This presentation was made by David Turner, Economics Department, OECD, at the 11th Meeting of OECD PBO & IFIs held in Lisbon, Portugal, on 4-5 February 2019
The document is a 2014 economic survey of Portugal by the OECD that finds:
1) Fundamental reforms have helped Portugal emerge from recession, but unemployment remains high and full recovery is still a work in progress.
2) Exports are growing but productivity and competitiveness need further improvement to strengthen the recovery.
3) Public debt is declining but corporate and household debt remain too high, and poverty has increased, especially among children.
4) Further reforms are recommended in areas like services regulation, education, research and development, and the social safety net.
The document summarizes key points from the 2015 OECD Economic Survey of Mexico. It finds that GDP growth has been relatively low and poverty and inequality remain high in Mexico. The Pacto por Mexico reforms, if fully implemented, could raise productivity, living standards, and GDP growth by 1% annually by reducing informality, poverty, and inequality. Additional reforms in areas like the judiciary, labor markets, and increasing female participation could boost GDP growth by another 1%. The document recommends strengthening rule of law, reducing corruption and income inequalities, improving education equity and access to healthcare to maximize the benefits of reforms.
The document summarizes the current state of the global and Saint Lucian economies. It notes that the global economic outlook has worsened as growth has slowed in major economies like China, India, and Brazil. This slowing is expected to negatively impact Saint Lucia through lower tourism, FDI, exports, and grants. Saint Lucia's growth is projected to be below targets for 2012 due to these mounting risks. The government's fiscal position is also expected to deteriorate as the recurrent deficit exceeds targets and revenues fall short. Salaries and wages comprise the largest share of expenditures and have been steadily increasing, posing challenges. Recommendations include foregoing salary increases this period to address fiscal issues and risks to the economy.
How can public finance reforms boost economic growth and enhance income equal...OECD, Economics Department
- There are ways for governments to reform public finance structures to boost economic growth and enhance income equality through packages like increasing public investment, inheritance taxes, and property taxes while lowering taxes on low-income earners and corporate income taxes.
- Estimates show some reforms like reducing taxes on low wages can increase incomes for all income groups while shifting taxes from low to high income earners widens disparities.
- Pairing environmental tax hikes with cuts to taxes on low incomes benefits all income groups by boosting overall output.
Using fiscal levers to escape the low growth trap OECD Economic Outlook prese...OECD, Economics Department
The document discusses using fiscal policy to boost economic growth in OECD countries. It finds that fiscal space, or room for government budget deficits, has increased in most OECD nations since 2014 due to lower interest rates. It recommends countries implement temporary 0.5% of GDP fiscal initiatives for 3-4 years through measures like infrastructure spending and education funding. Such initiatives could boost short-term growth by 0.4-0.6% on average if combined with structural reforms to maximize impact. Collective action across multiple nations could further increase short-term growth gains from fiscal policy.
On 21 September 2018, Scope affirmed the US sovereign rating at AA/ Stable. What are the factors which contribute to the United States losing its AAA rating?
Taxes and transfers redistribute income across OECD countries, lowering inequality. However, the equalizing effect varies widely. While redistribution has declined for almost all OECD countries since the mid-1990s, the decline was largely driven by reductions in transfers, particularly unemployment-related benefits. Reforms to personal income taxes had a smaller impact. Policy changes, including reductions in top income taxes and unemployment benefits, have contributed to falling redistribution, though some policies increased redistribution for working families.
can-pro-growth-policies-lift-all-boats-structural-reforms-and-income-distribu...OECD, Economics Department
This document discusses how economic growth has been associated with rising inequality across OECD countries since the 1980s. While GDP per capita and average incomes were expected to rise together, growth has disproportionately benefited those at the top of the income distribution. Structural reforms can impact GDP and household incomes differently, with some reforms lifting lower incomes more than GDP. Reforms to labor markets, product markets, education, and tax systems present opportunities for policies that promote both long-term growth and more equitable income distribution. However, some reforms like tightening unemployment benefits could present tradeoffs between equity and growth goals.
The document is a 2014 economic survey of Portugal by the OECD that finds:
1) Fundamental reforms have helped Portugal emerge from recession, but unemployment remains high and full recovery is still a work in progress.
2) Exports are growing but productivity and competitiveness need further improvement to strengthen the recovery.
3) Public debt is declining but corporate and household debt remain too high, and poverty has increased, especially among children.
4) Further reforms are recommended in areas like services regulation, education, research and development, and the social safety net.
The document summarizes key points from the 2015 OECD Economic Survey of Mexico. It finds that GDP growth has been relatively low and poverty and inequality remain high in Mexico. The Pacto por Mexico reforms, if fully implemented, could raise productivity, living standards, and GDP growth by 1% annually by reducing informality, poverty, and inequality. Additional reforms in areas like the judiciary, labor markets, and increasing female participation could boost GDP growth by another 1%. The document recommends strengthening rule of law, reducing corruption and income inequalities, improving education equity and access to healthcare to maximize the benefits of reforms.
The document summarizes the current state of the global and Saint Lucian economies. It notes that the global economic outlook has worsened as growth has slowed in major economies like China, India, and Brazil. This slowing is expected to negatively impact Saint Lucia through lower tourism, FDI, exports, and grants. Saint Lucia's growth is projected to be below targets for 2012 due to these mounting risks. The government's fiscal position is also expected to deteriorate as the recurrent deficit exceeds targets and revenues fall short. Salaries and wages comprise the largest share of expenditures and have been steadily increasing, posing challenges. Recommendations include foregoing salary increases this period to address fiscal issues and risks to the economy.
How can public finance reforms boost economic growth and enhance income equal...OECD, Economics Department
- There are ways for governments to reform public finance structures to boost economic growth and enhance income equality through packages like increasing public investment, inheritance taxes, and property taxes while lowering taxes on low-income earners and corporate income taxes.
- Estimates show some reforms like reducing taxes on low wages can increase incomes for all income groups while shifting taxes from low to high income earners widens disparities.
- Pairing environmental tax hikes with cuts to taxes on low incomes benefits all income groups by boosting overall output.
Using fiscal levers to escape the low growth trap OECD Economic Outlook prese...OECD, Economics Department
The document discusses using fiscal policy to boost economic growth in OECD countries. It finds that fiscal space, or room for government budget deficits, has increased in most OECD nations since 2014 due to lower interest rates. It recommends countries implement temporary 0.5% of GDP fiscal initiatives for 3-4 years through measures like infrastructure spending and education funding. Such initiatives could boost short-term growth by 0.4-0.6% on average if combined with structural reforms to maximize impact. Collective action across multiple nations could further increase short-term growth gains from fiscal policy.
On 21 September 2018, Scope affirmed the US sovereign rating at AA/ Stable. What are the factors which contribute to the United States losing its AAA rating?
Taxes and transfers redistribute income across OECD countries, lowering inequality. However, the equalizing effect varies widely. While redistribution has declined for almost all OECD countries since the mid-1990s, the decline was largely driven by reductions in transfers, particularly unemployment-related benefits. Reforms to personal income taxes had a smaller impact. Policy changes, including reductions in top income taxes and unemployment benefits, have contributed to falling redistribution, though some policies increased redistribution for working families.
can-pro-growth-policies-lift-all-boats-structural-reforms-and-income-distribu...OECD, Economics Department
This document discusses how economic growth has been associated with rising inequality across OECD countries since the 1980s. While GDP per capita and average incomes were expected to rise together, growth has disproportionately benefited those at the top of the income distribution. Structural reforms can impact GDP and household incomes differently, with some reforms lifting lower incomes more than GDP. Reforms to labor markets, product markets, education, and tax systems present opportunities for policies that promote both long-term growth and more equitable income distribution. However, some reforms like tightening unemployment benefits could present tradeoffs between equity and growth goals.
The document discusses the relationship between finance, growth, and inequality. It finds that while finance can boost growth by allocating capital efficiently, too much finance through excessive deregulation or too-big-to-fail guarantees can harm growth. Increases in bank lending were found to have a more negative link to growth than other types of debt. The expansion of finance has also been linked to rising income inequality as the financial sector disproportionately benefits higher income groups through wages and access to credit. The document advocates policies like restricting too-big-to-fail subsidies and implementing macroprudential regulation to achieve healthy financial systems that support inclusive growth.
Irish economic policy objectives include achieving balanced economic growth through increasing efficiency and equity. Economic growth is measured using GDP and GNP per capita, with the goal of nominal growth in real terms. Inflation and maintaining price stability are also objectives, with the European Central Bank targeting under 2% inflation. Competitiveness is important for Ireland's small, open economy and policies aim to improve education and reduce business costs while investing in infrastructure and transitioning to renewable energy sources.
The How’s Life? report (http://oe.cd/how-is-life) charts the promises and pitfalls for people’s well-being in 35 OECD countries and 6 partner countries. It presents the latest evidence from 50 indicators, covering both current well-being outcomes and resources for future well-being, and including changes since 2005. During this period there have been signs of progress, but gains in some aspects of life have been offset by losses elsewhere. This fourth edition highlights the many faces of inequality, showing that gaps in people’s achievements and opportunities extend right across the different dimensions of well-being. It exposes divisions according to age, gender, and education, and reveals pockets of inequality in all OECD countries. It also brings to light the many well-being disadvantages that migrants face in adapting to life abroad. Additionally, the report examines governance as seen from the citizen’s perspective, revealing gaps between public institutions and the people they serve. Finally, it provides a country-by-country perspective, pinpointing strengths, challenges and changes in well-being over time in 41 country profiles.
How’s Life? is part of the OECD Better Life Initiative, which features a range of studies and analysis about people’s well-being and how to measure it, and includes the interactive Better Life Index website.
Presentation by Mario Solis-Garcia at the OECD Workshop on “Joint Learning for an OECD Trust Strategy” on 14 October 2013. Mr. Solis-Garcia discusses why trust matters and uses a simple economic model to see how government trust influences environment, government, households and timing.
The document discusses redistribution of wealth globally and the role of states in reducing inequality. Wealth worldwide has increased 72% since 2000 to $195 trillion and is estimated to rise 62% more to $315 trillion by 2015. Redistribution can be progressive, transferring wealth from rich to poor, or regressive, transferring from poor to rich, through taxation, policies, welfare programs, and other social factors. The Gini coefficient measures inequality, with higher numbers indicating more unequal distribution. While most countries have high inequality, states can build more efficient markets, expand access to finance, raise incomes through labor reforms, and implement distributive fiscal policies to reduce disparities.
United States 2016 OECD Economic Survey unleashing productivity and expanding...OECD, Economics Department
The document is the 2016 OECD Economic Survey of the United States. It finds that while the US recovery has strengthened and unemployment has returned to pre-crisis levels, productivity growth and business dynamism have slowed. It notes rising inequality and recommends boosting infrastructure investment, strengthening competition policies, and expanding programs to help displaced workers and reduce social disparities to make economic growth more inclusive and sustainable.
The document summarizes key findings from the 2014 OECD Economic Survey of the United States. It discusses recommendations related to strengthening economic growth through tax reform and financial stability policies, improving well-being through better jobs and work-life balance, and managing new energy resources while addressing climate change. Specifically, it notes that while the US recovery has been stronger than other OECD countries, long-term growth may be slowed by population aging. It recommends comprehensive tax reform and policies to promote financial stability. It also recommends improving job quality, expanding paid family leave, and developing regulations for hydraulic fracturing to balance energy production with environmental protection.
The OECD document discusses the global economic outlook and key issues. Global trade growth has slowed dramatically recently, driven partly by weaker growth in China. While advanced economies have remained resilient so far, investment growth has been disappointing. Collective action is needed to boost infrastructure spending, including on climate change mitigation, which could support growth in both the short and long term if done through quality projects and accompanied by structural reforms.
The quarterly CFO Survey is firmly established with media and policy makers as the authoritative barometer of UK corporates’ sentiment and strategies. It is the only survey of major corporate users of capital that gauges attitudes to valuations, risk and financing.
Across the OECD, GDP per capita is converging. In contrast, regional disparities – or differences in GDP per capita across jurisdictions – are rising, mainly as a result of widening productivity differences. Fiscal decentralisation could help reduce them again.
This document summarizes a study on the effects of growth-enhancing policies on microeconomic stability. The study finds that policies promoting growth, such as reducing employment protection and product market regulation, can increase microeconomic instability for firms, workers, and households. However, deeper reforms may boost growth without raising instability. The analysis also shows that tax-benefit systems play a key role in attenuating the impact of individual income volatility on overall household income changes. While some pro-growth reforms have trade-offs with stability and inequality, well-designed policies, like expanding active labor market programs, can promote both growth and stability.
Fiscal space and the composition of public finances - Jean-Marc Fournier, OECDOECD Governance
This presentation was made by Jean-Marc Fournier, OECD, at the 9th Annual Meeting of the OECD network of Parliamentary Budget Officials and Independent Fiscal Institutions held in Edinburgh, Scotland, on 6-7 April 2017.
Highlights from the 2014 edition of the OECD's Sovereign Borrowing Outlook. This includes gross borrowing requirements, net borrowing requirements, central government marketable debt, funding strategies and instruments and distribution channels.
Find out more information at http://www.oecd.org/daf/fin/public-debt/oecdsovereignborrowingoutlook.htm
1) Japan has faced sluggish economic growth and declining potential growth over the past decades, which has left living standards below many other OECD countries. Public debt has risen to 226% of GDP while the population is shrinking.
2) Structural reforms are needed to boost growth, including increasing female labor participation, international trade engagement, private R&D investment, and improving productivity in services. Reforms are also required to reduce debt through fiscal consolidation and control of social spending.
3) Key policy recommendations include implementing Abenomics, reducing debt as the top priority, continuing monetary easing, boosting potential growth through structural reforms, and improving social programs through better targeting.
The document summarizes key points from the 2014 OECD Economic Survey of Canada. It finds that while Canadians enjoy high living standards, exports and productivity growth have been weak. Housing prices have risen sharply, and household debt is high. It recommends gradual interest rate rises, loosening mortgage insurance rules, and expanding rental housing to address imbalances. It also suggests improving skills training programs, reforming health care funding, and increasing taxes from resource development to enhance fiscal sustainability.
Rarely has there been more uncertainty regarding the course of the public finances over the next five years. In this note we aim to answer some of the big questions for the economy in light of the 2021 budget.
Rarely has there been more uncertainty regarding the course of the public finances over the next five years. In this note we aim to answer some of the big questions for the economy in light of the 2021 budget.
This document discusses the economic impact of obesity and the potential for prevention policies to improve health outcomes and reduce costs. It finds that obese patients incur higher healthcare costs than normal-weight patients. Obesity accounts for a significant portion of healthcare budgets in many countries. Comprehensive prevention packages that combine measures like media campaigns, food labeling, and counseling could tackle obesity in a cost-effective way. Prevention is found to save lives by reducing obesity, extend healthy years, and ultimately reduce health expenditures through avoided treatment costs, though the effects may take decades to be realized. Prevention strategies are considered a good long-term investment for both developed and developing countries.
The document summarizes an OECD Economic Survey of Spain. It finds that while the Spanish economy has returned to growth following recession, the key challenge is to boost growth and reduce unemployment significantly through productivity and competitiveness gains. This will require reducing public and private debt, improving labor market policies, and reforms to promote business entry and growth. The survey recommends continuing fiscal consolidation, shifting taxes from labor to consumption, improving insolvency procedures, strengthening active labor market policies, raising innovation quality, and further developing the business sector.
1. The global economy is slowing down, with growth forecasts being reduced.
2. Trade tensions between the US and China have deepened the slowdown and impacted exports, manufacturing, and investment most significantly.
3. Central banks have responded with interest rate cuts and quantitative easing programs, supporting stock markets after an August sell-off.
This document summarizes a presentation on macroeconomic trends, shocks, and prudent levels of government debt. It discusses how long-term projections are used to examine issues like technological change, demographics, and fiscal sustainability over decades. It notes that world growth is projected to slow while emerging economies like India and China increase their share of global output. For OECD countries, aging populations will weigh on growth in living standards. The document outlines a simulation-based approach to determining prudent debt targets for individual countries that account for shocks and ensure debt levels remain below established thresholds. Prudent debt targets and required fiscal efforts to meet them through 2040 are presented for various countries.
The document presents a framework for inclusive growth that links policies to outcomes related to living standards. It discusses channels of transmission from income generation to distribution and living standards. The framework aims to identify policy trade-offs and synergies across dimensions like growth, health, and inequality. Empirical analysis examines how productivity-enhancing and labor market policies impact inequality and employment. The framework and analysis have implications for Latin American and Caribbean countries, highlighting opportunities to promote inclusive growth through improving education quality and equity, reducing barriers to competition, increasing female labor participation, and calibrating minimum wage and labor policies.
The document discusses the relationship between finance, growth, and inequality. It finds that while finance can boost growth by allocating capital efficiently, too much finance through excessive deregulation or too-big-to-fail guarantees can harm growth. Increases in bank lending were found to have a more negative link to growth than other types of debt. The expansion of finance has also been linked to rising income inequality as the financial sector disproportionately benefits higher income groups through wages and access to credit. The document advocates policies like restricting too-big-to-fail subsidies and implementing macroprudential regulation to achieve healthy financial systems that support inclusive growth.
Irish economic policy objectives include achieving balanced economic growth through increasing efficiency and equity. Economic growth is measured using GDP and GNP per capita, with the goal of nominal growth in real terms. Inflation and maintaining price stability are also objectives, with the European Central Bank targeting under 2% inflation. Competitiveness is important for Ireland's small, open economy and policies aim to improve education and reduce business costs while investing in infrastructure and transitioning to renewable energy sources.
The How’s Life? report (http://oe.cd/how-is-life) charts the promises and pitfalls for people’s well-being in 35 OECD countries and 6 partner countries. It presents the latest evidence from 50 indicators, covering both current well-being outcomes and resources for future well-being, and including changes since 2005. During this period there have been signs of progress, but gains in some aspects of life have been offset by losses elsewhere. This fourth edition highlights the many faces of inequality, showing that gaps in people’s achievements and opportunities extend right across the different dimensions of well-being. It exposes divisions according to age, gender, and education, and reveals pockets of inequality in all OECD countries. It also brings to light the many well-being disadvantages that migrants face in adapting to life abroad. Additionally, the report examines governance as seen from the citizen’s perspective, revealing gaps between public institutions and the people they serve. Finally, it provides a country-by-country perspective, pinpointing strengths, challenges and changes in well-being over time in 41 country profiles.
How’s Life? is part of the OECD Better Life Initiative, which features a range of studies and analysis about people’s well-being and how to measure it, and includes the interactive Better Life Index website.
Presentation by Mario Solis-Garcia at the OECD Workshop on “Joint Learning for an OECD Trust Strategy” on 14 October 2013. Mr. Solis-Garcia discusses why trust matters and uses a simple economic model to see how government trust influences environment, government, households and timing.
The document discusses redistribution of wealth globally and the role of states in reducing inequality. Wealth worldwide has increased 72% since 2000 to $195 trillion and is estimated to rise 62% more to $315 trillion by 2015. Redistribution can be progressive, transferring wealth from rich to poor, or regressive, transferring from poor to rich, through taxation, policies, welfare programs, and other social factors. The Gini coefficient measures inequality, with higher numbers indicating more unequal distribution. While most countries have high inequality, states can build more efficient markets, expand access to finance, raise incomes through labor reforms, and implement distributive fiscal policies to reduce disparities.
United States 2016 OECD Economic Survey unleashing productivity and expanding...OECD, Economics Department
The document is the 2016 OECD Economic Survey of the United States. It finds that while the US recovery has strengthened and unemployment has returned to pre-crisis levels, productivity growth and business dynamism have slowed. It notes rising inequality and recommends boosting infrastructure investment, strengthening competition policies, and expanding programs to help displaced workers and reduce social disparities to make economic growth more inclusive and sustainable.
The document summarizes key findings from the 2014 OECD Economic Survey of the United States. It discusses recommendations related to strengthening economic growth through tax reform and financial stability policies, improving well-being through better jobs and work-life balance, and managing new energy resources while addressing climate change. Specifically, it notes that while the US recovery has been stronger than other OECD countries, long-term growth may be slowed by population aging. It recommends comprehensive tax reform and policies to promote financial stability. It also recommends improving job quality, expanding paid family leave, and developing regulations for hydraulic fracturing to balance energy production with environmental protection.
The OECD document discusses the global economic outlook and key issues. Global trade growth has slowed dramatically recently, driven partly by weaker growth in China. While advanced economies have remained resilient so far, investment growth has been disappointing. Collective action is needed to boost infrastructure spending, including on climate change mitigation, which could support growth in both the short and long term if done through quality projects and accompanied by structural reforms.
The quarterly CFO Survey is firmly established with media and policy makers as the authoritative barometer of UK corporates’ sentiment and strategies. It is the only survey of major corporate users of capital that gauges attitudes to valuations, risk and financing.
Across the OECD, GDP per capita is converging. In contrast, regional disparities – or differences in GDP per capita across jurisdictions – are rising, mainly as a result of widening productivity differences. Fiscal decentralisation could help reduce them again.
This document summarizes a study on the effects of growth-enhancing policies on microeconomic stability. The study finds that policies promoting growth, such as reducing employment protection and product market regulation, can increase microeconomic instability for firms, workers, and households. However, deeper reforms may boost growth without raising instability. The analysis also shows that tax-benefit systems play a key role in attenuating the impact of individual income volatility on overall household income changes. While some pro-growth reforms have trade-offs with stability and inequality, well-designed policies, like expanding active labor market programs, can promote both growth and stability.
Fiscal space and the composition of public finances - Jean-Marc Fournier, OECDOECD Governance
This presentation was made by Jean-Marc Fournier, OECD, at the 9th Annual Meeting of the OECD network of Parliamentary Budget Officials and Independent Fiscal Institutions held in Edinburgh, Scotland, on 6-7 April 2017.
Highlights from the 2014 edition of the OECD's Sovereign Borrowing Outlook. This includes gross borrowing requirements, net borrowing requirements, central government marketable debt, funding strategies and instruments and distribution channels.
Find out more information at http://www.oecd.org/daf/fin/public-debt/oecdsovereignborrowingoutlook.htm
1) Japan has faced sluggish economic growth and declining potential growth over the past decades, which has left living standards below many other OECD countries. Public debt has risen to 226% of GDP while the population is shrinking.
2) Structural reforms are needed to boost growth, including increasing female labor participation, international trade engagement, private R&D investment, and improving productivity in services. Reforms are also required to reduce debt through fiscal consolidation and control of social spending.
3) Key policy recommendations include implementing Abenomics, reducing debt as the top priority, continuing monetary easing, boosting potential growth through structural reforms, and improving social programs through better targeting.
The document summarizes key points from the 2014 OECD Economic Survey of Canada. It finds that while Canadians enjoy high living standards, exports and productivity growth have been weak. Housing prices have risen sharply, and household debt is high. It recommends gradual interest rate rises, loosening mortgage insurance rules, and expanding rental housing to address imbalances. It also suggests improving skills training programs, reforming health care funding, and increasing taxes from resource development to enhance fiscal sustainability.
Rarely has there been more uncertainty regarding the course of the public finances over the next five years. In this note we aim to answer some of the big questions for the economy in light of the 2021 budget.
Rarely has there been more uncertainty regarding the course of the public finances over the next five years. In this note we aim to answer some of the big questions for the economy in light of the 2021 budget.
This document discusses the economic impact of obesity and the potential for prevention policies to improve health outcomes and reduce costs. It finds that obese patients incur higher healthcare costs than normal-weight patients. Obesity accounts for a significant portion of healthcare budgets in many countries. Comprehensive prevention packages that combine measures like media campaigns, food labeling, and counseling could tackle obesity in a cost-effective way. Prevention is found to save lives by reducing obesity, extend healthy years, and ultimately reduce health expenditures through avoided treatment costs, though the effects may take decades to be realized. Prevention strategies are considered a good long-term investment for both developed and developing countries.
The document summarizes an OECD Economic Survey of Spain. It finds that while the Spanish economy has returned to growth following recession, the key challenge is to boost growth and reduce unemployment significantly through productivity and competitiveness gains. This will require reducing public and private debt, improving labor market policies, and reforms to promote business entry and growth. The survey recommends continuing fiscal consolidation, shifting taxes from labor to consumption, improving insolvency procedures, strengthening active labor market policies, raising innovation quality, and further developing the business sector.
1. The global economy is slowing down, with growth forecasts being reduced.
2. Trade tensions between the US and China have deepened the slowdown and impacted exports, manufacturing, and investment most significantly.
3. Central banks have responded with interest rate cuts and quantitative easing programs, supporting stock markets after an August sell-off.
This document summarizes a presentation on macroeconomic trends, shocks, and prudent levels of government debt. It discusses how long-term projections are used to examine issues like technological change, demographics, and fiscal sustainability over decades. It notes that world growth is projected to slow while emerging economies like India and China increase their share of global output. For OECD countries, aging populations will weigh on growth in living standards. The document outlines a simulation-based approach to determining prudent debt targets for individual countries that account for shocks and ensure debt levels remain below established thresholds. Prudent debt targets and required fiscal efforts to meet them through 2040 are presented for various countries.
The document presents a framework for inclusive growth that links policies to outcomes related to living standards. It discusses channels of transmission from income generation to distribution and living standards. The framework aims to identify policy trade-offs and synergies across dimensions like growth, health, and inequality. Empirical analysis examines how productivity-enhancing and labor market policies impact inequality and employment. The framework and analysis have implications for Latin American and Caribbean countries, highlighting opportunities to promote inclusive growth through improving education quality and equity, reducing barriers to competition, increasing female labor participation, and calibrating minimum wage and labor policies.
This document summarizes a seminar discussing the effects of growth-enhancing policies on microeconomic stability. It finds that while some pro-growth reforms can increase instability at the individual level, deeper reforms may boost growth without increasing volatility. Reforms like reducing employment protections and unemployment benefits can increase worker reallocation and earnings volatility, while well-designed social programs and competitive markets can attenuate these impacts. Policy settings are linked to a country's distance from the growth-volatility frontier, showing the importance of balancing economic goals.
Presentation by OECD Chief Economist, Laurence Boone, on Inclusive Growth at the farewell conference in honor of Governor Karnit Flug, The Van Leer Institute in Jerusalem, 4 November 2018
Short-term momentum: will it be sustained? OECD Economic Outlook presentation...OECD, Economics Department
The OECD interim economic report provides the following key points:
1) The short-term global economic momentum has become more broad-based across major economies due to improvements in the euro area and synchronised growth across countries.
2) However, strong and sustained medium-term growth is not assured as private investment remains weak and inflation and wage growth are still subdued.
3) Policymakers must pursue fiscal and structural reforms to rebalance support for inclusive growth through better tax and spending policies while managing financial risks.
The document summarizes the key findings of the 2021 Ageing Report published by the European Commission and Economic Policy Committee. It notes that populations across Europe are ageing as fertility rates decline and life expectancy increases. This demographic shift will put pressure on public finances and sustainability of pension and healthcare systems. The report projects rising age-related spending across EU countries in the coming decades and analyzes the budgetary impact of population ageing on spending categories like pensions, healthcare, long-term care and education.
Costa Rica 2016 Economic Assessment making Costa Rica more productive and inc...OECD, Economics Department
Costa Rica has made progress in raising living standards and managing natural resources well. Current challenges include restoring fiscal sustainability by implementing tax reforms, making growth more inclusive by improving access to childcare and reducing inequality, and boosting productivity through greater investment in R&D and reducing barriers to competition.
OECD Economic Outlook - Christian Kastrop, OECDOECD Governance
The global economy is stuck in a low-growth trap characterized by subdued investment, trade, employment, wage, and productivity growth. Productivity growth has slowed and inequality has risen across advanced economies. Comprehensive and collective action is needed from governments to boost growth through increased public investment, structural reforms, and reducing the burden on monetary policy alone. Failure to escape the low-growth trap risks breaking promises made to citizens regarding opportunities for youth, adequate incomes for older populations, and returns for investors.
The document summarizes key findings from the 2016 OECD Economic Survey of the Czech Republic. It finds that while the Czech economy is growing again and unemployment has returned to pre-crisis levels, business R&D spending and productivity growth have stalled. It also notes that the public administration could be more effective, procurement processes are not competitive enough, and infrastructure investment is low. The report recommends steps to boost innovation, improve bankruptcy proceedings, increase access to finance for startups, use performance indicators, enhance joint procurement, and coordinate public investments.
Global economic growth is projected to remain low in 2016 and 2017, with flat growth in advanced economies and slower growth in many emerging markets. Key risks include Brexit, financial vulnerabilities in emerging markets, and increased financial market volatility. Low growth is trapping economies in weak conditions characterized by subdued investment, trade, employment, wages and productivity. This broken growth pattern fails to deliver promised prosperity to youth and investors. The OECD recommends comprehensive, coordinated policy action across countries involving quality public investment, structural reforms tailored to each country, and reducing the burden on monetary policy to put economies on a stronger, more equitable growth path.
OECD: Going for Growth Interim Report 2016
OECD has just published his annual “Going for Growth Interim Report” for the year 2016.
“Going for Growth” offers a comprehensive assessment to help governments reflecting on how policy reforms might affect their citizens’ well-being, and to design policy packages that best meet their objectives. The Going for Growth framework is instrumental in helping G20 countries to monitor their efforts to fulfill the pledge made in 2014 to boost their combined gross domestic product (GDP) by 2%, and to adapt their growth strategies accordingly.
The global economy is stuck in a low growth trap according to the OECD Economic Outlook. Growth has declined in many advanced and emerging market economies. Productivity growth has also slowed and inequality has risen as wages are growing more slowly than productivity. Comprehensive collective action is needed including using fiscal policy to boost public investment while interest rates remain low, as well as structural reforms to increase productivity, wages, and equality. Monetary policy alone cannot break the global economy out of its low growth situation and may become overburdened.
Recent labour market developments and reforms in OECD countriesRockwool Fonden
Director for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs in OECD Stefano Scarpettas presentation at the ROCKWOOL Foundation conference "Øget beskæftigelse kalder på reformer, der virker" in February 2018.
The presentation was recorded and is available on the Youtube channel of the ROCKWOOL Foundation.
The following slides provide the background data and information that have informed the future trends identified under the economy and infrastructure theme. This presentation should be viewed alongside those for the other themes in order for the wider picture to be understood.
Fiscal space and the composition of public finances - Christian Kastrop, OECDOECD Governance
This presentation was made by Christian Kastrop, OECD, at the 9th Annual Meeting of the OECD network of Parliamentary Budget Officials and Independent Fiscal Institutions held in Edinburgh, Scotland, on 6-7 April 2017.
Fiscal space and the composition of public finances - Christian Kastrop, OECDOECD Governance
This presentation was made by Christian Kastrop, OECD, at the 9th Annual Meeting of the OECD network of Parliamentary Budget Officials and Independent Fiscal Institutions held in Edinburgh, Scotland, on 6-7 April 2017.
Sustaining prosperity and wellbeing OECD Economic Survey Denmark 2019 Copenha...OECD, Economics Department
The document provides an economic survey of Denmark by the OECD. Key points include:
- Denmark's economy is growing after a long recovery, though productivity growth is lagging, especially in the services sector.
- Public finances are sustainable if retirement ages continue to rise as planned.
- The financial sector is very large and household debt remains high despite decreases.
- High digitalization in Danish firms has not yet boosted productivity, and mark-ups are rising in some sectors.
Similar to Longer-term forecastings - David Turner, Economics Department, OECD (20)
The document discusses transparency and oversight of political party financing. It finds that financial contributions to political parties are not fully transparent and are still vulnerable to political and foreign influence. Additionally, financial reports from political parties are not always publicly available or submitted on time according to regulations.
Summary of the OECD expert meeting: Construction Risk Management in Infrastru...OECD Governance
Presented at the OECD expert meeting "Construction Risk Management in Infrastructure Procurement: The Loss of Appetite for Fixed-Price Contracts", held on 17 May 2023 at the OECD, Paris and online.
Using AI led assurance to deliver projects on time and on budget - D. Amratia...OECD Governance
Presented at the OECD expert meeting "Construction Risk Management in Infrastructure Procurement: The Loss of Appetite for Fixed-Price Contracts", held on 17 May 2023 at the OECD, Paris and online.
ECI in Sweden - A. Kadefors, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm (SE)OECD Governance
This document discusses different construction project delivery and payment models. It begins by outlining common delivery models like design-bid-build and design-build. It then explains different payment methods that can be used like fixed price, unit prices, and cost-reimbursable. The document also discusses pricing strategies and how they relate to risk transfer between parties. It provides details on collaborative models like early contractor involvement and discusses selecting the optimal contract based on a client's project risks, desired influence, and market conditions.
Building Client Capability to Deliver Megaprojects - J. Denicol, professor at...OECD Governance
Presented at the OECD expert meeting "Construction Risk Management in Infrastructure Procurement: The Loss of Appetite for Fixed-Price Contracts", held on 17 May 2023 at the OECD, Paris and online.
Procurement strategy in major infrastructure: The AS-IS and STEPS - D. Makovš...OECD Governance
Presented at the OECD expert meeting "Construction Risk Management in Infrastructure Procurement: The Loss of Appetite for Fixed-Price Contracts", held on 17 May 2023 at the OECD, Paris and online.
Procurement of major infrastructure projects 2017-22 - B. Hasselgren, Senior ...OECD Governance
Presented at the OECD expert meeting "Construction Risk Management in Infrastructure Procurement: The Loss of Appetite for Fixed-Price Contracts", held on 17 May 2023 at the OECD, Paris and online.
ECI Dutch Experience - A. Chao, Partner, Bird&Bird & J. de Koning, Head of Co...OECD Governance
This document discusses ECI Dutch experience with collaborative contracting. It mentions a McKinsey report from 2018 on collaborative contracting and recent developments in the field. Finally, it provides lessons learned from a project in Amsterdam called Bouwteam De Nieuwe Zijde Noord.
ECI in Sweden - A. Kadefors, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, StockholmOECD Governance
Presented at the OECD expert meeting "Construction Risk Management in Infrastructure Procurement: The Loss of Appetite for Fixed-Price Contracts", held on 17 May 2023 at the OECD, Paris and online.
EPEC's perception of market developments - E. Farquharson, Principal Adviser,...OECD Governance
Presented at the OECD expert meeting "Construction Risk Management in Infrastructure Procurement: The Loss of Appetite for Fixed-Price Contracts", held on 17 May 2023 at the OECD, Paris and online.
Geographical scope of the lines in Design and Build - B.Dupuis, Executive Dir...OECD Governance
Presented at the OECD expert meeting "Construction Risk Management in Infrastructure Procurement: The Loss of Appetite for Fixed-Price Contracts", held on 17 May 2023 at the OECD, Paris and online.
Executive Agency of the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management...OECD Governance
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Presentation of OECD Government at a Glance 2023OECD Governance
Paris, 30 June, 2023
Presentation by Elsa Pilichowski, Director for Public Governance, OECD.
The 2023 edition of Government at a Glance provides a comprehensive overview of public governance and public administration practices in OECD Member and partner countries. It includes indicators on trust in public institutions and satisfaction with public services, as well as evidence on good governance practices in areas such as the policy cycle, budgeting, procurement, infrastructure planning and delivery, regulatory governance, digital government and open government data. Finally, it provides information on what resources public institutions use and how they are managed, including public finances, public employment, and human resources management. Government at a Glance allows for cross-country comparisons and helps identify trends, best practices, and areas for improvement in the public sector.
See: https://www.oecd.org/publication/government-at-a-glance/2023/
The Protection and Promotion of Civic Space: Strengthening Alignment with Int...OECD Governance
Infographics from the OECD report "The Protection and Promotion of Civic Space Strengthening Alignment with International Standards and Guidance".
See: https://www.oecd.org/gov/the-protection-and-promotion-of-civic-space-d234e975-en.htm
OECD Publication "Building Financial Resilience
to Climate Impacts. A Framework for Governments to manage the risks of Losses and Damages.
Governments are facing significant climate-related risks from the expected increase in frequency and intensity of cyclones, floods, fires, and other climate-related extreme events. The report Building Financial Resilience to Climate Impacts: A Framework for Governments to Manage the Risks of Losses and Damages provides a strategic framework to help governments, particularly those in emerging market and developing economies, strengthen their capacity to manage the financial implications of climate-related risks. Published in December 2022.
OECD presentation "Strengthening climate and environmental considerations in infrastructure and budget appraisal tools"
by Margaux Lelong and Ana Maria Ruiz during the 9th Meeting of the OECD Paris Collaborative on Green Budgeting held on 17 and 18 of April 2023 in Paris.
OECD presentation "Building Financial Resilience to Climate Impacts. A Framework to Manage the Risks of Losses and Damages" by Andrew Blazey, Stéphane Jacobzone and Titouan Chassagne. Presented during the 9th Meeting of the OECD Paris Collaborative on Green Budgeting held on 17 and 18 of April 2023 in Paris
OECD Presentation "Financial reporting, sustainability information and assurance" by Peter Welch during the 5th Session during the 9th Meeting of the OECD Paris Collaborative on Green Budgeting held on 17 and 18 of April 2023 in Paris
This document summarizes developments in sovereign green bond markets. It discusses approaches to incorporating environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors into public debt management. Sovereign green bond issuance has grown significantly in both advanced and emerging economies since 2016. Green bonds make up the largest share of the labeled bond market. Major benefits of sovereign green bonds include their positive impact on creditworthiness and alignment with ESG policies. However, issuers also face challenges such as additional costs and complexity of the issuance process. Common leading practices emphasize transparency, collaboration, and commitment to reporting.
Longer-term forecastings - David Turner, Economics Department, OECD
1. THE LONG VIEW: SCENARIOS FOR
THE WORLD ECONOMY TO 2060
OECD Economic Policy Paper #22
by Yvan Guillemette and David Turner
11th Annual Meeting of the OECD Network of
Parliamentary Budget Officials and Independent Fiscal
Institutions (PBO)
4 – February
Lisbon Portugal
2. SHORT
1-2 Quarters
MEDIUM
2-3 Years
LONG
3-4+ Decades
Accuracy
Policy
relevance/
Interest
2
The merits of forecasting at different horizons
Good &
Improving
?
For
Nerds!
Poor & Little
Improvement
Usually Miss
Downturns
Fiscal & mopo
credibility
Quantifying
uncertainty …
tricky
Planning rather
than the Plan
Timing of cycle
less important
Natural horizon:
• Structural
reforms
• Mega-trends
like ageing
• Debt
sustainability
3. • All OECD + non-OECD G20 countries
• Core is production function for potential output
• Linked to short-term Economic Outlook projections
• Saving & Investment equilibrated through R
Long-term scenarios model: key features
3
5. Fiscal block: spending pressures
• Health spending per capita projections depend on
– Growth in real GDP per capita
– Change in the share of population aged 65+
– Baumol effect: 1.3% per year
• Pension expenditure from EC Ageing Report and S&P’s projections
• Other primary expditure constant on real per capita basis.
– Additional channel demographics public finances
– Structural reforms that boost employment rate fiscal dividends.
5
6. 50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Gross government debt, % of GDP
6
Fiscal rule stabilises debt-to-GDP ratio at
initial level using overall tax rate (eg USA)
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Primary revenue, % of GDP (overall tax rate)
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Primary balance, % of GDP
8. No institutional or policy reforms
Look at fiscal pressures building up
Reference point for reform scenarios
BASELINE SCENARIO
8
9. Demographic change weighs on growth in
OECD living standards
The positive contribution from a rising employment rate declines and the
contribution of the working-age population share turns negative
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Trend real GDP per capita growth in the OECD, %
9
10. Living standards converge slowly
• GDP per capita advances in all countries and gradually converges toward
those of the most advanced countries, but to varying degrees.
• Living standards in high-growth emerging market and Eastern European
converge most, driven by catch-up in trend labour efficiency,
• But GDP per capita in the BRIICS and some low-income OECD countries
remains below half that of United States in 2060.
0
40
80
120
160
200
0
40
80
120
160
200
IND
IDN
ZAF
COL
BRA
CRI
CHN
MEX
ARG
CHL
RUS
GRC
LVA
TUR
HUN
POL
PRT
EST
LTU
SVK
SVN
CZE
ISR
ESP
ITA
NZL
KOR
FRA
JPN
GBR
FIN
BEL
CAN
AUS
DEU
AUT
DNK
SWE
ISL
NLD
CHE
NOR
IRL
LUX
2018 2060
C. Real GDP per capita at 2010 Purchasing Power Parities, USA = 100
10
11. Fiscal pressure builds up
-5.0
-2.5
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
15.0
-5.0
-2.5
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
15.0
AUS
AUT
BEL
CAN
CHE
CZE
DEU
DNK
ESP
EST
FIN
FRA
GBR
GRC
HUN
IRL
ISL
ISR
ITA
JPN
KOR
LUX
LVA
NLD
NOR
NZL
POL
PRT
SVK
SVN
SWE
USA
Health expenditure Pension expenditure Other primary expenditure Other factors Total
Change in primary revenue necessary by 2060 to stabilise public debt ratios, % pts of potential GDP
Median OECD tax rate up 6½ % pts of GDP
11
12. 12
Summary of average historical effects on income
equality and output
Source: Agkun, O., B. Cournède and J. Fournier (2017), “The Effects of the tax
mix on inequality and growth”, OECD Economics Working Papers, No. 1447.
13. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
VAT standard rate Revenue maximizing rate 95% Conf. Interval
Country-specific revenue-maximising VAT
standard rates & actual rates, % 2016
Source: Akgun, Bartolini and Cournède (2017) 13
14. Effective marginal effective tax rates of workers
with wages of 167% of the average and estimated
revenue-maximising rate
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Chile
Mexico
Korea
NewZealand
Japan
Switzerland
Canada
Poland
Austria
Estonia
Australia
UnitedStates
Latvia
Germany
Hungary
SlovakRepublic
Turkey
Iceland
CzechRepublic
UnitedKingdom
Israel
Netherlands
Norway
Ireland
Spain
Luxembourg
Slovenia
Denmark
Greece
Finland
Portugal
France
Italy
Belgium
Sweden
EMTR (2017, %) Revenue-maximising rate 95% confidence interval
Source: Akgun, Bartolini and Cournède (2017) 14
15. 1. Better governance & educational attainment in BRIICS
2. Competition-enhancing product market reforms in OECD
3. Flexibility-enhancing labour market reforms in OECD
4. Increase in pensionable age in OECD
5. Higher R&D spending in OECD
6. Higher public investment in OECD
7. Cost containment in health care sector in OECD
8. Higher average import tariffs in all countries
REFORM SCENARIOS
15
16. Labour market reforms could be most
beneficial to women and youth
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Youth (15-24)
Prime-age men (25-54)
Prime-age women (25-54)
Older workers(55-74)
Aggregate (15-74)
Active labour market policies Union bargaining Familybenefits Maternityleave Tax wedges
Impact of labour market reforms on OECD employment rates
Difference from baseline by 2040, % pts of labour force
A reform package to improve labour market policy settings in OECD countries
up to those of leading countries raises the aggregate employment rate by 6½
percentage points by 2040, mostly via higher youth and female employment.
16
17. Labour market reforms + health cost containment
would help alleviate projected fiscal pressures
Change in tax rate to stabilise public debt ratios,
difference from baseline in % pts of potential GDP
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
AUS
AUT
BEL
CAN
CHE
CZE
DEU
DNK
ESP
EST
FIN
FRA
GBR
GRC
HUN
IRL
ISL
ISR
ITA
JPN
KOR
LUX
LVA
NLD
NOR
NZL
POL
PRT
SVK
SVN
SWE
USA
Health expenditure New ALMP and family expenditure Other primary expenditure Other factors Total
Median reduction of 3½ % pts of GDP in tax pressure relative to baseline.
17
18. Change 2017 to 2030, % pts of the population aged 55 to 74
Note: Assumes minimum and normal retirement ages rise by two-thirds of the projected
increase in life expectancy at 65, unless they are already planned to rise as fast or faster
than this, in which case the chart shows a zero effect..
Increase in participation rate of older workers if
retirement ages rise by 2/3 of gains in life
expectancy
20. Another global slump would raise tax
pressure even with no potential output effect?
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
SVN
LVA
CZE
ESP
POL
CHE
GBR
HUN
ISR
ISL
LTU
SVK
JPN
NZL
DEU
BEL
NLD
FRA
IRL
KOR
CAN
AUS
EST
LUX
DNK
AUT
SWE
FIN
PRT
ITA
GRC
USA
Peak change in tax rate to stabilise public debt ratio with global
downturn in 2021, difference from baseline in % pts
20
21. What if interest rates have already
‘normalized’?
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
ITA
JPN
PRT
ESP
BEL
FRA
ISR
GBR
AUT
IRL
GRC
SVK
DEU
NLD
SVN
LVA
HUN
POL
LTU
CAN
CZE
DNK
USA
NZL
ISL
CHE
AUS
KOR
SWE
EST
LUX
FIN
Peak change in primary revenue necessary to stabilise public debt
ratio assuming lower path for interest rates, difference from
baseline in % pts of potential GDP
21
22. • Possible model improvements to fiscal side:
– More complete modelling of fiscal impacts of reforms
– Incorporate Laffer curve effects of taxation
– Better modelling of pensions
• Other Scenarios to explore in detail:
– Another GFC
– Different (r-g)
• YOUR SUGGESTIONS WELCOME !
Future work?
22
23. Agkun, O., B. Cournède and J. Fournier (2017), “The Effects of the tax mix on inequality and growth”,
OECD Economics Working Papers, No. 1447, OECD Publishing, Paris,
https://doi.org/10.1787/c57eaa14-en
Agkun, O., D. Bartolini and B. Cournède (2017), “The Capacity of Governments to Raise Taxes”,
OECD Economics Working Papers, No. 1407, OECD Publishing, Paris,
https://doi.org/10.1787/6bee2df9-en
Guillemette, Y. and D. Turner (2018), “The Long View: Scenarios for the World Economy to 2060”,
OECD Economic Policy Papers, No. 22, OECD, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/b4f4e03e-en
Cavalleri, M. and Y. Guillemette (2017), “A revised approach to trend employment projections in long-
term scenarios”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1384, OECD, Paris,
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/075f0153-en.
Guillemette, Y. et al. (2017), “A revised approach to productivity convergence in long-term scenarios”,
OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1385, OECD, Paris,
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/0b8947e3-en.
Guillemette, Y. and D. Turner (2017), “The fiscal projection framework in long-term scenarios”, OECD
Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1440, OECD, Paris,
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/8eddfa18-en.
Guillemette, Y., A. de Mauro and D. Turner (2018), “Saving, investment, capital stock and current
account projections in long-term scenarios”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers,
No. 1461, OECD, Paris, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/aa519fc9-en
References
23