This diagnostic analysis examines Senegal's agrifood system structure, growth, and future drivers of transformation. Key findings include: 1) Senegal's agrifood system has been transforming, with off-farm components growing more rapidly than primary agriculture and accounting for over half of agrifood GDP by 2019. 2) Growth has been driven by both export-oriented and domestic market-oriented value chains, with less-traded value chains making the largest contribution due to their size. 3) Moving forward, jointly promoting value chains like fish, horticulture, groundnuts, rice, and maize could effectively achieve multiple development outcomes like reducing poverty and hunger, improving diets, boost

1. Senegal’s Agrifood System
Structure and Drivers of Transformation
Xinshen Diao, Mia Ellis, Karl Pauw, Josee Randriamamonjy, and James Thurlow
International Food Policy Research Institute
This diagnostic analysis was conducted by IFPRI with financial support from USAID.
July 2023

2. Four Parts to the Diagnostics
• Current structure
What does Senegal’s food system look like today?
• Decomposing value chains
How are different products contributing to the broader agrifood system?
• Growth and market structure
How is Senegal’s agrifood system growing and transforming?
• Future drivers of inclusive agricultural transformation
Which value chains could be most effective?
2019
2009-2019
2019+

3. Summary
Senegal’s agrifood system (AFS) diagnostic results
Senegal’s AFS has been transforming
• The off-farm components of AgGDP+ have grown more rapidly than primary agriculture GDP
• More than half of AgGDP+ was off-farm in 2009, and the off-farm share of AgGDP+ further rose during 2009–2019
• The agricultural employment share fell significantly, an indication of rapid structural change in the economy and rising agricultural labor
productivity
AFS growth has been driven by value chains oriented both toward the domestic market and for export
• Less-traded value chains dominated the AFS growth with their large size
• Exportable value chains made an important contribution to AFS growth with above-average growth
Looking forward, the structure of AFS growth will be crucial in driving development outcomes…
(e.g., poverty, dietary improvement, employment creation, and growth)
…but no single value chain is the most effective at driving all these development outcomes
• Root crops and cotton are most effective at reducing poverty; horticulture and cattle & dairy are best for improving diet quality; and rice
and fish have strong employment effects and large growth multipliers
Jointly promoting fish, horticulture, groundnuts, rice, and maize would offer an effective way to achieve
multiple development outcomes

4. Framework | Agrifood Systems (AFS)
Primary agriculture
Agroprocessing
Trade and transport
Food services
Trade and transport
Input supply Demand
Consumption of own-
produced goods
Purchase of primary
agricultural goods
Purchase of processed
agrifood goods
Purchase of ready-made
foods outside of home
Imports
A
C
B
D
E
Includes agriculture, plus all upstream/downstream sectors
• Five major components (A to E)
• Same format as standard economywide datasets (e.g., national accounts)
• Allows us to measure AFS structure and performance using actual data
Agrifood System GDP (AgGDP+)
Total value added generated by all agricultural
value chains (in constant dollars)
Agrifood System Employment (AgEMP+)
Total number of workers who are primarily
employed in an agricultural value chain

5. Structure2019 | Senegal’s Agrifood System Today
GDP and employment in Senegal’s agrifood system (2019)
• Part 1 focuses on the current size and
structure of the national agrifood system
• Latest AgGDP+ and AgEMP+ estimates
• Decomposed into five AFS components
• Situates AFS within the broader economy
• Uses official data sources
• GDP from national accounts
• Employment from various sources (i.e., population
census, labor force surveys, ILO, etc.)
• Senegal estimates indicate that
• AFS makes up one-third of GDP
($7.4 billion AgGDP+) …
• … and 40% of total employment
(2.0 million AgEMP+)
• Primary agriculture (A) is still large, but off-farm
components (B–E) have been catching up
(more than half of AgGDP+, 45% of AgEMP+)
GDP
($ billions)
Employment
(millions of workers)
Total economy 20.9 100% 2.5 100%
Agrifood system 7.4 35.5% 2.0 42.9%
Primary agric. (A) 3.5 16.7% 1.0 23.0%
Off-farm AFS 3.9 18.8% 0.9 20.0%
Processing (B) 1.9 8.9% 0.2 5.1%
Trade & transport (C) 1.5 7.4% 0.6 12.3%
Food services (D) 0.2 1.2% 0.1 1.6%
Input supply (E) 0.3 1.4% 0.0 1.0%
Rest of economy 13.5 64.5% 2.6 57.1%

6. Structure2019 | Comparing to Other Countries
• Importance and structure of the AFS varies at different stages of development
Senegal is a lower-middle-income country (LMIC)
• A: Senegal’s AgGDP+ share of total GDP lies between low-income countries (LICs) and LMICs
• B: Senegal’s off-farm components are larger than the LMIC average
• C: Senegal’s agro-processing sector is larger than expected
Share of total GDP (%) Share of AFS GDP (%) Share of off-farm AFS GDP (%)
LIC = low-income countries | LMIC = lower-middle income | UMIC = upper-middle-income | HIC = high-income Source: IFPRI Agri-Food System Database
A B C
4.2
26.4
16.9
7.1
1.2
16.7
8.2
13.4
11.9
10.6
6.6
18.8
All LIC LMIC UMIC HIC Senegal
Primary agriculture Off-farm AFS
34.0
66.2
58.6
40.2
15.6
46.9
66.0
33.8
41.4
59.8
84.4
53.1
All LIC LMIC UMIC HIC Senegal
Primary agriculture Off-farm AFS
33.7 37.8 38.4
46.9
26.1
47.1
31.7
42.8 38.6 21.4
35.9
39.3
23.1
13.7
11.2
18.2 27.8
6.1
11.4 5.8 11.8 13.5 10.3 7.5
All LIC LMIC UMIC HIC Senegal
Processing Trade and transport
Food services Input supply

7. Structure2019 | Supply vs. Demand Sides of the Agrifood System
Agrifood GDP vs. consumption
Primary, processed, and other product shares (%)
• AgGDP+ defines the AFS on the supply side
• Household demand and trade (imports) capture AFS structure on the demand side
• Agrifood processing is more important on the demand side than the supply side in the AFS
AgGDP+ Household demand
Agrifood exports vs. imports
Primary and processed product shares (%)
Exports ($1.34 bil.) Imports ($1.25 bil.)
46.9%
25.0%
28.1%
$0.39 bil.
29.2%
$0.95 bil.
70.8%
Primary agriculture
Agrifood processing
$1.11 bil.
88.9%
$0.14 bil.
11.1%
24.0%
67.7%
8.3%
Primary agriculture
Agroprocessing
Other off-farm

8. Value Chains2019 | Contributions & Trade Orientation
• Part 2 decomposes the AFS across broad value
chain groupings
• Classify value chains based on trade orientation
• Exportable value chains have above-average export-
output ratios (> 10.0%)
• Importable value chains have above-average import-
demand ratios (> 9.4%)
• Less-traded value chains make up the rest
• Strong comparative advantage in exports – four
exportable value chains; relatively smaller off-farm share
(21.2%) and larger on-farm (primary) share (33.3% of
total)
• Domestic market dominates AgGDP+ (52%) – eight less-
traded value chains; relatively smaller off-farm share
(46.8%) and larger on-farm share (57.8% of total) with
cattle & dairy and fish being exceptions
Promoting some exportable value chains, cattle & dairy,
and fish (less-traded) could be effective at driving
agricultural transformation by boosting value added and
employment in off-farm AFS
Share of total GDP (%) Exports /
output
(%)
Imports /
demand
(%)
Total
AFS
Primary
agric.
Off-farm
AFS
Total 100 100 100 10.0 9.4
Exportable 26.9 33.3 21.2 33.4 2.6
Pulses 0.6 1.2 0.1 20.7
Groundnuts 15.1 17.8 12.8 33.2
Horticulture 8.2 10.1 6.5 26.4 8.2
Cotton 3.0 4.2 1.9 59.2
Importable 15.8 8.9 21.9 0.0 28.5
Rice 7.4 5.8 8.7 38.3
Other crops 8.4 3.0 13.2 0.1 18.8
Less traded 52.0 57.8 46.8 1.3 2.4
Maize 3.9 6.3 1.8 1.1
Sorghum & millet 11.1 11.2 11.0 0.8 5.5
Oher oilseeds 0.6 1.1 0.1 0.1
Roots 1.0 2.1 0.1 4.6
Cattle & dairy 13.7 11.1 16.0 0.0 1.2
Other livestock 6.6 12.8 1.2 0.4 0.2
Fish 11.2 9.9 12.3 4.2 1.7
Forestry 3.8 3.3 4.3 0.1 7.6
Breakdown of Senegal’s agrifood system (2019)

9. Growth2009-2019 | Agrifood System Performance
Senegal’s AFS has been transforming
• Agricultural share of total GDP fell during 2009-2019 (18.3% to 16.7%)
• Off-farm components accounted for more than half of AgGDP+
Agricultural employment share fell rapidly (39% to 23%)
• An indication of rapid structural change in the economy and rising agricultural labor productivity
Agricultural GDP, agrifood system GDP, and employment shares (2009–2019)
• Part 3 analyzes structural change in the AFS and the contribution of different value chains to AFS growth
18.3
38.4
52.5
38.9
16.7
35.5
53.1
23.0
Agricultural GDP share AgGDP+ share Off-farm share of AgGDP+ Agricultural employment
share
Share
(%)
2009 2019

10. Growth2009-2019 | Value Chain Performance
• AgGDP+ grew modestly during 2009–2019
(4.1% p.a.)
• Less-traded value chains dominated AFS growth
with their large size, contributing 47% of AFS
growth in 2009–2019
• Exportable value chains made an important
contribution to AFS growth with above-average
growth (4.5%), contributing 31% of AFS growth
• Value chains with above-average growth (*)
• Three exportable value chains – pulses,
groundnuts, and horticulture – of which pulses and
horticulture grew rapidly (8.5% and 5.7%
respectively)
• One importable value chain – rice – had highest
growth rate (8.5%)
• Three less-traded value chains – maize, other
oilseeds, and other livestock – all had rapid growth
• Off-farm and on-farm AFS have similar
growth rates for most fast-growing value
chains
Value chain growth in Senegal (2009-2019)
Average annual GDP growth rate (%)
Total
AFS
Primary
agric.
Off-farm
AFS
Process-
ing
Total AFS 4.1 3.9 4.2 3.9
Exportable 4.5 4.4 4.8 4.6
Pulses* 8.5 8.6 7.6
Groundnuts* 4.4 4.2 4.5 4.1
Horticulture* 5.7 6.2 5.1 4.0
Cotton 2.1 0.6 6.1 11.7
Importable 5.8 7.3 5.2 4.9
Rice* 8.5 9.4 8.0 8.5
Other crops 3.9 4.3 3.8 4.0
Less traded 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.4
Maize* 6.2 6.3 5.8 6.3
Sorghum & millet 1.3 1.1 1.5 2.0
Oher oilseeds* 6.3 6.4 5.9 4.5
Roots 3.4 3.4 3.2
Cattle & dairy 3.1 1.9 3.9 3.7
Other livestock* 5.5 5.6 4.8
Fish 3.9 3.0 4.6 3.9
Forestry 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.6

11. Future Drivers2019+ | Modeling Faster Growth
• IFPRI’s RIAPA model is used to analyze different sources of agricultural growth
• Expand production in different value chains
• Increase on-farm productivity growth rates in targeted value chains
• Achieve same overall growth in agriculture GDP (e.g., 1.0%)
• Track linkage effects within value chains and spillover effects to other value chains
• Assess outcomes
• Poverty – Poverty-growth elasticity in percentage points based on $2.15-a-day
• Hunger – Hunger-growth elasticity in percentage points based on prevalence of undernourishment
• Diet – Diet quality to growth elasticity in % derived from Reference Diet Deprivation index (REDD)
• Jobs – Employment multiplier in thousand employed persons associated with US$1 million growth in targeted value chain
• GDP – GDP growth multiplier in US$ millions associated with US$1 million growth in targeted value chain
• Average across outcomes
• The value of outcome indicators (elasticity or multiplier) is expected to differ across value chain growth; not all value chains are
equally effective at achieving all outcomes
• Normalizing the individual outcome scores
• The values of each outcome indicator are scaled so that the most effective value chain is given a score of one and the leasteffective is given a
score of zero. A value chain with adverse impact is also given a score of zero.
• An average score with equal weights is used to measure the total impacts across all value chains

12. Future Drivers2019+ | Prioritizing Agricultural Growth
Poverty
(change in %-point)
Hunger
(change in %-point)
Jobs
(change in 1,000)
Diet quality
(change in %)
Average across outcomes
(averaged normalized scores, reordered)
GDP
(change in mil. $)
1.02
0.83
1.28
0.99
0.98
1.02
0.77
0.93
0.90
2.00
1.65
-0.34
1.18
0.54
0.26
0.26
0.52
0.17
-0.06
0.23
1.84
2.03
0.01
0.01
0.05
-0.02
0.75
0.15
0.07
0.16
0.05
0.12
-0.05
Root crops
Cotton
Maize
Sorghum
Horticulture
Groundnuts
Pulses
Cattle & dairy
Other livestock
Fish
Rice
-0.06
-0.04
-0.17
-0.29
-0.05
-0.06
-0.06
-0.04
0.00
0.01
-0.25
0.53
0.50
0.43
0.43
0.41
0.37
0.32
0.26
0.24
0.20
0.19
Fish
Horticulture
Rice
Maize
Cotton
Groundnuts
Root crops
Sorghum
Pulses
Cattle & dairy
Other livestock
Total
Fish
Horticulture
Rice
Maize
Cotton
Groundnuts
Root crops
Sorghum
Pulses
Cattle & dairy
Other livestock
Poverty Growth Jobs Diets
Individual outcomes
(per unit change in agriculture GDP, ordered by poverty outcome)
-0.19
-0.16
-0.13
-0.12
-0.11
-0.09
-0.06
-0.05
0.00
0.08
0.13
Root crops
Cotton
Maize
Sorghum
Horticulture
Groundnuts
Pulses
Cattle & dairy
Other livestock
Fish
Rice

13. Future Drivers2019+ | Key Messages from the Model
AFS growth is pro-poor
• Growth led by many value chains reduces poverty, but root crops and cotton are most effective
AFS growth is effective in improving food security (hunger) and diet quality
• Most value chains reduce hunger; the three cereal value chains – sorghum, maize, and rice – are most effective
• Most value chains improve diet quality; horticulture and cattle & dairy are most effective
Agricultural growth creates jobs but not necessarily on-farm
• Most value chains are associated with an increase in total employment, but AFS jobs are mainly created off-farm
• Rice and fish are the most effective value chains in creating jobs in the overall economy
Agricultural growth has strong growth multiplier effects that generate income beyond agriculture
• Fish, rice, and maize value chains have stronger multiplier effects for both AFS income and total GDP growth
In conclusion, promoting multiple value chains can achieve broad-based impact
• No single value chain group is the most effective in achieving all the outcomes we consider
• Fish, horticulture, and rice rank highly in the combined outcome scores, while maize and groundnuts have more balanced impacts on
poverty, diet, jobs, and growth
• Promoting these value chains jointly would offer an effective way to achieve broad-based outcomes

14. Note: Value Chain Groups and Agricultural Sectors in Individual VC Groups
Value chain group and their share
of AgGDP+
Individual products and their share of group’s agriculture GDP
Maize (3.9%) Maize 100%
Sorghum & millet (11.1%) Sorghum & millet 100%
Rice (7.4%) Rice 100%
Pulses (0.6%) Pulses 100%
Groundnuts (15.1%) Groundnuts 100%
Other oilseeds (0.6%) Other oilseeds 100%
Roots (1.0%) Cassava 51.1% | Irish potatoes 32.4% | Sweet potatoes 16.5%
Cotton (3.0%) Cotton 100%
Horticulture (8.2%)
Leafy vegetables 11.7% | Other vegetables 34.0% | Nuts 8.1% | | Bananas 4.2% | Other
fruits 41.0%
Other crops (8.4%) Other cereals 13.9% | Sugar 49.4% | Tobacco 21.3% | Other crops 15.4%
Cattle & dairy (13.7%) Cattle meat 52.6% | Raw milk 47.4%
Other livestock (6.6%) Poultry meat 46.1% | Eggs 11.2% | Small ruminants 37.4%| Other livestock 5.3%
Fish (11.2%) Aquaculture 0.4% | Capture fish 99.6%
Forestry (3.8%) Forestry 100%