1. The 2017 Argentine economy saw GDP growth, lower inflation, increased investment and private consumption, and falling unemployment.
2. Primary fiscal deficit and primary spending as a percentage of GDP both fell simultaneously for the first time in over 100 years.
3. Tax burden as a percentage of GDP also declined for the second consecutive year, lowering the tax pressure on the economy.
2. 2017 en perspectiva
2017 was the first in more than 100 years where primary fiscal deficit and the measured as a
percentage of GDP fell simultanously, the actual primary expenditure, the Low inflation and the
economy grows.
Sí
No
1901
1905
1909
1913
1917
1921
1925
1929
1933
1937
1941
1945
1949
1953
1957
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
2013
2017
Source: INDEC, Treasury, OJF and Asoc., Institutes of Statistics of the Subnationational states.
Did primary
expenditure fell in real
terms?
Did the tax burden fell
as a percentage of
GDP?
Did inflation fall?
Did primary
expenditure fall as a
percentage of GDP?
Did GDP grow?
3. The longest expansion since 2011
There are already 6 trimester of GDP growth and we project a 2018 growth.
680
690
700
710
720
730
I-11
II-11
III-11
IV-11
I-12
II-12
III-12
IV-12
I-13
II-13
III-13
IV-13
I-14
II-14
III-14
IV-14
I-15
II-15
III-15
IV-15
I-16
II-16
III-16
IV-16
I-17
II-17
III-17
IV-17(p)
5 Trimestres
4 Trimestres 6 Trimestres
Source: INDEC and projections from the Ministry of the Treasury
GDP without seasonality (in billions of pesos of 2004)
4. Investment leads growth and is accompanied by consumption
Investment is the main driver of growth and private consumption is growing at a higher pace
than GDP
0,4%
-2,0%
0,9%
4,5%
-3,8%
-1,9%-2,2%
-5,1%
-1,4%
0,3%
3,7%
5,7%
2.8%-3.0%
10,8%
3,7%
1,7%
0,7%
12,8%
PBI Inversión Consumo Privado Consumo Público Exportaciones Importaciones
2012-2015
2016
2017 (e)
Fuente: INDEC y proyección del Ministerio de Hacienda
Components of GDP (year-on-year variation)
5. 5
Investment in millons of 2004 pesos and interanual variation
Source: INDEC and projection of the Treasury
In 2017 the investment reached its maximum increase in six years and this will allow us to
continue growing in the future.
The increase in investment makes growth more sustainable
-7,1%
2,3%
-6,8%
3,8%
-5,1%
10,8%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
125.000
130.000
135.000
140.000
145.000
150.000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Var i.a.(eje der.) Inversión
6. 6
Private consumption at record levels
Source: INDEC and estimates and projections by the Ministry of Finance
Private consumption in millions of pesos of 2004 and year-on-year variation
Private consumption recovered in 2017 and is already at its highest historical level.
1,1%
3,6%
-4,4%
3,5%
-1,4%
3,7%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
485.000
490.000
495.000
500.000
505.000
510.000
515.000
520.000
525.000
530.000
535.000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Var i.a.(eje der.) Consumo privado
7. 7
The construction in a historical maximum
Construction is one of the most dynamic sectors of the economy. The series without seasonality
It is at its historical maximum level. Since March accumulates 9 months with growth double-digit
year-on-year and in October to 25.3 %, the highest variation of the last 11 years.
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
ene-14 jun-14 nov-14 abr-15 sep-15 feb-16 jul-16 dic-16 may-17 oct-17
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Isac var i.a. Isac s.e. (eje der.)
Synthetic Indicator of Construction Activity
8. The mortgage credit boom allows thousands of families
access to own housing
In 2017 there were granted mortgage loans for 69,900 million pesos, what it meant that could
be acquired, built or refurbished about 1,460,000 square meters of housing, a record historical.
New mortgage loans year (% of GDP and thousands of square meters of living place)
-1.500
-1.000
-500
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
-0,6%
-0,4%
-0,2%
0,0%
0,2%
0,4%
0,6%
0,8%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% del PBI En miles de metros cuadrados de vivienda (eje der.)
Source: BCRA, UADE, Reporte Inmobiliario y ZonaProp
9. Utilitarian vehicles production pushes automotive expansion
Specialization is essential for more trade. In 2017 the production of utilitarian vehicles increased
16.0% and pushed the total production of the automotive sector, which (weighing utilitarians
and automobiles due to their relative price) increased 6.9% in 2017. Exports increased and the
destinations diversified.
Sourcee: Treasury based in ADEFA. The total ponders automobiles and utilitarians according to its relative price.
Utilitarian and total production in the automotive sector (year-on-year variation)
25,4%
18,6%
14,5%
17,2%
19,8% 19,0% 17,9%
19,9%
21,7%
18,1%
16,0%
8,8%
3,3%
0,3%
4,6%
7,2% 7,2% 7,2%
8,8%
10,5%
8,7%
6,9%
ene-17 feb-17 mar-17 abr-17 may-17 jun-17 jul-17 ago-17 sep-17 oct-17 nov-17 dic-17
Utilitarios
Total
87.5% 64.2%
10. Industrial exports grow at the highest rate of
the last 7 years and boost the sector
On the road to better insertion into the world, the
industrial complex is not far behind. The
exports of manufactures of industrial origin as a whole
grew throughout the
year.
On the road to better insertion into the world, the industrial complex is not far behind. The
exports of manufactures of industrial origin as a whole grew throughout the year.
Industrial exports in quantities (year-on-year variation)
-2%
-19%
-9%
2%
4%
12%
-4%
-11%
-13%
-15%
-12%
-8%
-14%
-17%
-19%
-25%
-18%
-5%
3%
10%
12% 12%
9%
Source: INDEC
11. 11
Increase in agricultural production
The agricultural sector, our main exporting complex, was one of the largest
growth in the year. This is crucial for the dynamisation of domestic activity
as to guarantee the sustainability of external accounts.
15
20
25
30
35
40
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160 Producción (toneladas) Superficie Sembrada (hectáreas) - eje der.
Production and area sown (in millions of hectares and tons)
Source: Treasury
12. The real salary and employment grew
The real salary and employment grew. The wage bill measures the total wages that are paid and
charged in the economy (the salary average multiplied by the number of workers). It grew at an
average rate of 4.7% in the first 11 months of the year.
Salary mass and y components, employment y salaries (year on year variation)
4,2%
1,1%
1,9%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
ene-13
mar-13
may-13
jul-13
sep-13
nov-13
ene-14
mar-14
may-14
jul-14
sep-14
nov-14
ene-15
mar-15
may-15
jul-15
sep-15
nov-15
ene-16
mar-16
may-16
jul-16
sep-16
nov-16
ene-17
mar-17
may-17
jul-17
sep-17
nov-17
Masa salarial Empleo Salario Real
Source: Treasury
13. 6.170.000
6.180.000
6.190.000
6.200.000
6.210.000
6.220.000
6.230.000
6.240.000
6.250.000
oct-16 nov-16 dic-16 ene-17 feb-17 mar-17 abr-17 may-17 jun-17 jul-17 ago-17 sep-17 oct-17
Employment grows at a steady pace
In October 2017 there were 1.2% more salaried employees registered in the private sector than
a year before, and between January and October the number increased at an average rate of
0.1% per month (approx. 6.000 new employees each month).
Salaried workers registered in the private sector, series without seasonality
Source: Ministry of Work an Social Security
+72.258 workers
(+1,2%)
14. The unemployment rate falls and the employment rate grows
The creation of employment resulted in an improvement in employment indicators. The rate of
unemployment fell steadily throughout the year and in the year-on-year comparison, taking into
account that in 2016 it was 9.3% (2 Trim) and 8,5% (3 Trim).
9,2%
8,7%
8,3%
40%
41%
42%
43%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
I-17 II-17 III-17
Tasa de desempleo Tasa de empleo (eje der.)
Source: INDEC
Unemployment rate and Employment rate
15. Inflation is the lowest in six years and core inflation, the
minor since there is registration
Inflation is an obstacle to long-term growth and liquefies wages. While the periods of
disinflation are not linear, the variations of the general and core price index decreased in the
year reaching core inflation lowest since there is registration.
Anual inflation
24,6% 25,6% 26,6%
38,1%
26,9%
39,3%
24,8%
27,1%
35,7%
30,0%
33,7%
21,1%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Inflación general
Inflación núcleo
17. We have exceeded the fiscal goal
Predictability is essential. Throughout the year they overcame the quarterly goals of primary
fiscal deficit without increasing the tax burden. At the end of the year, goals for reduction of the
deficit for 2020, in line with the reduction of 1 point of GDP per year.
4,6%
3.9%
4,8%
4,2%
3,2%
2,2%
1,2%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Déficit primario Meta
Primary Deficit (% PBI)
18. Income grew more than Expenses
22,5%
38,2%
21,8%
26,8%
28,0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Ingresos Gasto primario Ingresos sin Blanqueo
18
Income and primary expenditure (year on year variation)
For the first time in 13 years, revenues grew more than primary expenditure.
19. We reduced the tax pressure for the second consecutive year
A high tax pressure discourages private investment. This year, just like last year, we lower the tax
pressure after more than a decade of practically increases continuous
Fiscal Pressure (% GDP)
Source: Treasury. The collection includes money laundering resources..
15,6%
14,9%
17,7%
20,3% 20,5% 21,0%
22,3%
23,4%
24,4% 24,7% 24,8%
25,8% 25,6% 25,5%
26,3% 25,7%
25,1%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
20. The excessive public spending Stops to be a burden that
conspires against development
A more efficient State is the key to ensuring the sustainability of public accounts and providing a
frame appropriate for development. In 2017 the consolidated primary expenditure of the Nation
and provinces was reduced by almost two points
23,2 23,7 24,1
22,5 23,3 23,6
25,9 24,9 25,7
22,4 23 23,5 24,8 26
28,7 30,1
34,6 33,8 34,9
36,6
38,3 39,3
42,1 42,3
40,4 39,0
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018(p)
Gasto primario provincias y municipios Gasto primario nación
Source: Treasury
Primary Expenditures consolidated (% of GDP)
21. We reduced spending without neglecting the sectors
of fewer resources
67% 65%
72% 76%
19% 22%
15% 12%
7% 7% 7% 6%
7% 6% 6% 6%
2003-2015 2016 2017 Presupuesto 2018
Servicios de defensa
y seguridad
Administración
gubernamental
Servicios económicos
Servicios sociales
Primary Spending of GOP by means-function
We are reducing spending without neglecting the most important thing. In real terms, primary
spending fell, while social benefits increased. Thus, social spending represented in 2017, and will
do so in 2018, the largest percentage of public spending in recent years