2. 2 3
INTRODUCTION
The regional aviation market has evolved rapidly
overrecentdecades,bothfromageographicaland
technological point of view and from a business
model perspective.
It is not just about linking the megacities of the
world, but also about revealing the potential of
secondary and tertiary airports. Turboprops in
particular have a key role to play in exploring
and developing new routes, thus promoting local
community development.
The regional market remains one of the most
promising sectors in the commercial aviation
market. We have taken a new approach in our
forecasting methodology to best reflect the trends
and, more importantly, to develop a new vision of
regional networks.
“Anything that one man can imagine,
another man can make real.” - Jules Verne
3. 5
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY............................................................ P.06
REGIONAL TRAVEL TRENDS................................................... P.14
ENVISIONING TOMORROW’S LANDSCAPE........................ P.20
FOCUS ON REGIONS............................................................... P.26
AFRICA & MIDDLE EAST........................................................... P.28
ASIA PACIFIC.............................................................................. P.30
CHINA......................................................................................... P.32
EUROPE & CIS............................................................................ P.34
LATIN AMERICA & CARIBBEAN............................................... P.36
NORTH AMERICA...................................................................... P.38
FREIGHTER DEMAND............................................................. P.40
SAFE HARBOUR STATEMENT................................................ P.42
TABLE OF CONTENTS
4 5
Assumptions
The following assumptions and definitions apply unless otherwise specified:
• ASK : Available Seat Kilometer – seats multiplied by distance.
• Mature markets: North America, Western Europe, Japan, South
Korea, Australia, Singapore, Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong, New Zealand,
South Africa.
• Turboprop in-service fleet are considered in the range of 20-80
seats in standard configuration. Those include aircraft currently in-
production and launched programs.
• Network range up to 900 NM ~ 1,700 km ~1,000 mi.
• Route size considered: up to 300 daily seats each way per carrier.
• Traffic allocation to all types of existing aircraft categories from 20 to
200 seats, jet and turboprop technologies.
5. 8 9
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036
ACTUAL FORECAST
+3.9%TRAFFIC
AVERAGE ANNUAL TRAFFIC GROWTH
Executive Summary
TRAFFIC GROWTH
+3.0%GDP
+3.9%
DELIVERIES
INSERVICE
GROWTH
REPLACEMENT
STAYIN
SERVICE
+86%
FLEET IN SERVICE
3,900
2016 2035
TURBOPROP DEMAND
Executive Summary
TURBOPROP Fleet Evolution and deliveries
In-service passenger fleet
2,800
2,100
1,800
65%
35%1,000
1,100
Fleetgrowthisenvisionedtoaccountfor65%of turbopropdeliveries
inthenext20years.
Half of this growth is driven by the creation of new routes as part of
airlinesnetworkdevelopmentstrategy.
The other half relates to the expanded usage of the turboprop
technologyinpre-existingmarkets.
6. 10 11
+3,000 POTENTIAL NEW
ROUTES CREATED
+3.2% PER YEAR
growth from route creatION
300
400
800
600
400
500
FOCUS ON ROUTE CREATION
Executive Summary
2016-2035 POTENTIAL NEW routes
By region
Executive Summary
GROWTH conTRIBUTORS
50%
TURBOPROP MARKET MECHANISMS
Average annual growth by category
Totalseats
of growth will
come from
ROUTE CREATION
Route creation
Growth of existing network
Upsizing to larger capacity
2006 2015
-2.7%
+3.2%
+2.9% -2.9%
+3.5%
+3.2%
2035
7. 750
600
450
400
300
300
AFRICA & MIDDLE EASTNORTH AMERICA
LATIN AMERICA
& CARIBBEAN
EUROPE
& CIS
ASIA PACIFIC
excl. CHINA
CHINA
12 13
Executive Summary
GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION
2016-2035 TURBOPROP DELIVERIES
By region
61-80 seats
2,200
40-60 seats
600
Executive Summary
CAPACITY
2016-2035 TURBOPROP DELIVERIES
By seat category
21%
16% 11%
14%
27%
11%
The demand for 40-60 seat
turboprop is supported by
both the replacement of
20-40 seat aircraft and the
creation of new routes that will
serve challenging airports.
61-80 seat aircraft remains
the bulk of the demand.
The capability to raise
traffic through frequency
at competitive seat mile
cost is the key driver for
the continuous growth
envisioned for this segment.
9. 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036
17
Regional travel trends
EMERGING ECONOMIES
DRIVE GROWTH
Regional travel trends
MANY PEOPLE TO CONNECT
POPULATION
Early stage
Developing
Intermediate
Mature
Network development stage
Routes/M.km /M.hab2
REGIONAL TRAFFIC DEMAND
+0.6%
+4.6%
EMERGING
MATURE
The quality of regional network is essential to balance economic
growth.
There is a strong potential for the most populated countries
to enhance their regional network and link the most remote
communities.
Emerging markets’ demand has overtaken the mature markets’
capacity since 2011 in the regional sector.
The demand in emerging countries is expected to grow eight
times faster than that of mature economies.
16
NETWORK DEVELOPMENT BY COUNTRY
10. UP TO
+5%
UP TO
+6%
UP TO
+8%
+10%
FLIGHTS
REGIONAL
GDP
TOURISTS
GENERATE
MORE SOCIAL
DEVELOPMENT
MORE
EMPLOYMENT
FOREIGN DIRECT
INVESTMENT
18 19
Regional travel trends
Air connectivity is a driver
for development
2006 2015
Regional travel trends
REDUCING THE CARBON FOOTPRINT
OF REGIONAL AVIATION
EMISSIONS & TURBOPROP SHARE
CO2
/ASK - Turboprop share (ASK %)
-10%
+15%
25%
40%
The increased usage of turboprops on regional routes helps
to reduce aviation emissions.
CO2
EMISSIONS
TURBOPROP ASK
MARKET SHARE
An increase in the number of flights have a positive impact on
regional GDP, tourism and investment.
By offering a combination of greater accessibility to remote
airfields and lower operating costs than any other category of
aircraft, turboprops have proved to be fundamental enablers
for regional economic growth.
12. turboprop ACTIVITY by region
ASK by region
2035
turboprop in-service fleet evolution
Annual growth rate
+3.3%
+4.1%
+2.2%
+6.5%
+40.7%
+4.2%
11%
31%
9%
24%
13%
12%
11%
32%
1%
27%
10%
19%
AFRICA &
MIDDLE EASTNORTH AMERICA
LATIN AMERICA
& CARRIBEAN
EUROPE
& CIS
ASIA PACIFIC
excl. CHINA
CHINA
2015
22 23
Envisioning tomorrow’s landscape
GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION
Envisioning tomorrow’s landscape
in-service fleet by region
2035
2015
500
LATIN America & caribbean
220
650
NORTH America
450
420
Africa & MIDDLE EAST
230 320
CHINA
35
900
1,180
Asia PACIFIC
Europe & CIS
540
640
FLEET IN SERVICE
The turboprop market is flourishing towards South and East,
with China envisioned to lead a strong growth in the next 20
years, reshaping the current geographical distribution.
13. Envisioning tomorrow’s landscape
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
0
50%
100%
REGIONAL JETS
TURBOPROPS
2016 @ $1.5/USGal
2011 @ $3.3/USGal
2006 @ $2.3/USGal
2006
2015
2006
2015
2006
2015
2006
2015
2006
2015
0.01
0.1
1
2006 250 NM
260 NM
300 NM
2011
2016
25
PROPELLER OR FAN:
A MATTER OF DISTANCE
Regardless of the fuel price, turboprops have extended their
operational scope over jets, proving to be the preferred airline
choice for short haul operations.
Growth in regional seats per capita is correlated with country’s
wealth. As GDP per capita increases, the prospective for
regional aviation drastically improves, especially when
countries adopt regional air connectivity to accelerate
economic growth.
SHARE OF FLIGHTS
by distance (NM)
TURBOPROP operations preferred up to:
WEALTH & AIR TRANSPORT DEVELOPMENT
Envisioning tomorrow’s landscape
REGIONAL AIR TRANSPORT DEVELOPMENT
24 25
REGIONAL
SEATS/CAPITA
GDP/
CAPITA
Note: Focus on turboprops and regional jets from 40 to 80 seats in
order to avoid capacity-driven choice.
20. AVERAGE ANNUAL
FLEET GROWTH
2.2%
38 39
Aircraft delivery forecast
NORTH America
450DELIVERIES
TP50
TP75
300NEW ROUTES
240
210
5%
69%
26%
Route creation
Replacement
Growth of existing network
21. 40 41
FREIGHTER DEMAND
Freighter market
TURBOPROP FREIGHTER FLEET EVOLUTION
Conversion
INSERVICE
+35%
FLEET IN SERVICE
460
2016 2035
420
340
120
300
40
More than 400 turboprop freighters are expected to be operated by
2035.Thedemandfortheseplatformsincreaseswiththeadoptionof
e-commerce technology around the world, and the requirement of
expressservicedeliveries.
In the next 20 years, the rise in demand of cargo services will be
triggered by emerging economies. The current freighter fleet is
27yearsoldonaverageandrequirespromptreplacementindifferent
forms:cargo-paxflexiblevariantsandfullfreighterconversions.
Note: Freighter aircraft – excluding Eastern built – from 3t to 9t payload.
STAYIN
SERVICE
GROWTH
REPLACEMENT
29%
71%
22. 42 43
• The successful execution of internal
performance plans, including cost reduction
and productivity efforts;
• Product performance risks, as well as
programme development and management
risks;
• Customer, supplier and subcontractor
performance or contract negotiations,
including financing issues;
• Competition and consolidation in the
aerospace and defence industry;
• Significant collective bargaining, labour
disputes;
•The outcome of political and legal processes,
including the availability of government
financing for certain programmes and the size
of defence and space procurement budgets;
• Research and development costs in
connection with new products;
• Legal, financial and governmental risks
related to international transactions;
• Legal and investigatory proceedings and
other economic, political and technological
risks and uncertainties.
Any forward-looking statement contained in
this presentation/publication speaks as of the
date of this presentation/publication release.
ATR undertakes no obligation to publicly
revise or update any forward-looking
statements in light of new information,
SAFE HARBOUR STATEMENT
Disclaimer
This presentation includes forward-looking
statements. Words such as anticipates,
believes, estimates, expects, intends, plans,
projects, may, forecast and similar expressions
are used to identify these forward-looking
statements. Examples of forward-looking
statements include statements made about
strategy, rampup and delivery schedules,
introduction of new products and services and
market expectations, as well as statements
regarding future performance and outlook.
By their nature, forward-looking statements
involve risk and uncertainty because they
relate to future events and circumstances and
there are many factors that could cause actual
results and developments to differ materially
from those expressed or implied by these
forward-looking statements.
These factors include but are not limited to:
• Changes in general economic, political
or market conditions, including the cyclical
nature of ATR business;
• Significant disruptions in air travel (including
as a result of terrorist attacks);
• Currency exchange rate fluctuations, in
particular between the Euro and the U.S.
dollar;
