATURAL HAZARDS: SYSTEMATIC AND PEOPLE-CENTRED By Reid Basher et al!To be effective, early warning systems for natural hazards need to have not only asound scientific and technical basis, but also a strong focus on the people exposed torisk, and with a systems approach that incorporates all of the relevant factors in thatrisk, whether arising from the natural hazards or social vulnerabilities, and from short-term or long-term processes.
  3. 3. 1. DISASTERS AND DISASTER TRENDS A natural disaster is……a serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society causingwidespread human, material, economic or environmental losses whichexceed the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its ownresources (ISDR 2004).
  4. 4. 1. DISASTERS AND DISASTER TRENDSA disaster thus arises from the combination of the hazard event or episode, theconditions of vulnerability to that hazard and the insufficiency of capacity ormeasures to cope with the hazard.From this perspective, the term natural disaster is an oxymoron, as thevulnerability and coping factors in the equation are within human control tosome degree and therefore are not natural.
  6. 6. DEFINING RISK Hazard (probability) x Loss (expected)RISK = Preparedness (loss mitigation)
  7. 7. VULNERABILITYEconomic issues• Tackle social inequalities – long goal• Self protection – “bottom up”“Capacity” – ISDR (UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction)• “A combination of all the strengths and resources available within a community, society or organisation that can reduce the level of risk, or effect of a disaster.”• “The means by which people use the available resources and their abilities to to face hazardous events”
  10. 10. HUMAN SYSTEM FAILURE?Timmerman (1981)“Systems fail”• Resilience – not a simple as it seems – Katrina v. Bam – c.f. LA• Reliability – of human systems to copeBlaikie (1994)“People not systems fail”• “the characteristics of a person or group in terms of their capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist and recover from the impact of a natural hazard”• Young, old, male, female, LEDC, MEDC
  11. 11. 1. DISASTERS AND DISASTER TRENDSDisasters disproportionately affect poor people and poor countries and are increasingly recognizedas a major handicap to the development of many countries.
  12. 12. “PHILOSOPHY AS ACTIONS “(PARK 1992)Why are people at risk?• Unpredictability• Limit of alternatives• Changing danger• Russian roulette• Cost – Benefit analysis
  13. 13. 1. DISASTERS AND DISASTER TRENDSDisaster impacts are generally increasing as a result of the combination of increasingpopulations, greater concentrations of people and assets in vulnerable areas, greater use ofinsurance and the modification and degradation of natural environments, such as floodplainsettlement, coastal exploitation, wetland destruction, river channelling, deforestation, soil erosionand fertility decline. Vulnerability to hazards is exacerbated by poverty, disease, conflict and
  14. 14. DEFINING RISK Hazard (probability) x Loss (expected)RISK = Preparedness (loss mitigation)
  15. 15. 1. DISASTERS AND DISASTER TRENDS Prior to that date (Indian Ocean tsunami of Boxing Day 2004), the trend in death rates since the 1950s was downward, as a result of improving early warning systems, better preparedness and response, including systematic food aid systems. Together these now avoid the massive famines and flood losses that earlier prevailed.
  16. 16. THE HUMAN RESPONSE TO NATURAL HAZARDS The individual, local, regional, national and now global responses to the hazards threat will be a function of all or some of the following:• nature of the hazard• past experience of the hazard / other hazards• hazard perception – of decision-makers and public• economic ability to take action• technological resources• knowledge of available options• social and political framework• relative importance of hazard threat compared to jobs, education, defence…
  17. 17. The Human Response to Hazards 3 broad categories of response:1. Prevent or modify the EVENT • flood control, lava diversion, cloud seeding etc • significant impact unlikely given current understanding & technology2. Modify human VULNERABILITY • Hazard-resistant design (aseismic buildings, sea walls etc) • Monitoring, prediction & warning • Community preparedness (education, evacuation, shelter…..) • Land use planning (hazard zonation)3. Modify / share the LOSSES • International aid • National funding for disasters • Hazard insurance
  18. 18. 2. EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND THEIR ELEMENTSThe expression early warning isused in many fields to mean theprovision of information on anemerging dangerous circumstancewhere that information can enableaction in advance to reduce the risksinvolved.the provision of timely andeffective information, throughidentified institutions, that allowsindividuals exposed to a hazard totake action to avoid or reduce theirrisk and prepare for effectiveresponse (ISDR 2004).
  19. 19. 2. EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND THEIR ELEMENTSTo be effective and complete, an early warning system needs to comprise fourinteracting elements (ISDR-PPEW 2005 a), as shown in figure 2, namely: (i) riskknowledge, (ii) monitoring and warning service, (iii) dissemination andcommunication and (iv) response capability
  20. 20. 2. EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND THEIR ELEMENTSHigh-quality predictions by themselves areinsufficient to achieve the desired reduction inlosses and impacts. Failures in early warning systems typically occur in the communication and preparedness elements. E.g. Katrina & New Orleans, Nevado del Ruiz, Columbia and in Boxing Day tsunami it was in all four elements! It should be noted that in order to sustain the four elements over the long run, it is necessary to have strong political commitment and durable institutional capacities, which in turn depend on public awareness and an appreciation of the benefits of effective warning systems.
  21. 21. Public awareness and support is often high immediately after a majordisaster event; such moments can be capitalized on to strengthen andsecure the sustainability of early warning systems.
  22. 22. 3. A BROADER VIEW OF NATURAL RISKFrom this perspective it is desirable to monitor and provide early warning and foresight notonly on the short-term precipitating hazards and geophysical conditions but also on therelevant longer-term factors such as declining environmental state, risk-raising developmentpractices and projects, risk-altering policy changes, the status of social communicationsand capacities, trends in food markets, settlement trends and migration, conflict and healthstatus. This involves a wide range of time frames, as illustrated in table 1, and diversemethodologies for monitoring and forecasting.
  23. 23. 4. THE LINEAR PARADIGM OF MODEL- BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS The classic “Risk Management Cycle” (Smith, 1996) In the linear model based early-warning systems, Smith assumes that the cycle ends and does not contain the essential feedback that is characteristic of people- centred approaches.
  24. 24. 4. THE LINEAR PARADIGM OF MODEL- BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS The role of modellingAt the heart of all early warning systems is some sort of model that describes therelevant features of the hazard phenomenon and its impacts, particularly their timeevolution. The model provides the means to make projections of what might happen inthe future and therefore what actions might be desirable in response.Models may be as elaborate as the physics-based global numerical weather predictionmodels, or as straightforward as common knowledge mental models (e.g. that thenoisy approaching tsunami wave will arrive in a few minutes). They may be slowlyevolving, as in a drought model where the loss of soil moisture may occur over months,or very rapid, such as in an earthquake where the differential speed of electromagneticsignals relative to seismic waves can be used to automatically shut down a distantsensitive system a few seconds before damaging stresses occur.
  25. 25. 4. THE LINEAR PARADIGM OF MODEL- BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMSAll models are driven by a specification of an initial state,which must be obtained by observations . CHAOSObservation systems can be expensive to install and operateand are often rather inadequate, especially in poorer countries.Warnings are, therefore, inherently probabilistic, even if basedon sound physics and presented in a categorical format
  26. 26. 4. THE LINEAR PARADIGM OF MODEL- BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMSA very different example to illustrate theseissues is that of tsunami early warning systems,as shown in table 2. Currently, tsunamiwarnings mostly are based on simple statisticalrelationships with precursor seismicobservations, but these latter observations donot allow accurate prediction of the oceanicresponse, and so the false warning rates arehigh and the probability characteristics arepoorly known. Usually, the warnings areprovided only in categorical forms that usuallyrequire immediate response action. However,developments in ocean observation systemsand in ocean wave propagation and coastalinundation models are in place to improve thissituation in the near future (Titov et al. 2005).
  27. 27. 5. SHORTCOMINGS OF THE LINEAR PARADIGMPeople centred early warning systems need for multiple level participation and support:This will require the coordinated participation of many different types of organizations,bound by a consensus of commitment to the people-centred concept, and to the idea ofan integrated system that is measured by its performance namely protecting those at risk.
  29. 29. 7. SYSTEMS-ORIENTED RESEARCH NEEDS FOR EARLY WARNINGThere is a need for more systemic, cross cutting and applied research, including on thefollowing topics: (i) development and use of geospatial data models, risk maps and scenarios,(ii) cost-effective observations systems,(iii) data generation and assimilation (e.g. bathymetry for tsunami models),(iv) improvement of core prediction system models and prediction tools,(v) warning decision system tools for disaster managers,(vi) management under warning uncertainty,(vii) evaluation and comparison of warning communication methods,(viii) models of human response behaviour including evacuations,(ix) visualization of impacts and response options for community preparedness,(x) operationalization of the all-hazards approach,(xi) role of early warning as an adaptation to climate change,(xii) warning system performance, indicators, benchmarks,(xiii) economic assessments of warning system effectiveness
  30. 30. 8. RECENT MOVES TO DEVELOP BETTER EARLY WARNING SYSTEMSThe December 2004 tsunami shone an intense spotlight on questions of early warningsystems and preparedness, leading most notably to the call by United Nations SecretaryGeneral Kofi Annan in January 2005 for a global warning system for all hazards with nocountry left out. This was to be followed later in the year by his request to the InternationalStrategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) secretariat to coordinate a global survey of earlywarning systems, with a view to identifying gaps and opportunities, as a basis fordeveloping such global capacities (UN 2005 a). Meanwhile, negotiations by states over 2004culminated in a major international agreement on disaster risk reduction at the WorldConference on Disaster Reduction in Kobe, Japan, 18-22 January 2005, namely the HyogoFramework for Action 2005-2015: building the resilience of nations and communities todisasters (UN 20056). The topic of risk and early warning is one of its five priority areas foraction. Leading UN agencies announced at the conference the launch of an InternationalEarly Warning Programme (IEWP), as a vehicle to stimulate and coordinate cooperativeinitiatives to advance early warning methodology and to build early warning capacities(ISDR-PPEW 2005b). Shortly afterwards, Germany offered to host a third InternationalConference on Early Warning (EWC III) under UN auspices (see Rapidprogress hats been made on developing a tsunami warning system for the Indian Ocean,
  32. 32. 8. RECENT MOVES TO DEVELOP BETTER EARLY WARNING SYSTEMSIn early 2005, the British Government established a Natural Hazard Working Group underthe guidance of the government chief scientist to advise on the mechanisms that could beestablished for the detection and early warning of global physical natural hazards,particularly those hazards that could have high global or regional impact, and includinginternational mechanisms needed to enable the international science community to advisegovernments (UK-DTI 2005)
  33. 33. 9. INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORKSThe task of putting science to work in policy and practice can only be achieved through soundinstitutional mechanismsat national, regional and international levels. The major failures of earlywarning systems over recent times have been failures largely of institutions rather than science.Institutions are required to capture and sustain political commitment, to capitalize on and applyexisting scientific knowledge, to assess risks and manage investments in systems, to globalize andsystematize early warning systems, and to guide and resource underpinning scientific research.The UN global survey of early warning systems will be an important step toward setting outgaps and needs in respect to early warning systems globally. It is clear that any globallycomprehensive warning capacity will not be a centrally managed system, but will build onand strengthen existing institutional arrangements, particularly the operational mandates ofWMO, UNESCO, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the UN EnvironmentProgramme (UNEP), the member bodies of the International Council of Scientific Unions(ICSU), and the Group on Earth Observations (GEO?see, and on theorganizational contexts of the ISDR and the Hyogo Framework. The embryonic IEWPprovides a vehicle to coordinate and focus energy on systemic issues and capacity buildingin early warning systems development.
  34. 34. IDNDR POLICY GOALSEncourage policies that reduce vulnerability1. Land use: plans should be put into operation that limit, or ban, building upon hazardous areas such as steep slopes, river flood plains and faulted areas.2. Risk and disaster impact assessments: on the basis of these, special programmes can be designed to reduce vulnerability and to use the results in development projects.3. Design, construction and maintenance of buildings and other structures: give advice and financial incentives to encourage safe and cost-effective buildings and enforce construction regulations.Ensure that governments, at national and local level, are prepared to cope with a hazardevent1. Emergency management planning: roles and responsibilities in emergencies should be clearly identified.2. Strengthen organizations: money should be put forward to train disaster managers and to provide staff to enforce regulations. All equipment for handling the impact of disasters should be main-tained and updated whenever possible.3. Communications: channels should be established for early warn-ings, evacuations and relief measures. Local decision-makers should be made aware of all scientific evidence, where available, and its value to them
  35. 35. IDNDR POLICY GOALSEnsure that the community is well prepared1. Public awareness and education: make people aware that they have to protect themselves. Education campaigns should be instituted in order to raise public awareness about hazard risks, and what preparatory and preventive measures people should be taking.2. Community-based programmes and solutions: communities, parti-cularly vulnerable ones, should be consulted in order to identify local needs and feasible solutions.3. Buildings with hazardous substances: buildings such as nuclear power stations and chemical stores should be retrofitted and well maintained. It could be possible to consider relocation of some buildings that fall into this category to less vulnerable sites.
  36. 36. IDNDR POLICY GOALSSpecial programmes for high-risk situations1. There are a number of areas where special attention should be given as a priority. They include:2. Essential facilities: electricity, gas water, telecommunications, hospitals and schools. Existing buildings to be retrofitted, new structures to have disaster-resistant devices built in to them. Back-up systems need to be constructed.3. High-risk groups: programmes should focus on groups such as children, the elderly and those on low-incomes, with targeted edu-cation programmes, specific financial help and specialised health care.4. Informal settlements: within the cities of LEDCs, informal settle-ments are the areas often most at risk from hazards having been constructed on such sites as low-lying marshy land and steep slopes.5. Cultural treasures/heritage: as these cannot be replaced, they will need special precautions to make sure that they survive the hazard event.
  37. 37. DISASTER RELIEF LINKS• Stopping crises from becoming catastrophes Can disaster management be better integrated with development?• Christian Aid - Facing up to the storm Lessons from Orissa and Gujerat.• Seeds - India Promotes people oriented campaigns to help communities prepare themselves in the event of natural or manmade disasters.• Thunderbirds are No Go! High-tech search-and-rescue teams are ready to fly out of Western countries as soon as disaster strikes on the other side of the world. But would they do better to stay at home? Article from New Internationalist. August 1991 issue on Disasters• Disaster diplomacy A radical perspective from a group of academics.Can disasters induce international cooperation amongst enemy countries?• The Future of Aid, 2005-2010: challenges and choices Overseas Development Institute report covering the wider issues (Feb 2004).• Time to cut the UKs aid strings Open letter - War on Want (1st Dec 2004).• UN scepticism The United Nations -- along with international aid agencies and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) -- is expressing scepticism over the eventual delivery of the hefty 2.5 billion dollars in pledges made by donors for tsunami disaster relief operations in south and southeast Asia.• Oxfam press release details how donor governments do not always meet funding pledges.• Has Kashmir aid gone too far? BBC Jan 12 2006 Kashmir’s earthquake: don’t care or don’t know? Beena Sarwar, Open Democracy article Nov 2005 india_pakistan/earthquake_relief_3024.jsp•• DEC report (Jan 2006) Criticism of tsunami spending DEC response,1689/pr,1 The report
  38. 38. RECOVERY AGENCIES - NGOSAgencies involved in relief workAction AidCafod (Catholic Church)Care InternationalChristian AidGlobal givingInternational Federation of the Red CrossIslamic ReliefMedecins Sans FrontieresMuslim HandsOxfamSave The ChildrenUnicefWorld Vision
  39. 39. RECOVERY PAGESAgencies involved in reconstruction work• What is needed for sustainable recovery? World conference at Kobe (Jan 05) draft report. 3.pdf• UN FAO Tsunami page has details of reconstruction projects For• Oxfam The tsunami page "One area that has so far received less attention is the gender impact of the tsunami, and its impact on women in particular."• Action Aid Asia page• World Health Organisation Three months on - report planning for future. l