Embraer RI, profile picture
Uploaded byEmbraer RI
PDF, PPTX319 views

Apresentação São Paulo - Mercado Regional

This document provides an overview of the commercial jet market, with a focus on regional jets. It discusses trends in the air transport industry like rising fuel costs and economic growth in emerging markets. It then reviews the RJ50 and ERJ145 regional jet families, noting their importance in feeding larger airline networks and operating in low-density markets. The presentation gives details on order books and deployment of the E-Jets family of 70-120 seat aircraft around the world. It recognizes opportunities and challenges for regional jets in markets like North America, Europe, China, and others.

Embed presentation

Download as PDF, PPTX
Commercial Jets Market Overview Commercial Jets Market Overview Luiz S. Chiessi VP Market Intelligence – Airline Market Jul/2008Jul/2008
This presentation includes forward-looking statements or statements about events or circumstances which have not occurred. We have based these forward-looking statements largely on our current expectations and projections about future events and financial trends affecting our business and our future financial performance. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions, including, among other things: general economic, political and business conditions, both in Brazil and in our market. The words “believes,” “may,” “will,” “estimates,” “continues,” “anticipates,” “intends,” “expects” and similar words are intended to identify forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligations to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements because of new information, future events or other factors. In light of these risks and uncertainties, the forward-looking events and circumstances discussed in this presentation might not occur. Our actual results could differ substantially from those anticipated in our forward-looking statements. Forward Looking StatementForward Looking Statement
Air Transport Industry Review RJ50 Market & the ERJ145 Family 70 to 120-seat Market & the E-Jets Competitive Scenario Contents
Air Transport Industry Review
Some relief in fuel price for 2009 / 2010?Some relief in fuel price for 2009 / 2010?
Estimated US GDP Growth (as of Jun 2008)Estimated US GDP Growth (as of Jun 2008) Quarter over Quarter Growth % (Annualized Rates) 1.81.61.80.2 Prior Survey Results (May/08)
Emerging EconomiesEmerging Economies World Real GDP Share (Measured in Yr2000 US$ PPP) Emerging economies increasing their share of global output 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1997 2007 2017 2027 Other Advanced Economies Japan United States Eurozone Other Emerging Economies India China Source: Global Insight (Jun/08)
-6.7 -2.6 2.8 -2.8 -4.2 1.6 1.8 2.1 0.6 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.4 -0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 -0.1-0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3-0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -4.1 -0.5 5.6 -2.3 -6.1 -0.4 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 2005 2006 2007 2008F 2008F North America Europe Asia-Pacific Middle East Latin America Africa Global Industry Net ResultsIndustry Net Results Source: IATA Economics Jun/08 (ICAO data to 2007 and IATA Forecast 2008-2009) Values in US$ Billion Global and US net results includes restructuring costs and excludes United Airlines ‘fresh-start’ accounting losses and gains Scenario 1 US$80-120 per barrel Scenario 2 US$120-140 per barrel Profitability is not expected to be achieved until 2010 or later US$Billion
What can we expect?What can we expect? • World air transport demand keeps growing despite US slowdown • More consolidation, merges and less start-ups • Capacity cuts (mainly in the US) • Fare increases & slowdown in demand • Additional quest for efficiency: cost cuts, higher LFs and higher aircraft utilization • Early retirement of older jets • Better match of aircraft capacity to a lower demand
RJ50s & the ERJ145 Family
ERJ 145 Family Order Book 4169275733ERJ 145 41 0 0 Firm Backlog 87475915Total 74074ERJ 140 1080108ERJ 135 DeliveriesOptions Firm Orders (June 30th, 2008) September, 2007
Dec 1998Dec 1998 Dec 1999Dec 1999 Aug 2000Aug 2000 Dec 1996Dec 1996 First DeliveryFirst Delivery May 2003May 2003Mar 2001Mar 2001 Sep 2001Sep 2001 May 2002May 2002 Feb 2005Feb 2005May 2004May 2004 1,000 ERJ Platforms Already Delivered September, 2007September, 2007
0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 5-25 26-50 51-75 76-100 101-150 151-200 201-300 >300Market Density (PDEW) AnnualFlights RJ50s – Market Density Profile US Domestic (2007) Source: BACK / OD1A 2007 76-100 7% 101-150 10% 151-200 5% >200 19% 5-25 29% 26-50 19% 51-75 11% % 2007 RJ50 Flights per Market Density (PDEW Class) Almost 60% of all RJ50 flights served low density markets
US Hub & Spoke – RJ50 Importance Regional Carriers Passenger Type Breakdown 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 5-25 26-50 51-75 76-100 101-150 151-200 201-300 RJ30-60 Connecting Passenger Local Passenger RJ50 is a fundamental feeder of network operations, especially in low density markets (two connecting passengers for each local passengers) Source: BACK - RJ50 operations with 1 coupon 3:1 2:1 1:1 1:1 1:1 1:2 1:2 2:1 PDEW :
RJ50 – Importance to the Air Transport SystemRJ50 – Importance to the Air Transport System Feeding system is vital for Airline´s Success Seabury Group – FAA Forecast Conference (Mar 11, 2008) Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes RJ50 Presence
Source: US DOT (T100) RJ50 – Relevance to the US Transport SystemRJ50 – Relevance to the US Transport System 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2000 2007 PaxEnplanements(Millions) Other Aircraft RJ50 RJ50s carried more than 90 mi passengers (13% of all US domestic) 2/3 of all RJ50 passengers (~61 millions) are connecting CAGR: 25.1% CAGR: 0.1% 3% 13%RJ50 - % of all US domestic enplanements US Domestic (2007)
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2000 2008E 2000 2008E 2000 2008E 2000 2008E 2000 2008E 2000 2008E ASMOffered 30-60 61-90 US Regionals: Trend to higher capacity aircraft Capacity Share by Jet Capacity Segment Source: BACK (not considered AVRO operation in 2000 for Northwest) Backlog: NW: 12 E175 15 CRJ900 DL: 17 CRJ900 UA: 14 CRJ700 SKYW: 18 CRJ700 4 CRJ900 REP: 17 E175 Source: EMB (as of Jun 2008) BBD (as of Apr 2008) Skywest Airlines regional operations: CO, DL and UA Republic Airways regional operations: AA, CO, DL, UA and US
$0,00 $0,04 $0,08 $0,12 $0,16 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Distance (sm) Aircraft Direct Operating Cost $0,00 $0,04 $0,08 $0,12 $0,16 Jet 50 Jet 158 Most of the operating cost difference between small jets and big jets is due to the distance they fly, not the airplane size. -42% CASM($) -12% As reported. Adjusted for distance (409 sm). Source: US form 41 - fiscal year ending 3Q07 Airplane variable + ownership cost
$0,00 $0,04 $0,08 $0,12 $0,16 Jet 50 Jet 158 Source: US form 41 - fiscal year ending 3Q07 Airplane variable + ownership cost Fuel Price Impact on Aircraft Cost Rising fuel prices affect big airplanes as much as small airplanes. CASM($) 19% 21% Fuel at $2 Fuel at $3
Source: Airlines (Jun/18/08) (*) United Airlines report "North America" figures, what includes transborder flights to Canada. 10 CRJ-200 17 B737-300 ; 4 B757; 4 A3203 to 5% ▲ 4 to 6% ▲ -5 to -3% ▼ Regional System 23 EMB-120 “Some of United’s 737 routes will be down-gauged to 50- to 70-seaters, which are operated by regional affiliates under the United Express banner”. (Jake Brace, UAL CFO - Merrill Lynch Conf. Jun 18, 2008) 64 B737-300 ; 30 B737-500 ; 6 B747 1.5 to 2.5% ▲ 0 to 1% ▲ -8 to -7% ▼ (*) Regional Mainline -2% ▼ -13% ▼ -7% ▼ 50 to 55% ▲ -9.5 to -8.5% ▼ -13% ▼ 3.6% ▲ -4.5% ▼ -6.5 to -5.5% ▼ -6 to -5% ▼ Domestic 2008 ASM Forecast (compared to 2007) 15 to 17% ▲ 4.7% ▲ 1 to 2% ▲ International Adjustments to the fleet, will be made available at a later date. (AC Press Release - Jun 17, 2008) Domestic Transborder International Regional growth: introduction of 76-seater 26 DC-9-30 ; 7 DC-9-40/50; 4 A319 ; 4 A320 ; 6 B757 Regional (4Q08) System (4Q08) 12 ATR-72 ; 60-70 Regional Jets 15 MD-80 ; 3 B757 ; 2 B767-300 System (1H08) 3 Beech 1900 ; 24 CRJ-200 ; 30 ERJ135; 10 ERJ145 47 B737-300 ; 20 B737-500 Regional Mainline 35 to 40 Regional Jets ; 26 Saab 340 55 MD-80 ; 3 A300 Regional Mainline 2008-2012Airline Aircraft Removal Plan U.S. Capacity Reduction Plan • 184 RJ50s to be removed by the end of 2012 • RJ50s are essential to feed/support international expansion
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 TP J30-60 J61-90 J91-120 NB WB U.S. Airlines Capacity Reductions for 2008U.S. Airlines Capacity Reductions for 2008 • Forecasted Change in ASM Network Carriers -20 bln ASM (-2.7%) Regional Carriers +3 bln ASM (+3.3%) mainly from backlog in J70/J80 Largest Fleet Reduction J140 Segment (-118 units) 2007 2008E Source: BACK, Airlines and Embraer ASM (billion) 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 TP J30-60 J61-90 J91-120 NB WB Fleet in Service – Number of Aircraft -1%-2%-33%25%-8%-8% FIS08E vs. FIS07 Backlog Removed -7-91-5283-119-41 14414102020 -8-135-66-19-119-61 Number of aircraft
Mexico - RJ50 EvolutionMexico - RJ50 Evolution • 2004 2007 405 nm405 nmAv. Stage Length 1818Markets 55# Aircraft ERJ145RJ50 369 nm362 nmAv. Stage Length 78106Markets 2744# Aircraft ERJ145RJ50 Source: BACK (Dec/07), RJ50 includes ERJ145 and CRJ100/200/440
RJ50 Market Opportunities – CIS Yakovlev Yak-40 30-seat jet Aircraft in service Scheduled Airlines: 176 Non-Scheduled Airlines: 110 Average age: 33 years 458 aircraft requiring replacement Replacement already started: Dniproavia’s ERJ145 Tupolev Tu-134 70-seat jet Aircraft in service Scheduled Airlines: 135 Non-Scheduled Airlines: 37 Average age: 30 years Source: BACK (Mar/08 – CIS includes Russia)
20062003 Source: CAAC RJ50 Evolution in China China´´´´s RJ aviation is growing at slower pace but has huge potential 196 Markets - 45 A/C 223 Markets - 61 A/C 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% USA Europe China 30-120 Seats 120-210 Seats unbalanced jet fleet 11% 33% 42% % of Fleet
RJ50 Market Trends • RJ50 feeder is fundamental to support US hub and spoke system • High fuel prices forcing airlines to revise RJ50 short-haul and long/thin operations • Regionals trend towards high capacity aircraft (75 seater) • Potential US removal of up to 250 RJ50 units in five years • China will absorb additional new units to achieve a better capacity balance in its fleet • Secondary markets will keep expanding – used RJ50s moving to CIS, Mexico, Africa and South America
70 to 12070 to 120--seatseat Market & the EMarket & the E--JetsJets
E-Jets Family Order Book 75217796EMBRAER 195 437 270 46 46 Firm Backlog 410827847Total 161467431EMBRAER 190 88173134EMBRAER 175 140110186EMBRAER 170 DeliveriesOptions Firm Orders (June 30th, 2008)
Source: BACK, Embraer E-Jets Deployment - North AmericaE-Jets Deployment - North America 27% 51% 8% 14% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Natural Growth Right-sizing Direct Replacement New Markets E-Jets Jun/08 17 E175 76 E170 37 E175 28 E19019 E190 12 E17524 E175 15 E175 45 E190 126252 69 E19036 E190 BacklogDeliveries
E-Jets Deployment - Europe/CIS Source: BACK, Embraer 42% 43% 7% 8% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Natural Growth Right-sizing Direct Replacement New Markets 1 E190 9 E170 5 E190 6 E190 1 E1951 E195 10 E190 10 E195 5 E1903 E190 5 E1951 E195 30 E190 2 E19512 E195 5 E190 10 E170 8 E190 6 E170 E-Jets Jun/08 9565 12 E175 10 E170 6 E175 2 E170 BacklogDeliveries
8% 78% 15% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Natural Growth Right-sizing New Markets E-Jets Deployment - Middle East & Africa Source: BACK, Embraer 8 E1902 E195 7 E170 3 E190 2 E170 1 E1702 E170 6 E1706 E170 15 E170 E-Jets Jun/08 2733 1 E170 5 E195 2 E175 BacklogDeliveries
5% 20% 75% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Right-sizing Direct Replacement New Markets E-Jets Deployment - Asia Pacific & ChinaE-Jets Deployment - Asia Pacific & China Source: BACK, Embraer 7 E170 ETA Star Aviation 2 E170 10 E170 1 E170 1 E190 1 E170 1 E190 2 E170 3 E175 1 E190 1 E195 6 E190 47 E1903 E190 E-Jets Jun/08 8426 2 E170 13 E190 4 E170 5 E190 BacklogDeliveries
E-Jets Deployment - Latin AmericaE-Jets Deployment - Latin America 21% 61% 18% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Natural Growth Right-sizing New Markets Source: BACK, Embraer 5 E175 20 E195 2 E170 3 E190 36 E195 4 E190 11 E190 2 E170 2 E19013 E190 4 E1908 E190 E-Jets Jun/08 7834 1 E175 1 E190 BacklogDeliveries
27% 42% 26% 8% 7% 6% 51% 42% 53% 14% 8% 15% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% North America Europe World %ofTotalE-JetsMarkets Natural Growth Direct Replacement Right-sizing New Markets E-Jets Deployment – Summary Source: BACK, Embraer 53% of E-Jets operations: right-sizing of narrowbody services
Narrow-body Complement - North America 6:00 8:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 2008 436 2007 318 Charlotte – Toronto Seats* Source: BACK (4Q06) *4th Wednesday of January 2007 1,033 A319 2008 992 Toronto - Halifax E190A320 A320 A320 A320 A320 A320 A319 E190 A320 A319 A319 A319 E190 E190 737-300 737-300 CRJ-200 E170 737-300 E175 737-400
Air Canada – Merrill Lynch Global Transportation Conference (Jun/2007) COPY Domestic International
"What could be better if you're looking at a high fuel cost, increasing passenger ticket price environment, which will logically lead to decreased demand, than to have the most efficient, comfortable aircraft in the 100-seat category, which is the Embraer 190?" Mr. Robert Milton told reporters after the ACE annual meeting. The Globe and Mail and Financial Post Robert Milton (AC) statement on June 30th, 2008Robert Milton (AC) statement on June 30th, 2008
Helsinki - Gothenburg Helsinki - Dusseldorf Helsinki - Warsaw 2006 2007 2008 2006 2007 2008 2006 2007 2008 Seats Oferred 126 202 304 126 226 278 76 202 252 6:00 E170 E170 8:00 A319 E170 E170 E170 A319 10:00 A319 12:00 E170 E170 14:00 16:00 E170 A320 A319 E170 E190 18:00 A319 E170 E170 20:00 E170 22:00 Midnight E170/190 at FinnairE170/190 at Finnair E-Jets Right-sizing at Finnair: 76% of E170/190 markets 18 markets complementing A319/320s ; 11 markets replacing A319/320s/ MD-80s Source: BACK (Jan/08) *4th Wednesday of January
E170 at EgyptairE170 at Egyptair Cairo - Sharm El Sheikh Cairo - Luxor Cairo - Hurghada 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007 Seats Oferred 756 707 432 780 352 583 6:00 A320 B737-500 A320 A320 A320 A321 B737-500 B737-500 B737-500 8:00 A320 A320 E170 E170 A340 E170 10:00 B737-500 12:00 E170 E170 E170 14:00 B737-500 16:00 E170 E170 18:00 E170 20:00 E170 E170 22:00 A320 E170 A320 Midnight B737-500 B737-500 A321 E-Jets Right-sizing at Egyptair: 52% of E170 routes 2 markets complementing A320/321 ; 4 markets replacing A320/321 Source: BACK (Jan/08) *4th Wednesday of January
E-Jets Interchanged with NarrowbodiesE-Jets Interchanged with Narrowbodies E-Jets Narrowbodies Source: BACK Denver - Montreal 1,400 nm Spring Summer Fall Winter Spring Summer Fall Winter Apr/06 E-Jets provide year-round network coverage, optimizing fleet capacity to seasonal market demand New York City - Portland (JFK-PWM) 274 sm Spring Summer Fall Winter Spring Summer Fall Winter Apr/06
Source: BACK (Jan/08) Efficiency and flexibility also for long haul domestic/transborder markets Toronto - Seattle 1,783 nm; 4:57 (1 Daily) Boston - Austin 1,470 nm; 4:17 (1 Daily) Chicago - Edmonton 1,231 nm; 3:39 (2 Daily) Philadelphia - Houston 1,150 nm; 3:41 (4 Daily) Minneapolis - Vancouver 1,243 nm; 3:44 (1 Daily) Denver - Los Cabos 1,040 nm; 3:06 (1 Daily) Atlanta - Queretaro 1,154 nm; 3:38 (1/2 Daily) E-Jets Deployment in Long Haul MarketsE-Jets Deployment in Long Haul Markets
Fuel & Maintenance Cost Savings vs. Older JetsFuel & Maintenance Cost Savings vs. Older Jets $0 $500 $1.000 $1.500 $2.000 $2.500 $3.000 $3.500 $4.000 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Additional Fuel Burn (%) vs. E170 AdditionalAnnualCost(US$- thousands)Vs.E170 E175 F70 BAe 146-100 BAe 146-200 AVRO RJ-85 DC-9-10 500 nm Sector, Full Pax, Network Environment (3,200 annual BH), Jet Fuel Price $3.00/gallon E170/175 can offer up to US$ 2.2 million yearly fuel savings and up to US$ 1.3 million maintenance cost savings
500 nm Sector, Full Pax, Network Environment (3,200 annual BH), Jet Fuel Price $3.00/gallon $0 $500 $1.000 $1.500 $2.000 $2.500 $3.000 $3.500 $4.000 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Additional Fuel Burn (%) vs. E190 AdditionalAnnualCost(US$- thousands)Vs.E190 E195 717 F100 737-500 737-300 DC-9-30 MD-87 Fuel & Maintenance Cost Savings vs. Older Jets E190/195 can offer up to US$ 2.7 million yearly fuel savings and up to US$ 1.2 million maintenance cost savings
26% of 61-120 fleet (666 acft) with more than 20 years 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 0-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 31-35 >35 Age (Years) NumberofAircraft Source: BACK (Dec/07) World Fleet Age Profile (61-120 seats): 2,582 jets / 14 years average age 142,582World 929China 19215Asia Pacific 1379Middle East 22143Africa 24272Russia & CIS 11655Europe 22305Latin America 8884North America Avg. Age # Acft.Region Nearly 700 aircraft (26% of fleet) need replacement in the coming years. Retirement cycle may be antecipated due to fuel costs and environment. Market Opportunities - ReplacementMarket Opportunities - Replacement
1 2 3 4 9 14 19 29 45 50 Customers/ Operators 60 110 112 118 245 343 440 764 847 619 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jun/ 08 AccumulatedFirmOrders Source: Embraer Deliveries E-Jets Customer Base EvolutionE-Jets Customer Base Evolution ETA Star Aviation
E-Jets Worldwide Distribution Growing and diversified customer-base across five continents. Increased presence in emerging markets with established carriers. 14% 19% 47% 13% 7% Asia Pacific / China Middle East / Africa Europe/CIS Latin America North America 21% 26% 19% 17% 17% Customers Firm Orders Source: Embraer (Jun/08)
E-Jets - Efficiency to all Business Models Source: Embraer (Jun/08 ; Sirte Oil, GECAS and Jetscape not presented) Regional Network Low Cost Charter ETA Star Aviation
4% 19% 15% 34% 28% Embraer Worldwide Backlog Distribution Increased presence in emerging markets. Emerging Countries North America Western Europe Latin America ROW Backlog (437 aircraft) Source: Embraer (Jun/08) Emerging Coutries: China, India, Brazil, Emerging Europe (Central Europe & the Balkans + CIS); Latin America does not include Brazil
Competitive Scenario
Source: BACK – OAG (4Q07) 45% 12% 43% 27% 13% 60% Narrowbody Regional Jet Monopoly Large CRJs 171 Markets E-Jets 93 Markets E-Jets vs. Large CRJs Competitive ProfileE-Jets vs. Large CRJs Competitive Profile E-Jets are clearly being used by airlines to compete against narrowbody aircraft; CRJs are being more used in monopoly routes.
Backlog Evolution ComparisonBacklog Evolution Comparison Source: Embraer, Bombardier, ACAS E-Jets have a strong competitive position price premium 245 297 322 410 430 437 111 105 84 76 165 175 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jun/08 Backlog-NumberofAircraft E-Jets Backlog CRJ 700/900/1000 Backlog
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t Competition: E-Jets vs. New players China and countries with Chinese influence. FB: Higher COC: Higher DOC: ? Product: Conventional Risk: Moderate Supp.: from scratch ARJ21 x E175 Product: New Concept Risk: High Supp.: from scratch Product: Conventional Risk: Moderate Supp.: from scratch Overview Eastern Europe, maybe also Western Europe (political reasons). FB: Similar COC: Similar DOC: Lower SSJ 95 x E190 Initially to be proved in Japan/ Asia Pacific. FB: Lower COC: Similar DOC: ? MRJ 90 x E175 Fuel/ COC/ DOC vs. E-Jets Potential MarketsAircraft
Embraer´s views on CSeries Value PropositionsEmbraer´s views on CSeries Value Propositions • The most significant propositions of the CSeries are: • Lower Engine SFC • Lower External Noise • Estimated impacts on aircraft efficiency: • OEW: 5.5 tons heavier than E195 (vs. C110) • Wet Area: 11.7% larger than E195 • Other offsets may come from new technologies risks: • New platform design and full FBW lacking strong experience • High composite level on high cycle aircraft • New engine with new technology • Most part of the SFC benefit is cancelled by the “family” requirements: • Optimization point is on C130 (C110 with same engine / structure) • Longer range (C110 capability exceeds 3,000 nm) • Accomodation for future “C150” needs
Market Share - World (30-60 seats) 45 32 17 7 52 48 47 45 46 4745 47 48 47 52 52 48 5556 55 54 53 68 83 93 53 53 53 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jun/08 (%) Embraer: ERJ 145/140/135 Bombardier: CRJ100/200/440
Market Share - World (61-120 seats) 2 32 5 2 38 23 2122 17 454646 4444 40 32 36 39 38 44 42 33 34 25 5 7911 100 100 99 60 28 17 16 16 4 4 12 16 2129 30 4 6 98 4 7 2 5 42 2 10 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jun/08 (%) Embraer: 170/175/190/195 Bombardier: CRJ700/900/1000 Airbus: A318 Boeing: B737-600 AVIC I: ARJ-21 Sukhoi: Superjet 100 Antonov: An-148 Mitsubishi: MRJ90
Market Share - World (30-120 seats) 59 52 47 1 2 45 4242 44 38 34 24 11 5 464747 45 45 43 52 44 48 50505150 44 51 44 233 3 37 38 23 14 8 4 4 4 2 2 345 8 8 2 23 2 22 4 1 21 1 10 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jun/08 (%) Embraer: ERJ 145/140/135 ; Embraer 170/175/190/195 Bombardier: CRJ100/200/440/700/900/1000 Airbus: A318 Boeing: B737-600 AVIC I: ARJ-21 Sukhoi: Superjet 100 Antonov: An-148 Mitsubishi: MRJ90
# US Parked Acft by Equip (2001-2000) 17DC-10-30 19737-700 22FOKKER 100 23737-300 25MD-82 29DC-9-30 105737-200 106727-200 During slowdown periods, smaller aircraft help airlines keeping market presence and are more part of the solution than of the problem.
E-Jets around the world: 48 Airlines / 34 Countries E-Jets around the world: 48 Airlines / 34 Countries Star * Thank You The information contained herein is the property of Embraer S.A. and shall not be copied or used without Embraer’s written consent.

More Related Content

PDF
2006* Farnborough Airshow ApresentaçãO AviaçãO Comercial
byEmbraer RI
 
PDF
IR Institutional Presentation - November 2013
byEmbraer RI
 
PPTX
1.0 embraer 4 q15_results_final_v2
byEmbraer RI
 
PDF
Embraer february 2016 book ri
byEmbraer RI
 
PDF
Embraer Day BR 2014 Executive Jets
byEmbraer RI
 
PDF
Embraer 2 q15_results_final
byEmbraer RI
 
PDF
IR Institutional Presentation - May 2013
byEmbraer RI
 
PPTX
3.0 embraer day march 2016 final2
byEmbraer RI
 
2006* Farnborough Airshow ApresentaçãO AviaçãO Comercial
byEmbraer RI
 
IR Institutional Presentation - November 2013
byEmbraer RI
 
1.0 embraer 4 q15_results_final_v2
byEmbraer RI
 
Embraer february 2016 book ri
byEmbraer RI
 
Embraer Day BR 2014 Executive Jets
byEmbraer RI
 
Embraer 2 q15_results_final
byEmbraer RI
 
IR Institutional Presentation - May 2013
byEmbraer RI
 
3.0 embraer day march 2016 final2
byEmbraer RI
 

What's hot

PDF
Embraer november 2015 book ri
byEmbraer RI
 
PDF
Conference Call 4Q12
byEmbraer RI
 
PDF
Embraer march 2016 book ri
byEmbraer RI
 
PDF
Embraer 3 q15_results_final
byEmbraer RI
 
PDF
Emb day executive aviation oct2013
byEmbraer RI
 
PDF
Conference Call 4Q13
byEmbraer RI
 
PDF
Embraer 4 q14_results_final (8)
byEmbraer RI
 
PDF
Embraer Day BR 2014 Defense
byEmbraer RI
 
PDF
IR Institutional Presentation - June 2013
byEmbraer RI
 
Embraer november 2015 book ri
byEmbraer RI
 
Conference Call 4Q12
byEmbraer RI
 
Embraer march 2016 book ri
byEmbraer RI
 
Embraer 3 q15_results_final
byEmbraer RI
 
Emb day executive aviation oct2013
byEmbraer RI
 
Conference Call 4Q13
byEmbraer RI
 
Embraer 4 q14_results_final (8)
byEmbraer RI
 
Embraer Day BR 2014 Defense
byEmbraer RI
 
IR Institutional Presentation - June 2013
byEmbraer RI
 

Viewers also liked

PDF
2002* Segundo Encontro Anual Com Analistas E Investidores ApresentaçãO Fina...
byEmbraer RI
 
PDF
2007* Engineering Embraer Day 2007
byEmbraer RI
 
PDF
2004* 5o.Encontro Anual De Investidores Da Embraer Programa Embraer 170 190...
byEmbraer RI
 
PDF
2006* Defense & Government Embraer Day 2006
byEmbraer RI
 
PDF
Second Annual Analysts & Investors Presentation - Financial Presentation
byEmbraer RI
 
PDF
2007 - 7th Analysts And Investors Meeting Results & Performance
byEmbraer RI
 
PDF
2007 - First Quarter 2007 Results
byEmbraer RI
 
PDF
Third Annual Analyst & Investor Meeting Customer Services
byEmbraer RI
 
PDF
2006 - Embraer A&I Meeting Corporate Overview
byEmbraer RI
 
PDF
2002* Csfb & Aviation Week Aerospace & Defense Finance Conference
byEmbraer RI
 
2002* Segundo Encontro Anual Com Analistas E Investidores ApresentaçãO Fina...
byEmbraer RI
 
2007* Engineering Embraer Day 2007
byEmbraer RI
 
2004* 5o.Encontro Anual De Investidores Da Embraer Programa Embraer 170 190...
byEmbraer RI
 
2006* Defense & Government Embraer Day 2006
byEmbraer RI
 
Second Annual Analysts & Investors Presentation - Financial Presentation
byEmbraer RI
 
2007 - 7th Analysts And Investors Meeting Results & Performance
byEmbraer RI
 
2007 - First Quarter 2007 Results
byEmbraer RI
 
Third Annual Analyst & Investor Meeting Customer Services
byEmbraer RI
 
2006 - Embraer A&I Meeting Corporate Overview
byEmbraer RI
 
2002* Csfb & Aviation Week Aerospace & Defense Finance Conference
byEmbraer RI
 

Similar to Apresentação São Paulo - Mercado Regional

PDF
Commercial aviation embraer day 2010 10_29
byEmbraer RI
 
PDF
Commercial aviation embraer day 2010 10_29
byEmbraer RI
 
PDF
Airline marketing embraer day 2007
byEmbraer RI
 
PDF
IR Institutional Presentation - July 2013
byEmbraer RI
 
PDF
IR Institutional Presentation - September 2013
byEmbraer RI
 
PDF
2004* ConferêNcia Santander Cancun (DisponíVel Apenas Em InglêS)
byEmbraer RI
 
PPTX
Aerospace Industry Outlook
byjcossette
 
PPT
Embraer october 2011 book
byEmbraer RI
 
PPT
Embraer Presentation (Nov.11)
byEmbraer RI
 
PDF
Embraer november 2010 redburn
byEmbraer RI
 
PDF
ICF MRO Market Forecast & Trends – Asia Pacific March 9-10, 2016 Airline E&M:...
byICF
 
PPT
Embraer october 2011 book
byEmbraer RI
 
PDF
Airbus presentation global market forecast_2015-2034
bySamir EL HAIDOURI
 
PPTX
Easy jet presentation
byAndriy Gerus
 
PDF
Boeing current market_outlook_2012-3031
byAlberto Garcia Romera
 
PDF
Marlet Outlook
byAngelo Sorrentino
 
PPTX
B2B Assignment - Airbus A380 - Ruchi Thapa
byruchthapa
 
PDF
MRO Market Update and Industry Trends
byICF
 
PDF
Emb day commercial aviation oct2013
byEmbraer RI
 
PDF
MARKET FORECAST 2014 – 2033
bySeda Eskiler
 
Commercial aviation embraer day 2010 10_29
byEmbraer RI
 
Commercial aviation embraer day 2010 10_29
byEmbraer RI
 
Airline marketing embraer day 2007
byEmbraer RI
 
IR Institutional Presentation - July 2013
byEmbraer RI
 
IR Institutional Presentation - September 2013
byEmbraer RI
 
2004* ConferêNcia Santander Cancun (DisponíVel Apenas Em InglêS)
byEmbraer RI
 
Aerospace Industry Outlook
byjcossette
 
Embraer october 2011 book
byEmbraer RI
 
Embraer Presentation (Nov.11)
byEmbraer RI
 
Embraer november 2010 redburn
byEmbraer RI
 
ICF MRO Market Forecast & Trends – Asia Pacific March 9-10, 2016 Airline E&M:...
byICF
 
Embraer october 2011 book
byEmbraer RI
 
Airbus presentation global market forecast_2015-2034
bySamir EL HAIDOURI
 
Easy jet presentation
byAndriy Gerus
 
Boeing current market_outlook_2012-3031
byAlberto Garcia Romera
 
Marlet Outlook
byAngelo Sorrentino
 
B2B Assignment - Airbus A380 - Ruchi Thapa
byruchthapa
 
MRO Market Update and Industry Trends
byICF
 
Emb day commercial aviation oct2013
byEmbraer RI
 
MARKET FORECAST 2014 – 2033
bySeda Eskiler
 

More from Embraer RI

PPTX
5.0 embraer day ny march2016 defense r.15
byEmbraer RI
 
PPTX
4.0 embraer day br 2016 commercial aviation rev7
byEmbraer RI
 
PPTX
2.0 embraer day agenda
byEmbraer RI
 
PPTX
3 embraer day ny 2015 defesa-final_3
byEmbraer RI
 
PDF
Emb day executive aviation oct2013 (2)
byEmbraer RI
 
PDF
Embraer december 2015 book ri
byEmbraer RI
 
PDF
5 embraer day 2015 vae bf-final_v2_sc_site
byEmbraer RI
 
PPTX
1 embraer 3-q15_results_final
byEmbraer RI
 
PPTX
5 embraer day 2015 vae bf-final
byEmbraer RI
 
PPTX
2015 10 8 emb day - commercial rev-final
byEmbraer RI
 
PPTX
3 embraer day ny 2015 defesa-final_3
byEmbraer RI
 
PPTX
2015 10 8 emb day - commercial rev9
byEmbraer RI
 
PPTX
Embraer 2 q15_results_final
byEmbraer RI
 
PDF
Embraer august 2015 book ri
byEmbraer RI
 
PDF
Embraer may 2015 book ri
byEmbraer RI
 
PDF
Embraer 1 q15_results_final (1)
byEmbraer RI
 
PDF
Embraer march 2015 book ri (1)
byEmbraer RI
 
PDF
Embraer 4 q14_results_final (1)
byEmbraer RI
 
PDF
Embraer december 2014 book ri
byEmbraer RI
 
PDF
Embraer 3 q14_results_final
byEmbraer RI
 
5.0 embraer day ny march2016 defense r.15
byEmbraer RI
 
4.0 embraer day br 2016 commercial aviation rev7
byEmbraer RI
 
2.0 embraer day agenda
byEmbraer RI
 
3 embraer day ny 2015 defesa-final_3
byEmbraer RI
 
Emb day executive aviation oct2013 (2)
byEmbraer RI
 
Embraer december 2015 book ri
byEmbraer RI
 
5 embraer day 2015 vae bf-final_v2_sc_site
byEmbraer RI
 
1 embraer 3-q15_results_final
byEmbraer RI
 
5 embraer day 2015 vae bf-final
byEmbraer RI
 
2015 10 8 emb day - commercial rev-final
byEmbraer RI
 
3 embraer day ny 2015 defesa-final_3
byEmbraer RI
 
2015 10 8 emb day - commercial rev9
byEmbraer RI
 
Embraer 2 q15_results_final
byEmbraer RI
 
Embraer august 2015 book ri
byEmbraer RI
 
Embraer may 2015 book ri
byEmbraer RI
 
Embraer 1 q15_results_final (1)
byEmbraer RI
 
Embraer march 2015 book ri (1)
byEmbraer RI
 
Embraer 4 q14_results_final (1)
byEmbraer RI
 
Embraer december 2014 book ri
byEmbraer RI
 
Embraer 3 q14_results_final
byEmbraer RI
 

Apresentação São Paulo - Mercado Regional

  • 1.
    Commercial Jets Market Overview CommercialJets Market Overview Luiz S. Chiessi VP Market Intelligence – Airline Market Jul/2008Jul/2008
  • 2.
    This presentation includesforward-looking statements or statements about events or circumstances which have not occurred. We have based these forward-looking statements largely on our current expectations and projections about future events and financial trends affecting our business and our future financial performance. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions, including, among other things: general economic, political and business conditions, both in Brazil and in our market. The words “believes,” “may,” “will,” “estimates,” “continues,” “anticipates,” “intends,” “expects” and similar words are intended to identify forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligations to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements because of new information, future events or other factors. In light of these risks and uncertainties, the forward-looking events and circumstances discussed in this presentation might not occur. Our actual results could differ substantially from those anticipated in our forward-looking statements. Forward Looking StatementForward Looking Statement
  • 3.
    Air Transport IndustryReview RJ50 Market & the ERJ145 Family 70 to 120-seat Market & the E-Jets Competitive Scenario Contents
  • 4.
  • 5.
    Some relief infuel price for 2009 / 2010?Some relief in fuel price for 2009 / 2010?
  • 6.
    Estimated US GDPGrowth (as of Jun 2008)Estimated US GDP Growth (as of Jun 2008) Quarter over Quarter Growth % (Annualized Rates) 1.81.61.80.2 Prior Survey Results (May/08)
  • 7.
    Emerging EconomiesEmerging Economies WorldReal GDP Share (Measured in Yr2000 US$ PPP) Emerging economies increasing their share of global output 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1997 2007 2017 2027 Other Advanced Economies Japan United States Eurozone Other Emerging Economies India China Source: Global Insight (Jun/08)
  • 8.
    -6.7 -2.6 2.8 -2.8 -4.2 1.6 1.8 2.1 0.6 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.4 -0.3 0.20.2 0.3 0.2 -0.1-0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3-0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -4.1 -0.5 5.6 -2.3 -6.1 -0.4 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 2005 2006 2007 2008F 2008F North America Europe Asia-Pacific Middle East Latin America Africa Global Industry Net ResultsIndustry Net Results Source: IATA Economics Jun/08 (ICAO data to 2007 and IATA Forecast 2008-2009) Values in US$ Billion Global and US net results includes restructuring costs and excludes United Airlines ‘fresh-start’ accounting losses and gains Scenario 1 US$80-120 per barrel Scenario 2 US$120-140 per barrel Profitability is not expected to be achieved until 2010 or later US$Billion
  • 9.
    What can weexpect?What can we expect? • World air transport demand keeps growing despite US slowdown • More consolidation, merges and less start-ups • Capacity cuts (mainly in the US) • Fare increases & slowdown in demand • Additional quest for efficiency: cost cuts, higher LFs and higher aircraft utilization • Early retirement of older jets • Better match of aircraft capacity to a lower demand
  • 10.
  • 11.
    ERJ 145 FamilyOrder Book 4169275733ERJ 145 41 0 0 Firm Backlog 87475915Total 74074ERJ 140 1080108ERJ 135 DeliveriesOptions Firm Orders (June 30th, 2008) September, 2007
  • 12.
    Dec 1998Dec 1998 Dec1999Dec 1999 Aug 2000Aug 2000 Dec 1996Dec 1996 First DeliveryFirst Delivery May 2003May 2003Mar 2001Mar 2001 Sep 2001Sep 2001 May 2002May 2002 Feb 2005Feb 2005May 2004May 2004 1,000 ERJ Platforms Already Delivered September, 2007September, 2007
  • 13.
    0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 5-25 26-50 51-75 76-100 101-150 151-200 201-300 >300Market Density (PDEW) AnnualFlights RJ50s– Market Density Profile US Domestic (2007) Source: BACK / OD1A 2007 76-100 7% 101-150 10% 151-200 5% >200 19% 5-25 29% 26-50 19% 51-75 11% % 2007 RJ50 Flights per Market Density (PDEW Class) Almost 60% of all RJ50 flights served low density markets
  • 14.
    US Hub &Spoke – RJ50 Importance Regional Carriers Passenger Type Breakdown 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 5-25 26-50 51-75 76-100 101-150 151-200 201-300 RJ30-60 Connecting Passenger Local Passenger RJ50 is a fundamental feeder of network operations, especially in low density markets (two connecting passengers for each local passengers) Source: BACK - RJ50 operations with 1 coupon 3:1 2:1 1:1 1:1 1:1 1:2 1:2 2:1 PDEW :
  • 15.
    RJ50 – Importanceto the Air Transport SystemRJ50 – Importance to the Air Transport System Feeding system is vital for Airline´s Success Seabury Group – FAA Forecast Conference (Mar 11, 2008) Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes RJ50 Presence
  • 16.
    Source: US DOT(T100) RJ50 – Relevance to the US Transport SystemRJ50 – Relevance to the US Transport System 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2000 2007 PaxEnplanements(Millions) Other Aircraft RJ50 RJ50s carried more than 90 mi passengers (13% of all US domestic) 2/3 of all RJ50 passengers (~61 millions) are connecting CAGR: 25.1% CAGR: 0.1% 3% 13%RJ50 - % of all US domestic enplanements US Domestic (2007)
  • 17.
    0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2000 2008E 2000 2008E 2000 2008E 2000 2008E 2000 2008E 2000 2008E ASMOffered 30-60 61-90 US Regionals:Trend to higher capacity aircraft Capacity Share by Jet Capacity Segment Source: BACK (not considered AVRO operation in 2000 for Northwest) Backlog: NW: 12 E175 15 CRJ900 DL: 17 CRJ900 UA: 14 CRJ700 SKYW: 18 CRJ700 4 CRJ900 REP: 17 E175 Source: EMB (as of Jun 2008) BBD (as of Apr 2008) Skywest Airlines regional operations: CO, DL and UA Republic Airways regional operations: AA, CO, DL, UA and US
  • 18.
    $0,00 $0,04 $0,08 $0,12 $0,16 0 200 400600 800 1000 1200 Distance (sm) Aircraft Direct Operating Cost $0,00 $0,04 $0,08 $0,12 $0,16 Jet 50 Jet 158 Most of the operating cost difference between small jets and big jets is due to the distance they fly, not the airplane size. -42% CASM($) -12% As reported. Adjusted for distance (409 sm). Source: US form 41 - fiscal year ending 3Q07 Airplane variable + ownership cost
  • 19.
    $0,00 $0,04 $0,08 $0,12 $0,16 Jet 50 Jet158 Source: US form 41 - fiscal year ending 3Q07 Airplane variable + ownership cost Fuel Price Impact on Aircraft Cost Rising fuel prices affect big airplanes as much as small airplanes. CASM($) 19% 21% Fuel at $2 Fuel at $3
  • 20.
    Source: Airlines (Jun/18/08)(*) United Airlines report "North America" figures, what includes transborder flights to Canada. 10 CRJ-200 17 B737-300 ; 4 B757; 4 A3203 to 5% ▲ 4 to 6% ▲ -5 to -3% ▼ Regional System 23 EMB-120 “Some of United’s 737 routes will be down-gauged to 50- to 70-seaters, which are operated by regional affiliates under the United Express banner”. (Jake Brace, UAL CFO - Merrill Lynch Conf. Jun 18, 2008) 64 B737-300 ; 30 B737-500 ; 6 B747 1.5 to 2.5% ▲ 0 to 1% ▲ -8 to -7% ▼ (*) Regional Mainline -2% ▼ -13% ▼ -7% ▼ 50 to 55% ▲ -9.5 to -8.5% ▼ -13% ▼ 3.6% ▲ -4.5% ▼ -6.5 to -5.5% ▼ -6 to -5% ▼ Domestic 2008 ASM Forecast (compared to 2007) 15 to 17% ▲ 4.7% ▲ 1 to 2% ▲ International Adjustments to the fleet, will be made available at a later date. (AC Press Release - Jun 17, 2008) Domestic Transborder International Regional growth: introduction of 76-seater 26 DC-9-30 ; 7 DC-9-40/50; 4 A319 ; 4 A320 ; 6 B757 Regional (4Q08) System (4Q08) 12 ATR-72 ; 60-70 Regional Jets 15 MD-80 ; 3 B757 ; 2 B767-300 System (1H08) 3 Beech 1900 ; 24 CRJ-200 ; 30 ERJ135; 10 ERJ145 47 B737-300 ; 20 B737-500 Regional Mainline 35 to 40 Regional Jets ; 26 Saab 340 55 MD-80 ; 3 A300 Regional Mainline 2008-2012Airline Aircraft Removal Plan U.S. Capacity Reduction Plan • 184 RJ50s to be removed by the end of 2012 • RJ50s are essential to feed/support international expansion
  • 21.
    0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 TP J30-60 J61-90 J91-120 NB WB U.S. Airlines CapacityReductions for 2008U.S. Airlines Capacity Reductions for 2008 • Forecasted Change in ASM Network Carriers -20 bln ASM (-2.7%) Regional Carriers +3 bln ASM (+3.3%) mainly from backlog in J70/J80 Largest Fleet Reduction J140 Segment (-118 units) 2007 2008E Source: BACK, Airlines and Embraer ASM (billion) 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 TP J30-60 J61-90 J91-120 NB WB Fleet in Service – Number of Aircraft -1%-2%-33%25%-8%-8% FIS08E vs. FIS07 Backlog Removed -7-91-5283-119-41 14414102020 -8-135-66-19-119-61 Number of aircraft
  • 22.
    Mexico - RJ50EvolutionMexico - RJ50 Evolution • 2004 2007 405 nm405 nmAv. Stage Length 1818Markets 55# Aircraft ERJ145RJ50 369 nm362 nmAv. Stage Length 78106Markets 2744# Aircraft ERJ145RJ50 Source: BACK (Dec/07), RJ50 includes ERJ145 and CRJ100/200/440
  • 23.
    RJ50 Market Opportunities– CIS Yakovlev Yak-40 30-seat jet Aircraft in service Scheduled Airlines: 176 Non-Scheduled Airlines: 110 Average age: 33 years 458 aircraft requiring replacement Replacement already started: Dniproavia’s ERJ145 Tupolev Tu-134 70-seat jet Aircraft in service Scheduled Airlines: 135 Non-Scheduled Airlines: 37 Average age: 30 years Source: BACK (Mar/08 – CIS includes Russia)
  • 24.
    20062003 Source: CAAC RJ50 Evolutionin China China´´´´s RJ aviation is growing at slower pace but has huge potential 196 Markets - 45 A/C 223 Markets - 61 A/C 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% USA Europe China 30-120 Seats 120-210 Seats unbalanced jet fleet 11% 33% 42% % of Fleet
  • 25.
    RJ50 Market Trends •RJ50 feeder is fundamental to support US hub and spoke system • High fuel prices forcing airlines to revise RJ50 short-haul and long/thin operations • Regionals trend towards high capacity aircraft (75 seater) • Potential US removal of up to 250 RJ50 units in five years • China will absorb additional new units to achieve a better capacity balance in its fleet • Secondary markets will keep expanding – used RJ50s moving to CIS, Mexico, Africa and South America
  • 26.
    70 to 12070to 120--seatseat Market & the EMarket & the E--JetsJets
  • 27.
    E-Jets Family OrderBook 75217796EMBRAER 195 437 270 46 46 Firm Backlog 410827847Total 161467431EMBRAER 190 88173134EMBRAER 175 140110186EMBRAER 170 DeliveriesOptions Firm Orders (June 30th, 2008)
  • 28.
    Source: BACK, Embraer E-JetsDeployment - North AmericaE-Jets Deployment - North America 27% 51% 8% 14% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Natural Growth Right-sizing Direct Replacement New Markets E-Jets Jun/08 17 E175 76 E170 37 E175 28 E19019 E190 12 E17524 E175 15 E175 45 E190 126252 69 E19036 E190 BacklogDeliveries
  • 29.
    E-Jets Deployment -Europe/CIS Source: BACK, Embraer 42% 43% 7% 8% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Natural Growth Right-sizing Direct Replacement New Markets 1 E190 9 E170 5 E190 6 E190 1 E1951 E195 10 E190 10 E195 5 E1903 E190 5 E1951 E195 30 E190 2 E19512 E195 5 E190 10 E170 8 E190 6 E170 E-Jets Jun/08 9565 12 E175 10 E170 6 E175 2 E170 BacklogDeliveries
  • 30.
    8% 78% 15% 0%20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Natural Growth Right-sizing New Markets E-Jets Deployment - Middle East & Africa Source: BACK, Embraer 8 E1902 E195 7 E170 3 E190 2 E170 1 E1702 E170 6 E1706 E170 15 E170 E-Jets Jun/08 2733 1 E170 5 E195 2 E175 BacklogDeliveries
  • 31.
    5% 20% 75% 0%20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Right-sizing Direct Replacement New Markets E-Jets Deployment - Asia Pacific & ChinaE-Jets Deployment - Asia Pacific & China Source: BACK, Embraer 7 E170 ETA Star Aviation 2 E170 10 E170 1 E170 1 E190 1 E170 1 E190 2 E170 3 E175 1 E190 1 E195 6 E190 47 E1903 E190 E-Jets Jun/08 8426 2 E170 13 E190 4 E170 5 E190 BacklogDeliveries
  • 32.
    E-Jets Deployment -Latin AmericaE-Jets Deployment - Latin America 21% 61% 18% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Natural Growth Right-sizing New Markets Source: BACK, Embraer 5 E175 20 E195 2 E170 3 E190 36 E195 4 E190 11 E190 2 E170 2 E19013 E190 4 E1908 E190 E-Jets Jun/08 7834 1 E175 1 E190 BacklogDeliveries
  • 33.
    27% 42% 26% 8% 7% 6% 51% 42% 53% 14% 8% 15% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% NorthAmerica Europe World %ofTotalE-JetsMarkets Natural Growth Direct Replacement Right-sizing New Markets E-Jets Deployment – Summary Source: BACK, Embraer 53% of E-Jets operations: right-sizing of narrowbody services
  • 34.
    Narrow-body Complement -North America 6:00 8:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 2008 436 2007 318 Charlotte – Toronto Seats* Source: BACK (4Q06) *4th Wednesday of January 2007 1,033 A319 2008 992 Toronto - Halifax E190A320 A320 A320 A320 A320 A320 A319 E190 A320 A319 A319 A319 E190 E190 737-300 737-300 CRJ-200 E170 737-300 E175 737-400
  • 35.
    Air Canada –Merrill Lynch Global Transportation Conference (Jun/2007) COPY Domestic International
  • 36.
    "What could bebetter if you're looking at a high fuel cost, increasing passenger ticket price environment, which will logically lead to decreased demand, than to have the most efficient, comfortable aircraft in the 100-seat category, which is the Embraer 190?" Mr. Robert Milton told reporters after the ACE annual meeting. The Globe and Mail and Financial Post Robert Milton (AC) statement on June 30th, 2008Robert Milton (AC) statement on June 30th, 2008
  • 37.
    Helsinki - GothenburgHelsinki - Dusseldorf Helsinki - Warsaw 2006 2007 2008 2006 2007 2008 2006 2007 2008 Seats Oferred 126 202 304 126 226 278 76 202 252 6:00 E170 E170 8:00 A319 E170 E170 E170 A319 10:00 A319 12:00 E170 E170 14:00 16:00 E170 A320 A319 E170 E190 18:00 A319 E170 E170 20:00 E170 22:00 Midnight E170/190 at FinnairE170/190 at Finnair E-Jets Right-sizing at Finnair: 76% of E170/190 markets 18 markets complementing A319/320s ; 11 markets replacing A319/320s/ MD-80s Source: BACK (Jan/08) *4th Wednesday of January
  • 38.
    E170 at EgyptairE170at Egyptair Cairo - Sharm El Sheikh Cairo - Luxor Cairo - Hurghada 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007 Seats Oferred 756 707 432 780 352 583 6:00 A320 B737-500 A320 A320 A320 A321 B737-500 B737-500 B737-500 8:00 A320 A320 E170 E170 A340 E170 10:00 B737-500 12:00 E170 E170 E170 14:00 B737-500 16:00 E170 E170 18:00 E170 20:00 E170 E170 22:00 A320 E170 A320 Midnight B737-500 B737-500 A321 E-Jets Right-sizing at Egyptair: 52% of E170 routes 2 markets complementing A320/321 ; 4 markets replacing A320/321 Source: BACK (Jan/08) *4th Wednesday of January
  • 39.
    E-Jets Interchanged withNarrowbodiesE-Jets Interchanged with Narrowbodies E-Jets Narrowbodies Source: BACK Denver - Montreal 1,400 nm Spring Summer Fall Winter Spring Summer Fall Winter Apr/06 E-Jets provide year-round network coverage, optimizing fleet capacity to seasonal market demand New York City - Portland (JFK-PWM) 274 sm Spring Summer Fall Winter Spring Summer Fall Winter Apr/06
  • 40.
    Source: BACK (Jan/08) Efficiencyand flexibility also for long haul domestic/transborder markets Toronto - Seattle 1,783 nm; 4:57 (1 Daily) Boston - Austin 1,470 nm; 4:17 (1 Daily) Chicago - Edmonton 1,231 nm; 3:39 (2 Daily) Philadelphia - Houston 1,150 nm; 3:41 (4 Daily) Minneapolis - Vancouver 1,243 nm; 3:44 (1 Daily) Denver - Los Cabos 1,040 nm; 3:06 (1 Daily) Atlanta - Queretaro 1,154 nm; 3:38 (1/2 Daily) E-Jets Deployment in Long Haul MarketsE-Jets Deployment in Long Haul Markets
  • 41.
    Fuel & MaintenanceCost Savings vs. Older JetsFuel & Maintenance Cost Savings vs. Older Jets $0 $500 $1.000 $1.500 $2.000 $2.500 $3.000 $3.500 $4.000 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Additional Fuel Burn (%) vs. E170 AdditionalAnnualCost(US$- thousands)Vs.E170 E175 F70 BAe 146-100 BAe 146-200 AVRO RJ-85 DC-9-10 500 nm Sector, Full Pax, Network Environment (3,200 annual BH), Jet Fuel Price $3.00/gallon E170/175 can offer up to US$ 2.2 million yearly fuel savings and up to US$ 1.3 million maintenance cost savings
  • 42.
    500 nm Sector,Full Pax, Network Environment (3,200 annual BH), Jet Fuel Price $3.00/gallon $0 $500 $1.000 $1.500 $2.000 $2.500 $3.000 $3.500 $4.000 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Additional Fuel Burn (%) vs. E190 AdditionalAnnualCost(US$- thousands)Vs.E190 E195 717 F100 737-500 737-300 DC-9-30 MD-87 Fuel & Maintenance Cost Savings vs. Older Jets E190/195 can offer up to US$ 2.7 million yearly fuel savings and up to US$ 1.2 million maintenance cost savings
  • 43.
    26% of 61-120fleet (666 acft) with more than 20 years 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 0-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 31-35 >35 Age (Years) NumberofAircraft Source: BACK (Dec/07) World Fleet Age Profile (61-120 seats): 2,582 jets / 14 years average age 142,582World 929China 19215Asia Pacific 1379Middle East 22143Africa 24272Russia & CIS 11655Europe 22305Latin America 8884North America Avg. Age # Acft.Region Nearly 700 aircraft (26% of fleet) need replacement in the coming years. Retirement cycle may be antecipated due to fuel costs and environment. Market Opportunities - ReplacementMarket Opportunities - Replacement
  • 44.
    1 2 34 9 14 19 29 45 50 Customers/ Operators 60 110 112 118 245 343 440 764 847 619 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jun/ 08 AccumulatedFirmOrders Source: Embraer Deliveries E-Jets Customer Base EvolutionE-Jets Customer Base Evolution ETA Star Aviation
  • 45.
    E-Jets Worldwide Distribution Growingand diversified customer-base across five continents. Increased presence in emerging markets with established carriers. 14% 19% 47% 13% 7% Asia Pacific / China Middle East / Africa Europe/CIS Latin America North America 21% 26% 19% 17% 17% Customers Firm Orders Source: Embraer (Jun/08)
  • 46.
    E-Jets - Efficiencyto all Business Models Source: Embraer (Jun/08 ; Sirte Oil, GECAS and Jetscape not presented) Regional Network Low Cost Charter ETA Star Aviation
  • 47.
    4% 19% 15% 34% 28% Embraer Worldwide BacklogDistribution Increased presence in emerging markets. Emerging Countries North America Western Europe Latin America ROW Backlog (437 aircraft) Source: Embraer (Jun/08) Emerging Coutries: China, India, Brazil, Emerging Europe (Central Europe & the Balkans + CIS); Latin America does not include Brazil
  • 48.
  • 49.
    Source: BACK –OAG (4Q07) 45% 12% 43% 27% 13% 60% Narrowbody Regional Jet Monopoly Large CRJs 171 Markets E-Jets 93 Markets E-Jets vs. Large CRJs Competitive ProfileE-Jets vs. Large CRJs Competitive Profile E-Jets are clearly being used by airlines to compete against narrowbody aircraft; CRJs are being more used in monopoly routes.
  • 50.
    Backlog Evolution ComparisonBacklogEvolution Comparison Source: Embraer, Bombardier, ACAS E-Jets have a strong competitive position price premium 245 297 322 410 430 437 111 105 84 76 165 175 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jun/08 Backlog-NumberofAircraft E-Jets Backlog CRJ 700/900/1000 Backlog
  • 51.
    T h ei n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t Competition: E-Jets vs. New players China and countries with Chinese influence. FB: Higher COC: Higher DOC: ? Product: Conventional Risk: Moderate Supp.: from scratch ARJ21 x E175 Product: New Concept Risk: High Supp.: from scratch Product: Conventional Risk: Moderate Supp.: from scratch Overview Eastern Europe, maybe also Western Europe (political reasons). FB: Similar COC: Similar DOC: Lower SSJ 95 x E190 Initially to be proved in Japan/ Asia Pacific. FB: Lower COC: Similar DOC: ? MRJ 90 x E175 Fuel/ COC/ DOC vs. E-Jets Potential MarketsAircraft
  • 52.
    Embraer´s views onCSeries Value PropositionsEmbraer´s views on CSeries Value Propositions • The most significant propositions of the CSeries are: • Lower Engine SFC • Lower External Noise • Estimated impacts on aircraft efficiency: • OEW: 5.5 tons heavier than E195 (vs. C110) • Wet Area: 11.7% larger than E195 • Other offsets may come from new technologies risks: • New platform design and full FBW lacking strong experience • High composite level on high cycle aircraft • New engine with new technology • Most part of the SFC benefit is cancelled by the “family” requirements: • Optimization point is on C130 (C110 with same engine / structure) • Longer range (C110 capability exceeds 3,000 nm) • Accomodation for future “C150” needs
  • 53.
    Market Share -World (30-60 seats) 45 32 17 7 52 48 47 45 46 4745 47 48 47 52 52 48 5556 55 54 53 68 83 93 53 53 53 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jun/08 (%) Embraer: ERJ 145/140/135 Bombardier: CRJ100/200/440
  • 54.
    Market Share -World (61-120 seats) 2 32 5 2 38 23 2122 17 454646 4444 40 32 36 39 38 44 42 33 34 25 5 7911 100 100 99 60 28 17 16 16 4 4 12 16 2129 30 4 6 98 4 7 2 5 42 2 10 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jun/08 (%) Embraer: 170/175/190/195 Bombardier: CRJ700/900/1000 Airbus: A318 Boeing: B737-600 AVIC I: ARJ-21 Sukhoi: Superjet 100 Antonov: An-148 Mitsubishi: MRJ90
  • 55.
    Market Share -World (30-120 seats) 59 52 47 1 2 45 4242 44 38 34 24 11 5 464747 45 45 43 52 44 48 50505150 44 51 44 233 3 37 38 23 14 8 4 4 4 2 2 345 8 8 2 23 2 22 4 1 21 1 10 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jun/08 (%) Embraer: ERJ 145/140/135 ; Embraer 170/175/190/195 Bombardier: CRJ100/200/440/700/900/1000 Airbus: A318 Boeing: B737-600 AVIC I: ARJ-21 Sukhoi: Superjet 100 Antonov: An-148 Mitsubishi: MRJ90
  • 56.
    # US Parked Acft byEquip (2001-2000) 17DC-10-30 19737-700 22FOKKER 100 23737-300 25MD-82 29DC-9-30 105737-200 106727-200 During slowdown periods, smaller aircraft help airlines keeping market presence and are more part of the solution than of the problem.
  • 57.
    E-Jets around theworld: 48 Airlines / 34 Countries E-Jets around the world: 48 Airlines / 34 Countries Star * Thank You The information contained herein is the property of Embraer S.A. and shall not be copied or used without Embraer’s written consent.