Highlights from the 2014 edition of the OECD's Sovereign Borrowing Outlook. This includes gross borrowing requirements, net borrowing requirements, central government marketable debt, funding strategies and instruments and distribution channels.
Find out more information at http://www.oecd.org/daf/fin/public-debt/oecdsovereignborrowingoutlook.htm
This presentation provides key findings from the 2017 edition of the OECD Sovereign Borrowing Outlook. This includes gross borrowing requirements, net borrowing requirements, central government marketable debt, funding strategies and instruments and distribution channels.
Find out more information at http://www.oecd.org/finance/oecdsovereignborrowingoutlook.htm
Will risks-derail-the-modest-recovery-oecd-interim-economic-outlook-march-2017OECD, Economics Department
Global GDP growth is projected to pick up modestly to around 3½ per cent in 2018, from just under 3% in 2016, boosted by fiscal initiatives in the major economies. The forecast is broadly unchanged since November 2016. Confidence has improved, but consumption, investment, trade and productivity are far from strong, with growth slow by past norms and higher inequality.
Presentation by Mario Solis-Garcia at the OECD Workshop on “Joint Learning for an OECD Trust Strategy” on 14 October 2013. Mr. Solis-Garcia discusses why trust matters and uses a simple economic model to see how government trust influences environment, government, households and timing.
Oecd interim-economic-outlook-2015-puzzles-and-uncertainties-paris-16-septemberOECD, Economics Department
Global growth prospects have weakened slightly and become less clear in recent months. World trade growth has stagnated and financial conditions have deteriorated. The recovery is nonetheless progressing in advanced economies, but the outlook has worsened further for many emerging market economies (EMEs).
Expansionary Fiscal Contraction? An Irish PerspectiveLatvijas Banka
Presentation by Franc Barry, Professor of International Business and Economic Development, Trinity College Dublin (Ireland) at the Bank of Latvia conference "Economic Adjustment under Sovereign Debt Crisis: Can Experience of the Baltics Be Applied to Others?"
June 2017 - The 2017 edition of the OECD Business and Finance Outlook focuses on ways to enhance “fairness”, in the sense of strengthening global governance, to ensure a level playing field in trade, investment and corporate behaviour, through the setting and better enforcement of global standards. This presentation by OECD's financial markets expert Adrian Blundell-Wignall shows key findings from the publication. Find out more here http://www.oecd.org/daf/oecd-business-and-finance-outlook-2017-9789264274891-en.htm
Finland's Economic Policy Council published their annual report in January 29, 2020. In the report, the Council evaluates the government’s fiscal policy and its employment-promoting policies. As in the previous reports, in addition to fiscal policy, the Council concentrates on fiscal sustainability and on the connections between social security and employment.
This year, one of the background reports looks at the assessment of risks of the Finnish Government Guarantee System. Professor of Economics Juha Junttila of the University of Jyväskylä, presented key finding in the report launch seminar, in Helsinki, on 29 January 2020.
For more information, including the full EPC 2019 report and all five background reports, please see: https://www.talouspolitiikanarviointineuvosto.fi/en/home/
This presentation by OECD's financial markets expert Adrian Blundell-Wignall shows the highlights from the 2016 edition of the OECD Business and Finance Outlook. http://www.oecd.org/daf/oecd-business-and-finance-outlook-2016-9789264257573-en.htm
Highlights from the 2014 edition of the OECD's Sovereign Borrowing Outlook. This includes gross borrowing requirements, net borrowing requirements, central government marketable debt, funding strategies and instruments and distribution channels.
Find out more information at http://www.oecd.org/daf/fin/public-debt/oecdsovereignborrowingoutlook.htm
This presentation provides key findings from the 2017 edition of the OECD Sovereign Borrowing Outlook. This includes gross borrowing requirements, net borrowing requirements, central government marketable debt, funding strategies and instruments and distribution channels.
Find out more information at http://www.oecd.org/finance/oecdsovereignborrowingoutlook.htm
Will risks-derail-the-modest-recovery-oecd-interim-economic-outlook-march-2017OECD, Economics Department
Global GDP growth is projected to pick up modestly to around 3½ per cent in 2018, from just under 3% in 2016, boosted by fiscal initiatives in the major economies. The forecast is broadly unchanged since November 2016. Confidence has improved, but consumption, investment, trade and productivity are far from strong, with growth slow by past norms and higher inequality.
Presentation by Mario Solis-Garcia at the OECD Workshop on “Joint Learning for an OECD Trust Strategy” on 14 October 2013. Mr. Solis-Garcia discusses why trust matters and uses a simple economic model to see how government trust influences environment, government, households and timing.
Oecd interim-economic-outlook-2015-puzzles-and-uncertainties-paris-16-septemberOECD, Economics Department
Global growth prospects have weakened slightly and become less clear in recent months. World trade growth has stagnated and financial conditions have deteriorated. The recovery is nonetheless progressing in advanced economies, but the outlook has worsened further for many emerging market economies (EMEs).
Expansionary Fiscal Contraction? An Irish PerspectiveLatvijas Banka
Presentation by Franc Barry, Professor of International Business and Economic Development, Trinity College Dublin (Ireland) at the Bank of Latvia conference "Economic Adjustment under Sovereign Debt Crisis: Can Experience of the Baltics Be Applied to Others?"
June 2017 - The 2017 edition of the OECD Business and Finance Outlook focuses on ways to enhance “fairness”, in the sense of strengthening global governance, to ensure a level playing field in trade, investment and corporate behaviour, through the setting and better enforcement of global standards. This presentation by OECD's financial markets expert Adrian Blundell-Wignall shows key findings from the publication. Find out more here http://www.oecd.org/daf/oecd-business-and-finance-outlook-2017-9789264274891-en.htm
Finland's Economic Policy Council published their annual report in January 29, 2020. In the report, the Council evaluates the government’s fiscal policy and its employment-promoting policies. As in the previous reports, in addition to fiscal policy, the Council concentrates on fiscal sustainability and on the connections between social security and employment.
This year, one of the background reports looks at the assessment of risks of the Finnish Government Guarantee System. Professor of Economics Juha Junttila of the University of Jyväskylä, presented key finding in the report launch seminar, in Helsinki, on 29 January 2020.
For more information, including the full EPC 2019 report and all five background reports, please see: https://www.talouspolitiikanarviointineuvosto.fi/en/home/
This presentation by OECD's financial markets expert Adrian Blundell-Wignall shows the highlights from the 2016 edition of the OECD Business and Finance Outlook. http://www.oecd.org/daf/oecd-business-and-finance-outlook-2016-9789264257573-en.htm
Presentation of the OECD Territorial Review of the Netherlands, The Hague, Ne...OECD Governance
Presentation of the OECD Territorial Review of the Netherlands, The Hague, Netherlands, 24nd April, 2014. Presented by Enrique Garcilazo, David Bartolini & Isabelle Chatry from the OECD's Public Governance and Territorial Development directorate. More information on this publication can be found at www.oecd.org/gov/regional-policy/territorial-review-netherlands.htm
Fiscal space and the composition of public finances - Christian Kastrop, OECDOECD Governance
This presentation was made by Christian Kastrop, OECD, at the 9th Annual Meeting of the OECD network of Parliamentary Budget Officials and Independent Fiscal Institutions held in Edinburgh, Scotland, on 6-7 April 2017.
Fiscal space and the composition of public finances - Christian Kastrop, OECDOECD Governance
This presentation was made by Christian Kastrop, OECD, at the 9th Annual Meeting of the OECD network of Parliamentary Budget Officials and Independent Fiscal Institutions held in Edinburgh, Scotland, on 6-7 April 2017.
Longer-term forecastings - David Turner, Economics Department, OECDOECD Governance
This presentation was made by David Turner, Economics Department, OECD, at the 11th Meeting of OECD PBO & IFIs held in Lisbon, Portugal, on 4-5 February 2019
This presentation provides key findings from the 2018 edition of the OECD Sovereign Borrowing Outlook. This includes gross borrowing requirements, net borrowing requirements, central government marketable debt, funding strategies and instruments and distribution channels.
Find out more information at http://www.oecd.org/finance/oecdsovereignborrowingoutlook.htm
Assessing the fiscal sustainability of health and long-term care: the EU meth...OECD Governance
This presentation was made by Christoph Schwierz, European Commission, at the 4th meeting of the Joint DELSA/GOV-SBO Network on Fiscal Sustainability of Health Systems, held in Paris on 16-17 February 2015.
This presentation provides key findings from the 2019 edition of the OECD Sovereign Borrowing Outlook. This includes gross borrowing requirements, net borrowing requirements, central government marketable debt, funding strategies and instruments and distribution channels.
Find out more at http://www.oecd.org/finance/oecd-sovereign-borrowing-outlook-23060476.htm
The global economy is expected to continue expanding at a moderate pace over the coming two years, but policymakers must ensure that instability in financial markets and underlying fragility in major economies are not allowed to derail growth, according to the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook.
Economic forecasting and budgetary space - Sebastian Barnes, OECDOECD Governance
This presentation was made by Sebastian Barnes, OECD, at the 11th Annual Meeting of Central, Eastern and South-eastern Senior Budget Officials (CESEE SBO) held in Warsaw, Poland, on 21-22 May 2015.
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesDOT TECH
The rate at which pi will be listed is practically unknown. But due to speculations surrounding it the predicted rate is tends to be from 30$ — 50$.
So if you are interested in selling your pi network coins at a high rate tho. Or you can't wait till the mainnet launch in 2026. You can easily trade your pi coins with a merchant.
A merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive quantities till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank Introduce New Co-Branded Credit Cardnickysharmasucks
The unveiling of the IndusInd Bank Poonawalla Fincorp eLITE RuPay Platinum Credit Card marks a notable milestone in the Indian financial landscape, showcasing a successful partnership between two leading institutions, Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank. This co-branded credit card not only offers users a plethora of benefits but also reflects a commitment to innovation and adaptation. With a focus on providing value-driven and customer-centric solutions, this launch represents more than just a new product—it signifies a step towards redefining the banking experience for millions. Promising convenience, rewards, and a touch of luxury in everyday financial transactions, this collaboration aims to cater to the evolving needs of customers and set new standards in the industry.
BYD SWOT Analysis and In-Depth Insights 2024.pptxmikemetalprod
Indepth analysis of the BYD 2024
BYD (Build Your Dreams) is a Chinese automaker and battery manufacturer that has snowballed over the past two decades to become a significant player in electric vehicles and global clean energy technology.
This SWOT analysis examines BYD's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats as it competes in the fast-changing automotive and energy storage industries.
Founded in 1995 and headquartered in Shenzhen, BYD started as a battery company before expanding into automobiles in the early 2000s.
Initially manufacturing gasoline-powered vehicles, BYD focused on plug-in hybrid and fully electric vehicles, leveraging its expertise in battery technology.
Today, BYD is the world’s largest electric vehicle manufacturer, delivering over 1.2 million electric cars globally. The company also produces electric buses, trucks, forklifts, and rail transit.
On the energy side, BYD is a major supplier of rechargeable batteries for cell phones, laptops, electric vehicles, and energy storage systems.
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
Key Features of USDA Loans:
Zero Down Payment: USDA loans require no down payment, making homeownership more accessible.
Competitive Interest Rates: These loans often come with lower interest rates compared to conventional loans.
Flexible Credit Requirements: USDA loans have more lenient credit score requirements, helping those with less-than-perfect credit.
Guaranteed Loan Program: The USDA guarantees a portion of the loan, reducing risk for lenders and expanding borrowing options.
Eligibility Criteria:
Location: The property must be located in a USDA-designated rural or suburban area. Many areas in California qualify.
Income Limits: Applicants must meet income guidelines, which vary by region and household size.
Primary Residence: The home must be used as the borrower's primary residence.
Application Process:
Find a USDA-Approved Lender: Not all lenders offer USDA loans, so it's essential to choose one approved by the USDA.
Pre-Qualification: Determine your eligibility and the amount you can borrow.
Property Search: Look for properties in eligible rural or suburban areas.
Loan Application: Submit your application, including financial and personal information.
Processing and Approval: The lender and USDA will review your application. If approved, you can proceed to closing.
USDA loans are an excellent option for those looking to buy a home in California's rural and suburban areas. With no down payment and flexible requirements, these loans make homeownership more attainable for many families. Explore your eligibility today and take the first step toward owning your dream home.
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
Introduction to Indian Financial System ()Avanish Goel
The financial system of a country is an important tool for economic development of the country, as it helps in creation of wealth by linking savings with investments.
It facilitates the flow of funds form the households (savers) to business firms (investors) to aid in wealth creation and development of both the parties
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchangeDOT TECH
Yes. Pi network coins can be exchanged but not on bitmart exchange. Because pi network is still in the enclosed mainnet. The only way pioneers are able to trade pi coins is by reselling the pi coins to pi verified merchants.
A verified merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell it to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
The Evolution of Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) in India: Challenges...beulahfernandes8
Role in Financial System
NBFCs are critical in bridging the financial inclusion gap.
They provide specialized financial services that cater to segments often neglected by traditional banks.
Economic Impact
NBFCs contribute significantly to India's GDP.
They support sectors like micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), housing finance, and personal loans.
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
what is the future of Pi Network currency.DOT TECH
The future of the Pi cryptocurrency is uncertain, and its success will depend on several factors. Pi is a relatively new cryptocurrency that aims to be user-friendly and accessible to a wide audience. Here are a few key considerations for its future:
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram if u want to sell PI COINS.
1. Mainnet Launch: As of my last knowledge update in January 2022, Pi was still in the testnet phase. Its success will depend on a successful transition to a mainnet, where actual transactions can take place.
2. User Adoption: Pi's success will be closely tied to user adoption. The more users who join the network and actively participate, the stronger the ecosystem can become.
3. Utility and Use Cases: For a cryptocurrency to thrive, it must offer utility and practical use cases. The Pi team has talked about various applications, including peer-to-peer transactions, smart contracts, and more. The development and implementation of these features will be essential.
4. Regulatory Environment: The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies is evolving globally. How Pi navigates and complies with regulations in various jurisdictions will significantly impact its future.
5. Technology Development: The Pi network must continue to develop and improve its technology, security, and scalability to compete with established cryptocurrencies.
6. Community Engagement: The Pi community plays a critical role in its future. Engaged users can help build trust and grow the network.
7. Monetization and Sustainability: The Pi team's monetization strategy, such as fees, partnerships, or other revenue sources, will affect its long-term sustainability.
It's essential to approach Pi or any new cryptocurrency with caution and conduct due diligence. Cryptocurrency investments involve risks, and potential rewards can be uncertain. The success and future of Pi will depend on the collective efforts of its team, community, and the broader cryptocurrency market dynamics. It's advisable to stay updated on Pi's development and follow any updates from the official Pi Network website or announcements from the team.
1. ACHIEVING PRUDENT DEBT
TARGETS AND FISCAL RULES
Catherine L. Mann
OECD Chief Economist
Aix-en-Provence
3 July 2015
http://www.oecd.org/eco/achieving-prudent-debt-targets-using-fiscal-rules.htm
2. • OECD average gross government debt increased by 36 percentage
points from 2007 to 2013 to reach 110% of GDP.
2
Rising government debt raises concerns
0
50
100
150
200
Per cent GDP
2007 2013
Source: OECD (2014), "OECD Economic Outlook No. 96", OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and
Projections (database).
3. • Three questions:
– How should a government debt target be set?
– What should be the prudent debt-to-GDP
ratio countries should target over the medium
term?
– How can fiscal frameworks be designed to
achieve prudent debt targets while providing
scope to respond to the economic cycle?
3
Designing debt targets and fiscal
frameworks
5. • Debt limits cannot be the anchor of prudent debt targets
5
Sustainability limits may look high, but
countries should steer clear of them
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
% GDP Gross debt in 2013 Debt limit (model based interest rate) Debt limit (current interest rate)
Source: Fournier and Fall (2015)
6. • The debt threshold takes into account:
• the impact of debt on growth,
• the effectiveness of fiscal policy,
• and the link between debt and the provision of public
infrastructure.
– It seems that gross debt above about 80% of GDP
has detrimental consequences.
• More precisely:
• Advanced economies debt threshold: 70-90% of GDP
• Euro area countries debt threshold: 50-70% of GDP
• Emerging economies debt threshold: 30-50% of GDP
6
Defining a debt threshold as the anchor of
prudent debt targets
7. • A stochastic debt analysis was performed.
• The cushion that is needed to stay below debt thresholds
in the case of adverse shocks was calculated.
• The prudent debt target is the median debt by 2040 such
that there is less than a 25% risk to go beyond the debt
threshold.
7
Designing prudent debt targets
8. 8
Country by country prudent debt targets
Prudent debt levels
Average annual fiscal effort (primary balance surplus) by 2040
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
GRC
IRL
SVK
FIN
PRT
SVN
NLD
ESP
DEU
BEL
FRA
ITA
AUT
JPN
CAN
ISR
POL
USA
GBR
Per cent of GDP
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
GRC
IRL
SVK
FIN
PRT
SVN
NLD
ESP
DEU
BEL
FRA
ITA
AUT
JPN
CAN
ISR
POL
USA
GBR
Per cent of GDP
9. • The role of the prudent debt target: effective in anchoring
expectations about future fiscal policy. The prudent debt target
serves as the reference point to define numerical fiscal rules.
• Fiscal rules:
– Role: Promote fiscal discipline and long-term growth (well-
being).
– Objectives: (1) Anchor fiscal policy expectations by targeting a
prudent debt level and (2) allow for macroeconomic
stabilisation.
– Challenge: The trade-off between reducing recession risks and
debt trajectory uncertainty.
9
Designing effective fiscal frameworks
10. Budgetbalance Structuralbalance Expenditurerule Revenuerule
Fiscalstabilisation - + + -
Fiscaldiscipline ++ + + -+
Side-effectsandrisks - -- - -
Benchmarking existing rules
• The adoption of a budget balance rule complemented by
an expenditure rule is promising.
• A budget balance rule ensures hitting the debt target.
• And, well-designed expenditure rules ensure the
effectiveness of a budget balance by limiting pro-
cyclicality and too dynamic spending.
11. Panel A. GDP growth (%) Panel B. Primary balance (% of GDP) Panel C. Public debt (%)
11
Comparing past behaviour and budget balance rule +
spending rule: the example of France
12. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Group 5 Group 6
Per cent
Constant primary balance Automatic stabilisers Additional stimulus
Spending rule Include interest payments Debt rule
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Group 5 Group 6
Per cent GDP
Panel B. Debt level uncertainties
Panel A. Long-term recession risks
AUS, ISR, KOR, NZL,
POL, CHE , USA
CAN, CZE ,
SVK
DNK, LUX,
SWE, GBR
AUT, BEL, FIN, FRA,
DEU, NLD, SVN
GRC, IRL, ITA,
PRT, ESP
JPN
13. The trade-off between counter-cyclicality and
hitting the debt target
Strict primary balance rule: target is constant
Rule allowing automatic stabilisers to operate
FRA
GBR
DEU
USA
JPN
ESP
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 10 20 30 40 50
Debt ratio uncertainties (% of GDP)
Long-term recession risks (%)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 10 20 30 40 50
14. • Debt thresholds for groups of countries:
• For higher-income countries, a debt threshold range of 70 to
90% of GDP.
• For euro area countries, the debt threshold is lower at 50-70%
• Emerging economies have a debt threshold at 30 to 50%
• The average prudent debt target which minimise the probability
of hitting the threshold is 15 percentage points lower than the
threshold.
• The fiscal framework should have two objectives: ensuring fiscal
discipline and permitting stabilisation policies.
• A combination of a budget balance rule and an expenditure rule
suits most countries well:
• A budget balance rule encourages hitting the debt target.
• And, well-designed expenditure rules appear decisive to
ensure the effectiveness of a budget balance rule and can
foster long-term growth.
Main messages
15. 15
Further information
Disclaimers:
The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of
such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in
the West Bank under the terms of international law.
This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the
delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.
Fall, F., D. Bloch, J.-M. Fournier and P. Hoeller (2015), “Prudent Debt Targets
and Fiscal Frameworks”, OECD Economic Policy Papers, No. 15, OECD
Publishing, Paris.
Bloch, D. and F. Fall (2015), "Government Debt Indicators: Understanding the
Data", OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1228, OECD
Publishing.
Fournier, J-M. and F. Fall (2015), "Limits to Government Debt Sustainability",
OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1229, OECD Publishing.
Fall, F. and J-M. Fournier (2015), "Macroeconomic Uncertainties, Prudent
Debt Targets and Fiscal Rules", OECD Economics Department Working
Papers, No. 1230, OECD Publishing.
Note: Debt limits depend on past fiscal behaviour, economic growth and interest rates. The model-based interest rate increases with the debt level and sharply so, before the debt limit is reached. If past fiscal behaviour prevails, there is no finite interest rate solution to calculate the model based debt limit for Greece, Ireland, Iceland, Japan, Portugal, Slovenia and Spain, and there is no stable debt level at current interest rates for Greece and Portugal.
Debt threshold is the level beyond which debt has adverse effects on economic activity
In terms of cyclical corrections, the budget balance rule compares fairly to the structural balance rule because when setting each year numerical target, the deviations due to the cycle can be taken into account. That is the need to correct the balance target due to the cycle can be incorporated ex-post.
Note: The bars are averages for the countries in the group. The “Constant primary balance” simulation is a stylised scenario in which the actual primary balance is kept constant such that the prudent debt target is reached, with no automatic stabilisers. In the scenario labelled “Automatic stabilisers”, a one percentage point negative surprise in the output gap is associated with a 0.4% of GDP temporary stimulus. In the “Additional stimulus” scenario, the government is taking discretionary measures on top of automatic stabilisers to react to the output gap. In the “Spending rule” scenario, the government lets the automatic stabilisers play during the current year only as in the baseline (rule 1); and structural spending grows by 0.5 percentage points less than potential GDP, for countries for which the structural spending level is above the pre-crisis OECD average (37%) until it reaches this average. In the “Include interest payments”, the government’s target is set in terms of the actual balance including interest payments, instead of the primary balance. In the “Debt rule” or frontloading scenario, the primary balance is increased by one twentieth of the difference between the debt level and its ceiling when debt is above this ceiling. This comes on top of the effort made otherwise. The long-term recession risk is the probability that GDP per capita growth becomes negative. The uncertainty surrounding the debt trajectory is assessed by the interquartile range of the debt level in 2040.