Real Estate Price Exploitation
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The document discusses analyzing subdivision trends using graphs of recorded closing prices and square footage over time from public records. It compares the average price per square foot calculated from a regression trendline of the data to a single-point average to identify arbitrage opportunities where the averages differ significantly and will eventually converge. A resulting heat map colors subdivisions from red/black to yellow/white to indicate markets that are overheated or undervalued relative to the single-point average.
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T h e S e c u l a r a n d C y c l i c B e h a v i o r o f
‘ ‘ T r u e ’ ’ C o n s t r u c t i o n C o s t s
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A b s t r a c t Current construction cost indices typically are derived by
applying national weights to local costs for materials and labor.
In this study, construction cost indices are developed that are
based on actual contractor tenders for projects. As such, they
incorporate full variation in factor proportions, as well as factor
costs, contractor overhead, and profit. Cost indices are produced
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different MSAs using F.W. Dodge project cost data from 1967
through the first half of 2004. Standard ‘‘hedonic’’ analysis is
applied to control for variation in project scale and features to
extract the true time trends in costs for each market. The findings
indicated that real construction costs generally have fallen
slightly over the last 35 years. In addition, no correlation is found
between costs and building activity. Causal (IV) analysis implies
that the construction industry is elastically supplied to local real
estate markets, with any ‘‘excess’’ profits going to land and
developer entrepreneurship. This is consistent with the traditional
‘‘urban land economics’’ literature.
This paper develops construction cost indices based upon the actual construction
tenders for a very large number of building projects over the 1967–2004 period.
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time—generally increasing slightly less than overall economic inflation. Real
estate markets are widely thought to be mean-reverting around replacement costs
and thus to the extent that replacement costs are based mainly on the construction
(as opposed to land) component—this paper provides an answer. The second
question is to explore if there is a tendency for construction costs to rise cyclically
during periods of major building activity. If this is the case, it could suggest that
the construction industry is less than elastically supplied to local real estate
markets. Whether this is due to inelasticity in the supply of materials and labor,
or the whether contractors and construction firms are able to extract short run
2 � W h e a t o n a n d S i m o n t o n
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some doubt on the time-honored axiom of modern urban economics that any
excess returns go to land or entrepreneurship (Clemhout, 1981; and Blackley,
1999).
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Real Estate Price Exploitation
- 1. How Does Your Subdivision Trend?
- 2. Behind the Numbers Arbitrage Markets Downstream of this presentation are a series of graphs and a heat map. The values are based on recorded closings and square feet in the subdivision over time as reported in public records. The y-axis represents the slope of the trend over time, given in price per square foot. The data is biased towards the subdivision, but contains data points also pulled from the surrounding township following Quantitative Comps analysis protocol to reflect the overall economic environment of that property. Taking the calculated slope which gives an average based on the regressing trend (red dots below), we can compare the average price per square foot to a single-point value average (blue dot below). A large difference in value in price per square foot between the two averages can be exploited by real estate investment dollars, presumably since the two averages will eventually meet.
- 3. Resulting Heat Map – Arbitrage Opportunities In price per square foot ± from the single point average. Spectrum from black/red to yellow/white = from heated to undervalued market.