Process Analytics and Intelligence
Semantics and other Frontiers
Michael zur Muehlen, Ph.D.
Center for Business Process Innovation
Howe School of Technology Management
Stevens Institute of Technology
Hoboken NJ
Michael.zurMuehlen@stevens.edu
                                         1
Why Care About BPM Analytics?
   When Workflow Management Systems first began to proliferate (1990s)
   there was little attention paid to the data generated by the running
   processes.
   Most thought of this as an audit trail, not a source of information for
   process improvement.
   We now understand that the historical record contains valuable
   information essential to a well orchestrated continuous process
   improvement program.
   Correctly designed analytics is the starting point for providing
   business process intelligence.
   The analytics drives both real-time monitoring and predictive
   optimization of the executing Business Process Management System.



                                                                             2
BPM 1.0:
Managing Work   3
Industrial BPM
  Paper                                            Trading


                       Order                     Acct. Mgmt.
  Phone
                     Management
                      Process
   Fax                                            Payments


  E-mail                                         Complaints

           Production Management
 Input     Transparency                            Job
Channels   Automation, but only if not            Types
                 too complex / rare
                 other regulatory requirements
                 no economies of scale

                                                               4
Industrial Back-Office
                  Search processes using
                  ‣technical and
                  ‣business criteria
                  Display shows
                  ‣status
                  ‣start time
                  ‣end time
                  ‣instance data




                                           5
Task Management




                  6
Trends
 Don’t focus on what works - focus on exceptions
 Search is still manual - need suggestions (Amazon for BPM)
 Workflow isn’t dead - not even close




                                                              7
Analytics Capabilities drive Maturity
                                                    Business Process Management
                                                               Maturity



   Strategic
   Alignment                   Governance              Method                     IT                  People                 Culture


Process Improvement           Process Roles and     Process Design &       Process Design &        Process Skills &      Process Values &
        Plan                   Responsibilities        Modeling               Modeling                Expertise               Beliefs



Strategy & Process             Decision Making           Process                Process         Process Education &     Process Attitudes &
Capability Linkage                                  Implementation &       Implementation &
                                  Processes            Executions             Executions             Learning               Behaviors



                             Process Metrics &      Process Control &      Process Control &    Process Collaboration    Responsiveness to
Process Architecture        Performance Linkage                                                   & Communication
                                                      Measurement            Measurement                                  Process Change



  Process Output            Process Management    Process Improvement    Process Improvement                            Leadership Attention
                                 Standards            & Innovation           & Innovation        Process Knowledge
   Measurement                                                                                                              to Process



Process Customers &         Process Management       Process Project &      Process Project &   Process Management         Process Social
    Stakeholders                  Controls        Program Management     Program Management           Leaders                Networks

         Source: Rosemann & DeBruin 2006
9
Process Measures Framework


     Voice of the
      Customer




                                            10
                             Davis (2006)
Process Measures Framework
Customer Needs


Customer Issues
          Voice of the
SLGs       Customer




                                            10
                             Davis (2006)
Process Measures Framework
Customer Needs           Translates into   Process Objectives

Customer Issues
          Voice of the
SLGs       Customer




                                                                           10
                                                            Davis (2006)
Process Measures Framework
Customer Needs                       Translates into      Process Objectives

Customer Issues
          Voice of the
SLGs       Customer


                                          s
                                          ce
                                        en
                                     flu
                                   In



                   In
                     flu
                        en
                          ce
                               s
Product Strategy


Operational Strategy

Business Strategy                    Translates into   Process Efficiency Targets
                                                                                            10
                                                                             Davis (2006)
Process Measures Framework
Customer Needs                       Translates into      Process Objectives

Customer Issues
          Voice of the
SLGs       Customer


                                          s
                                          ce
                                        en
                                     flu
                                   In



                   In
                     flu
                        en
                          ce
                               s
Product Strategy
                                                                        Voice of the
                                                                         Process
Operational Strategy

Business Strategy                    Translates into   Process Efficiency Targets
                                                                                            10
                                                                             Davis (2006)
Process Measures Framework
Customer Needs                       Translates into       Process Objectives

Customer Issues                                                       Measures
          Voice of the
SLGs       Customer
                                                       Key Goal Indicator (KGI)
                                          s
                                          ce
                                        en
                                     flu
                                   In



                   In
                     flu
                        en
                          ce
                               s
Product Strategy
                                                                         Voice of the
                                                                          Process
Operational Strategy

Business Strategy                    Translates into    Process Efficiency Targets
                                                                                             10
                                                                              Davis (2006)
Process Measures Framework
Customer Needs                       Translates into       Process Objectives

Customer Issues                                                       Measures
          Voice of the
SLGs       Customer
                                                       Key Goal Indicator (KGI)
                                          s
                                          ce
                                        en
                                     flu
                                   In



                   In
                     flu
                        en
                                                          Key Performance
                          ce
                               s                           Indicator (KPI)
Product Strategy
                                                                         Voice of the
                                                                          Process
Operational Strategy                                                   Measures
Business Strategy                    Translates into    Process Efficiency Targets
                                                                                             10
                                                                              Davis (2006)
Analytics


            11
Business Process Analytics

                                               Process              Business           Process
                                              Controlling      Activity Monitoring   Intelligence


  Processing of    Event Detection &                              Dashboards         Simulation
 Context Events       Correlation              Historical
                                               Analytics           Rule-based        Data Mining
                                                                   Notification
                                                                                     Optimization




                                                  Event Bus




                           EAI
External Event                                     ERP                 ECM               BPM
   Sources
                  Legacy         Custom


                                               Enterprise IT Infrastructure


            Process Analytics Architecture
                                                                                                    12
Analytics Architecture                                                                                                                                Process
                                                                                                                                                     Controlling



                                                                                                                                                     Historical
                                                                                                                                                     Analytics



                                                                 Analysis Engine

                      AE Database (relational or triple store)                                                                                       Client


Process                            Staging and                                 Fact and                                   OLAP and
                                      Event                   Publish         Dimension              Process                             Queries
Engine                                                                          Tables
                                                                                                                          DataMining
                                     Queue                                                                                Databases
 UDFs, XPDL




                                                                                   Cube Processing




                                                                                                                                                       Reports
 Participants,




                                            Analysis Engine
                    Context Data




                                                                    Exposes




                                                                                      Triggers
                                               Controls




                                                                                                               Monitors
                                                                     UDFs




                                                                                                                DBs
      Web Service                                                   Administration                                                     Business Operations




                                                                                                                                                                   13
Real Time




BAM Dashboards
                         Dashboards


                          Alerts &
                          Actions




   Status indicators
   Queue Counts
   Counters
   Goal/KPI status and
   trends




                                      14
Real Time


Actions & Alerts                 Dashboards


                                  Alerts &
                                  Actions




               KPI Evaluation
Process            Goals
Metrics          Thresholds
               Risk Mitigation


                                    Email and
                                    Cellphone
                  Actions
                                    notification

              Web Service Call
                    or
               Execute Script        Process
                                      Event
              Action Schedule        Triggers



                                                  15
Real Time


Actions & Alerts                          Dashboards


                                           Alerts &

                                 Rules     Actions



                                 Engine


               KPI Evaluation
Process            Goals
Metrics          Thresholds
               Risk Mitigation


                                             Email and
                                             Cellphone
                  Actions
                                             notification

              Web Service Call
                    or
               Execute Script                 Process
                                               Event
              Action Schedule                 Triggers



                                                           15
Real Time




Real Time Management
                                                                                                 Dashboards


                                                                                                    Alerts &
                                                                                                    Actions
           Business   Business-­relevant
             Value    Event occurs




      Value lost
       through                         Event data
        latency                        stored           Analysis
                                                        information
                                                        delivered        Action taken




                              Data          Analysis          Decision                  Time
                             Latency        Latency           Latency
                                   Infrastructure
                                      Latency
                                                 Reaction
                                                  Time




                                                                                          Source: compare Hackathorn, 2002




                                                                                                                        16
Real Time




Real Time Management
                                                                                                  Dashboards


                                                                                                     Alerts &
                                                                                                     Actions
           Business   Business-­relevant
             Value    Event occurs




      Value lost
       through                         Event data
        latency                        stored            Analysis
                                                         information
                                                         delivered        Action taken




                              Data          Analysis           Decision                  Time
                             Latency        Latency            Latency
                                   Infrastructure
                                      Latency
                                                 Reaction
                                                  Time



                           Acceleration through real-­
                                time Monitoring


                                                                                           Source: compare Hackathorn, 2002




                                                                                                                         16
Real Time




Real Time Management
                                                                                                                Dashboards


                                                                                                                   Alerts &
                                                                                                                   Actions
                         Business   Business-­relevant
                           Value    Event occurs




       Value
   proposition of   Value lost
     real-­time      through                         Event data
    Monitoring        latency                        stored            Analysis
                                                                       information
                                                                       delivered        Action taken




                                            Data          Analysis           Decision                  Time
                                           Latency        Latency            Latency
                                                 Infrastructure
                                                    Latency
                                                               Reaction
                                                                Time



                                         Acceleration through real-­
                                              time Monitoring


                                                                                                         Source: compare Hackathorn, 2002




                                                                                                                                       16
Predictive




Simulation
                                                                              Simulation


                                                                              Data Mining


                                                                              Optimization
  Why would you want to build simulation models?
      A simulation model lets you do what-ifs
           What if I changed my staff schedules
           What if I bought a faster check sorter
           What if the number of applications increased dramatically because of a marketing
           campaign
  The simulation results predict the effect on critical KPIs such as end-to-
  end cycle time and cost per processed application.
  Simulation plays an important role in continuous process improvement




                                                                                              17
Predictive




Simulation Technology
                                                                       Simulation


                                                                       Data Mining


                                                                      Optimization



  Simulation is useful to make the business case for new processes
  Simulation models for existing processes are great for tweaking
  But Businesses don’t operate one process at a time
      Resource dependencies across many processes
      Questions such as staff training/assignment can’t be answered by single
      simulation
      Even experienced modelers can use some suggestions




                                                                                     18
Predictive

Simulation


Data Mining


Optimization




               19
Predictive

              Simulation


              Data Mining


              Optimization




Holy Grail?

                             20
Semantics & Context




                      21
Design         Process           BPMN Semantics
 Time      Semantics (e.g.,      (e.g., objects +
                                                      Payload Semantics
            activity labels)       connectors)
                                                    (e.g., data objects +
                                                         messages)

 Metadata (e.g. author,                                 Layout (placement
   version, validity)                                      of objects)




                                                    Payload Instance
                          Processing Behavior       Semantics (e.g.,
                            (e.g., audit trail)       case data +
 Run                                                  messages)
 Time
                                                                            2
Semantics? OW(L)!   23
Cf.: Rosemann (2008)   24
Open Issues
 Predicting Workflow Performance Based on Case Data
     Scheduling
 Dealing with Events outside of Workflow Scope
     Non-Workflow Systems
 Modeling Complex Event Processing
     Reactive/Adaptive Systems
 Linking Technical Metrics to (Business) Goals/Metrics
     Traceability




                                                         25
Thank You
Michael zur Muehlen, Ph.D.
Center for Business Process Innovation
Howe School of Technology Management
Stevens Institute of Technology
Castle Point on the Hudson
Hoboken, NJ 07030
Phone: 	

   +1 (201) 216-8293
Fax:	

 	

  +1 (201) 216-5385
E-mail:	

   mzurmuehlen@stevens.edu
Web:	

     http://www.stevens.edu/bpm
slides: 	

  www.slideshare.net/mzurmuehlen




                                              26

Business Process Intelligence Keynote

  • 1.
    Process Analytics andIntelligence Semantics and other Frontiers Michael zur Muehlen, Ph.D. Center for Business Process Innovation Howe School of Technology Management Stevens Institute of Technology Hoboken NJ Michael.zurMuehlen@stevens.edu 1
  • 2.
    Why Care AboutBPM Analytics? When Workflow Management Systems first began to proliferate (1990s) there was little attention paid to the data generated by the running processes. Most thought of this as an audit trail, not a source of information for process improvement. We now understand that the historical record contains valuable information essential to a well orchestrated continuous process improvement program. Correctly designed analytics is the starting point for providing business process intelligence. The analytics drives both real-time monitoring and predictive optimization of the executing Business Process Management System. 2
  • 3.
  • 4.
    Industrial BPM Paper Trading Order Acct. Mgmt. Phone Management Process Fax Payments E-mail Complaints Production Management Input Transparency Job Channels Automation, but only if not Types too complex / rare other regulatory requirements no economies of scale 4
  • 5.
    Industrial Back-Office Search processes using ‣technical and ‣business criteria Display shows ‣status ‣start time ‣end time ‣instance data 5
  • 6.
  • 7.
    Trends Don’t focuson what works - focus on exceptions Search is still manual - need suggestions (Amazon for BPM) Workflow isn’t dead - not even close 7
  • 8.
    Analytics Capabilities driveMaturity Business Process Management Maturity Strategic Alignment Governance Method IT People Culture Process Improvement Process Roles and Process Design & Process Design & Process Skills & Process Values & Plan Responsibilities Modeling Modeling Expertise Beliefs Strategy & Process Decision Making Process Process Process Education & Process Attitudes & Capability Linkage Implementation & Implementation & Processes Executions Executions Learning Behaviors Process Metrics & Process Control & Process Control & Process Collaboration Responsiveness to Process Architecture Performance Linkage & Communication Measurement Measurement Process Change Process Output Process Management Process Improvement Process Improvement Leadership Attention Standards & Innovation & Innovation Process Knowledge Measurement to Process Process Customers & Process Management Process Project & Process Project & Process Management Process Social Stakeholders Controls Program Management Program Management Leaders Networks Source: Rosemann & DeBruin 2006
  • 9.
  • 10.
    Process Measures Framework Voice of the Customer 10 Davis (2006)
  • 11.
    Process Measures Framework CustomerNeeds Customer Issues Voice of the SLGs Customer 10 Davis (2006)
  • 12.
    Process Measures Framework CustomerNeeds Translates into Process Objectives Customer Issues Voice of the SLGs Customer 10 Davis (2006)
  • 13.
    Process Measures Framework CustomerNeeds Translates into Process Objectives Customer Issues Voice of the SLGs Customer s ce en flu In In flu en ce s Product Strategy Operational Strategy Business Strategy Translates into Process Efficiency Targets 10 Davis (2006)
  • 14.
    Process Measures Framework CustomerNeeds Translates into Process Objectives Customer Issues Voice of the SLGs Customer s ce en flu In In flu en ce s Product Strategy Voice of the Process Operational Strategy Business Strategy Translates into Process Efficiency Targets 10 Davis (2006)
  • 15.
    Process Measures Framework CustomerNeeds Translates into Process Objectives Customer Issues Measures Voice of the SLGs Customer Key Goal Indicator (KGI) s ce en flu In In flu en ce s Product Strategy Voice of the Process Operational Strategy Business Strategy Translates into Process Efficiency Targets 10 Davis (2006)
  • 16.
    Process Measures Framework CustomerNeeds Translates into Process Objectives Customer Issues Measures Voice of the SLGs Customer Key Goal Indicator (KGI) s ce en flu In In flu en Key Performance ce s Indicator (KPI) Product Strategy Voice of the Process Operational Strategy Measures Business Strategy Translates into Process Efficiency Targets 10 Davis (2006)
  • 17.
  • 18.
    Business Process Analytics Process Business Process Controlling Activity Monitoring Intelligence Processing of Event Detection & Dashboards Simulation Context Events Correlation Historical Analytics Rule-based Data Mining Notification Optimization Event Bus EAI External Event ERP ECM BPM Sources Legacy Custom Enterprise IT Infrastructure Process Analytics Architecture 12
  • 19.
    Analytics Architecture Process Controlling Historical Analytics Analysis Engine AE Database (relational or triple store) Client Process Staging and Fact and OLAP and Event Publish Dimension Process Queries Engine Tables DataMining Queue Databases UDFs, XPDL Cube Processing Reports Participants, Analysis Engine Context Data Exposes Triggers Controls Monitors UDFs DBs Web Service Administration Business Operations 13
  • 20.
    Real Time BAM Dashboards Dashboards Alerts & Actions Status indicators Queue Counts Counters Goal/KPI status and trends 14
  • 21.
    Real Time Actions &Alerts Dashboards Alerts & Actions KPI Evaluation Process Goals Metrics Thresholds Risk Mitigation Email and Cellphone Actions notification Web Service Call or Execute Script Process Event Action Schedule Triggers 15
  • 22.
    Real Time Actions &Alerts Dashboards Alerts & Rules Actions Engine KPI Evaluation Process Goals Metrics Thresholds Risk Mitigation Email and Cellphone Actions notification Web Service Call or Execute Script Process Event Action Schedule Triggers 15
  • 23.
    Real Time Real TimeManagement Dashboards Alerts & Actions Business Business-­relevant Value Event occurs Value lost through Event data latency stored Analysis information delivered Action taken Data Analysis Decision Time Latency Latency Latency Infrastructure Latency Reaction Time Source: compare Hackathorn, 2002 16
  • 24.
    Real Time Real TimeManagement Dashboards Alerts & Actions Business Business-­relevant Value Event occurs Value lost through Event data latency stored Analysis information delivered Action taken Data Analysis Decision Time Latency Latency Latency Infrastructure Latency Reaction Time Acceleration through real-­ time Monitoring Source: compare Hackathorn, 2002 16
  • 25.
    Real Time Real TimeManagement Dashboards Alerts & Actions Business Business-­relevant Value Event occurs Value proposition of Value lost real-­time through Event data Monitoring latency stored Analysis information delivered Action taken Data Analysis Decision Time Latency Latency Latency Infrastructure Latency Reaction Time Acceleration through real-­ time Monitoring Source: compare Hackathorn, 2002 16
  • 26.
    Predictive Simulation Simulation Data Mining Optimization Why would you want to build simulation models? A simulation model lets you do what-ifs What if I changed my staff schedules What if I bought a faster check sorter What if the number of applications increased dramatically because of a marketing campaign The simulation results predict the effect on critical KPIs such as end-to- end cycle time and cost per processed application. Simulation plays an important role in continuous process improvement 17
  • 27.
    Predictive Simulation Technology Simulation Data Mining Optimization Simulation is useful to make the business case for new processes Simulation models for existing processes are great for tweaking But Businesses don’t operate one process at a time Resource dependencies across many processes Questions such as staff training/assignment can’t be answered by single simulation Even experienced modelers can use some suggestions 18
  • 28.
  • 29.
    Predictive Simulation Data Mining Optimization Holy Grail? 20
  • 30.
  • 31.
    Design Process BPMN Semantics Time Semantics (e.g., (e.g., objects + Payload Semantics activity labels) connectors) (e.g., data objects + messages) Metadata (e.g. author, Layout (placement version, validity) of objects) Payload Instance Processing Behavior Semantics (e.g., (e.g., audit trail) case data + Run messages) Time 2
  • 32.
  • 33.
  • 34.
    Open Issues PredictingWorkflow Performance Based on Case Data Scheduling Dealing with Events outside of Workflow Scope Non-Workflow Systems Modeling Complex Event Processing Reactive/Adaptive Systems Linking Technical Metrics to (Business) Goals/Metrics Traceability 25
  • 35.
    Thank You Michael zurMuehlen, Ph.D. Center for Business Process Innovation Howe School of Technology Management Stevens Institute of Technology Castle Point on the Hudson Hoboken, NJ 07030 Phone: +1 (201) 216-8293 Fax: +1 (201) 216-5385 E-mail: mzurmuehlen@stevens.edu Web: http://www.stevens.edu/bpm slides: www.slideshare.net/mzurmuehlen 26