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6 Phases of a Business Cycle
Sales
Growth
Condition Chart Value Drivers Marketing
Investment
/ R&D Competition Pricing
Operating
Issues Workforce
1.
EXPANSION
Increasing
Sales
(above the
line)
Revenue
growth focus:
maximize
target margin
growth, gain
access to new
capital
Stress the
uniqueness of
the product or
service to a
small group of
customers
Internal funds
start to catch
up with
investment
choices
Anticipate more
new entrants
joining the
industry and
more intense
competition
For new
products,
price at a
premium
when
there’s little
competition
As production
increases to
meet demand,
manufacturers
are able to
reduce their
costs through
economies of
scale
Maintain a
workforce
that will
deliver
quality
products or
services in an
efficient
manner
2.
PEAK
Flat Sales
(above the
line)
Quality of
growth:
optimize
operating
margin
Differentiate
firm’s offerings
from
competitors
Launch newly
focused
marketing
campaign
Internal funds
available
exceed
investment
choices
Anticipate
competitors’
increased sales
activity to win
away existing
business clients
Hold pricing
steady
Anticipate
increased
supply chain
pressure
Ensure product
quality remains
consistent
Protect the
firm’s ability
to meet
demand with
adequate
throughput
3.
DECLINE
Decreasing
Sales
(above the
line)
Market
segmentation:
pick a sub-set
of the market
that you can
organize your
sales efforts
around
Stress the
unique features
and benefits of
products or
service
Continue to
differentiate
the firm’s
offerings from
competitors
Few
investment
choices may
be good now
Anticipate
competitors’
efforts to protect
their best
customers
Anticipate
lower prices
as a result of
increasing
competition
Establish routes
to market will
become more
efficient
Evaluate
workforce for
productivity
and
effectiveness
4.
RECESSION
Decreasing
Sales
(below the
line)
Become an
industry leader:
seek to
distinguish
yourself in your
industry
Compete on
quality to
separate firm’s
products or
service from
other low-cost
offerings
Divest
investment in
non-
performing
products and
services
Anticipate a
shake-out in the
industry
Don’t lose
business
because of
price
Maximize cost
savings with
operating
improvements,
begin to trim
less effective
operations
Trim
workforce in
anticipation
of lower sales
& production
activity
5.
TROUGH
Flat Sales
(below the
line)
Acquisitions:
find a business
that can be
improved
Explore low-
cost / low-price
strategy to
increase the
volume of sales
and make
profits from
inventory turns
Evaluate
product
service
demand
changes and
how to
capitalize on
new growth
M&A
consolidations
will be the norm
as firms try other
strategies to
continue to be
competitive or
grow through
acquisition or
diversification
Maintain
prices that
exceed
variable cost
of
production
Downsize or
close non-
performing
operations
Don’t replace
workforce
who’ve
resigned or
left company
6.
RECOVERY
Increasing
Sales
(below the
line)
Leverage
partnerships:
selectively
collaborate to
create industry
strength
Work to
establish a
niche for
dominance
within an
industry during
this phase
Investment
needs vastly
exceed funds.
Invest limited
funds with
care.
Anticipate
competitors’
moves to
increase new
business
development
activity
Begin to
increase
pricing to
regain gross
margins
Apply
technology and
linking suppliers
and customers
in a tight supply
chain to
improve
efficiency
Hire slowly
and select
only those
who are the
right fit for
the
anticipated
growth cycle
0
100
200
1 3 5 7 9 11 13
Sales Growth Chart
12/12 Avg
Baseline
0
100
200
1 3 5 7 9 11 13
Sales Growth Chart
12/12 Avg
Baseline
0
100
200
1 3 5 7 9 11 13
Sales Growth Chart
12/12 Avg
Baseline
0
100
200
1 3 5 7 9 11 13
Sales Growth Chart
12/12 Avg
Baseline
0
100
200
1 3 5 7 9 11 13
Sales Growth Chart
12/12 Avg
Baseline
0
100
200
1 3 5 7 9 11 13
Sales Growth Chart
12/12 Avg
Baseline

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6 Phases of a Business Cycle - Hawkeye Consulting Advisors - Allen Pratt 630-800-7545

  • 1. Contact Allen Pratt @ 630-800-7545 or allen.k.pratt@gmail.com 6 Phases of a Business Cycle Sales Growth Condition Chart Value Drivers Marketing Investment / R&D Competition Pricing Operating Issues Workforce 1. EXPANSION Increasing Sales (above the line) Revenue growth focus: maximize target margin growth, gain access to new capital Stress the uniqueness of the product or service to a small group of customers Internal funds start to catch up with investment choices Anticipate more new entrants joining the industry and more intense competition For new products, price at a premium when there’s little competition As production increases to meet demand, manufacturers are able to reduce their costs through economies of scale Maintain a workforce that will deliver quality products or services in an efficient manner 2. PEAK Flat Sales (above the line) Quality of growth: optimize operating margin Differentiate firm’s offerings from competitors Launch newly focused marketing campaign Internal funds available exceed investment choices Anticipate competitors’ increased sales activity to win away existing business clients Hold pricing steady Anticipate increased supply chain pressure Ensure product quality remains consistent Protect the firm’s ability to meet demand with adequate throughput 3. DECLINE Decreasing Sales (above the line) Market segmentation: pick a sub-set of the market that you can organize your sales efforts around Stress the unique features and benefits of products or service Continue to differentiate the firm’s offerings from competitors Few investment choices may be good now Anticipate competitors’ efforts to protect their best customers Anticipate lower prices as a result of increasing competition Establish routes to market will become more efficient Evaluate workforce for productivity and effectiveness 4. RECESSION Decreasing Sales (below the line) Become an industry leader: seek to distinguish yourself in your industry Compete on quality to separate firm’s products or service from other low-cost offerings Divest investment in non- performing products and services Anticipate a shake-out in the industry Don’t lose business because of price Maximize cost savings with operating improvements, begin to trim less effective operations Trim workforce in anticipation of lower sales & production activity 5. TROUGH Flat Sales (below the line) Acquisitions: find a business that can be improved Explore low- cost / low-price strategy to increase the volume of sales and make profits from inventory turns Evaluate product service demand changes and how to capitalize on new growth M&A consolidations will be the norm as firms try other strategies to continue to be competitive or grow through acquisition or diversification Maintain prices that exceed variable cost of production Downsize or close non- performing operations Don’t replace workforce who’ve resigned or left company 6. RECOVERY Increasing Sales (below the line) Leverage partnerships: selectively collaborate to create industry strength Work to establish a niche for dominance within an industry during this phase Investment needs vastly exceed funds. Invest limited funds with care. Anticipate competitors’ moves to increase new business development activity Begin to increase pricing to regain gross margins Apply technology and linking suppliers and customers in a tight supply chain to improve efficiency Hire slowly and select only those who are the right fit for the anticipated growth cycle 0 100 200 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 Sales Growth Chart 12/12 Avg Baseline 0 100 200 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 Sales Growth Chart 12/12 Avg Baseline 0 100 200 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 Sales Growth Chart 12/12 Avg Baseline 0 100 200 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 Sales Growth Chart 12/12 Avg Baseline 0 100 200 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 Sales Growth Chart 12/12 Avg Baseline 0 100 200 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 Sales Growth Chart 12/12 Avg Baseline