Behavioral and Experimental
Economics
What is the ratio of the length to
the width of each table?
Source: Nudge (2008), Thaler and Sunstein
The Answer:
The Two Tables are Identical
The legs and orientation facilitate the illusion that the table tops
are different
Source: Nudge (2008), Thaler and Sunstein
The Key insight that Behavioral
Economics borrows from Psychology
Normally the human mind works
remarkably well. Examples:
-Recognize people we haven’t
seen in years
- Run down a flight of stairs
- Speak 12 languages
But people can be systematically wrong.
We are prone to biased judgment
Recent Examples of Biased Judgment?
Recent Examples of Biased Judgment?
How can people be simultaneously
so smart and so dumb?
Two types of thinking:
1) Intuitive and Automatic
2) Reflective and Rational
The Role of Evolution
Competing Brain Systems
Two Cognitive Systems
Automatic System Reflective System
Uncontrolled Controlled
Effortless Effortful
Associative Deductive
Fast Slow
Unconscious Conscious
Skilled Rule-following
Source: Nudge, Thaler and Sunstein, 2008
A Shaky Plane
Automatic: “The Airplane is shaking. I’m going to die”
Reflective: “Planes are safe”
Dr. Spock and Captain Kirk
Was Adam Smith a behavioral
economist?
The Theory of Moral Sentiments, (1759)
He argued that behavior was determined
by struggle between “passions” and the
“impartial spectator.”
What do you see?
Context and Accessibility
An ambiguous
stimulus that is
perceived as a
letter in one context
is seen as a
number in another
We “see” the
interpretation that is
most likely in its
context but have no
subjective indication
that it could be seen
differently.
Three Dimensions of Bounded
Rationality
 Computational Power
 Willpower
 Self-interest
Unbounded
bounded
Neoclassical
economics
A Continuum
 B.E. 
Example: Build a robot to catch a ball
The Optimization Team
Instruments to measure initial distance,
velocity, projection angle, wind speed
and direction, spin, etc.
Program to determine how this
information interacts.
Robot runs to spot where ball predicted
to land and waits
Example: Build a robot to catch a ball
The Heuristic Team
Have robot freeze during first ½ second
and make crude estimate of whether the
ball is coming down in front or behind it.
Then run in this direction while fixing its
eye on the ball.
Robot catches the ball running.
Adjust running speed so the angle of gaze
remains constant (a simple heuristic).
Bounded Rationality
Unbounded Rationality
Bounded Rationality
 Search for information about alternatives
(spouses) & cues (reason/predictors
when deciding between alternatives).
 full information and optimization
 Search performed in the mind (memory) or
outside of it (e.g., internet, other minds,
etc.) is costly. Thus the ideal of arriving at
the optimal decision is hard to achieve.
General Points
Use of simple heuristics not necessarily a
disadvantage (cheap and effective).
Simple heuristics can exploit regularities in the
environment (e.g. a constant angle of gaze
causes collision of player and ball).
Simple heuristics are domain-specific rather
than universal strategies.
Bounded Rationality:
Simon’s (1956) scissors metaphor
cognitive limits
structure of the
environment
Simple Heuristic:
fix the angle of
your gaze
General Points
Emotions can serve as effective stopping
rules for costly search (e.g., the emotion of
disgust and food avoidance).
Social norms can be seen as fast and frugal
mechanisms dispense with individual cost-
benefit computations.
Imitation can lead to fast learning.
Gigerenzer and Selten (2002):
Compared to the beauty of optimization, the
actual proximal mechanisms of humans and
animals resemble the tools of backwoods
mechanic. The pleasing ideal of a universal
calculus may have distracted researchers in
many fields…. However, there is also another
sense of beauty; the aesthetics of simplicity.
There is a sense of wonder in how simplicity
can produce robustness and accuracy in an
overwhelmingly complex world.
Bounded Self-interest
Selfish and contentious people will not cohere,
and without coherence, nothing can be
effected. A tribe possessing… a greater
number of courageous, sympathetic and
faithful members, who were always ready to
warn each other of danger, to aid and defend
each other… would spread and be victorious
over other tribes… Thus the social and moral
qualities would tend slowly to advance and be
diffused throughout the world..,
-- Charles Darwin, The Descent of Man (1873)
Bounded Self-interest
The Americans… are fond of explaining almost
all the actions of their lives by the principle of
self interest… In this respect I think they
frequently fail to do themselves justice; in the
United States as well as elsewhere people are
some sometimes seen to give way to those
disinterested and spontaneous impulses that
are natural to man; but the Americans seldom
admit that they yield to emotions of this kind.
-- Alexis, de Tocqueville,
Democracy in America (1830)
Puzzles and Anomalies
 the equity premium
 stock market bubbles
 U.S. savings rates near zero
 procrastination, drug abuse, obesity, etc.
 Involuntary unemployment
 Incomplete contracts
 Institutional genesis
Criticism #1 of Behavioral Economics:
Loss of Parsimony not worth the realism
Realism
Generality & Tractability
Neoclassical
Economics
Criticism #2 of Behavioral Economics:
Natural Selection leads to survival of the
rational (“smart money”)
Criticism #3 of Behavioral Economics:
The Wisdom of the Crowd
Idiosyncratic Irrationality
cancels out in markets
“It does not matter what
I or you do. It is how
the whole group
behaves.”
– Gary Becker
http://magazine.uchicago.edu/0502/features/economics.shtml
Behavioral Economics At the
New Millennium
2001
- Akerlof Wins Nobel Prize in Economics
- Rabin Wins John Bates Clark Award
2002
- Kahneman and Vernon Smith Win
Nobel Prize in Economics
2003
- Boston Federal Reserve Conference
Themes from Boston:
1. Because human brains have evolved to solve complex
social problems, people’s behavior tends to change as
their circumstances change, undermining consistency
across time and context; however, this lack of
consistency is not a fault — rather, it is a defining
capacity that enables us to engage in complex social
situations.
2. Although individuals perceive themselves to be unitary
creatures, that impression is largely illusory; the brain
consists of multiple subsystems, and, although the
various subsystems do communicate, the dominant role
shifts across subsystems according to context.
Themes from Boston:
3. Unconscious behaviors are the ones that are relatively
predictable; it is consciousness that introduces the
element of unpredictability in human behavior.
4. Given the structure of the human brain, it is unlikely that
humans will behave as if they are consistently
maximizing any single utility function.
5. Neural evidence distinguishes four different kinds of utility
— anticipated, remembered, choice, and experienced.
6. The role of fairness and trust in informal contractual
relations is especially crucial for understanding the limits
to markets and the roles of relational contracts.

BF_Introduction_2011.ppt

  • 1.
  • 2.
    What is theratio of the length to the width of each table? Source: Nudge (2008), Thaler and Sunstein
  • 3.
    The Answer: The TwoTables are Identical The legs and orientation facilitate the illusion that the table tops are different Source: Nudge (2008), Thaler and Sunstein
  • 4.
    The Key insightthat Behavioral Economics borrows from Psychology Normally the human mind works remarkably well. Examples: -Recognize people we haven’t seen in years - Run down a flight of stairs - Speak 12 languages But people can be systematically wrong. We are prone to biased judgment
  • 5.
    Recent Examples ofBiased Judgment?
  • 6.
    Recent Examples ofBiased Judgment?
  • 7.
    How can peoplebe simultaneously so smart and so dumb? Two types of thinking: 1) Intuitive and Automatic 2) Reflective and Rational
  • 8.
    The Role ofEvolution
  • 9.
  • 10.
    Two Cognitive Systems AutomaticSystem Reflective System Uncontrolled Controlled Effortless Effortful Associative Deductive Fast Slow Unconscious Conscious Skilled Rule-following Source: Nudge, Thaler and Sunstein, 2008
  • 11.
    A Shaky Plane Automatic:“The Airplane is shaking. I’m going to die” Reflective: “Planes are safe”
  • 12.
    Dr. Spock andCaptain Kirk
  • 13.
    Was Adam Smitha behavioral economist? The Theory of Moral Sentiments, (1759) He argued that behavior was determined by struggle between “passions” and the “impartial spectator.”
  • 14.
  • 15.
    Context and Accessibility Anambiguous stimulus that is perceived as a letter in one context is seen as a number in another We “see” the interpretation that is most likely in its context but have no subjective indication that it could be seen differently.
  • 16.
    Three Dimensions ofBounded Rationality  Computational Power  Willpower  Self-interest Unbounded bounded Neoclassical economics A Continuum  B.E. 
  • 17.
    Example: Build arobot to catch a ball The Optimization Team Instruments to measure initial distance, velocity, projection angle, wind speed and direction, spin, etc. Program to determine how this information interacts. Robot runs to spot where ball predicted to land and waits
  • 18.
    Example: Build arobot to catch a ball The Heuristic Team Have robot freeze during first ½ second and make crude estimate of whether the ball is coming down in front or behind it. Then run in this direction while fixing its eye on the ball. Robot catches the ball running. Adjust running speed so the angle of gaze remains constant (a simple heuristic).
  • 19.
    Bounded Rationality Unbounded Rationality BoundedRationality  Search for information about alternatives (spouses) & cues (reason/predictors when deciding between alternatives).  full information and optimization  Search performed in the mind (memory) or outside of it (e.g., internet, other minds, etc.) is costly. Thus the ideal of arriving at the optimal decision is hard to achieve.
  • 20.
    General Points Use ofsimple heuristics not necessarily a disadvantage (cheap and effective). Simple heuristics can exploit regularities in the environment (e.g. a constant angle of gaze causes collision of player and ball). Simple heuristics are domain-specific rather than universal strategies.
  • 21.
    Bounded Rationality: Simon’s (1956)scissors metaphor cognitive limits structure of the environment Simple Heuristic: fix the angle of your gaze
  • 22.
    General Points Emotions canserve as effective stopping rules for costly search (e.g., the emotion of disgust and food avoidance). Social norms can be seen as fast and frugal mechanisms dispense with individual cost- benefit computations. Imitation can lead to fast learning.
  • 23.
    Gigerenzer and Selten(2002): Compared to the beauty of optimization, the actual proximal mechanisms of humans and animals resemble the tools of backwoods mechanic. The pleasing ideal of a universal calculus may have distracted researchers in many fields…. However, there is also another sense of beauty; the aesthetics of simplicity. There is a sense of wonder in how simplicity can produce robustness and accuracy in an overwhelmingly complex world.
  • 24.
    Bounded Self-interest Selfish andcontentious people will not cohere, and without coherence, nothing can be effected. A tribe possessing… a greater number of courageous, sympathetic and faithful members, who were always ready to warn each other of danger, to aid and defend each other… would spread and be victorious over other tribes… Thus the social and moral qualities would tend slowly to advance and be diffused throughout the world.., -- Charles Darwin, The Descent of Man (1873)
  • 25.
    Bounded Self-interest The Americans…are fond of explaining almost all the actions of their lives by the principle of self interest… In this respect I think they frequently fail to do themselves justice; in the United States as well as elsewhere people are some sometimes seen to give way to those disinterested and spontaneous impulses that are natural to man; but the Americans seldom admit that they yield to emotions of this kind. -- Alexis, de Tocqueville, Democracy in America (1830)
  • 26.
    Puzzles and Anomalies the equity premium  stock market bubbles  U.S. savings rates near zero  procrastination, drug abuse, obesity, etc.  Involuntary unemployment  Incomplete contracts  Institutional genesis
  • 27.
    Criticism #1 ofBehavioral Economics: Loss of Parsimony not worth the realism Realism Generality & Tractability Neoclassical Economics
  • 28.
    Criticism #2 ofBehavioral Economics: Natural Selection leads to survival of the rational (“smart money”)
  • 29.
    Criticism #3 ofBehavioral Economics: The Wisdom of the Crowd Idiosyncratic Irrationality cancels out in markets “It does not matter what I or you do. It is how the whole group behaves.” – Gary Becker http://magazine.uchicago.edu/0502/features/economics.shtml
  • 30.
    Behavioral Economics Atthe New Millennium 2001 - Akerlof Wins Nobel Prize in Economics - Rabin Wins John Bates Clark Award 2002 - Kahneman and Vernon Smith Win Nobel Prize in Economics 2003 - Boston Federal Reserve Conference
  • 31.
    Themes from Boston: 1.Because human brains have evolved to solve complex social problems, people’s behavior tends to change as their circumstances change, undermining consistency across time and context; however, this lack of consistency is not a fault — rather, it is a defining capacity that enables us to engage in complex social situations. 2. Although individuals perceive themselves to be unitary creatures, that impression is largely illusory; the brain consists of multiple subsystems, and, although the various subsystems do communicate, the dominant role shifts across subsystems according to context.
  • 32.
    Themes from Boston: 3.Unconscious behaviors are the ones that are relatively predictable; it is consciousness that introduces the element of unpredictability in human behavior. 4. Given the structure of the human brain, it is unlikely that humans will behave as if they are consistently maximizing any single utility function. 5. Neural evidence distinguishes four different kinds of utility — anticipated, remembered, choice, and experienced. 6. The role of fairness and trust in informal contractual relations is especially crucial for understanding the limits to markets and the roles of relational contracts.