The document forecasts annual passenger numbers for Paris Airport (ORY) in 2020. It recommends using two trend models - a general straight line model and a most recent data polynomial model - to minimize data discrepancies and set an accurate annual target. The midpoint between the models' forecasts is the most convenient number, unless the gap is large, in which case the halfway point between the extremes should be used. It presents two scenarios: maintaining 0% annual growth at 32,612,581 passengers, or an optimum solution of 32,772,162 passengers. The first scenario of no growth is recommended to avoid overestimating passenger growth and misleading the final results.

1. Airport Forecasting - 2020
(Issue No. 21)
Paris Airport (ORY)
Annual Passengers Forecast:
The best way to set up annual target and minimize the data discrepancy is to address the data by two
trend models using the concept of 12 rolling months.
First – General Trend Model using the concept of Straight Line equation – defining general trend.
Second – Most Recent Data Trend Model Using a Polynomial Model – Second-degree equation.
This reflects the impact of most recent data on the path of general trend. The mid-point is the most
convenient forecast annual result at Dec 2020. So as long as the gap between two models is small, the
more accurate approaching value for setting annual target otherwise we have to select the half way
distance between two extreme targets of these two models provided that Dec 2020 > Dec 2019.
Scenario 1: Preset Annual Target = Passengers = 32,612,581 Pax.
At 0.00 % Annual Growth (recommend)
Scenario 2: Optimum Solution. = Passengers = 32,772,162 Pax.
The objective is to minimize the risk of not achieving the desired goals. Both scenarios are fairs, and
the results are good. The first scenario is fair enough to select,as it has a Zero growth, we
recommend the 1st
scenario, to avoid the high-risk passenger growth that mislead the final results.
By: Mohammed Salem Awad
Aviation Consultant
Data Source:https://www.parisaeroport.fr/en/group/finance/investor-
relations/traffic