6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 Integrative Risk Management - Towards Resilient Cities. 28 August - 01 September 2016 in Davos, Switzerland

1. A Complex Systems Perspective
on Urban Disasters
James M. Shultz, Andreas Rechkemmer, Neil F. Johnson
Presented at: 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference (IDRC), Global Risk Forum, Davos, Switzerland, 31 August 2016

2. Enriching DRR: Integrating a Complex Systems Perspective
Complex Systems Integration
The IDRC/Global Risk Forum
provides an optimal platform
for stimulating the integration of
complex systems analysis and
disaster risk reduction (DRR).

3. Enriching DRR: Integrating a Complex Systems Perspective
Complex Systems Integration
Integration of complex systems thinking is accelerating
and is particularly notable in these areas:
disaster prediction,
exploration of “unexpected interdependent risks”,
analysis of complex webs of disaster emergence,
description of cascading consequences, and
elucidation of the concept of “general resilience” in the
context of DRR and disaster risk management (DRM).

4. Enriching DRR: Integrating a Complex Systems Perspective
Precepts of Complexity Science Applied to Disasters:
•Disasters create disasters.
•Disasters occur more often than by random chance.
•The disaster risk landscape is becoming increasingly complex.

5. Proliferation of Population Coupled with Concentration in Urban Settings

6. Proliferation of Population Coupled with Concentration in Urban Settings

7. Proliferation of Population: Global Distribution of Flood Zones

8. Proliferation of Population: Coastal Zones Impacted by Tropical Cyclones

9. Proliferation of Population: Tectonic Plate Boundaries: Earthquake Origination

10. United States Tornado Tracks

11. Proliferation of Population: Increasing Frequency/Severity of El Niño / ENSO

12. Enriching DRR: Integrating a Complex Systems Perspective
Complex Systems Integration:
U.S. BLIZZARD OF 2016

13. Enriching DRR: Integrating a Complex Systems Perspective
Precepts of Complexity Science Applied to Disasters:
•Disaster risks are globally networked.
•Disaster events cascade and compound.
•Disasters produce unanticipated “emergent” outcomes.

14. Blizzard of 2016
Ingredient Number 1: Record-setting El Niño 2015/2016
In December 2015 warmest El Niño waters migrate west toward International Dateline

15. Blizzard of 2016
Ingredient Number 2: Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Wet and Dry Cycles
In late December 2015 enhanced phase (wet/stormy) MJO migrates east toward Dateline
Convective
Phase
Suppressed
Phase

16. Blizzard of 2016
Ingredient Number 3: MJO and El Niño (ENSO) Superposition
This sets off an explosion of thunderstorms and tropical systems

17. Blizzard of 2016
Happy Holidays 2015 – U.S.A.!
Meanwhile on the other side of the world, the U.S. East Coast is warm and dry

18. Blizzard of 2016
Happy New Year 2016 – American Samoa!
Ingredient Number 4: Thunderstorm systems form near equator and Dateline
Tropical Cyclone 06P forms and strengthens into Cyclone Ula

19. Blizzard of 2016
Ingredient Number 4: Thunderstorm systems also form Cyclone Ula

20. Blizzard of 2016
Ingredient Number 5: Thunderstorms destabilized the Jet Stream
Jet stream developed large ridges and troughs pushing warm air far north

21. Enriching DRR: Integrating a Complex Systems Perspective
Precepts of Complexity Science Applied to Disasters:
•Disaster sequences are typically “non-linear.”
•Disaster events often go from bad to worse and often rapidly.
•Disaster planning must focus on the “unknown unknowns.”

22. Blizzard of 2016
Mid-January: Low-pressure precipitation-generating systems enters Pacific Northwest
Ingredient Number 6: Low-pressure system come ashore in the Pacific Northwest

23. Blizzard of 2016
Mid-January: Low-pressures systems moves diagonally (NW to SE ) across US
Ingredient Number 6: Low-pressure drops south to Texas and moves eastward

24. Blizzard of 2016
Ingredient Number 7: North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations Go Negative
Meteorological signal for cold air intrusions/possible big snow storms in NE United States

25. Blizzard of 2016
Low Pressure Moves Southeast

26. Blizzard of 2016
Low pressure moves southeast

27. Blizzard of 2016
Low pressure moves southeast

28. Blizzard of 2016
Low pressure moves east and turns north

29. Ingredient Number 8: All the components come together to create a “Nor’easter”
Blizzard of 2016

30. Blizzard of 2016
Blizzard conditions develop

31. Blizzard of 2016
Blizzard produces heavy snowfall and strong winds

32. Blizzard of 2016
Blizzard produces heavy snowfall and strong winds

33. Blizzard of 2016
Blizzard produces heavy snowfall and strong winds

34. Blizzard exits the U.S. and moves toward the U.K.
Blizzard of 2016

35. Blizzard of 2016

36. Blizzard of 2016

37. Ingredient Number 9: U.S. Northeast Urban “Megalopolis”
Blizzard of 2016

38. Ingredient Number 9: U.S. Northeast Urban “Megalopolis”
Blizzard of 2016

39. Ingredient Number 9: U.S. Northeast Urban “Megalopolis”
Blizzard of 2016

40. Ingredient Number 9: U.S. Northeast Urban “Megalopolis”
Blizzard of 2016

41. Ingredient Number 9: U.S. Northeast Urban “Megalopolis”
Blizzard of 2016

42. Ingredient Number 10: The Washington Post’s “Capital Weather Gang”
Blizzard of 2016

43. Enriching DRR: Integrating a Complex Systems Perspective
Precepts of Complexity Science Applied to Disasters:
•Disasters create disasters.
•Disasters occur more often than by random chance.
•The disaster risk landscape is becoming increasingly complex.
•Disaster risks are globally networked.
•Disaster events cascade and compound.
•Disasters produce unanticipated “emergent” outcomes.
•Disaster sequences are typically “non-linear.”
•Disaster events often go from bad to worse and often rapidly.
•Disaster planning must focus on the “unknown unknowns.”