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NNFCC


                            Bio-Based Products
                         Opportunities and Challenges




                                        Dr Adrian Higson
                                         February 2012



The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
NNFCC

 Background


                                                                   The production of renewable
                       economy
                                                                   biological resources and the
                                                                   conversion of these resources
                                                                   and waste streams into value
                                                                   added products such as food,
                                                                   feed, bio-based products and
                        bio-                                       bioenergy
                      economy


                                                                   Products that are wholly or partly
                                                                   derived from materials of
                     bio-based                                     biological origin excluding
                     products
                                                                   materials embedded in
                                                                   geological formations and/or
                                                                   fossilised

The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
NNFCC

 Market Dynamics




                                                                        Brand owner focus
  Climate change                  Politically          Consumer            Environment
 Mandates/Support                  Driven                Pull              Functionality




                                     Raw
  Volatility Hedging                                   Technology       Industrial Biotech
                                  Material
   Future proofing                                        Push            New chemistry
                                  Flexibility




The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
NNFCC

   Comparative Feedstock Pricing

                     Comparison of Commodity Indices (2005 = 100)
         300


         250


         200


         150


         100


          50


           0



                                  Crude Oil (Petroleum) Index (monthly)
                                  Commodity Agricultural Raw Materials index (monthly)
                                  Commodity Food Price Index (monthly)



The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials                    Source: IMF
NNFCC

   The value of biomass




                                                                        Increasing value

                                                                        Decreasing volume




The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
NNFCC

  Biomass – A love hate relationship!


                                 • Available on demand
         Strengths
                                 • Carbon source

                                 • Cost
    Weaknesses
                                 • Physical nature

                                 • Energy generation (heat and power)
  Opportunities                  • Liquid transport fuels
                                 • Chemicals and materials

                                 • Competition for land
            Threats
                                 • Environmental pressure

The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
NNFCC

  Developing the bio-based economy – The issues

• Varying levels of        • Large financing           • Food security   • Public
  support                    requirements              • Land rights       perception of
• Policy                     for capital                                   GM
  inconsistency              projects                                      technologies

Political                  Economics                   Social            Technology



                           • Climate change            • Biodiversity
                             agreements                • Land use
                           • Energy                      change
                             obligations

                           Legal                       Environment


The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
NNFCC

  Market building - European Lead Market Initiative


                                                    • Standards, labels and certification

                                                    • Legislation promoting market
                                                         development

                                                    • Product specific legislation

                                                    • Legislation related to biomass

                                                    • Encourage Green Public
                                                         Procurement

                                                    • Financing and funding of research



The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
NNFCC
 Bio Chemicals and Bio-Based Polymers
 (all areas of economy)


                                  Chemical Derivatives                  Naval Stores
 Market size                      Natural Products                      Oleochemicals
 ~ 50 million tones               Biopolymers                           Amino Acids
                                  Alcohols                              Aliphatic acids
                                  Other
                                                                 Fermentation Products

                                  54%
                                                                            7%
                                                                                          4%
                                                      17%

                                                                                               1%
                                                   7%                             5%
                                                          1%
                                        20%
                                                    1%


The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
NNFCC

Opportunity, complexity, and confusion




The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials   Source IEA Task 42, NNFCC
NNFCC

Today’s situation                           Hurdles
                                             • Lignocellulose deconstruction
                                             • Fermentation scope and yields
                                             • Downstream processing
                                            Game changers
                                             • Synthetic biology
                                             • Synthesis gas fermentation




The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
NNFCC

 Bio chemical outlook


                                 • Consumer preference
           Strengths             • Reduced carbon footprints & fossil energy use
                                 • Novel / Improved function

                                 • Low volume / High costs
        Weaknesses               • Immature supply chain
                                 • Market confusion

                                 • Oil price volatility
      Opportunities              • Capture C3 and C4 markets
                                 • Co-development with fuel industry

                                 • Feedstock supply
              Threats            • Alternative feedstocks (coal, gas)
                                 • Environmental pressure

The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
NNFCC
 Supply chain questions

          •    What’s the value proposition in bioplastics?
                – Function vs renewable content

          •    What does the environmental footprint look like?
                – greenhouse gas emissions, water impacts

          •    How big is the potential market opportunity/impact?      Time horizons
                – niche or mainstream                                       2020
                – true rate of development                                  2030
                                                                            2050
          •    What do the resource requirements look like?
                – Availability, price, impact on other markets

          •    How will technology develop?
                – Synthetic biology, perennial crops etc


The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
NNFCC

Bio chemical platforms – Novel or drop in?

                                 • Drop in – known targets and downstream products
          Strengths              • Novel – exploits attributes of biomass or biological
                                   processing

                                 • Drop in – number of unit operations required
      Weaknesses
                                 • Novel – requirement for product development

                                 • Drop in - rapid route to market through existing
    Opportunities                  infrastructure and know how
                                 • Novel – provides new or improved functionality

                                 • Drop in – production never achieves cost
                                   competitiveness
             Threats
                                 • Novel – immature supply chain and market
                                   awareness


The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
NNFCC

      Expansion of drop-in bio-based chemicals




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                                                                                                                                                                                                                              i
                                                                                                                                                                                             )
 Methanol

 Formic Acid

 Ethanol
 Ethylene
 Ethylene Oxide

 Ethylene Glycol (MEG)

 Acetic Acid
 Ethyl acetate

 Epichlorohydrin

 Acetone

 isoPropanol

 Propylene
      Bio chemicals




 Propylene Glycol

 1,3-Propanediol

 Lactic acid

 Acrylic Acid

 n-Butanol

 iso-Butanol

 iso-Butylene

 Butadiene

 Succinic acid

 2,3-Butanediol

 1,4-Butanediol

 Tetrahydrofuran

 Isoprene

 Adipic acid

 HMDA

 Benzene

 Toluene

 Paraxylene

 Terephthalic acid

 Styrene



The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
NNFCC

Bio chemical platforms


                                                                        60%
         Ethanol                Ethylene               Polyethylenes


                                                                        7%
                                                          Styrene
                                                                                Polymers/Rubbers
                                                         Monomer
Ethanol production ~ 60 million tonnes
                                                                        14%
Ethylene production ~ 110 million tonnes                 Ethylene
                                                                                    Polyester
                                                        Oxide/Glycol


                                                                        12%
                                                            EDC                       PVC



                                                                        7%
                                                           Other                  Alpha Olefins




                                                                                      PVA



The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials         Source: Nexant ChemSystems
NNFCC
Bio chemical platforms

                                                                                                      Polybutylene
             Succinic Acid           1,4-Butanediol                                                  Terephthalate



                                                         Tetrahydrofuran                           Copolyester Ethers
                 Deicers/Coolent
                                                                            Polytetramethylene
                                                                                Ether Glycol


                                                            Solvent                                  Thermoplastic
                   Plasticisers                                                                      Polyurethanes



                                      g-Butyrolactone                                                Spandex Fibres
                  Fuel Additives
                                                                      Fine & Speciality
                                                                         Chemicals




                                       N-Methyl -2-                                                    N-Vinyl-2-
                                       Pyrrolidone                           2-Pyrrolidone
                                                                                                       Pyrrolidone




                                     Fine & Speciality                      Fine & Speciality           Polyvinyl
                                        Chemicals                              Chemicals               Pyrrolidone


The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials                            Source: Nexant ChemSystems
NNFCC

Production regions
 Geographical regions offer different opportunities
 and pose different challenges e.g.

 • Feedstock sustainability and availability?
 • Access to skills and wider business support?
 • Access to downstream markets?




The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
NNFCC

Bio Polymer Scenarios - land requirements (2030)



                                 50
           % of available land




                                 40
                                 30
                                                                        Chemical driven
                                 20                                     Biofuel stalled
                                 10                                     Biofuel driven
                                  0                                     Bioeconomy




                                             Plastic demand – 428 million tonnes
                                             Land availability – 250-800 million ha (Source FAO)

The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
NNFCC

     Maximising resource use




                                      raw material




           Material Cycle                                       Energy Cycle
The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
NNFCC


    The NNFCC provides high quality, industry leading consultancy


                              for more information contact us

                               Email - enquiries@nnfcc.co.uk

                                        Twitter - @NNFCC

                                       +44 (0) 1904 435182



•   Future Market Analysis                            •   Technology evaluation & associated
•   Feedstock Logistics Planning                          due diligence
•   Sustainability Strategy                           •   Project feasibility assessment
    Development                                       •   Policy and regulatory support

The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials

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Bio-based products - Opportunities and Challenges

  • 1. NNFCC Bio-Based Products Opportunities and Challenges Dr Adrian Higson February 2012 The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
  • 2. NNFCC Background The production of renewable economy biological resources and the conversion of these resources and waste streams into value added products such as food, feed, bio-based products and bio- bioenergy economy Products that are wholly or partly derived from materials of bio-based biological origin excluding products materials embedded in geological formations and/or fossilised The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
  • 3. NNFCC Market Dynamics Brand owner focus Climate change Politically Consumer Environment Mandates/Support Driven Pull Functionality Raw Volatility Hedging Technology Industrial Biotech Material Future proofing Push New chemistry Flexibility The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
  • 4. NNFCC Comparative Feedstock Pricing Comparison of Commodity Indices (2005 = 100) 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Crude Oil (Petroleum) Index (monthly) Commodity Agricultural Raw Materials index (monthly) Commodity Food Price Index (monthly) The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials Source: IMF
  • 5. NNFCC The value of biomass Increasing value Decreasing volume The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
  • 6. NNFCC Biomass – A love hate relationship! • Available on demand Strengths • Carbon source • Cost Weaknesses • Physical nature • Energy generation (heat and power) Opportunities • Liquid transport fuels • Chemicals and materials • Competition for land Threats • Environmental pressure The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
  • 7. NNFCC Developing the bio-based economy – The issues • Varying levels of • Large financing • Food security • Public support requirements • Land rights perception of • Policy for capital GM inconsistency projects technologies Political Economics Social Technology • Climate change • Biodiversity agreements • Land use • Energy change obligations Legal Environment The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
  • 8. NNFCC Market building - European Lead Market Initiative • Standards, labels and certification • Legislation promoting market development • Product specific legislation • Legislation related to biomass • Encourage Green Public Procurement • Financing and funding of research The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
  • 9. NNFCC Bio Chemicals and Bio-Based Polymers (all areas of economy) Chemical Derivatives Naval Stores Market size Natural Products Oleochemicals ~ 50 million tones Biopolymers Amino Acids Alcohols Aliphatic acids Other Fermentation Products 54% 7% 4% 17% 1% 7% 5% 1% 20% 1% The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
  • 10. NNFCC Opportunity, complexity, and confusion The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials Source IEA Task 42, NNFCC
  • 11. NNFCC Today’s situation Hurdles • Lignocellulose deconstruction • Fermentation scope and yields • Downstream processing Game changers • Synthetic biology • Synthesis gas fermentation The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
  • 12. NNFCC Bio chemical outlook • Consumer preference Strengths • Reduced carbon footprints & fossil energy use • Novel / Improved function • Low volume / High costs Weaknesses • Immature supply chain • Market confusion • Oil price volatility Opportunities • Capture C3 and C4 markets • Co-development with fuel industry • Feedstock supply Threats • Alternative feedstocks (coal, gas) • Environmental pressure The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
  • 13. NNFCC Supply chain questions • What’s the value proposition in bioplastics? – Function vs renewable content • What does the environmental footprint look like? – greenhouse gas emissions, water impacts • How big is the potential market opportunity/impact? Time horizons – niche or mainstream 2020 – true rate of development 2030 2050 • What do the resource requirements look like? – Availability, price, impact on other markets • How will technology develop? – Synthetic biology, perennial crops etc The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
  • 14. NNFCC Bio chemical platforms – Novel or drop in? • Drop in – known targets and downstream products Strengths • Novel – exploits attributes of biomass or biological processing • Drop in – number of unit operations required Weaknesses • Novel – requirement for product development • Drop in - rapid route to market through existing Opportunities infrastructure and know how • Novel – provides new or improved functionality • Drop in – production never achieves cost competitiveness Threats • Novel – immature supply chain and market awareness The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
  • 15. NNFCC Expansion of drop-in bio-based chemicals Gr ee Ca Re nc Gl th ol ve yc ay Co Ta rd Go Ea M os Gl In lb i iw a( od et stm Companies working on bio chemicals ob Am ol Bi du Gl an Gr DS ab tT ye ot al st o an yr In ee ol Co Na M ec ba ar ec ria Bi Ge is/ di ic nB Ch An /R /G hn rp oe hn lB tu lB Ve Bi Bi aG M Re no Ex Bu No Ze Br Vi oq or em el en Bi M OP ol ne re io oA oc io ol io rd Du ich m nn Dr pl So lyc ny ac as ta lo oM og at ve lo yr Vi ch wo ue og te Pu en al rg X e m DO ica Ge or at AD TM P he eli te DS ov at ke m gic io re lva th ian zy ie do em ol ch ph ie t te Bi ies on be ra co rk ica CN er ch hs ax n ls n vo m nt W a ia ne s s m M M s o O s l y a c t s r t r i ) Methanol Formic Acid Ethanol Ethylene Ethylene Oxide Ethylene Glycol (MEG) Acetic Acid Ethyl acetate Epichlorohydrin Acetone isoPropanol Propylene Bio chemicals Propylene Glycol 1,3-Propanediol Lactic acid Acrylic Acid n-Butanol iso-Butanol iso-Butylene Butadiene Succinic acid 2,3-Butanediol 1,4-Butanediol Tetrahydrofuran Isoprene Adipic acid HMDA Benzene Toluene Paraxylene Terephthalic acid Styrene The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
  • 16. NNFCC Bio chemical platforms 60% Ethanol Ethylene Polyethylenes 7% Styrene Polymers/Rubbers Monomer Ethanol production ~ 60 million tonnes 14% Ethylene production ~ 110 million tonnes Ethylene Polyester Oxide/Glycol 12% EDC PVC 7% Other Alpha Olefins PVA The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials Source: Nexant ChemSystems
  • 17. NNFCC Bio chemical platforms Polybutylene Succinic Acid 1,4-Butanediol Terephthalate Tetrahydrofuran Copolyester Ethers Deicers/Coolent Polytetramethylene Ether Glycol Solvent Thermoplastic Plasticisers Polyurethanes g-Butyrolactone Spandex Fibres Fuel Additives Fine & Speciality Chemicals N-Methyl -2- N-Vinyl-2- Pyrrolidone 2-Pyrrolidone Pyrrolidone Fine & Speciality Fine & Speciality Polyvinyl Chemicals Chemicals Pyrrolidone The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials Source: Nexant ChemSystems
  • 18. NNFCC Production regions Geographical regions offer different opportunities and pose different challenges e.g. • Feedstock sustainability and availability? • Access to skills and wider business support? • Access to downstream markets? The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
  • 19. NNFCC Bio Polymer Scenarios - land requirements (2030) 50 % of available land 40 30 Chemical driven 20 Biofuel stalled 10 Biofuel driven 0 Bioeconomy Plastic demand – 428 million tonnes Land availability – 250-800 million ha (Source FAO) The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
  • 20. NNFCC Maximising resource use raw material Material Cycle Energy Cycle The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials
  • 21. NNFCC The NNFCC provides high quality, industry leading consultancy for more information contact us Email - enquiries@nnfcc.co.uk Twitter - @NNFCC +44 (0) 1904 435182 • Future Market Analysis • Technology evaluation & associated • Feedstock Logistics Planning due diligence • Sustainability Strategy • Project feasibility assessment Development • Policy and regulatory support The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials