A review of several behavioral economics / behavioral finance concepts and examples of how to apply the dual-self economic model to advising clients in a financial planning context.
Individual financial advisory with respect to individual clients has occupied center stage especially due to the attendant effects of the global COVID-19 pandemic. Clients as well as advisors have had to react to these changes.
This is the first part of a two part presentation that will assist advisors/ individual wealth managers anticipate and react/address client management in a customised manner.
Individual financial advisory with respect to individual clients has occupied center stage especially due to the attendant effects of the global COVID-19 pandemic. Clients as well as advisors have had to react to these changes.
This is the first part of a two part presentation that will assist advisors/ individual wealth managers anticipate and react/address client management in a customised manner.
As an Investment Advisor, you will have to play an important role in enabling your clients to reach their financial goals without the emotions of fear or greed playing havoc. It is essential to understand Behavioural Finance, especially Heuristics and Biases that creep into financial decision making.
Behavioral finance and investment decisionaashima1806
Behavioral Finance is all related to the behavior of the investor at the time of investing in different market conditions.. same is exhibited in our presentation by compiling different questions related to investment for different investors on the basis of different age groups...
This presentation slide is about the concept of Mental Accounting Bias. Biases are one of the important concept in Behavioral Finance and influence the decision making ability of an individual.
Mindfulness: An Antidote To Autopilot At WorkShalini Bahl
Mindfulness is becoming popular in the context of stress management and developing focus and inner calm. The greatest potential for transformation that mindfulness offers lies in its ability to wake us up from living on autopilot. This webinar offered by the Smith College Executive Education for Women focuses on the role mindfulness can play in bringing more awareness, intentionality, and control so we can make more skillful decisions.
You can view a recording of the webinar here: https://smith.adobeconnect.com/p4g9ns9c17o/?launcher=false&fcsContent=true&pbMode=normal
As an Investment Advisor, you will have to play an important role in enabling your clients to reach their financial goals without the emotions of fear or greed playing havoc. It is essential to understand Behavioural Finance, especially Heuristics and Biases that creep into financial decision making.
Behavioral finance and investment decisionaashima1806
Behavioral Finance is all related to the behavior of the investor at the time of investing in different market conditions.. same is exhibited in our presentation by compiling different questions related to investment for different investors on the basis of different age groups...
This presentation slide is about the concept of Mental Accounting Bias. Biases are one of the important concept in Behavioral Finance and influence the decision making ability of an individual.
Mindfulness: An Antidote To Autopilot At WorkShalini Bahl
Mindfulness is becoming popular in the context of stress management and developing focus and inner calm. The greatest potential for transformation that mindfulness offers lies in its ability to wake us up from living on autopilot. This webinar offered by the Smith College Executive Education for Women focuses on the role mindfulness can play in bringing more awareness, intentionality, and control so we can make more skillful decisions.
You can view a recording of the webinar here: https://smith.adobeconnect.com/p4g9ns9c17o/?launcher=false&fcsContent=true&pbMode=normal
Presented at the International Conference on Identity Studies in Vienna, Austria.
http://socialsciencesandhumanities.com/upcoming-conferences-call-for-papers/international-conference-on-identity-studies/index.html
Videos:
Mindfulness - How To Actually Practice Mindfulness & Conquer Your Emotions :https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=01Pfs3VuizM
Daniel Goleman on Focus: The Secret to High Performance and Fulfilment: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HTfYv3IEOqM&t=1472s
Articles:
Dr. Richard Reoch : http://richardreoch.info/mindful-leadership-resources/
Self-evaluate yourself:
Self-assessment 1: https://www.onlineassessmenttool.com/how-is-your-focus/assessment-56436
Self-assessment 2: https://www.onlineassessmenttool.com/how-do-you-help-yourself-focusing/assessment-56437
Self-assessment 3 (NewYorkTimes): http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/06/07/technology/20100607-task-switching-demo.html
This session will offer a new and different approach to teaching the traditional type of American culture seminar class. Attendees will be able to take away simple and creative ways to implement this approach in their own programs.
There is a trend in education to make use of crowdfunding. Different platforms will be compared to highlight specific advantages and disadvantages. The presenter successfully ran a Kickstarter campaign in 2015 to fund a music project. She can give useful tips on aspects that make a crowdfunded project successful. A discussion will follow the presentation.
The Economics of Patience: The endogenous determination of time preferenceRussell James
This presentation reviews an economic model by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary Becker and Casey Mulligan incorporating the idea of imagination in time preference.
The Society for Judgment and Decisionmaking held their 32nd conference in Seattle Nov 4-7.
These slides point to some of my favorite findings presented there.
Das ist die Vorlage für die Arbeit zum Thema “Neuroeconomics”, die von unseren Autoren geschrieben wurde!
Hinweis: Die obenerwähnte Arbeite wurde extra für unsere Kunden erstellt. Wir haben sie um die Erlaubnis gebeten, diese Arbeit zu posten
The Role of Agent-Based Modelling in Extending the Concept of Bounded Rationa...Edmund Chattoe-Brown
A seminar given to the Judgement and Decision Making Research Group in the Department of Neuroscience, Psychology and Behaviour, University of Leicester kindly asked me to give a seminar on 25 January 2023 on "The Role of Agent-Based Modelling in Extending the Concept of Bounded Rationality". It discusses the challenges to different research methods of dealing with subjective accounts and models a situation where people can be rational but communicate and have incomplete information about both the number of choices and their payoff. The model is based on this paper: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11299-009-0060-7 One interesting result is that, without coercion or mass media, minority groups may be disadvantaged in their decision making by hegemonic discourse.
Das ist die Vorlage für die Arbeit zum Thema “Neuroeconomics”, die von unseren Autoren geschrieben wurde!
Hinweis: Die obenerwähnte Arbeite wurde extra für unsere Kunden erstellt. Wir haben sie um die Erlaubnis gebeten, diese Arbeit zu posten
Top 10 charitable planning strategies for financial advisors 2020Russell James
This presentation gives the top approaches to helping your clients and growing your practice using charitable planning with special tips related to the new tax law. Participants will learn how to provide tremendous benefit to clients, while improving their own assets under management, with charitable planning. Topics include gifts from retirement plans, gifts of appreciated assets, the use of private foundations, and life insurance.
The Statistics & Psychology of Baby Boomer Lifetime & Legacy GivingRussell James
In this irreverent and entertaining slide deck, Dr. James reviews nationally representative data on Baby Boomers and their lifetime and legacy donations. Beyond simple statistics, this session demonstrates how these demographic realities should change how and when you communicate fundraising information to Boomers. If you want a slide deck based on hard data that goes beyond "just so" stories with obligatory pictures of Woodstock, Vietnam, and Neil Armstrong - then this is the place for you!
Using "natural philanthropy" in fundraisingRussell James
Charitable giving is not a modern invention of the industrialized world. It is a natural behavior as old as humankind. In this presentation, Professor James reviews scientific research from a range of disciplines to uncover the natural origins of philanthropy and translates these scientific concepts into effective fundraising strategies. Be prepared to see how theory and science can produce powerful, practical, real-world fundraising success.
Top 10 legacy fundraising strategies from scientific research: National data ...Russell James
After fifteen years in academic research (plus more than a decade in frontline planned and major gifts fundraising), Professor James brings together scientific results from economics, neuroscience, psychology, demographics, and other disciplines to present the ten most important and effective strategies for increasing fundraising success in planned gifts. Beyond just “war stories,” this presentation gives you a deep understanding of what works – and why – in effective legacy fundraising.
Natural philanthropy: How the natural origins of donor motivations drive powe...Russell James
Charitable giving is not a modern invention of the industrialized world. It is a natural behavior as old as humankind. In this presentation, Professor James reviews scientific research from a range of disciplines to uncover the natural origins of philanthropy and translates these scientific concepts into effective fundraising strategies. Be prepared to see how theory and science can produce powerful, practical, real-world fundraising success.
Top 10 charitable planning strategies for financial advisors under the new ta...Russell James
This presentation gives the top approaches to helping your clients and growing your practice using charitable planning with special tips related to the new tax law. Participants will learn how to provide tremendous benefit to clients, while improving their own assets under management, with charitable planning. Topics include gifts from retirement plans, gifts of appreciated assets, the use of private foundations, and life insurance.
Why cash is not king in fundraising: Results from 1 million nonprofit tax ret...Russell James
This research tracks the fundraising growth of hundreds of thousands of nonprofit organizations from 2010 through 2016 to identify what predicts current and long-term fundraising growth. A key predictor is whether the nonprofit effectively pursues gifts of assets (e.g., stocks, bonds, real estate) rather than gifts of cash. This presentation reviews these comprehensive results, investigates the psychological and practical aspects of why gifts of assets are so critical for high-growth fundraising, and discusses strategies for effectively pursuing these important gifts.
The hidden code behind death-related financial decisions Russell James
Understanding the hidden code behind client decisions
in life insurance, annuities, estate planning, planned giving, end-of-life medical planning, and other death-related topics
what is the future of Pi Network currency.DOT TECH
The future of the Pi cryptocurrency is uncertain, and its success will depend on several factors. Pi is a relatively new cryptocurrency that aims to be user-friendly and accessible to a wide audience. Here are a few key considerations for its future:
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram if u want to sell PI COINS.
1. Mainnet Launch: As of my last knowledge update in January 2022, Pi was still in the testnet phase. Its success will depend on a successful transition to a mainnet, where actual transactions can take place.
2. User Adoption: Pi's success will be closely tied to user adoption. The more users who join the network and actively participate, the stronger the ecosystem can become.
3. Utility and Use Cases: For a cryptocurrency to thrive, it must offer utility and practical use cases. The Pi team has talked about various applications, including peer-to-peer transactions, smart contracts, and more. The development and implementation of these features will be essential.
4. Regulatory Environment: The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies is evolving globally. How Pi navigates and complies with regulations in various jurisdictions will significantly impact its future.
5. Technology Development: The Pi network must continue to develop and improve its technology, security, and scalability to compete with established cryptocurrencies.
6. Community Engagement: The Pi community plays a critical role in its future. Engaged users can help build trust and grow the network.
7. Monetization and Sustainability: The Pi team's monetization strategy, such as fees, partnerships, or other revenue sources, will affect its long-term sustainability.
It's essential to approach Pi or any new cryptocurrency with caution and conduct due diligence. Cryptocurrency investments involve risks, and potential rewards can be uncertain. The success and future of Pi will depend on the collective efforts of its team, community, and the broader cryptocurrency market dynamics. It's advisable to stay updated on Pi's development and follow any updates from the official Pi Network website or announcements from the team.
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
Yes of course, you can easily start mining pi network coin today and sell to legit pi vendors in the United States.
Here the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
#pi network #pi coins #legit #passive income
#US
Abhay Bhutada Leads Poonawalla Fincorp To Record Low NPA And Unprecedented Gr...Vighnesh Shashtri
Under the leadership of Abhay Bhutada, Poonawalla Fincorp has achieved record-low Non-Performing Assets (NPA) and witnessed unprecedented growth. Bhutada's strategic vision and effective management have significantly enhanced the company's financial health, showcasing a robust performance in the financial sector. This achievement underscores the company's resilience and ability to thrive in a competitive market, setting a new benchmark for operational excellence in the industry.
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024 - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...Quotidiano Piemontese
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024
Una ricerca de il Club degli Investitori, in collaborazione con ToTeM Torino Tech Map e con il supporto della ESCP Business School e di Growth Capital
Seminar: Gender Board Diversity through Ownership NetworksGRAPE
Seminar on gender diversity spillovers through ownership networks at FAME|GRAPE. Presenting novel research. Studies in economics and management using econometrics methods.
how to sell pi coins effectively (from 50 - 100k pi)DOT TECH
Anywhere in the world, including Africa, America, and Europe, you can sell Pi Network Coins online and receive cash through online payment options.
Pi has not yet been launched on any exchange because we are currently using the confined Mainnet. The planned launch date for Pi is June 28, 2026.
Reselling to investors who want to hold until the mainnet launch in 2026 is currently the sole way to sell.
Consequently, right now. All you need to do is select the right pi network provider.
Who is a pi merchant?
An individual who buys coins from miners on the pi network and resells them to investors hoping to hang onto them until the mainnet is launched is known as a pi merchant.
debuts.
I'll provide you the Telegram username
@Pi_vendor_247
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
Key Features of USDA Loans:
Zero Down Payment: USDA loans require no down payment, making homeownership more accessible.
Competitive Interest Rates: These loans often come with lower interest rates compared to conventional loans.
Flexible Credit Requirements: USDA loans have more lenient credit score requirements, helping those with less-than-perfect credit.
Guaranteed Loan Program: The USDA guarantees a portion of the loan, reducing risk for lenders and expanding borrowing options.
Eligibility Criteria:
Location: The property must be located in a USDA-designated rural or suburban area. Many areas in California qualify.
Income Limits: Applicants must meet income guidelines, which vary by region and household size.
Primary Residence: The home must be used as the borrower's primary residence.
Application Process:
Find a USDA-Approved Lender: Not all lenders offer USDA loans, so it's essential to choose one approved by the USDA.
Pre-Qualification: Determine your eligibility and the amount you can borrow.
Property Search: Look for properties in eligible rural or suburban areas.
Loan Application: Submit your application, including financial and personal information.
Processing and Approval: The lender and USDA will review your application. If approved, you can proceed to closing.
USDA loans are an excellent option for those looking to buy a home in California's rural and suburban areas. With no down payment and flexible requirements, these loans make homeownership more attainable for many families. Explore your eligibility today and take the first step toward owning your dream home.
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdf
Behavioral Finance for Financial Planners
1. This is your brain on finances: Advising imperfect humans Associate Professor Russell James, J.D., Ph.D., CFP® Director of Online Graduate Studies in Charitable Financial Planning Texas Tech University
2. A current example of a brain science “work in progress” A neuro-economic model of decision making Strategies for influencing financial decision making
3. Brain science methods Behavioral Cognitive abilities, Mathematic abilities, Choices Neurological Lesion/stroke studies Other signal receiving methods Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) Positron Emission Tomography (PET)* Single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT)* Electroencephalography (EEG)** Magnetoencephalography (MEG)** *Requires radioactive injections **Great at WHEN activation, weak at WHERE activation
5. In progress study… A sharing game: Player 1 receives $20. Any amount he gives to Player 2 is tripled. Player 2 may return any amount to player 1. The game ends. Players are anonymous and unseen. There is no economic reason for Player 2 to share any money. Measures generosity-attachment-reciprocity.
6. A prior study found that touch (therapeutic massage) combined with receiving a larger share from Player 1 caused Player 2 to be more generous than with either element alone (Morhenn, et al 2008). Significantly, the generosity was driven by changes in oxytocin, a family/in-group bonding hormone.
7. In our fMRI study for touch, a lab assistant takes the subject’s pulse during some blocks of the trials Attempting a practical analogy to a business practice such as a handshake and a small gift.
8. We care about activation in the amygdala, which has been shown to respond to faces of in-group members more than out-group members following a team building exercise
9. Adding touch to a high sharing scenario may increase activation
10. Adding touch to an “unfair” low-sharing scenario may have a negative effect on activation
11. Moving from low sharing to high sharing in a touch scenario may increase activation
12. A framework for thinking about the neurological processes of human decision-making
13. The “dual-self” model as an alternative to simple “utility-maximizing” rational decision-making
14.
15. Each cares only about immediate experience“Our theory proposes that many sorts of decision problems should be viewed as a game between a sequence of short-run impulsive selves and a long-run patient self.” Drew Fudenburg (Harvard U.) and David K. Levine (Washington U.), 2006, A dual-self model of impulse control. American Economic Review, 96(5), 1449-1476.
16. “The planner is concerned with lifetime utility…” R.H. Thaler (Santa Clara) & H. M. Shefrin (Cornell), 1981, An economic theory of self-control, Journal of Political Economy, 89(2), 392-406.
17. “the doer exists only for one period and is completely selfish or myopic.” R.H. Thaler (Santa Clara) & H. M. Shefrin (Cornell), 1981, An economic theory of self-control, Journal of Political Economy, 89(2), 392-406.
18. Examples of dual-self models in behavioral economics Short-term/impulsive Doer Passions Affective/Visceral Hot state Long-term/patient Planner Impartial spectator Deliberative Cold state Fudenberg & Levine Shefrin & Thaler Adam Smith Loewenstein Bernheim & Rangel; Loewenstein
19. Or we could look at neurology “A crucial fact is that the human brain is basically a mammalian brain with a larger cortex. This means human behavior will generally be a compromise between… animal emotions and instincts, and… human deliberation and foresight.” C. Camerer (Cal Tech), G. Loewenstein (Carnegie-Mellon), D. Prelic (MIT), 2004, Neuroeconomics: Why economics needs brains. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 106(3), 555-579.
20. Can we see two systems in the brain? Areas of the prefrontal cortex are associated with rational, higher cognitive thought. The more central limbic system is the immediate reward system (“dopaminergic”).
21. Watching decision-making happen By making decisions in an fMRI machine, we can see which areas of the brain are activated. BOLD signal indicates blood usage in the area.
22. Limbic system reactions Choices between more $ later, less $ sooner. Earliest option: Today Earliest option: 2 Weeks Earliest option: 1 month S. McClure (Princeton), D. Laibson (Harvard), G. Loewenstein (Carnegie Mellon), J. Cohen (Princeton), 2004, Separate neural systems value immediate and delayed monetary rewards. Science, 306, 503-507.
23. Higher cognitive system reactions Choices between more $ later, less $ sooner. Earliest option: Today Earliest option: 2 Weeks Earliest option: 1 month S. McClure (Princeton), D. Laibson (Harvard), G. Loewenstein (Carnegie Mellon), J. Cohen (Princeton), 2004, Separate neural systems value immediate and delayed monetary rewards. Science, 306, 503-507.
24. Hyperbolic discounting Would you rather receive $100 right now or $101 in a week? Most people choose $100 right now. But when the choice is between $100 a year from now and $101 in a year and a week from now, most people choose $101 in a year and a week. This is time inconsistent, as both choices involve delaying by one week for $1. Note also that choosing $100 right now implies an interest rate charge of 1% per week or APR of 52%
25. Dual-self example Read & van Leeuwen (1998). 200 participants. People who were not hungry, chose the unhealthy snack for delivery in one week 26% of the time They chose the unhealthy snack for immediate consumption 70% of the time ←Next Week Right Now -> 26% 70%
26. Let’s use a simple analogy “The image that I came up with … was that I was a rider on the back of an elephant. I’m holding the reins in my hands, and by pulling one way or the other I can tell the elephant to turn, to stop, or to go. I can direct things, but only when the elephant doesn’t have desires of his own. When the elephant really wants to do something, I’m no match for him.” Dr. Jonathan Haidt, (University of Virginia), The Happiness Hypothesis, 2006, p. 4, Basic Books: New York.
27. Elephant in charge If given total control, the “elephant” side makes choices detrimental to future success and happiness. Long-term Patient Planner Impartial spectator Deliberative Cold state Short-term Impulsive Doer Passions Affective/Visceral Hot state
29. Alter our time preference (develop future-orientation or patience) 2. Pre-commitment strategies (change our elephant’s future environment)
30. How do we work to develop more future-orientation (patience)? Victim of my insatiable need for instant gratification.
31. Economic Theory Nobel prize winning economist Gary Becker and Casey Mulligan present a model of time preference for imperfect humans. People may be too focused on instant gratification, but they can spend effort to develop patience (future-orientation). G. Becker (Chicago) & C. Mulligan (Chicago), 1997, The endogenous determination of time preference. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112(3), 729-758
32. Economic theory: People maximize… A time discount factor (because future enjoyment is not the same as current enjoyment) The enjoyment of future consumption The enjoyment of current consumption G. Becker (Chicago) & C. Mulligan (Chicago), 1997, The endogenous determination of time preference. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112(3), 729-758
33. Becker & Mulligan say we can change it by spending effort (S) to become more future-focused. In standard economics, our time discount preference (β) is pre-set. A time discount factor (because future enjoyment is not the same as current enjoyment) The enjoyment of current consumption The enjoyment of future consumption G. Becker (Chicago) & C. Mulligan (Chicago), 1997, The endogenous determination of time preference. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112(3), 729-758
34. A consumer can “make future pleasures less remote by spending resources (S) on imagining them” A time discount factor (because future enjoyment is not the same as current enjoyment) The enjoyment of current consumption The enjoyment of future consumption G. Becker (Chicago) & C. Mulligan (Chicago), 1997, The endogenous determination of time preference. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112(3), 729-758 , p. 734
35. People can maximize utility “partly by spending time and other resources to produce ‘imagination capital’ that helps them better appreciate future utilities.” G. Becker (Chicago), 1996, Accounting for Tastes. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press, p. 11
36. A Nobel prize winning economist using an economic model incorporating Imagination
37. “How can a person improve his capacity to appreciate the future? What exactly is S? First, Sis partially determined by time and effort spent appreciating future pleasures.” G. Becker (Chicago) & C. Mulligan (Chicago), 1997, The endogenous determination of time preference. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112(3), 729-758 , p. 734
38. “While forming a mental picture of one’s future pleasures may not be incredibly difficult, the process of anticipation is not merely one of image formation but also one of scenario simulation.” G. Becker (Chicago) & C. Mulligan (Chicago), 1997, The endogenous determination of time preference. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112(3), 729-758 , p. 734
39. “Even image formation may not be cheap because images of future pleasures have to be repeatedly refreshed in one’s mind in order to compete with current pleasures.” G. Becker (Chicago) & C. Mulligan (Chicago), 1997, The endogenous determination of time preference. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112(3), 729-758 , p. 734
41. Only emotional goals work The rider may be compelled by logic or emotion The elephant is purely emotional (visceral) To engage the elephant, the imagery of future goals must evoke emotion
42. Time horizon and wealth building In 1998 about 5,000 people over 50 were asked: “In planning your saving and spending, which of the following time periods is most important to you, the next few months, the next year, the next few years, the next 5-10 years, or longer than 10 years?” Comparing people with the same starting wealth, did those with longer time horizons accumulate more wealth in the following 8 years?
43. Wealth growth and time horizon Comparing with the wealth growth of other people with the same starting wealth:
44. Other research finds:Planning ahead->wealth “Why do similar households end up with very different levels of wealth?” “We … measure each household’s ‘propensity to plan.’ We show that those with a higher such propensity spend more time developing financial plans, and that this shift in planning is associated with increased wealth.” Ameriks, J., Caplin, A. (NYU), Leahy, J. (NYU). 2003. Wealth accumulation and the propensity to plan. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(3), 1007-1047.
45. Focusing on long-term goals using imagery and emotion can change your future-orientation.
46. Alter our time preference (develop future-orientation or patience) 2. Pre-commitment strategies (change our elephant’s future environment)
47. Pre-commitment gives the rider control over the elephant’s future environment. Few Temptations Many Temptations
49. 1. Change the rewards and penalties The goal is to change the environment as perceived by the elephant. The elephant is Emotional Focused on now Fears loss Long-term Patient Planner Impartial spectator Deliberative Cold state Short-term Impulsive Doer Passions Affective/Visceral Hot state
50. Elephant characteristic Emotional Focused on now Hates loss Approach Change peer group & social rewardsto alter emotional payoffs of future choices Change immediate rewards of future choices Reframe the felt losses of future choices
51. Are professors’ retirement savings affected by their peers’ savings? Duflo, E. (MIT) & Saez, E. (Harvard), 2002, Participation and investment decisions in a retirement plan: the influence of colleagues’ choices. Journal of Public Economics, 85, 121-148.
52. “When participation [in a retirement savings program] increases by 1 percent in the department, one’s participation increases by 0.2 percent.” Duflo, E. (MIT) & Saez, E. (Harvard), 2002, Participation and investment decisions in a retirement plan: the influence of colleagues’ choices. Journal of Public Economics, 85, 121-148.
53. Are professors’ choice of mutual fund company affected by their peers’ choice? Duflo, E. (MIT) & Saez, E. (Harvard), 2002, Participation and investment decisions in a retirement plan: the influence of colleagues’ choices. Journal of Public Economics, 85, 121-148.
54. “When the average share of the contribution invested in one vendor increases by 1 percent, one’s share in this vendor increases by 0.5 percent on average.” Duflo, E. (MIT) & Saez, E. (Harvard), 2002, Participation and investment decisions in a retirement plan: the influence of colleagues’ choices. Journal of Public Economics, 85, 121-148.
55. Financial peer groups – Microfinance http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMg_Lc6akos(0:00-1:45)
56. 2. Focused on now Change immediate rewards of future choices 3. Hates loss Reframe the felt losses of future choices Negative Choices Positive Choices Reducing the immediate payoff Adding Felt Losses Increasing the immediate payoff Removing Felt Losses
57. Why losses hurt more Is there a conflict between the core “elephant” side of the brain and the rational pre-frontal cortex “rider”. Why? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGQLO_iXKlU 3:06-end
58. Illiquidity may encourage wealth accumulation by reducing the temptation to consume. “All Illiquid assets provide a form of pre-commitment” D. Laibson (Harvard), 1997, Golden eggs and hyperbolic discounting. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112, p.444.
59.
60. Adding felt losses – paying with cash “In studies involving genuine transactions of potentially high value we show that willingness-to-pay can be increased when customers are instructed to use a credit card rather than cash. The effect may be large (up to 100%).” D. Prelec (MIT) & D. Simester (MIT), 2001, Always leave home without it: A further investigation of the credit-card effect on willingness to pay. Marketing Letters ,12, 5-12
61. D. Soman (U. of Toronto), 2003, The effect of payment transparency on consumption: Quasi-experiments from the field. Marketing Letters, 14, 173-183.
62. Removing felt losses Pre-paying for the gym The automatic millionaire Save more tomorrow Keep the change Tax refund splitting
63. Removing felt losses:Save more tomorrow People commit in advance to allocating a portion of their future salary increases toward retirement savings. “the average saving rates for [Save More Tomorrow] program participants increased from 3.5 percent to 13.6 percent over the course of 40 months.” R. Thaler (University of Chicago), S. Benartzi (UCLA), 2004, Save more tomorrow: Using behavioral economics to increase employee saving. Journal of Political Economy, 112, S164-S186
64. Removing felt losses:Bank of America’s Keep the Change “each time you buy something with your Bank of America Check Card, we’ll round up your purchase to the nearest dollar amount and transfer the difference from your checking account to your savings account.” http://www.bankofamerica.com/promos/jump/ktc/ downloaded 7 Nov. 2009
65. Removing felt losses: Tax refund splitting Tax refund splitting is a pre-commitment to put a portion of the tax refund into a savings account In a pilot program “those that did participate saved 236% more than they said they would before hearing about the program” A. Chiou, S. Roe, E. Wozniak, advisor E. Luttmer (Harvard), 2005, An evaluation of tax-refund splitting as an asset-building tool for low-to-middle income individuals. http://www.d2dfund.org/system/files/publications/PAE+R2A2+FINAL.pdf
66. The problem of felt losses in investing Investors prefer to realize gains (sell winners) but not losses (hold losers). This lowers returns as compared to “buy and hold” strategies. Among active traders, “Men underperformed their buy-and-hold portfolios by 2.652 percentage points annually; women underperformed their buy-and-hold portfolios by 1.716 percentage points annually.” B. Barber (UC-Davis) and T. Odean (UC-Davis), Nov/Dec. 1999, The courage of misguided convictions. Financial Analysts Journal, 41-55
68. Each decision point is an opportunity to change direction Increase decision points required for negative options Decrease decision points required for positive options
69. Increasing decision points required for negative options Decreasing decision points Required for positive options
70. Mental accounts(partitions) In standard economics a dollar is a dollar is a dollar. Money is “fungible” In behavioral economics, people put money into different mental categories and react differently to fluctuations in different categories
76. A credit request freeze allows consumers to freeze their credit files. No credit applications without going through the thaw request process.
77. Can you implement your own mandatory cooling off periods? Gold Credit Card 0000 2222 1001 0051 Example:Putting your credit card in a block of ice Other ideas?
78. Increasing decision points required for negative options Decreasing decision points Required for positive options
79. 800,000 eligible employees at 657 companies 401(k) plans ranged from 2 to 60 investment options As choices increased what happened to the likelihood of investing? Decreased b) Increased c) Stayed the same
80. S. Botti (Cornell) & S. S. Iyengar (Columbia), 2006, The dark side of choice: When choice impairs social welfare. Journal of Public Policy and Marketing, 25(1), 24-38.
81. Our decision-making can be thought of as the outcome of a game between the “elephant” and the “rider”. The elephant is (1) emotional, (2) focused on now, (3) fears loss The elephant is stronger, but the rider can alter the elephant’s future environment by Emotional future imaging (2) Changing the elephant’s future rewards and penalties through pre-commitment (3) Changing the number of decision points Long-term Patient Planner Impartial spectator Deliberative Cold state Short-term Impulsive Doer Passions Affective/Visceral Hot state
Note: The Kable & Glimcher article in Nature Neuroscience proports to have falsified the hypothesis that the ventral striatum, medial prefrontal cortex, and posterior singulate cortex form a reward system that primarily values immediate reward. However, their experiment was structured such that (1) there were no choices between two delayed rewards and (2) the immediate reward was always the same and was never presented visually. Itappearrs that their experimental structure created an endowment effect, i.e., where the immediate $20 was already planned/known/expected/owned in every trial, and thus the only impact on immediate reward would be couched in terms of loss. In other words, if these systems only cared about immediate reward, it is possible that the activation related to the predicted probability of loss of the endowment.
See Laibson, David, “Golden Eggs and Hyperbolic Discounting, Quarterly Journal ofEconomics, 112 (1997), 443–477.Robson, A. J. (2002). Evolution and human nature. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 16(2), 89-106.
D. Read (Leeds U.) & B. van Leeuwen (Leeds U.), 1998, Predicting hunger: The effects of appetite and delay on choice. Organizational behavior and human decision processes, 76, 189-205.
From the Health and Retirement Study, Author’s data analysis
Note: comparison group are HRS members who were not asked the question in the 1998 survey. Linear regression on wealth.