This report, commissioned by BlackRock, examines investor sentiment and the outlook for investment strategy at insurance companies worldwide, particularly in relation to their fixed-income portfolios and asset allocation more broadly.
MTBiz is for you if you are looking for contemporary information on business, economy and especially on banking industry of Bangladesh. You would also find periodical information on Global Economy and Commodity Markets.
Major Market Crises of History: Reason and Effect YRS1204
There are many market crises that happened over the last 150 years, three of the major ones are discussed in the presentation which are:
1929 Wall Street Crash
2000 Dot-Com Bubble
2008 Global Financial Crisis
This report, commissioned by BlackRock, examines investor sentiment and the outlook for investment strategy at insurance companies worldwide, particularly in relation to their fixed-income portfolios and asset allocation more broadly.
MTBiz is for you if you are looking for contemporary information on business, economy and especially on banking industry of Bangladesh. You would also find periodical information on Global Economy and Commodity Markets.
Major Market Crises of History: Reason and Effect YRS1204
There are many market crises that happened over the last 150 years, three of the major ones are discussed in the presentation which are:
1929 Wall Street Crash
2000 Dot-Com Bubble
2008 Global Financial Crisis
On 8 March 2017, Professor Enrique G Mendoza, Presidential Professor of Economics at the University of Pennsylvania, delivered his lecture ‘The Public Debt Crisis of the United States’ at the European University Institute (EUI).
Hosted by the EUI Economics Department and the Robert Schuman Centre, the lecture formed one of a series of events staged by ADEMU, which also include workshops, conferences and seminars held across Europe.
Professor Mendoza’s lecture examined the five debt crises the United States has experienced since the birth of the republic, defined as year-on-year increases in net federal debt in the 95-percentile.
Indian Economy: The Curious Case of Household Savings-Investment GapAshutosh Bhargava
The debate between former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers has rekindled interest on the topic of "Global Savings Glut". This article gives some interesting insights about the evolution of household savings in India and the way forward.
"Show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome" – Veripath Farmland Funds Q4 Investor Letter: Investing in a World of Financial Repression, Negative Real Rates, Valuation “Challenges” and Inflationary Forces.
Do G7 governments have an incentive to attempt to keep inflation higher for longer and real rates lower for longer? Negative real rates across a broad spectrum of credit assets are a graphic sign that we inhabit a world of financial repression orchestrated by central banks at the formal/informal behest of sovereign borrowers. In a normally functioning market, lenders do not provide capital to borrowers for negative yields – i.e., they do not pay for the privilege of lending. It goes without saying we are not in a normally functioning market.
The Curious Case of Savings-Investment Gap and its Implications for IndiaAshutosh Bhargava
Their has been a remarkable shift in the savings-investment gap at the global level as well as in India. While this has had a tangible impact on global potential growth, the recovery is likely to differ from one country to another. In the Indian context, the recovery in trend growth is likely to be much higher than what is generally peceived and thus requires a more proactive response from policy makers, especially the monetary authorities.
Session 4 - Ali Uppal - Shirley Beard, United KingdomOECD Governance
This presentation was made by Ali Uppal and Shirley Beard, United Kindom, at the 18th Annual Meeting of OECD Senior Financial Management and Reporting Officials held at the OECD Conference Centre, Paris, on 1-2 March 2018
A preliminary version of my paper with Andrea Consiglio on scenario optimization for debt restructuring, presented at the Rome Summer School on Risk Management, LUISS University and
Ademu at the European Parliament, 27 March 2018ADEMU_Project
ADEMU scientific co-ordinator Ramon Marimon joined Marco Buti, director general of DG-ECFIN, DG Economic and Financial Affairs, Roberto Gualtieri, MEP and chair of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs at the European Parliament, Maria Kayamanidou, deputy head of DG Research and Innovation at the EC, and Vincenzo Grassi, secretary general of the European University Institute, to discuss ADEMU's proposals for the European Unemployment Insurance System (EUIS) and the European Stability Fund (ESF).
Should robots be taxed? Discussion by Lukas MayrADEMU_Project
Discussion of the paper by Joao Guerreiro (Northwestern University) Sergio Rebelo (Northwestern University, NBER and CEPR), Pedro Teles (Católica-Lisbon School of Business & Economics, Banco de Portugal and CEPR)
Abhay Bhutada Leads Poonawalla Fincorp To Record Low NPA And Unprecedented Gr...Vighnesh Shashtri
Under the leadership of Abhay Bhutada, Poonawalla Fincorp has achieved record-low Non-Performing Assets (NPA) and witnessed unprecedented growth. Bhutada's strategic vision and effective management have significantly enhanced the company's financial health, showcasing a robust performance in the financial sector. This achievement underscores the company's resilience and ability to thrive in a competitive market, setting a new benchmark for operational excellence in the industry.
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what is the best method to sell pi coins in 2024DOT TECH
The best way to sell your pi coins safely is trading with an exchange..but since pi is not launched in any exchange, and second option is through a VERIFIED pi merchant.
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The Evolution of Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) in India: Challenges...beulahfernandes8
Role in Financial System
NBFCs are critical in bridging the financial inclusion gap.
They provide specialized financial services that cater to segments often neglected by traditional banks.
Economic Impact
NBFCs contribute significantly to India's GDP.
They support sectors like micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), housing finance, and personal loans.
what is the future of Pi Network currency.DOT TECH
The future of the Pi cryptocurrency is uncertain, and its success will depend on several factors. Pi is a relatively new cryptocurrency that aims to be user-friendly and accessible to a wide audience. Here are a few key considerations for its future:
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1. Mainnet Launch: As of my last knowledge update in January 2022, Pi was still in the testnet phase. Its success will depend on a successful transition to a mainnet, where actual transactions can take place.
2. User Adoption: Pi's success will be closely tied to user adoption. The more users who join the network and actively participate, the stronger the ecosystem can become.
3. Utility and Use Cases: For a cryptocurrency to thrive, it must offer utility and practical use cases. The Pi team has talked about various applications, including peer-to-peer transactions, smart contracts, and more. The development and implementation of these features will be essential.
4. Regulatory Environment: The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies is evolving globally. How Pi navigates and complies with regulations in various jurisdictions will significantly impact its future.
5. Technology Development: The Pi network must continue to develop and improve its technology, security, and scalability to compete with established cryptocurrencies.
6. Community Engagement: The Pi community plays a critical role in its future. Engaged users can help build trust and grow the network.
7. Monetization and Sustainability: The Pi team's monetization strategy, such as fees, partnerships, or other revenue sources, will affect its long-term sustainability.
It's essential to approach Pi or any new cryptocurrency with caution and conduct due diligence. Cryptocurrency investments involve risks, and potential rewards can be uncertain. The success and future of Pi will depend on the collective efforts of its team, community, and the broader cryptocurrency market dynamics. It's advisable to stay updated on Pi's development and follow any updates from the official Pi Network website or announcements from the team.
Seminar: Gender Board Diversity through Ownership NetworksGRAPE
Seminar on gender diversity spillovers through ownership networks at FAME|GRAPE. Presenting novel research. Studies in economics and management using econometrics methods.
BYD SWOT Analysis and In-Depth Insights 2024.pptxmikemetalprod
Indepth analysis of the BYD 2024
BYD (Build Your Dreams) is a Chinese automaker and battery manufacturer that has snowballed over the past two decades to become a significant player in electric vehicles and global clean energy technology.
This SWOT analysis examines BYD's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats as it competes in the fast-changing automotive and energy storage industries.
Founded in 1995 and headquartered in Shenzhen, BYD started as a battery company before expanding into automobiles in the early 2000s.
Initially manufacturing gasoline-powered vehicles, BYD focused on plug-in hybrid and fully electric vehicles, leveraging its expertise in battery technology.
Today, BYD is the world’s largest electric vehicle manufacturer, delivering over 1.2 million electric cars globally. The company also produces electric buses, trucks, forklifts, and rail transit.
On the energy side, BYD is a major supplier of rechargeable batteries for cell phones, laptops, electric vehicles, and energy storage systems.
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesDOT TECH
The rate at which pi will be listed is practically unknown. But due to speculations surrounding it the predicted rate is tends to be from 30$ — 50$.
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@Pi_vendor_247
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
Lecture slide titled Fraud Risk Mitigation, Webinar Lecture Delivered at the Society for West African Internal Audit Practitioners (SWAIAP) on Wednesday, November 8, 2023.
1. The Blind Side of Public Debt Spikes
Laura Jaramillo, Carlos Mulas-Granados
and Elijah Kimani
Fiscal Affairs Department
International Monetary Fund
ADEMU conference-Bonn, June 7th, 2016
2. Presentation outline
2
I. Motivation for this project
II. Characterizing Debt Spikes
III. What drives debt spikes?
IV. What is behind SFAs?
V. What are the consequences of sizable debt
spikes?
VI. Can more realistic SFAs improve debt
forecasts?
VII.Concluding remarks
4. 4
I. Motivation for this project
Contrary to popular belief, large debt increases are not driven by high
primary deficits…WHAT IS BEHIND DEBT SPIKES?
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
1973-1987 1988-2007 2008-2015
Change in debt to GDP
Cumulative primary deficits
Source: FAD Historical Public Debt Database, Mauro (2013), IMF Fiscal Monitor,
and authors’ estimates Note: Each sub-period shows the averages across
advanced and developing countries for which data is available
6. II. What is a debt spike?
6
Criteria for Episode Selection
• At least 1%GDP increase in debt/GDP per year
• At least 10 percent of GDP increase in debt during the episode [Abbas, 2011;
Weber, 2012]
Conditions
• No time limit on the maximum duration of episodes
• At least 2 years difference between the episodes (if <2 years, then
considered the same episode)
• There is data available to make the calculations for the debt
decomposition for the duration of the episode
7. II. What is a debt spike?
7
We find a total of 179 episodes of multiyear debt accumulation greater than
10 percent of GDP, 80 among advanced economies and 99 among emerging
and low income countries.
Table 1. Duration of debt accumulation episodes
Max 75% 25% Min Median
ALL 179 15 7 3 1 5
ADV 80 14 8 4 1 6
EM & LIC 99 15 6 2 1 4
Number of
Episodes
Episode Duration
8. II. What is a debt spike?
8
Total debt increase and duration of debt accumulation episodes
Median debt spike episode
Median debt spike episode
9. II. What is a debt spike?
9
Debt spikes are not rare events: After 10 years, the probability of falling into a
debt spike is 50%; after 20 years the probability is 80%.
0.000.250.500.751.00
0 20 40 60 80
analysis time
ADV EME
LIC
1-Kaplan-Meier survival estimates
0.000.250.500.751.00
0 20 40 60 80
analysis time
1-Kaplan-Meier survival estimate
10yr= 50%
20yr= 80%
11. III. What drives debt spikes?
11
𝑑 𝑇 − 𝑑0 =
𝑡=1
𝑇
𝑟𝑡 − 𝐺𝑡
1 + 𝐺𝑡
𝑑 𝑡−1 +
𝑡=1
𝑇
𝑝𝑡 +
𝑡=1
𝑇
𝑠𝑡
𝑑 𝑇 − 𝑑0 =
𝑡=1
𝑇
𝑟𝑡
1 + 𝐺𝑡
𝑑 𝑡−1 −
𝑡=1
𝑇
𝜋 𝑡
1 + 𝐺𝑡
𝑑 𝑡−1 −
𝑡=1
𝑇
𝑔𝑡
1 + 𝑔𝑡
𝑑 𝑡−1 +
𝑡=1
𝑇
𝑝𝑡 + +
𝑡=1
𝑇
𝑠𝑡
Where: d= debt to GDP; r = nominal effective interest rate; G = nominal GDP growth
rate; π = growth rate of GDP deflator; g = real GDP growth rate; p = primary deficit
to GDP; s=stockflow adjustment to GDP
Debt decomposition formula:
Interest rate Inflation Real GDP
growth
Primary
deficit
Stock flow
adjustment
Interest rate
growth
differential
Primary
deficit
Stock flow
adjustment
Total
change in
Debt
Past Debt
12. III. What drives debt spikes?
12
Stock-flow adjustment (SFA) is the major driver of debt spikes
AEs EMEs & LICs
For the median episode in AEs, debt increases 25% of
GDP; and SFA increases 20% of GDP
For the median episode in EMEs & LICs, debt
increases 24 % of GDP; and SFA increases 30% of GDP
Data on foreign currency denominated debt is only available for 24 out of the 99 developing country episodes. For these 24 episodes, stock-flow
adjustments at the median amount to 16 percent of GDP, of which 6 percent of GDP can be attributed to the depreciation of the exchange rate.
13. 13
III. What drives debt spikes?
These findings confirm previous studies. For example:
• Campos et al. (2006) used data from 117 countries between 1972-2003 and showed that
budget deficits account for a relatively small fraction of debt growth and that stock-flow
reconciliation is one of the key determinants of debt dynamics.
• Abbas et al. (2011) looked at 60 episodes of debt increases between 1880–2007 and found
that key contributors to debt surges during nonrecessionary periods were both primary deficits
and stock-flow adjustments.
• Weber (2012), using data for 163 countries between 1980 and 2010, shows that stock-flow
adjustments were a significant source of debt increases, while they played only a minor role in
explaining debt decreases.
15. IV. What is behind SFAs?
15
In the EU (2002-2014), the main driver of SFA increases during debt spikes
was the net acquisition of financial assets (9% of GDP)
16. IV. What is behind SFAs?
16
A large portion of the financial assets acquired were relatively illiquid, such
as loans, financial derivatives, equity and investment fund units.
17. IV. What is behind SFAs?
17
In our global sample, the size of SFAs during debt spikes increases with
contingent liabilities, currency depreciation and with ‘weak’ politics.
18. IV. What is behind SFAs?
18
Better fiscal institutions can help reduce average SFAs
19. IV. What is behind SFAs?
19
The probability of suffering a debt spike is lower when there are stronger
budget institutions (both measured by PIMA and PIME indexes above the
median value)
Strong Institutions (PIMA>median)
Weak Institutions (PIMA<median)
0.000.250.500.751.00
0 20 40 60
analysis time
pimascore_high = 0 pimascore_high = 1
1-Kaplan-Meier survival estimates
Strong Institutions (PIME>median)
Weak Institutions (PIME<median)
0.000.250.500.751.00
0 20 40 60
analysis time
pimescore_high = 0 pimescore_high = 1
1-Kaplan-Meier survival estimates
20. 20
V. What are the
Consequences
of Sizeable Debt
Spikes?
21. III. What drives debt spikes?
21
Large SFAs are directly associated with a higher probability of suffering flat-
debt paths in the aftermath of debt spikes
Probit
Ex-post
Flat-debt path
Ex-post
Flat-debt path
Ex-post
Flat-debt path
Ex-post
Flat-debt path
Debt level (end-of-episode) 1.181*** 1.017*** 1.011*** 1.016***
(0.0569) (0.0566) (0.0525) (0.0533)
Average SFA (during episode) 0.671*** 0.782*** 0.613***
(0.1) (0.0954) (0.183)
Average Primary Balance (during episode) -2.841*** -2.776***
(0.524) (0.537)
Average Episode Growth (during episode) -0.214
(0.576)
Average Episode Inflation (during episode) 0.312
(0.32)
Constant 25.82*** 24.15*** 20.45*** 20.71***
(3.281) (2.935) (2.805) (2.832)
Observations 178 177 177 177
R-squared 0.71 0.773 0.806 0.807
If the average drop in debt between years three to five after the end of the debt spike is less than 10 percent of GDP, we consider that
this country suffers from a non-declining debt path (taking a value of 1)
23. 23
Many countries are optimistic in their debt forecasts.
VI. Can more realistic SFAs improve debt
forecasts?
Distribution of Actual and Forecast Annual Changes in Debt to GDP
Sources: World Economic Outlook (WEO), Eurostat, and authors’ estimates.
Note: Forecasts for t+2, t+3, and t+4. Columns for "EU countries" correspond to observations for 27
countries for annual forecast vintages between 1991 and 2014. Columns for "all countries"
correspond to observations for 85 countries for Spring WEO vintages between 1995 and 2014.
Debt Forecast Error:
1.5% GDP per year;
6% GDP per
forecast period
24. VI. Can more realistic SFAs improve debt
forecasts?
24
Forecasts of SFAs are typically biased (they are always higher than expected).
Distribution of Annual Forecast Errors of SFAs Average Stock Flow Adjustments, Actual vs Forecast,
1991-2014
Note: Observations for 27 countries between 1991-2014. Forecasts for T+2, T+3, and T+4.
25. VI. Can more realistic SFAs improve debt
forecasts?
25
WEO forecasts that by 2018 debt would be on a declining path in 17 out of 23
European countries. If we instead used historical SFAs for these countries, only 9
of these countries would have debt on a declining path.
WEO Forecasted Change in Debt to GDP, 2015-2018 SGP Forecasted Change in Debt to GDP, 2015-2018
27. 27
• We use the longest historical time series (including the global financial
crisis) and show that large debt spikes are driven by high SFAs, not primary
deficits
• This blind side of debt dynamics is linked to political and institutional
weaknesses.
• The consequences of large SFAs are long-lasting, because they lead to
higher debt accumulation in exchange of illiquid assets.
• SFAs should be properly forecasted. This would make debt projections
more realistic.
• Higher debt buffers would be needed, given the size of SFAs, their lack of
forecasting and their relative frequency,
VII. Concluding remarks
30. Episodes of debt declines > 10% of GDP
(47 ADV & 90 EME/LIC episodes)
30
AEs EMEs & LICs
For the median episode in AEs, debt declines of 18% of
GDP; SFA increases 4% of GDP; primary surpluses of
18% of GDP
For the median episode in EMEs & LICs, debt declines
35% of GDP; SFA increases 3% of GDP; primary
surpluses of 5% of GDP
31. Debt Spikes > 20% of GDP
(Total 107: 49 ADV & 58 EME/LIC episodes)
31