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Agricultural Productivity in Ethiopia - Challenges for Future Growth
- 1. Fantu Nisrane Bachewe and Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse Ethiopia Strategy Support Program, ESSP-II International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) Workshop on Increasing Agricultural Productivity and Enhancing Food Security in Africa November 1-3, 2011 Addis Ababa Agricultural Productivity in Ethiopia - Challenges for Future Growth ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE
- 5. Data and Method - TFP and Efficiency Change in TFP Change in Output less Change in Input Use Change in Technical Efficiency Change in Allocative Efficiency Technological Progress Change in Other Factors (Scale Effects, Price Effects)
- 6. Recent Trends in Output and Yield: CSA data Trend in total agricultural output, area, and yield, 2004/5-2008/9 Levels Growth rates (%) Variable Crop 2004/5 2008/9 2004/05-2005/06 2007/08-2008/09 Average Output All crops 14,217 20,245 9.7 2.6 9.3 Grains 11,907 17,117 12.4 6.7 9.5 Area All crops 10,108 12,136 3.9 1.7 4.7 Grains 9,811 11,211 3.7 2.3 3.4 Yield All crops 14.07 16.68 5.5 0.9 4.4 Grains 12.14 15.27 8.4 4.3 5.9 Source : Authors’ computation using CSA data (CSA (2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009)).
Editor's Notes
- As a result of expansion in area exceeding growth in output and growth in other factors, household level real value of output per hectare declined at 4.5 percent
- A growth accounting model applied on sector level CSA data implied that TFP increased annually at 3.7 percent during the 2004/5-2008/9 period, By contrast, the same approach implied an average growth of 1.1 percent when contributions of improvements in infrastructure, electrification, and gains from increasing scales of production are accounted for, SPF equivalent in variables included with the baseline growth accounting model and using zone level CSA data implied average annual growth in TFP of 4.6 percent. SPF using household level ERHS data and equivalent to the extended growth accounting model in types of variables included implied average annual decline in TFP of 2.3 percent. Quantitatively similar results were obtained using ERHS panel data formed by grouping six rounds of the ERHS data across different years This specification accounts for the largest number of factors, including social infrastructure such as health facilities, effects of climatic, and agroecologic differences, and crop cultures, and accounts for damages suffered, among others.
- Zone level CSA data implies nationwide relative level of efficiency averaged 0.72 during the 2004-2009 period and it grew at average annual rate of 1.24 percent Among Tigray, Amhara, Oromia, and SNNP regions included in the analysis efficiency levels averaged 0.92, 0.9, 0.89, and 0.5 while it grew at respective rates of 0.24, 1.4, 1.25, and 1.9. Household level ERHS data implied that among households in the sample relative level of efficiency averaged 0.52 and grew at 1.17 percent during the same period, Average levels of efficiency in Tigray, Amhara, Oromia, and SNNP regions were 0.52, 0.53, 0.49, and 0.59 while respective annual growth rates in efficiency average 4.6, 1.5, 0.9, and 0.7