1. “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” George Santayana<br /> This quote could serve as introduction to both “The Next Hundred Million,” by Joel Kotkin and “Second World,” by Parag Khanna. These conjectural works, heavily influenced by the subjective perspective of the authors, examine past and current social, cultural and economic factors and attempt to predict world affairs in fifty years. While both books are well researched and provide insightful opinions of what the future may hold, their tone and outlooks are very different.<br />“Second World,” by Parag Khanna<br /> Currently living in New York City, Parag Khanna is truly a “world citizen.” Born in India and raised in the U.A.E., he is a PhD in international relations, having studied in the U.S.A., Germany and the United Kingdom. Speaking six languages, he has served or directed several major think-tanks and provided insight to President Obama’s campaign. His opinions have appeared in many major media outlets, including The New York Times, CNN and Al Jazeera.<br /> Khanna is of the new breed of international thinkers. He makes full use of media connectivity through his website, Facebook and Twitter accounts. This unprecedented level of communication and connectivity is one of the main factors shaping the changing world. Changes facing the world today are the main focus of Parag Khanna’s lifework.<br /> He states the world and the future are influenced by three major players, China, the European Union and the United States as they interact with nations having characteristics of both developed and third-world countries, his so-named “Second World.” Each of the three has their own diplomatic style in advancing their economic and cultural views throughout the world. China, he says uses consultation, the E.U. favors consensus and the U.S. uses coalitions to lead in the twenty-first century.<br /> Khanna clearly feels the E.U. and China’s world leadership is ascendant and will eclipse that of the U.S., a nation he sees as an arrogant, decaying imperial power. His biases, ignoring or belittling the negatives of China and the E.U. while decrying the sins of the U.S. reduced this book from an objective analysis of international relations to a biased Op-Ed piece.<br /> <br /> His 320 page book studies the interactions of dozens of nations and hundreds of cultures. Yet his conclusion, titled, “The Search for Equilibrium in a Non-American World” outlines only the inevitable and to his mind, deserved collapse of the U.S. Parag Khanna seems more an elite theorist enjoying the comforts and privileges of the U.S. (the liberal democracy he criticizes) and less the visionary, “world thinker” he portrays. For all his knowledge of countries and cultures, he seems to have missed the long-standing dynamic synergy of the U.S. that has caused it to continually surprise and confound the world throughout its history.<br />“The Next Hundred Million,” by Joel Kotkin<br /> Interestingly, that dynamism is a main focus of Joel Kotkin’s “The Next Hundred Million” a work detailing his vision of the U.S. in the next 50 years. Joel Kotkin is a UC Berkeley educated professor of urban development, a fellow at a London think tank and a columnist for the New York Times. In place of predicted decline, Joel Kotkin sees the future U.S. as, “…the youngest, most vibrant country in the advanced industrial world,” albeit a vastly changed nation and culture from today.<br /> China and the E.U. have declining population rates. Kotkin points out this means a reduced labor force at the same time as a growing number of care-requiring elderly. He also historically links low fertility with socioeconomic decline, noting, “The desire to have children is an affirmation of faith in the future...” And while American birth rates have dropped, Kotkin sees a population increase, largely through immigration.<br /> A large percent of that next hundred million will be Chinese and Hispanics. Kotkin sees them moving here for reasons recognizable to all American immigrants, near-unlimited space and the opportunity of individual success.<br /> Kotkin warns that the U.S. of 2050 will be virtually unrecognizable from today. He foresees a polyglot racial mix, with some 40% to 50% non-white. Large corporations and employers will be replaced by many small companies and individuals, many working from home.<br /> These new citizens will be drawn to the vast, open spaces America still possesses. Kotkin sees them re-filling the heartland and moving to the suburbs so looked down upon by many people raised there. <br />Kotkin feels the re-invigoration of these areas will occur for the same reasons the nativist fears of the 1800s were not realized.<br /> America has greatly benefitted in the long run by the unique circumstances found here by most immigrants. Immigrants cluster together, building connections through family, businesses, churches and social institutions. This creates a synergy, a classic “the whole is greater than the sum of its parts,” that confounds America’s critics and prognosticators.<br /> Kotkin cites Fuji Kamiya, a Japanese professor at Tokyo’s Keio University. Kamiya described a unique American quality that acted as a “reserve power that allows it to overcome both the inadequacies of its leaders and the foibles of its citizens.” Kamiya called this phenomena sokojikara.<br /> Kotkin sees this sokojikara based on open immigration, an innovative, entrepreneurial economy and vast natural resources. As these three factors remain largely unchanged from the 1800s (relative to the rest of the world) this deep-rooted synergy should continue for these newest of citizens.<br /> People seeking opportunity have always felt America offered it in ways their homeland could or would not. Joel Kotkin’s “Next Hundred Million” feels these opportunities still abound and the immigrants seeking them will revitalize America in the 21st century even as they forever change the nation. He and the current and future immigrants see this in a way that Parag Khanna and many native-born critics do not.<br /> Used book sales are filled with ridiculous, dated predictions of what was to come. They were all written with the surety and fervor that only self-convinced theorists can muster. Time will tell whether Parag Khanna’s “Second World” or Joel Kotkin’s “The Next Hundred Million” is more accurate. After an analysis based on history, Joel Kotkin’s vision seems more likely.<br />