We expect transactions to fall and prices to ease in 2009, in line with the projected 3%
real GDP contraction. Transactions could fall 20-30% or as much as 35-50% in the
worst-case scenario, matching the performance during the 1997/8 Asian financial
crisis. However, most major developers have pushed out innovative financing
schemes to lure buyers. Response has been mixed, with good response garnered by
the likes of SP Setia (RM500m sales) and Mah Sing (RM170m sales) but lacklustre
sales for many other developers
1. SECTOR UPDATE
6 May 2009
MALAYSIA
CIMB Research Report
Maintained
TRADING BUY
Property
Property Market Report 2008: Surprisingly resilient
Terence Wong CFA +60(3) 20849689 - terence.wong@cimb.com
• Volumes transacted were strong. Much to our surprise, the recently released
Property Market Report 2008 revealed a very healthy clip for transacted volumes
and values, not just for residential properties, but for all sub-sectors. Transaction
value notched a brisk rate of 14.5% while the number of transactions went up 10%.
We had expected transaction values and volumes to be flat at best due to political
uncertainty after the 8 Mar general elections and the global credit crunch which
peaked in Oct. But signs of rapid cooling were evident in 4Q08 as volume and value
fell 18-20%. This should spill over into 2009.
• House prices continue to head higher. Less surprising was the decent rise in
house prices for most of the country. Overall house prices appreciated 4.8% in
2008, matching the gain in 2007. Of the big-3 markets, Penang enjoyed the
steepest appreciation of 10.4% while the Klang Valley’s gain of 4.5% actually fell
slightly behind the 5.4% inflation rate. Johor was an unexpected major letdown, with
prices dipping 0.1% in 2008, which means that house prices in the state are
relatively unchanged from 10 years ago. For the other states, all except Terengganu
registered price appreciation in 2008.
• Commercial occupancies softened. Overall occupancy rates for office and retail
space in the Klang Valley softened last year. Office space occupancy in Kuala
Lumpur and Selangor slipped marginally as supply growth slightly outpaced
demand growth. Although no new supply was added, retail space occupancy in
Kuala Lumpur slid 0.9% pts to 84% because of a 1% slippage in demand.
Occupancy in Selangor improved 0.5% pts to 90.2% as supply actually fell by 1%,
more than offsetting the 0.5% decline in demand. The average occupancy rate for
hotels in KL fell from 71.4% to 68.8% while in Selangor, it plunged from 67% to
59.2%.
• Outlook remains challenging. We expect transactions to fall and prices to ease in
2009, in line with the 3% real GDP contraction. Transactions could slump 35-50% in
the worst-case scenario, matching the performance during the 1997/8 Asian
financial crisis, while high-end condo prices could fall 30-40% from their peaks.
There will also be downward pressure on occupancy and rental/room rates for
office, retail and hotels as new supply will act as an overhang unless demand picks
up. However, this is unlikely to happen as sentiment remains weak and developers
have had to resort to attractive financing schemes to lure buyers.
• Sector remains a TRADING BUY. Although the outlook for the sector remains
difficult, the sector held up better than expected in 2008. This increases the odds of
a manageable consolidation for the industry in 2009, rather than a steep decline.
We maintain our TRADING BUY stance on the property sector for its leveraged play
on the broader market and bombed-out valuations. SP Setia remains our preferred
play on the sector for its excellent management, size and liquidity. Sector re-rating
catalysts include 1) a broad market rebound in 2H and 2) attractive valuations.
Figure 1: Sector comparisons
Core ROE
Target 3-yr EPS P/BV Div
P/E (x) (x) yield (%)
Bloomberg Price price Mkt cap CAGR (%)
(Local) (Local) (US$ m) (%)
ticker Recom. CY2009 CY2010 CY2009 CY2009 CY2009
Hunza Prop HPB MK TB 1.30 1.76 55 6.3 5.6 N/A 0.6 9.3 5.8
3.75
KLCC Property KLCC MK N 3.18 834 12.5 11.5 51.5 0.7 5.3 4.4
Mah Sing MSGB MK N 1.75 1.87 305 11.1 10.0 9.4 1.5 13.1 4.9
SP Setia SPSB MK TB 3.54 4.13 1,011 19.2 18.0 7.7 1.7 10.3 4.8
UM Land UML MK TB 1.05 1.98 71 28.5 8.6 N/A 0.3 1.1 2.4
Simple average 15.5 10.7 22.9 1.0 7.8 4.5
O = Outperform, N = Neutral, U = Underperform, TB = Trading Buy and TS = Trading Sell
Source: Company, CIMB Research
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this publication.
2. Volumes transacted strong
Much to our surprise, the recently released Property Market Report (PMR) 2008
revealed a very healthy clip for transacted volumes and values. This was the case, not
just for residential properties, but for all sub-sectors. Transaction value notched a brisk
rate of 14.5% while the number of transactions increased by 10%. In terms of value,
development land and others recorded the strongest increase of 36%, with agriculture
land coming in second at 23%. This could mean that developers were actively buying
land bank for new projects. Residential properties again made up the bulk of
transactions at 47% and recorded a very respectable 13% increase in value.
Figure 2: Property transactions (RM m)
100,000 Residential Commercial
Industrial Agriculture
90,000
Devmt & others
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: PMR, CIMB Research
Figure 3: 2008 property transaction values by segment
Devmt & others
16%
Agriculture Residential
10% 46%
Industrial
9%
Commercial
19%
Source: PMR, CIMB Research
The robust increase in transaction values and volumes came as a positive surprise to
us as we had expected it to be flat at best due to political uncertainty after the 8 Mar
general elections and the global credit crunch which peaked in Oct. An even bigger
surprise was the source of the growth in transaction values – it came not from the
Klang Valley but from the most difficult market, Johor. Transaction values in Johor
jumped 41% to nearly RM12bn, possibly due to the lure of the Iskandar development
region. Penang transactions increased 11% while deals in the Klang Valley grew the
slowest at 8%. Nonetheless, signs of rapid cooling were evident in 4Q as overall
volume and value fell 18-20%. This should spill over into 2009.
Figure 4: Transaction values by location (RM m)
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
11,015.4 16,087.9 18,184.3 17,790.8 16,444.8 19,894.3 26,667.3 27,158.0 30,353.5 41,606.2 44,997.8
Klang Valley
4,570.2 5,687.9 6,087.7 5,654.7 6,298.8 6,689.1 10,628.8 7,852.5 6,937.1 8,452.8 11,905.8
Johor
2,578.1 2,592.6 3,275.8 3,632.7 3,433.0 3,863.2 5,653.2 5,502.1 5,489.5 6,554.4 7,276.9
Penang
9,747.7 10,054.3 11,648.1 11,556.6 12,466.7 12,988.3 17,014.2 16,269.1 18,745.6 20,520.5 24,158.4
Others
Total 27,911.4 34,422.7 39,195.8 38,634.9 38,643.3 43,434.9 59,963.5 56,781.7 61,525.7 77,133.8 88,338.9
Source: CIMB estimates, PMR
[2]
3. House prices appreciated further
Less surprising was the decent rise in house prices for most of the country. Property
prices were boosted by fears of inflation after the June price hikes for petrol, electricity
and building materials. Overall house price appreciated 4.8% in 2008, matching the
gain in 2007. Of the big-3 markets, Penang enjoyed the steepest appreciation of
10.4% while Klang Valley’s gain of 4.5% actually fell slightly behind the 5.4% inflation
rate. Johor was an unexpected major letdown, with prices dipping 0.1% in 2008, which
means that house prices in the state are relatively unchanged from 10 years ago
despite the establishment of the Iskandar development corridor and the billions of
ringgit of new investments going into Johor.
Figure 5: House price indices
Malaysia house price index KL house price index
300.0
Selangor house price index Klang Valley price index
Johor price index Penang price index
250.0
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Source: PMR, CIMB Research
All the states in Malaysia save for Johor and Terengganu registered price appreciation
in 2008. Surprisingly, Kuala Lumpur and Selangor saw modest price rises of around 4-
5% while northern states such as Perlis, Perak, Penang and Kedah enjoyed the
highest gains in Peninsular Malaysia. The moderate price increase in the Klang
Valley, which was in line with the country’s average, could be due to ample supply
given that the Klang Valley is the area of focus for the most aggressive developers.
Sabah’s house prices jumped 13.7%, the highest of any state in the country. Not
surprisingly, many developers such as SP Setia and Mah Sing have either bought
land bank or have voiced their intention to venture into the state.
Figure 6: 2008 price change by state
Sabah
Perlis
Perak
Penang
Kedah
Saraw ak
Malaysia
Selangor
Malacca
K. Lumpur
Kelantan
N. Sembilan
Pahang
Johor
Terengganu
-2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0%
Source: PMR, CIMB Research
Almost across the board, house prices were lower in 4Q08 than in 3Q08. For the
country as a whole, prices edged down 1.8% qoq in 4Q. The biggest fall came from
high-rise properties, which registered a 2.9% qoq downtick. House prices fell 0.8% in
Kuala Lumpur, 3.4% in Selangor, 1.7% in Johor and 6.1% in Penang on a quarterly
basis in 4Q. The states that bucked the downtrend in 4Q were Malacca (+2.7%),
Pahang (+1.3%), Kelantan (+2.5%), Perlis (7.2%) and Sarawak (4.1%).
[3]
4. Commercial occupancies soften
Overall occupancy rates for office and retail space in the Klang Valley softened last
year. Office space occupancy in Kuala Lumpur and Selangor slipped marginally as
supply growth of 2.2m sq ft outpaced demand growth of 1m sq ft. Although new
supply growth was moderate, demand fell substantially from 5m sq ft in 2007. New
demand amounted to 1m sq ft, short of the average new take-up of around 3.7m sq ft
per annum. The weak demand could be due to the erosion of consumer confidence
after the 8 Mar general elections and the global credit crunch. Overall occupancy for
the Klang Valley slipped 0.9% pts to 84.7%.
Figure 7: Klang Valley office space
mil sq ft Occupancy
Demand Supply Occupancy
120 120%
100 100%
80 80%
60 60%
40 40%
20 20%
0 0%
81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 F
Source: PMR, CIMB Research, Rahim & Co Research, BNM, Domain Properties, CH Williams Talhar & Wong and JLW Research
In the case of retail space in KL, although there was no new supply, occupancy slid
0.9% pts to 84% because of a 1% or 0.2m sq ft slippage in demand. Occupancy in
Selangor improved 0.5% pts to 90.2% as supply contracted 1% or 21,000 sq ft, more
than offsetting the 0.5% or 9,000 sq ft decline in demand. The average occupancy
rate for hotels in Kuala Lumpur fell from 71.4% to 68.8% while in Selangor, it plunged
from 67% to 59.2%. As a result, Klang Valley occupancy fell from 71.6% to 65.7%.
Figure 8: Kuala Lumpur retail space
(mil sq f t) Occupancy
30.0 120.0%
Demand Supply Occupancy
25.0 100.0%
20.0 80.0%
15.0 60.0%
10.0 40.0%
5.0 20.0%
0.0 0.0%
F
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
Source: PMR, CIMB Research, Rahim & Co Research
Figure 9: Klang Valley hotels
Occupancy
('000 rooms) Supply Demand Occupancy
60.0 100.0%
50.0 80.0%
40.0
60.0%
30.0
40.0%
20.0
20.0%
10.0
0.0 0.0%
89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 F
Source: PMR, CIMB Research
[4]
5. Outlook remains challenging
We expect transactions to fall and prices to ease in 2009, in line with the projected 3%
real GDP contraction. Transactions could fall 20-30% or as much as 35-50% in the
worst-case scenario, matching the performance during the 1997/8 Asian financial
crisis. However, most major developers have pushed out innovative financing
schemes to lure buyers. Response has been mixed, with good response garnered by
the likes of SP Setia (RM500m sales) and Mah Sing (RM170m sales) but lacklustre
sales for many other developers.
Figure 10: Change in property transaction value vs. real GDP growth
100.0% Residential Total Real GDP grow th
80.0%
60.0%
40.0%
20.0%
0.0%
-20.0%
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
-40.0%
-60.0%
Source: Property Market Report, MOF, CIMB Research
We also expect property prices to soften in 2009. Historically, the prices of residential
properties in Malaysia and the Klang Valley moved in tandem with the economy but
with a slight lag. During the 1997/8 Asian crisis, property prices pulled back more than
the economy. However, we believe the fall in residential property prices, particularly
for landed properties, will be less than the drop in the overall economy as property
prices have lagged behind economic growth since 2001. The bubble in 2007 extended
only to condos in specific locations such as KLCC and Mont’ Kiara. Prices in these
two locations could fall 30-40% from their peak.
Figure 11: Residential prices vs. real GDP growth
30.0% Malaysia house price index
25.0% Klang Valley price index
20.0% Real GDP grow th
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0%
-20.0%
Source: Property Market Report, MOF, CIMB Research
There will also be downward pressure on occupancy and rental/room rates for office,
retail and hotels as new supply will act as an overhang unless demand picks up.
However, this is unlikely to happen as sentiment remains weak and even developers
have had to resort to attractive financing schemes to lure buyers. Future supply
remains significant as office space under construction and planning amounts to 29%
of existing supply in the Klang Valley. For retail space, the potential increase is 22%
while for hotels, it amounts to a massive 68%. However, in view of dampened outlook,
supply under planning may not materialise. Supply under construction for office space
in the Klang Valley amounts to a lower 12%, while for retail and hotels, it is 14% and
21%, respectively.
[5]
6. Figure 12. Existing and future supply of properties
Kuala Lumpur Selangor
Klang Valley Johor Penang Others Malaysia
Residential (units)
Existing stock 1,597,518 646,869 325,330 1,623,433 4,193,150
389,122 1,208,396
Under construction 192,789 61,644 48,701 248,129 551,263
48,074 144,715
Future supply 367,344 208,913 86,341 562,536 1,225,134
91,231 276,113
Shop house (units)
Existing stock 88,639 64,305 27,049 163,027 343,020
21,800 66,839
Under construction 13,918 7,887 3,387 20,838 46,030
2,144 11,774
Future supply 22,263 22,448 5,269 52,676 102,656
3,044 19,219
Office space (mil sq ft)
Existing stock 104.0 9.4 11.3 40.0 164.6
67.0 37.0
Under construction 13.0 2.6 0.9 3.6 20.1
10.3 2.7
Future supply 30.3 8.9 1.4 5.2 45.8
23.0 7.2
Retail space (mil sq ft)
Existing stock 45.1 12.4 12.7 28.4 98.6
22.9 22.2
Under construction 6.2 3.6 2.5 5.2 17.5
5.0 1.2
Future supply 10.1 12.7 3.4 11.8 38.0
10.1 3.2
Industrial (units)
Existing stock 38,482 13,362 7,557 30,946 90,347
5,115 33,367
Under construction 2,633 496 263 3,770 7,162
31 2,602
Future supply 4,663 2,688 771 22,528 30,650
201 4,462
Hotel (rooms)
Existing stock 43,667 14,061 12,308 86,311 156,347
30,152 13,515
Under construction 9,325 3,206 393 5,832 18,756
5,520 3,805
Future supply 29,661 3,753 1,618 18,195 53,227
25,856 3,805
Note: Future supply = under construction + planned supply
Source: PMR, CIMB estimates
As mentioned earlier, occupancy rates in the Klang Valley fell the sharpest for hotels,
The trend is likely to continue in the near future as new supply under construction is
significant while demand will be constrained by the high base effect due to the 2007/8
Visit Malaysia Year promotion and concerns over the swine flu outbreak. Occupancy
rates for office space in the Klang Valley will also come under more pressure than
retail as demand for retail space should be buoyed by relatively resilient consumer
demand. Office space demand appears more a function of the economic environment
as businesses are tightening budgets and making do with their existing space.
Figure 13. Occupancy rates in KL/Klang Valley
110.0% Office Retail Hotel
100.0%
90.0%
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Source: PMR, CIMB estimates
Valuation and recommendation
The key points we picked up from the 2008 Property Market Report are 1) property
transactions across all sub-sectors held up much stronger than expected, 2)
residential property prices continued their ascent and also performed better than
expectations, and 3) occupancy rates for commercial properties including office
space, retail space and hotel in the Klang Valley fared slightly worse than expected.
Overall, the performance in 2008 was more resilient than expected, particularly for
property developers. This increases the odds that 2009 may turn out to be a year of
manageable consolidation for the sector rather than a steep decline. This would be
[6]
7. positive for the sector.
However, the PMR reinforces our belief that the property sector faces a difficult year.
Transactions and prices should come under considerable pressure as 2008 can be
considered a high-base year. Occupancy rates could also deteriorate as demand
should remain lacklustre while new supply continues to come onstream. This may
make investing in property investment companies such as REITs, KLCC Property,
IGB Corp (IGB MK, Not Rated) and Sunway City (SCITY MK, Not Rated) a less
rewarding proposition than initially expected.
Despite the difficult fundamental outlook for the property sector, we continue to rate
the sector a TRADING BUY. Property stocks have high betas and have been heavily
sold down to steep discounts to RNAV. We recommend investing in selected property
stocks as they provide investors a leveraged exposure to the stockmarket. We are
more bullish about the stockmarket’s outlook for 2009 and expect the KLCI to end the
year at 1,060 points. Re-rating catalysts for the property sector include 1) a broad
market rebound in 2H09 which should boost the prices of the most depressed shares,
2) attractive valuations for most property stocks, and 3) lower GDP contraction in 2Q
and 3Q after a steep plunge in 1Q.
Figure 14: Discount to RNAV and NTA
Share price RNAV/shr (Discount)/ NTA/shr (Discount)/
(RM) (RM) Premium (RM) Premium
Hunza Prop 1.30 3.52 -63.1% 2.08 -37.5%
KLCC Prop 3.20 5.00 -36.0% 3.97 -19.4%
Mah Sing 1.75 1.66 5.4% 1.10 59.1%
SP Setia 3.42 4.59 -25.5% 1.97 73.6%
UM Land 1.05 3.98 -73.6% 3.38 -68.9%
Average -38.6% 1.4%
Source: CIMB estimates, companies
SP Setia remains our top property pick for its size, liquidity and management. We
believe there is a possibility of M&A activity as PNB owns 32.9% of the group and is
looking to restructure its property portfolio after the earlier privatisations of Island &
Peninsular, Pelangi and Petaling Garden. SP Setia has the management expertise,
capacity and acumen to take on more land bank and will be able to help PNB unlock
the hidden value of its assets more quickly. We also like fallen angels such as E&O
(EAST MK; NR), YNH Property (YNHB MK; NR) and Sunrise (SUN MK; NR) as their
share prices have fallen sharply despite their decent balance sheets and great land
bank.
Figure 15: Recommendation, target price and basis
Recommendation Target price Target basis
Hunza Prop Trading Buy 1.76 50% disc to RNAV
KLCC Prop Neutral 3.75 25% disc to RNAV
Mah Sing Neutral 1.87 20% disc to mkt P/E
SP Setia Trading Buy 4.13 10% disc to RNAV
UM Land Trading Buy 1.98 50% disc to RNAV
Sector Trading Buy 10-50% disc to RNAV
Source: CIMB estimates, companies
[7]
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The term “CIMB” shall denote where applicable the relevant entity distributing the report in that particular jurisdiction where mentioned specifically below shall be a CIMB
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(i) As of 6 May 2009, CIMB has a proprietary position in the following securities in this report:
(a) SP Setia.
(ii) As of 6 May 2009, the analyst, Terence Wong who prepared this report, has / have an interest in the securities in the following company or companies covered or
recommended in this report:
(a) -.
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9. New Zealand: In New Zealand, this report is for distribution only to persons whose principal business is the investment of money or who, in the course of, and for the
purposes of their business, habitually invest money pursuant to Section 3(2)(a)(ii) of the Securities Act 1978.
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RECOMMENDATION FRAMEWORK #1*
STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
OUTPERFORM: The stock's total return is expected to exceed a relevant OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is
benchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 12 months. expected to outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12
months.
NEUTRAL: The stock's total return is expected to be within +/-5% of a relevant NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is
benchmark's total return. expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next
12 months.
UNDERPERFORM: The stock's total return is expected to be below a relevant UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe,
benchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 12 months. is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12
months.
TRADING BUY: The stock's total return is expected to exceed a relevant TRADING BUY: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is
benchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 3 months. expected to outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 3
months.
TRADING SELL: The stock's total return is expected to be below a relevant TRADING SELL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe,
benchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 3 months. is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 3
months.
* This framework only applies to stocks listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange, Bursa Malaysia, Stock Exchange of Thailand and Jakarta Stock Exchange. Occasionally, it is permitted for the total expected returns to be
temporarily outside the prescribed ranges due to extreme market volatility or other justifiable company or industry-specific reasons.
CIMB-GK Research Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No. 198701620M)
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10. RECOMMENDATION FRAMEWORK #2 **
STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
OUTPERFORM: Expected positive total returns of 15% or more over the next OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe,
12 months. has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +15% or
better over the next 12 months.
NEUTRAL: Expected total returns of between -15% and +15% over the next NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has
12 months. either (i) an equal number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of
+15% (or better) or -15% (or worse), or (ii) stocks that are predominantly
expected to have total returns that will range from +15% to -15%; both over the
next 12 months.
UNDERPERFORM: Expected negative total returns of 15% or more over the UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe,
next 12 months. has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of -15% or
worse over the next 12 months.
TRADING BUY: Expected positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 3 TRADING BUY: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe,
months. has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +15% or
better over the next 3 months.
TRADING SELL: Expected negative total returns of 15% or more over the next TRADING SELL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe,
3 months. has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of -15% or
worse over the next 3 months.
** This framework only applies to stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and China listings on the Singapore Stock Exchange. Occasionally, it is permitted for the total expected returns to be temporarily outside the
prescribed ranges due to extreme market volatility or other justifiable company or industry-specific reasons.
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