Airbus presentation global market forecast_2015-2034

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Presented by: JOHN LEAHY
Chief Operating Officer Customers
Global Market
Forecast
2015-2034

Global Market Forecast 2015: Highlights
Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats)
Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)
Source: Airbus GMF2015
GMF 2015 key numbers and 20-year change
World Fleet Forecast 2014 2034 % change
2014-2034
RPK (trillions) 6.2 15.2 145%
Passenger Aircraft Fleet 17,354 35,749 106%
New passenger aircraft
deliveries 31,781
Dedicated Freighters 1,633 2,687 65%
New freighter aircraft
deliveries 804
Total New Aircraft Deliveries 32,585
New aircraft deliveries
-
+1,227 aircraft
GMF 2015 vs. GMF 2014

20-year demand for 32,600 new passenger and freight aircraft
Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats)
Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)
Market Value of
-
$4.9
trillion
22,927 single-aisle aircraft
8,108 twin-aisle aircraft
1,550 very large aircraft
32,585 new aircraft
20-year new deliveries of passenger and freighter aircraft

Single-aisle: 70% of units; Wide-bodies: 55% of value
Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) and
jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)
Source: Airbus GMF May 2015
New Deliveries
-
32,600
GMF 2015 -2034
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
20,000
24,000
Single-aisle Twin-aisle Very Large Aircraft
1,600
8,100
22,900
70% 25% 5%% units
45% 43% 12%% value
20-year new deliveries of passenger and freighter aircraft

-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
World real GDP
World passenger traffic (ASKs)
Passenger traffic is outperforming GDP growth
% (year-over-year)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
World real GDP and passenger traffic
Source: IHS Economics, OAG, Airbus GMF2015
+5.8%
May 2015
Passenger Traffic
2015

A two-speed economic world
* 54 emerging economies
** 32 advanced economies
Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus GMF2015
Comparison of year-over-year GDP growth
Emerging
economies*
Real GDP growth (%) History Forecast
Emerging
economies will
continue to
lead the pack
Advanced
economies**
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

Air transport growth is highest in expanding regions
China
India
Middle East
Asia
Africa
CIS
Latin America
Eastern Europe
6.3
billion
people
2014
Western Europe
North America
Japan
Yearly RPK growth
2015 - 2034
+5.8 %
+3.8 %
1
billion
people
2014
Advanced
Emerging/
Developing

8,600
55%
Middle Class to grow, doubling in emerging countries…
World Population
% of world population
8,000
46%
7,200
37%
6,400
28%
Source: Oxford Economics, Airbus GMF2015 * Households with yearly income between $20,000 and $150,000 at PPP in constant 2014 prices
425 444 471 480
247 259 263 264
1,120
2,001
2,936
3,977
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2004 2014 2024 2034
History Forecast
2,703
1,792
3,671
4,721
Europe
North America
Emerging countries
Middle Class*, millions of people

Private consumption to become important growth driver in emerging markets
Source: IHS Economics, Airbus
GMF2015
Emerging
markets to
represent
-
43% of the
world private
consumption by
2034, up from
31% today
23%
31%
37%
43%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2004 2014 2024 2034
Share of total world private consumption (%)
Advanced
Economies
Emerging
Economies

0.00
0.01
0.10
1.00
10.00
100.00
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Europeans and North American are the most willing to fly…
2014 real GDP per capita
(2010 $US thousands at Purchasing Power Parity)
Propensity to
travel
-
25%
of the population of
the emerging
countries took a
trip a year in
2014
Sources: Sabre, IHS Economics, Airbus
GMF2015
India
0.07 trips per capita
PRC
North America
1.63 trips per capitaEurope
2014 trips per capita

0.00
0.01
0.10
1.00
10.00
100.00
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
…but by 2034, PRC will reach current European levels
2014 real GDP per capita
(2010 $US thousands at Purchasing Power Parity)
Propensity to
travel
-
74%
of the population of
the emerging
countries will take
a trip a year in
2034
India
PRC
North America
Europe
2034 trips per capita
Sources: Sabre, IHS Economics, Airbus
GMF2015

Air travel has proven to be resilient to external shocks
Source: ICAO, Airbus
World traffic
-
85%
growth since 9/11
World annual traffic (RPKs - trillions)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014
85%
Oil Crisis Oil Crisis Gulf Crisis
Asian
Crisis
9/11 SARS
Financial
Crisis

0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034
Air traffic will double in the next 15 years
Source: ICAO, Airbus GMF2015
World annual RPK* (trillion)
Airbus GMF 2015ICAO total traffic
2014-2034
4.6%
x2

Asia-Pacific to lead in world traffic by 2034
RPK traffic by airline domicile (billions)
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
Asia-Pacific
Europe
North America
Middle East
Latin America
CIS
Africa
29%
25%
25%
9%
5%
4%
3%
5.7%
3.6%
2.5%
6.7%
5.2%
4.9%
5.3%
% of 2014
world RPK
20-year
growth
36%
21%
17%
13%
6%
4%
3%
% of 2034
world RPK
2014 traffic 2015-2034 traffic
20-year
world annual
traffic growth
4.6%

Domestic PRC will be the largest O&D traffic flow
Source: Airbus GMF2015- 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800
Asia Advanced - Asia Emerging
Sub Sahara Africa - Western Europe
Middle East - USA
Australia & New Zealand - Western Europe
Central Europe - Western Europe
Indian Subcontinent - USA
Western Europe - PRC
Domestic Brazil
South America - USA
Asia Emerging - Western Europe
Western Europe - South America
PRC - USA
Indian Subcontinent - Middle East
Domestic India
Western Europe - Middle East
Domestic Asia Emerging
Western Europe - USA
Intra Western Europe
Domestic USA
Domestic PRC
2014
2034
Asia Pacific
leading growth
-
50%
of the top twenty
traffic flows will
involve Asia Pacific
Annual O&D traffic per flow (billion RPK)
x 3.1
x 2.5
x 4.1
x 2.4
x 2.5
x 3.8
x 3.0
x 2.9
x 2.8
x 2.4
x 2.2
x 4.1
x 3.4
x 5.8
x 2.4
x 3.7
x 1.7
x 1.7
x 1.4
x 3.8

More productive seats…
Source: OAG, Ascend, ICAO, Airbus GMF2015
0
50
100
150
200
250
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Avg. number of yearly offered seats per aircraft (000)
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
World passenger load factors (%)
Load factors
+17
percentage
points
20142014
Yearly offered seats per aircraft
+46%

Less fuel burn, therefore less emissions…
Source: ICAO, IATA, Airbus GMF2015
Fuel consumption
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Kilograms per 100 RPKs (avg.)
-33%

0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Short to medium term forecasts have been revised down
Source: IHS Energy, Oxford Economics
Oil prices
-
Oil price down but
trend uncertain
Short-term good for
airline profitability
Medium-term boost
for global GDP
IHS Energy
ForecastHistory
Brent oil price (US$ per bbl. in nominal 2015)

70% of traffic growth until 2034 will be coming from existing network
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
2014 2034
Monthly Trillion RPK Growth from
new routes
Growth from
existing network

47 Aviation Mega-Cities in 2014
• >50 000 daily long-haul passengers
2014 Aviation Mega-Cities
47
Aviation
Mega-cities
0.9M
Daily Passengers:
long-haul traffic to/
from/via Mega-
Cities
90%+
of long-haul traffic
on routes
to/from/via
47 cities
22%
of World
GDP
in 2014
Source: McKinsey, UNPD, Airbus GMF2015

… and 91 Mega-Cities by 2034
91
Aviation
Mega-cities
2.3M
Daily Passengers:
Long-Haul traffic
to/ from/via Mega-
Cities
95%+
of long-haul traffic
on routes
to/from/via
91 cities
35%
of World
GDP
in 2034
Source: McKinsey, UNPD, Airbus GMF2015

These airports are already largely congested
Source: IATA WSG database, Airbus GMF
*Aviation Mega-Cities International
Airports
 IATA WSG level 1: airport
infrastructure is adequate
IATA WSG level 2: airports with
potential for congestion
IATA WSG level 3: airports
where conditions make it
impossible to meet demand
39 out of the
47 Aviation
Mega Cities are
schedule-
constrained
today

The bigger the city, the wealthier the population
GDP per capita ratio between Aviation Mega-Cities and regional average
Source: Oxford Economics, UNPD, IHS
Global Insight, Airbus GMF2015
47
Aviation
Mega-cities
+25%
North America
Europe
+60%
CIS
+300%
Latin America
+90%
Africa
+320%
Middle East
+160%
Asia Pacific
+290%

Routes between Aviation Mega-cities have more premium passengers
14%
10%
8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Aviation Mega-City to Aviation
Mega-City
Aviation Mega-City <>
Secondary City
Secondary City to Secondary
City
Cities with more than 10,000 daily passengers, Long-haul, flight
distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic
Source: Sabre (September 2014 data),
Airbus GMF2015
Percentage of
premium
between AMC
2014
-
14%
compared to 11%
average
international long-
haul
Percentage of premium passengers on routes types

Stay in service
Replacement
Growth
32,600
New
aircraft
Demand for some 32,600 new passenger and freighter aircraft
Source: Airbus
Note: Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats,
Freighter aircraft ≥10 tonnes
19,000
Fleet in service evolution: 2015-2034
38,500
5,900
13,100
19,500
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Beginning 2015 2034

Summary
• Strong and resilient passenger traffic growth
• Oil price down but trend uncertain
o Short-term good for airline profitability
o Medium-term boost for global GDP
• Demand for 32,600 new aircraft by 2034 – ~31,800 passenger aircraft and 800 freighters
• 13,100 passenger aircraft needed for replacement, largely single-aisle
• Single-aisle represent 70% of demand in units, but wide-bodies represent 55% of value
• VLA demand largely concentrated on Aviation Mega-cities
but network efficiencies will drive proliferation of new VLA destinations

© AIRBUS (Airbus S.A.S., Airbus Operations S.A.S., Airbus Operations GmbH, Airbus Operations LDT, Airbus Opeartions SL, Airbus China LTD, Airbus (Tianjin) Final Assembly Company LTD, Airbus (Tianjin) Delivery Centre LTD). All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary
document. This document and all information contained herein is the sole property of AIRBUS. No intellectual property rights are granted by the delivery of this document or the disclosure of its content. This document shall not be reproduced or disclosed to a third party without the
express written consent of AIRBUS S.A.S. This document and its content shall not be used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied. The statements made herein do not constitute an offer. They are based on the mentioned assumptions and are expressed in good faith.
Where the supporting grounds for these statements are not shown, AIRBUS S.A.S. will be pleased to explain the basis thereof. AIRBUS, its logo, A300, A310, A318, A319, A320, A321, A330, A340, A350, A380, A400M are registered trademarks.
© AIRBUS (Airbus S.A.S., Airbus Operations S.A.S., Airbus Operations GmbH, Airbus Operations LDT, Airbus Opeartions SL, Airbus China LTD, Airbus (Tianjin) Final Assembly Company LTD, Airbus (Tianjin) Delivery Centre LTD). All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary
document. This document and all information contained herein is the sole property of AIRBUS. No intellectual property rights are granted by the delivery of this document or the disclosure of its content. This document shall not be reproduced or disclosed to a third party without the
express written consent of AIRBUS S.A.S. This document and its content shall not be used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied. The statements made herein do not constitute an offer. They are based on the mentioned assumptions and are expressed in good faith.
Where the supporting grounds for these statements are not shown, AIRBUS S.A.S. will be pleased to explain the basis thereof. AIRBUS, its logo, A300, A310, A318, A319, A320, A321, A330, A340, A350, A380, A400M are registered trademarks.

Airbus presentation global market forecast_2015-2034

More Related Content

What's hot

Similar to Airbus presentation global market forecast_2015-2034

Recently uploaded

Airbus presentation global market forecast_2015-2034