Monthly Market Risk Update: April 2024 [SlideShare]
Economy at a glance... January 2024
1. Economy…
at a glance
January 2024
1.3
-2.7
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Sep-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
May-23
Jul-23
Sep-23
Nov-23
Monthly
Y-o-y
% y-o-y change
Business turnover Spain (INE)
Nov. 23
y-o-y
-2.7%
1.3%
monthly
Foreign trade of goods Spain (M. Industry, Trade and Tourism)
Jan.-Nov. 23
€ 354,740.7 M
Imports
Exports
€ 391,899.0 M
y-o-y
-0.7%
y-o-y
-6.8%
Millions € cumulative Jan-Nov. each year
Total trade deficit
€ -37,158.3 M
▼41.6% y-o-y
Energy
€ -30,746.2 M
▼36.2% y-o-y
82.7%
Exports Jan.-Nov. 23 by regions
% var. By sectors
% y-o-y change
Private sector doubtful loans Spain (Bank of Spain)
Nov. 23
of total credit
3.57%
0.04%
monthly
-6.6%
y-o-y
€ 42,396 M
% doubtful loans/total loans
13.62
3.57
3
5
7
9
11
13
Nov-13
Nov-14
Nov-15
Nov-16
Nov-17
Nov-18
Nov-19
Nov-20
Nov-21
Nov-22
Nov-23
42,396.2
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
Nov-13
Nov-14
Nov-15
Nov-16
Nov-17
Nov-18
Nov-19
Nov-20
Nov-21
Nov-22
Nov-23
Doubtful loans ratio
Millions €
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Trade deficit
Exports
Imports
Nov.21 – Nov.23
2. Economy… at a glance, a publication of the “Círculo de Empresarios” produced by its Department of Economy, contains information and opinion from reliable sources. However, the “Círculo de
Empresarios” does not guarantee its accuracy and does not take responsibility for any errors or omissions. This document is merely informative. As a result, the “Círculo de Empresarios” is not responsible
for any uses that may be made of the publication. The opinions and estimates of the Department can be modified without prior warning.
1º
2º
3º
84.1
99.5
89.9
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
Q4
19
Q1
20
Q2
20
Q3
20
Q4
20
Q1
21
Q2
21
Q3
21
Q4
21
Q1
22
Q2
22
Q3
22
Q4
22
Q1
23
Q2
23
Q3
23
€ 12.7 tr
10
11
12
13
Q4
19
Q1
20
Q2
20
Q3
20
Q4
20
Q1
21
Q2
21
Q3
21
Q4
21
Q1
22
Q2
22
Q3
22
Q4
22
Q1
23
Q2
23
Q3
23
Millions of people
(data Oxford Economics 2023 excep. China)
China population (Statista and Oxford Economics)
2023
1,409 million
% y-o-y change and billions of people
Exc. Hong Kong and Macao
* Statista forecasts
-0.15%
y-o-y
2028*
1,405 million
Public debt Eurozone (Eurostat)
€ 12.72 tr
of GDP
89.9%
Q3 23
+4.0%
y-o-y
+0.9%
quarterly
▼ in debt to GDP
ratio due to ▲ in
GDP greater than ▲
in debt in absolute
terms
% GDP
Tr € % GDP
+25.6%
By countries Q3 23
Difference in pp Debt as % of GDP r/ Q4 19 (pre-pandemic)
0,8
0,9
1,0
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
-0,2
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,6
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024*
2025*
2026*
2027*
2028*
bn (right axis) % y-o-y change
Spain, 2nd economy
with the highest ▲ of %
debt/GDP since Q4 19
after France
Debt % GDP