5A_3_GIS based spatial modelling for improving the sustainability of aggregates mineral supply in the uk

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This document summarizes a PhD thesis that uses GIS and spatial modeling to analyze the sustainability of aggregate mineral supply in the UK. The research aims to: 1) Build a GIS model to represent consumption, supply, and transport networks of aggregates. 2) Develop a spatial interaction model to simulate aggregate flows via different transport methods. 3) Evaluate environmental and social impacts like carbon footprint to compare policy scenarios for aggregate delivery.

GIS Based Spatial Modelling for Improving the Sustainability of Aggregates Mineral Supply in the UK Supervisors: Prof. Mark Birkin, Prof. Graham Clarke, Ms. Fiona McEvoy, Mr. Andrew Bloodworth Chengchao Zuo School of Geography University of Leeds

What are aggregates ? Primary Aggregates ,[object Object]

Methodology Spatial Interaction Model Network Analysis Other GIS-T Techniques Multi-criteria Evaluation

Modelling the Aggregates Flows in England and Wales Crushed Rock inter-regional flows, 2005

[object Object],Population at district level Demand for Aggregates at Region Level

Data Preparation – supply apportionment and transport network

Quarry 1 Client 1 Rail Depot 1 Client 3 Quarry 2 Client 4 Quarry 3 Client 2 Rail Depot 2 Client 5 Quarry 4 Railway Road Transportation Model An example of rail + road inter-modal transport system

Railway Transport Quarry 1(Rail linked) Quarry 2 (Non-Rail linked) Road Transport Rail Depots District 1 District 2 District 3 District 4 Transportation Model x dij = min (drij, diij) + e ; diij = RC * dio + TC + doj diij: distance equivalent via inter-modal transport ( +∞ if unavailable) drij: distance via road transport dio: rail delivery distance between quarry (i) and rail depots (o) doj: road delivery distance between rail depots (o) to district (j) RC: relative cost of rail transport TC: transhipment cost equivalent e: error weighted by radius of the district

Approach 1: Fixed Conversion Rate Tonne-kms  (Energy Consumption)  Carbon Emission Approach 2: Transport Model Volume of aggregates Delivery distance Vehicle type Carbon emission Vehicle aging Fuel consumption ......

[object Object],TC = 40000 RC = 0.3 Beta = 5

[object Object],Marine Sand & Gravel Crushed Rock Land-won Sand & Gravel

Modeling Result – Key statistics Observed Modelled SRMSE = 0.220 R-square = 0.996 (Land-won Sand & Gravel)

What-if Analyses ,[object Object],[object Object]

Scenario 2 – Improving the sustainability of aggregates supply RC=0.3 TC=40000 RC=0.13 TC=40000 RC=0.13 TC=40000

Scenario 3 – Closing down biggest quarries

Scenario 3 – Variation of CO2 Emissions 2005 2045

More sophisticated carbon emission model

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5A_3_GIS based spatial modelling for improving the sustainability of aggregates mineral supply in the uk

1. GIS Based Spatial Modelling for Improving the Sustainability of Aggregates Mineral Supply in the UK Supervisors: Prof. Mark Birkin, Prof. Graham Clarke, Ms. Fiona McEvoy, Mr. Andrew Bloodworth Chengchao Zuo School of Geography University of Leeds

3. Land-won Sand &Gravel

5. Regional Level

7. Methodology Spatial Interaction Model Network Analysis Other GIS-T Techniques Multi-criteria Evaluation

8. Modelling the Aggregates Flows in England and Wales Crushed Rock inter-regional flows, 2005

10. Data Preparation – supply apportionment and transport network

11. Quarry 1 Client 1 Rail Depot 1 Client 3 Quarry 2 Client 4 Quarry 3 Client 2 Rail Depot 2 Client 5 Quarry 4 Railway Road Transportation Model An example of rail + road inter-modal transport system

12. Railway Transport Quarry 1(Rail linked) Quarry 2 (Non-Rail linked) Road Transport Rail Depots District 1 District 2 District 3 District 4 Transportation Model x dij = min (drij, diij) + e ; diij = RC * dio + TC + doj diij: distance equivalent via inter-modal transport ( +∞ if unavailable) drij: distance via road transport dio: rail delivery distance between quarry (i) and rail depots (o) doj: road delivery distance between rail depots (o) to district (j) RC: relative cost of rail transport TC: transhipment cost equivalent e: error weighted by radius of the district

13.

14. Approach 1: Fixed Conversion Rate Tonne-kms  (Energy Consumption)  Carbon Emission Approach 2: Transport Model Volume of aggregates Delivery distance Vehicle type Carbon emission Vehicle aging Fuel consumption ......

15.

16.

17. Modeling Result – Key statistics Observed Modelled SRMSE = 0.220 R-square = 0.996 (Land-won Sand & Gravel)

18.

19.

20. Scenario 2 – Improving the sustainability of aggregates supply RC=0.3 TC=40000 RC=0.13 TC=40000 RC=0.13 TC=40000

21.

22. Scenario 3 – Closing down biggest quarries

23. Scenario 3 – Variation of CO2 Emissions 2005 2045

24.

25. More sophisticated carbon emission model

26. Social-Economical Impact

27. Environmental Impact

28.

29. Questions? GISRUK UCL, London 16-04-2010

Editor's Notes

The planning system being reviewed again!Planning White Paper – Planning for a Sustainable Future‘climate change considerations should be integrated into all spatial planning concerns,including transport, housing, economic growth and regeneration, water supply andwaste management, and not considered separately’We are committed to protecting and enhancing the environment and tackling climate change - one of the most serious threats facing us today ----- BGS

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