This document summarizes and discusses climate scientist James Hansen's predictions from 1981 and 2016. It discusses how Hansen accurately predicted warming trends in a 1981 paper. It then summarizes Hansen's 2016 paper on ice melt, sea level rise, and superstorms, predicting up to 5 meters of sea level rise by 2050-2058 if carbon emissions are not reduced. It discusses threats to the ocean food chain from acidification. It questions whether renewable energy like solar, wind, and nuclear are advancing quickly enough. It provides background on these topics and debates solutions like a carbon fee and dividend system.

1. Climate Scientist Hansen’s 1981
Predictions Came True.
What about 2016?
1981 2015
Paul H. Carr
AF Research Laboratory Emeritus

2. Climate Scientist James Hansen’s 1981
Predictions Came True.
What about his 2016 predictions?
1. 1981 Climate Impact of Increasing
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide. (Science)
2. 2016 Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise, and
Superstorms… (Atmos. Phys. Chem)
3. Ocean acidification is threatening the
bottom of our food chain.
4. Is green solar, wind, and nuclear
technology advancing fast enough ?

3. February 14, 2017
To our earth with love.

4. TEMPERATURES ON THE MOON
No greenhouse gas atmosphere
• Diurnal Variations:
Day 123 C (396 Kelvin)
Night -233 C (40 Kelvin)
Average -65 C (218 Kelvin)
ON EARTH
• Greenhouse gases, blanketing the earth, give much
smaller variations.
• On cloudless nights,
non-condensing, persistent, and increasing CO2, CH4, &
other greenhouse gases keep us warmer than on the
moon.

5. Increasing CO2 gas density: 1. raises temperature of earth’s surface.
2. reduces temperature of the stratosphere.
5

7. CORRELTAION BETWEEN TEMPAND CO2 INCREASE
1880 – 1980: CO2 increased 47 ppm.
1980 – 2017: CO2 increased 52 ppm.
Aerosols
7

8. Aerosol pollution from coal burning in Beijing
Schools must sometimes be closed.
World Health Organization safe level: 25 mg/m3
Aerosol level in Beijing: 505 mg/m3
http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip/magazine/physicstoday/news/10.1063/PT.5.4009?utm_source=Physics+Today&utm_medium=email&utm
_campaign=5229780_Physics+Today%3a+The+week+in+Physics+12-
16+January&utm_content=$LINK_KEYWORD$&dm_i=1Y69,343BO,E1O2I6,B5VQT,1
Aerosols
reflect
sunlight back
into space,
cooling our
panet

10. • 2015 Replaced ship sea surface temperature by more accurate buoy measurement.
• Increased sensors in the Arctic, which is warming 2 – 3 times faster than the global
average. 10
“CO2 warming
should emerge
from the noise of
natural variability
(1981)” Hansen

11. This global temperature chart is updated at Columbia University by Dr. Makiko Sato.
Data is based on GISTEMP analysis (mostly NOAA data sources) as described by Hansen,
Ruedy, Sato & Lo
2016 & 2015
Warmest years
On Record

12. “Physics
Today”
Jan 2009
Pg. 48.
11- yr
sun-spot
cycle.
No
increase
in solar
irradiance
since
1979.
12

13. WEATHER EXTREMES ARE INCREASING
Atmosphere holds more water at higher temps.
-Wet areas are becoming wetter: Floods, Snow
-Dry areas, drier: Droughts, Wildfires
13

14. Summer 2010 drought in Russia: No longer exported wheat.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/deja-food-will-social-unrest-surge-corn-prices-soar
Social unrest accompanies food price increases.

15. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/09/us/princeville-north-carolina-hurricane-matthew-floods-black-history.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-
heading&module=second-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news
Linda Worsley outside her Princeville, NC home, which was
demolished after being damaged in a flood from Hurricane
Matthew (2016). Her town was also flooded out by Hurricane
Floyd in 1999. These hurricanes used to occur every 100
years. The town may be abandoned.

16. T
24 Aug 2005. Tropical
Storm Approaches
Southern Florida.
28 Aug 2005. Katrina,
Category 5 Hurricane,
gained energetic winds of
175 mph due to the
record high temperatures
of the Gulf of Mexico.
28 Aug 2005. Katrina,
Category 5, 175 mph
winds. Absorbed energy
from the record high
temperatures of the
Gulf of Mexico.
29 Aug 2005. Katrina
causes $100Bs damage to
New Orleans, LA
KATRINA: Tropical Storm to Hurricane

17. A darker Arctic is boosting global warming
From1979 to 2011, less reflecting ice, more absorbing water made
North Pole warm twice as fast as the rest of the earth.
http://www.pnaorg/content/early/2014/02/13/1318201111.abstract
Proc. National Academy of Science, Feb 18, 2014.
ARCTIC MELTING IN THE LAST 32 YEARS
SATELITE PHOTO
17

18. The rate of sea
level increase
correlates with
the blue line of
CO2 increase.
Sea level rise is a proxy
for global temperature,
due to thermal
expansion (50%) &
the melting of ice (50%)
Sea level rise rate has
increased 4 times:
3.1 mm/year
( 1 ft/100 yr. ) now
from 0.8 mm/year in
1900
18

19. Miami Beach is a flood zone during King High Tides.

20. • Miami is spending $400 to $500
million for pumps and sea walls,
but the sea is seeping under its
limestone foundations.
• Increasing sea levels are
encroaching on fresh water
supplies.

21. 21

22. Accelerated West Antarctic
ice mass loss continues to
outpace North Antarctic gains
Christopher Harig, , Frederik J. Simons
Department of Geosciences,
Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
Earth and Planetary Science Letters.
Volume 415, 1 April 2015, Pages 134–141
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0
012821X15000564
22

23. NASA photos of Thwaites Glacier, size of Mexico,
Western Antarctica.
Richard Alley, a glaciologist at Penn State University,
an author of the last IPCC report:“If the Thwaites Glacier
breaks free from it rocky berth, it woud raise sea levels 10 ft.”23

24. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3761–3812, Mar 2016 www.atmos-chem-
phys.net/16/3761/2016/ doi:10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016 © Author(s) 2016. CC Attribution
3.0 License.
2. Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from
paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern
observations that 2 C global warming could be dangerous
James Hansen1, Makiko Sato1, Paul Hearty2, Reto Ruedy3,4, Maxwell Kelley3,4,
Valerie Masson-Delmotte5, Gary Russell4, George Tselioudis4, Junji Cao6, Eric
Rignot7,8, Isabella Velicogna7,8, Blair Tormey9, Bailey Donovan10, Evgeniya
Kandiano11, Karina von Schuckmann12, Pushker Kharecha1,4, Allegra N.
Legrande4, Michael Bauer4,13, and Kwok-Wai Lo3,4
1Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions, Columbia University Earth Institute,
New York, NY 10115, USA 2Department of Environmental Studies, University of
North Carolina at Wilmington, NC 28403, USA 3Trinnovium LLC, New York, NY 10025, USA 4NASA
Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA 5Institut Pierre Simon
Laplace, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), Gif-sur-Yvette,
France 6Key Lab of Aerosol Chemistry & Physics, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of
Sciences, Xi’an 710075, China 7Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena,
CA 91109, USA 8Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA
Received: 11 Jun 2015 – Published in Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.: 23 Jul 2015Revised: 17 Feb 2016 – Accepted: 18 Feb 2016 – Published: 22 Mar 2016

25. Sea levels could rise by 1 m (3 ft) by 2050. Could we take action to
prevent a 5 m (18 ft) rise by 2058? The lifetime of CO2 is 100 years.
Atmos. Chem. Phys., March 2016.
J. Hansen et. al.
1 M TIPPING LEVEL

26. 5 Meters (18 Feet) Sea Level Rise

27. World Bank 2013 Forecast
Average global flood losses will multiply from
$6 billion per year in 2005 to
$52 billion a year by 2050
with just social-economic factors, such as
increasing population and property value, taken
into account.
Add in the risks from sea-level rise and sinking
land, and global flood damage for large coastal
cities could cost $1 trillion a year if cities don’t
take steps to adapt.

28. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current.
It warms the temperatures of the Arctic, northern Europe.
As the Arctic warms up and less freezing occurs, the AMOC will shut down. In the geological
past, the result has been that the deep waters of the ocean warm up as much as 140C.
Paradoxically in the near term, the northern Europe and North American areas will cool down
significantly

29. Climate Change is
about our legacy.
Dr. James E. Hansen
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/

30. Jim Hansen was “stoppered” during the Bush
administration.(From http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/

31. Photo Credit: Stephen Crowley/The New York Times

32. When Jim Hansen defended his research by quoting the above
mission statement, the Bush Administration removed it. (This
vugraph is from http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/)

33. Absorbed CO2 increases acidity, reduces the calcification rate and
nature’s ability to sequester carbon.
3. INCREASING ACIDIFICATION THREATENS THE BOTTOM OF THE FOOD CHAIN

34. Solomon H. Katz, Ph.D is a leading expert
on the anthropology of food, U of Penn.
He was editor-in-chief of the Encyclopedia
of Food and Culture published by Scribner
(2003). Prof Katz was Chair of the AAA Task
Force on World Food Problems.
Barry Costa-Pierce, Ph.D, Chair of the
Department of Marine Sciences, University
of New England. Biddeford, Maine. Pioneer
of the field of “Ecological Aquaculture” and
helped develop the UN Food and Agriculture
Organization’s global protocols.
Can World Food Production Keep up with
Population Growth in the Face of Climate
Change & Sea Acidification?

35. THE “WICKED PROBLEM” OF CLIMATE CHANGE:
WHAT IS IT DOING TO US AND FOR US?
63nd Conference of the Institute on Religion in an Age
of Science, www.iras.org
June 24—July 1, 2017. Star Island off Portsmouth, NH.
• Climate change is complex with causes and consequences in
economic, ecological, ethical, and technological realms.
• How can global warming be a catalyst for spiritual and
societal transformation?

36. Solar PVs on historic Star Island form the largest off-grid array in New England

37. S Sunrise on Star Island

38. SUNSET OVER PORTSMOUTH, NH FROM STAR ISLAND
Learn more at www.iras.org

39. Climate Scientist James Hansen’s 1981
Predictions Came True.
What about his 2016 predictions?
1. 1981 Climate Impact of Increasing
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide. (Science)
2. 2016 Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise, and
Superstorms… (Atmos. Phys. Chem)
3. Ocean acidification is threatening the
bottom of our food chain.
4. Is green solar, wind, and nuclear
technology advancing fast enough ?

40. China Aims to Spend at Least $360 Billion on
Renewable Energy by 2020
By MICHAEL FORSYTHE NYTimes JAN. 5, 2017. Solar
and wind manufacturing will create 13 million jobs.
-------------------------
Regardless of what the government does, Bill Gates
said he is moving forward to lead a more than $1 billion
investment fund to support breakthrough technologies
and companies with the potential to help bring global
greenhouse gas emissions to "near zero."
Gates outlined details of the Breakthrough Energy
Ventures Fund, supported by 20 other business leaders
like Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos and Virgin Group founder
Richard Branson. The net worth of the investor group is
at least $150 billion.
http://wwwhttp://wwwhttp://www1.PageLog-Toggle

41. Bill Gates is funding new clean energy, but
it's not solar or wind
http://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gates-talks-private-nuclear-fission-plant-
terrapower-2016-4
Gates said that TerraPower's nuclear pilot
plant will be built in China. The economics,
safety, waste, and all the key parameters are
dramatically improved.
The traveling wave reactor converts
depleted uranium, a byproduct of the
nuclear-fission process, into usable fuel.

42. China plans to build 400 nuclear
plants by midcentury.
Bill Gates’ TerraPower, for instance, has
designed a traveling wave reactor, which
utilizes nuclear waste. Another design, by two
MIT researchers, again uses waste, mixed into
molten salt. In short, the nuclear reactors of
the future will utilize not just regular uranium
but will take care of the waste as well – the
same waste that raises so much concern
among environmentalists and the general
public.

43. Trump Could Fuel A Nuclear Energy Boom In 2017
By James Stafford - Dec 06, 2016
http://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Nuclear-Power/Trump-Could-Fuel-A-Nuclear-
Energy-Boom-In-2017.html
When I asked MIT Prof of
Nuclear Science &
Engineering,
Ian Hutchison about this
he replied, “The
Republicans are less scared
of nuclear energy than the
Democrats.”
MIT is presently designing
tethered off-shore nuclear
reactors

44. How fear of nuclear power is hurting the
environment | YouTube 2016 TED Talk by Michael Shellenberger
Solar energy is only available 26% of the time and
wind 33%.
Nuclear is 24/7.
We are decommissioning nuclear reactors faster
than the increase in wind and solar.
To make up for this net decrease, we are
increasing our burning of fossil fuels, raising
carbon dioxide emissions, and warming our planet.

45. Source Total Investment:
60 Year Project
Annual Before-Tax
Revenue
Market Price to
Break Even at 15
Years
Life Span
before
Retooling
Comparative
ROI at 60 Years
($0.145/KWhr)
Nuclear $17.0 Billion $1.244 Billion $0.12/KWhr 60 years $74.7 Billion
Land-based wind
+ batteries
$44.6 Billion $0.873 Billion $$0.11/KWhr 25 years $52.4 Billion
Solar + Batteries $55.8 Billion $0.208 Billion $0.15/KWhr 25 years $12.5 Billion
• Wind is available about 36% of the time and solar about 26%. Renewables need
to charge batteries to supply electricity 24/7.
• Kaui (Hawaii) is planning to use Tesla grid-level storage batteries and has a contract
for $0.145/KWhr for 20 years. This is a small installation, but it can be used as a
comparison. Telsa also offers grid level batteries for sale at $2.5 million/MW.
Over 60 years, the standard license period for nuclear reactors,
nuclear provides the largest return on investment (ROI) (Emery et al)

46. 10/9/15
www.
CitizensClimateLobby.org
- Revenue neutral
carbon fee with
dividend. (RNCFD)
-Dividend would
be returned to
everyone.
-Stimulating
economy &
creating 2 million
jobs.

47. ‘A Conservative Climate Solution’: Republican Group Calls for
Carbon Tax (FEE & DIVIDEND ?) By JOHN SCHWARTZ FEB. 7, 2017
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/07/science/a-conservative-climate-solution-
republican-group-calls-for-carbon-tax.html?smid=fb-share&_r=0
A group of Republican elder statesmen is calling for a tax on carbon emissions to
fight climate change. The group, led by former Secretary of State James A. Baker
III, with former Secretary of State George P. Shultz and Henry M. Paulson Jr., a
former secretary of the Treasury, says that taxing carbon pollution produced by
burning fossil fuels is “a conservative climate solution” based on free market
principles.
Mr. Baker is scheduled to meet on Wednesday with White House officials,
including Vice President Mike Pence, Jared Kushner, the senior adviser to the
president, and Gary D. Cohn, director of the National Economic Council, as well as
Ivanka Trump
Mr. Baker who is skeptical about human caused global warming said. “ I do
accept that the risks are sufficiently great that we need to have an insurance
policy.”

48. Tillerson Led Exxon’s Shift on Climate Change;
Some Say ‘It Was All P.R.’
By JOHN SCHWARTZ DEC. 28, 2016
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/28/business/energy-
environment/rex-tillerson-secretary-of-state-
exxon.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-
column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0
Carbon taxes are a fee on fuel use, based on how much carbon dioxide that fuel
puts into the atmosphere.
“As a businessman, it is hard to speak favorably about any
new tax,” Mr. Tillerson told reporters in his speech at the Woodrow Wilson
International Center for Scholars. But, he said, it was “a more direct, a more
transparent and a more effective approach” than an alternative gaining support
in Congress known as cap and trade, which would set an upper limit on carbon
dioxide emissions and then rely on a permit trading system to meet the target.

49. CONCLUSIONS
1. SEA LEVELS RISE COULD RISE BY 1 METER IN 2050.
WILL THERE BE ENOUGH TIME TO PREVENT A RISE TO 5
METERS (18 FT) IN 2058?
2. WEATHER EXTREMES ARE INCREASING
-Wet areas are becoming wetter: Floods, Snow
-Dry areas, drier: Droughts, Wildfires
3. CAN NEW SOLAR, WIND, AND NUCLEAR BE
DEPLOYED FAST ENOUGH?
4. EXPEDITE PHASING-OUT FOSSIL FUEL BURNING
WITH CARBON FEE & DIVIDEND 49

50. What a wonderful world this would be if
only we gave it a chance.
If all of us loved each other, we would
solve lots more problems. LOVE, Baby LOVE!