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bio (diverse) city crisis scenario: climate change matthew  coggan , rosanna  krauss , catherine  wilson
climate change matthew  coggan , rosanna  krauss , catherine  wilson (UNFCCC.) a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods
since 1900 the average global temperature has increased by 0.6 o C  1998 has been the warmest year since temperature recording began in 1861, whilst the 1990s were the warmest decade globally increased concentration of greenhouse gases as a result of human activity are substantially responsible for driving climate change (National Biodiversity and Climate Change Action Plan, 2007) matthew  coggan , rosanna  krauss , catherine  wilson increase in the number of heat waves warming of oceans retreat of glaciers and sea ice rise in sea level of 10-20 cm increase of heavy rainfall in many regions fewer frosts climate change global
since 1910 … both maximum and minimum temperatures have   increased, particularly since the mid 20 th  century, possibly due to post war industrialisation all of Australia recorded an increase in overnight temperatures annual total rainfall has shown a weak increase, especially in tropical areas and in eastern NSW (National Biodiversity and Climate Change Action Plan, 2007) matthew  coggan , rosanna  krauss , catherine  wilson Variations of Australian mean temperatures, 1910-2000 source: Karoly and Braganza 2004, Journal of Climate Australia's inconvenient truth ACF The  10 hottest years  on record have all occurred since 1994 during the last ice age the global average temperature was only  5 degrees  cooler than today ACF 1951 post war industrialization climate change australia
matthew  coggan , rosanna  krauss , catherine  wilson The 2003 drought cost  70,000 jobs ,  $13 billion  and cut  1.6% off GDP   ACF Higher inland temperature are likely to cause more  bushfires Australia's inconvenient truth ACF climate change australia
matthew  coggan , rosanna  krauss , catherine  wilson there has already been an increase of  0.7degrees   over the last 100 years CSIRO change in rainfall patterns have increased  salinity  and decreased soil fertility in the SW wheat belt Diamond. J Australias rainfall over the past fifty-four years. the darkest red areas indicate losses of more than 50mm of rain per decade, while the darkest blue have gained a similar amount. over the past half-century this equates to a 250mm increase or deficit national all of Australia's major cities and most of our productive agricultural land have received less rain because of climate change.  Flannery, T. climate change australia
matthew  coggan , rosanna  krauss , catherine  wilson predicted impacts most of Australia will warm by 0.4 – 2.0 o C  by 2030, and 1.0 - 6 o C  by 2070 annual rainfall will generally decrease in the south and east, whilst inland and coastal eastern  areas will experience wetter summers evaporation will increase annually and for all seasons average decreases in annual water balance are protected to range from about 40 to 120mm per degree of global warming extreme rainfall and tropical cyclones more intense CSIRO, National Biodiversity and Climate Change Action Plan, 2007 Up to  1 degree  change 70% increase in  droughts  in NSW Australian snow cover shrinks by 10-40%   ACF 1-2 degree  change 40% loss of core habitat for  eucalyptus  and 100%of Acacia species  eliminated in SW Australia 2-3 degree  change total devastation of the Great Barrier Reef due to coral bleaching 80% of  kakadu  wetland lost 3-4 degree  change 48% less water flow in the Murray Darling Basin 50% of the 65 species unique to the wet tropics will become extinct. 4-5 degree  change 60-90% loss of core habitat for Victoria and tropical mountains 50% of the  65 species  unique 180 days a year above 35 degrees in South Australia and Northern Territory above  5 degree  change 90-100% loss  of core habitat for most Australian vertebrates Dengue fever  transmission zone could reach Brisbane and Sydney  Stern Review climate change + biodiversity australia
matthew  coggan , rosanna  krauss , catherine  wilson modeling climate change from emissions to impact- (simplification as, in the real climate-human system, there will be feedbacks between many links in the chain) Stern Review  co2 emissions  as a result of human activities, such as land clearing natural process the earth is in a constant state of change combination human activity has accelerated the rate of change climate change + biodiversity catalysts
matthew  coggan , rosanna  krauss , catherine  wilson bleaching events  more frequent and severe one in every four   species spend a part of its life in a coral reef .45 degree  increase of sea surface temperature carbon dioxide   reducing rates of coral calcification income of   $1 billion   annually in direct value 1.6 million tourists  visit the great barrier reef region each year (National Biodiversity and Climate Change Action Plan, 2007) (Flannery, T., Weather Makers) http://www.reef.crc.org.au/publications/techreport/pdf/Harriott46.pdf climate change + biodiversity the great barrier reef
matthew  coggan , rosanna  krauss , catherine  wilson pollination carried out by insects and birds is roughly valued at   $3 billion  Archer. M Stern review economic value Shoalhaven River Dam by opting for water price reforms and public education aimed at reducing water usage, sydney has been able to postpone the building of the Shoalhaven River Dam, saving hundreds of millions of dollars and indirectly reducing loss of biodiversity the Aus native forests provide environmental benefits estimated to have the value of $14 billion  Archer. M the cost of acting later rather than now will be  5 -20 times greater climate change + biodiversity sydney
impacts on biodiversity reductions in the  geographic range  of species changes to the  timing  of species lifecycles changes in  population dynamics  and survival changes in the location of species habitat, however as a result of urban development the  opportunity  for species to relocate is greatly diminished loss of habitat  with raised sea levels and  more frequent flood events increases in the  risk of extinction  for species that are already vulnerable increased opportunity for  exotic  pioneer species (National Biodiversity and Climate Change Action Plan, 2007) matthew  coggan , rosanna  krauss , catherine  wilson climate change + biodiversity sydney
how old will you be? matthew  coggan , rosanna  krauss , catherine  wilson by   2030  +  2 degrees 70% increase in  droughts  in NSW 40% loss of core habitat for  eucalyptus cane toads  and  red ants  have invaded sydney threatening agriculture and native ecosystems   rapid  extinction of birds   16% increase in  evaporation   decreased rainfall  by 10% annually   sea level  rise of 2m   serious decline of  wetland ecosystems   invasion of  exotic   plant species   extreme disturbance to  breeding patterns   as sea temperature rises, we will experience more  severe storms   I WILL BE 44 YEARS OLD
matthew  coggan , rosanna  krauss , catherine  wilson “ Make the wrong choices now and future generations will live with a changed climate, depleted resources and without green space and biodiversity that contribute to our standard of living and our quality of life.” Tony Blair, March 2005 by   2070  +  6 degrees     I WILL BE 84 YEARS OLD 48% less water flow in the Murray Darling Basin 90-100% loss  of core habitat for most Australian vertebrates dengue fever  transmission zone could reach Brisbane and Sydney  Stern Review melting of ice caps   minimum  sea level increase of   5.5m   Gore, A
 

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Bio(diverse)city Climate Change | Biocity Studio

  • 1. bio (diverse) city crisis scenario: climate change matthew coggan , rosanna krauss , catherine wilson
  • 2. climate change matthew coggan , rosanna krauss , catherine wilson (UNFCCC.) a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods
  • 3. since 1900 the average global temperature has increased by 0.6 o C 1998 has been the warmest year since temperature recording began in 1861, whilst the 1990s were the warmest decade globally increased concentration of greenhouse gases as a result of human activity are substantially responsible for driving climate change (National Biodiversity and Climate Change Action Plan, 2007) matthew coggan , rosanna krauss , catherine wilson increase in the number of heat waves warming of oceans retreat of glaciers and sea ice rise in sea level of 10-20 cm increase of heavy rainfall in many regions fewer frosts climate change global
  • 4. since 1910 … both maximum and minimum temperatures have increased, particularly since the mid 20 th century, possibly due to post war industrialisation all of Australia recorded an increase in overnight temperatures annual total rainfall has shown a weak increase, especially in tropical areas and in eastern NSW (National Biodiversity and Climate Change Action Plan, 2007) matthew coggan , rosanna krauss , catherine wilson Variations of Australian mean temperatures, 1910-2000 source: Karoly and Braganza 2004, Journal of Climate Australia's inconvenient truth ACF The 10 hottest years on record have all occurred since 1994 during the last ice age the global average temperature was only 5 degrees cooler than today ACF 1951 post war industrialization climate change australia
  • 5. matthew coggan , rosanna krauss , catherine wilson The 2003 drought cost 70,000 jobs , $13 billion and cut 1.6% off GDP ACF Higher inland temperature are likely to cause more bushfires Australia's inconvenient truth ACF climate change australia
  • 6. matthew coggan , rosanna krauss , catherine wilson there has already been an increase of 0.7degrees over the last 100 years CSIRO change in rainfall patterns have increased salinity and decreased soil fertility in the SW wheat belt Diamond. J Australias rainfall over the past fifty-four years. the darkest red areas indicate losses of more than 50mm of rain per decade, while the darkest blue have gained a similar amount. over the past half-century this equates to a 250mm increase or deficit national all of Australia's major cities and most of our productive agricultural land have received less rain because of climate change. Flannery, T. climate change australia
  • 7. matthew coggan , rosanna krauss , catherine wilson predicted impacts most of Australia will warm by 0.4 – 2.0 o C by 2030, and 1.0 - 6 o C by 2070 annual rainfall will generally decrease in the south and east, whilst inland and coastal eastern areas will experience wetter summers evaporation will increase annually and for all seasons average decreases in annual water balance are protected to range from about 40 to 120mm per degree of global warming extreme rainfall and tropical cyclones more intense CSIRO, National Biodiversity and Climate Change Action Plan, 2007 Up to 1 degree change 70% increase in droughts in NSW Australian snow cover shrinks by 10-40% ACF 1-2 degree change 40% loss of core habitat for eucalyptus and 100%of Acacia species eliminated in SW Australia 2-3 degree change total devastation of the Great Barrier Reef due to coral bleaching 80% of kakadu wetland lost 3-4 degree change 48% less water flow in the Murray Darling Basin 50% of the 65 species unique to the wet tropics will become extinct. 4-5 degree change 60-90% loss of core habitat for Victoria and tropical mountains 50% of the 65 species unique 180 days a year above 35 degrees in South Australia and Northern Territory above 5 degree change 90-100% loss of core habitat for most Australian vertebrates Dengue fever transmission zone could reach Brisbane and Sydney Stern Review climate change + biodiversity australia
  • 8. matthew coggan , rosanna krauss , catherine wilson modeling climate change from emissions to impact- (simplification as, in the real climate-human system, there will be feedbacks between many links in the chain) Stern Review co2 emissions as a result of human activities, such as land clearing natural process the earth is in a constant state of change combination human activity has accelerated the rate of change climate change + biodiversity catalysts
  • 9. matthew coggan , rosanna krauss , catherine wilson bleaching events more frequent and severe one in every four species spend a part of its life in a coral reef .45 degree increase of sea surface temperature carbon dioxide reducing rates of coral calcification income of $1 billion annually in direct value 1.6 million tourists visit the great barrier reef region each year (National Biodiversity and Climate Change Action Plan, 2007) (Flannery, T., Weather Makers) http://www.reef.crc.org.au/publications/techreport/pdf/Harriott46.pdf climate change + biodiversity the great barrier reef
  • 10. matthew coggan , rosanna krauss , catherine wilson pollination carried out by insects and birds is roughly valued at $3 billion Archer. M Stern review economic value Shoalhaven River Dam by opting for water price reforms and public education aimed at reducing water usage, sydney has been able to postpone the building of the Shoalhaven River Dam, saving hundreds of millions of dollars and indirectly reducing loss of biodiversity the Aus native forests provide environmental benefits estimated to have the value of $14 billion Archer. M the cost of acting later rather than now will be 5 -20 times greater climate change + biodiversity sydney
  • 11. impacts on biodiversity reductions in the geographic range of species changes to the timing of species lifecycles changes in population dynamics and survival changes in the location of species habitat, however as a result of urban development the opportunity for species to relocate is greatly diminished loss of habitat with raised sea levels and more frequent flood events increases in the risk of extinction for species that are already vulnerable increased opportunity for exotic pioneer species (National Biodiversity and Climate Change Action Plan, 2007) matthew coggan , rosanna krauss , catherine wilson climate change + biodiversity sydney
  • 12. how old will you be? matthew coggan , rosanna krauss , catherine wilson by 2030 + 2 degrees 70% increase in droughts in NSW 40% loss of core habitat for eucalyptus cane toads and red ants have invaded sydney threatening agriculture and native ecosystems rapid extinction of birds 16% increase in evaporation decreased rainfall by 10% annually sea level rise of 2m serious decline of wetland ecosystems invasion of exotic plant species extreme disturbance to breeding patterns as sea temperature rises, we will experience more severe storms I WILL BE 44 YEARS OLD
  • 13. matthew coggan , rosanna krauss , catherine wilson “ Make the wrong choices now and future generations will live with a changed climate, depleted resources and without green space and biodiversity that contribute to our standard of living and our quality of life.” Tony Blair, March 2005 by 2070 + 6 degrees I WILL BE 84 YEARS OLD 48% less water flow in the Murray Darling Basin 90-100% loss of core habitat for most Australian vertebrates dengue fever transmission zone could reach Brisbane and Sydney Stern Review melting of ice caps minimum sea level increase of 5.5m Gore, A
  • 14.