CTP’s Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of the al Qaeda network. The al Qaeda network update includes detailed assessments of al Qaeda’s affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and the Maghreb and Sahel. Below are the top three takeaways from the week: 1. Al Qaeda associate Jama’a Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen (JNIM) attacked a resort near Bamako, the capital of Mali, signaling the possible return of a terror campaign targeting West African sites frequented by Western officials, tourists, and expatriates. Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and affiliated groups conducted a series of attacks on hotels in Mali, Burkina Faso, and the Ivory Coast in late 2015 and early 2016. Four al Qaeda-linked groups merged to form JNIM in March 2017 and have since escalated an insurgency against Malian, French, and UN forces in northern Mali. 2. The Qatar diplomatic crisis is reverberating in the Horn of Africa region. Qatari peacekeeping troops withdrew from the contested border between Djibouti and Eritrea on June 14 after Eritrea severed diplomatic ties with Qatar. Eritrea deployed troops to the contested border for the first time since the 2008 border war, prompting Djibouti to place its military on alert. 3. Iranian support for the al Houthi-Saleh faction threatens navigational freedom in the Red Sea. Al Houthi-Saleh forces fired a surface-to-ship missile at an Emirati vessel near Mokha port on June 15, wounding one crewmember. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) or Lebanese Hezbollah likely provided technical support for past shore-to-ship attacks, including the October 2016 attacks on a U.S. warship near the Bab al Mandab Strait.

1. AEI’s Critical Threats Project
Update and Assessment
June 20, 2017

2. 2
TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS
2 31
1) An al Qaeda affiliate in Mali may resume an attack campaign targeting
tourist sites in West Africa.
2) The withdrawal of Qatari peacekeepers ignited tensions on the contested
Eritrean-Djiboutian border.
3) The al Houthi-Saleh faction’s missile capabilities, which are facilitated by
Iran, threaten navigational freedom in the Red Sea.

3. 3
| ASSESSMENTAL QAEDA
Al Qaeda Network
Senior al Qaeda leadership seeks to influence Salafi-jihadi groups in Syria. Senior al Qaeda
leader Sami al Oraidi warned against nationalism in Syria, echoing four al Qaeda leadership
statements on the same topic in the past six weeks. Al Qaeda’s attempt to shape the Syrian
battlefield is part of its effort to lead the global Salafi-jihadi movement. Al Qaeda emir Ayman
al Zawahiri recently characterized the entire Muslim world as fighting a multi-front war.
Outlook: Al Qaeda will compete with other actors for influence over Syrian armed opposition
groups.
Tehrik-e-Taliban, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda Associates
Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) increased the frequency of attacks against Indian security forces in
the disputed Kashmir region and released propaganda calling for greater youth involvement
in attacks on India. LeT cross-border attacks exacerbate tensions between India and
Pakistan.
Outlook: The pace of LeT attacks will increase in the Kashmir region, but their effectiveness
will remain limited.

4. 4
| ASSESSMENT:
Political
A UN Security Council statement on Yemen signaled no significant changes to the stalled
diplomatic process. The GCC rift with Qatar disrupted the anti-al Houthi fight in central
Yemen when tribal forces withdrew from the front to protest a Saudi terror designation.
Outlook: Russia may exploit the deadlocked UN process to position itself as a broker.
Security
The Yemeni civil war threatens freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, a critical shipping
lane. Al Houthi-Saleh forces attacked an Emirati vessel with a surface-to-ship missile near
Mokha port. Iranian personnel or proxies likely supplied or modified the missile.
Outlook: Iran will sustain its support for al Houthi-Saleh missile capabilities.
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in Yemen
AQAP is cooperating with ISIS militants on a tactical level against al Houthi-Saleh forces
while presenting its ideology as more palatable to the Yemeni population.
Outlook: AQAP’s influence over Yemeni tribal militias will increase, especially in al Bayda
governorate.
GULF OF ADEN YEMEN

5. 5
| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:GULF OF ADEN YEMEN
1) 14 JUN: Al Houthi-
Saleh forces fired
on an Emirati ship.
2) 16 JUN: A U.S.
airstrike killed
AQAP militants in
Shabwah
governorate.
3) 17 JUN: A Saudi-
led coalition
warplane struck a
market in Sa’ada
governorate.
4) 17 JUN: AQAP
militants killed al
Houthi-Saleh forces
in al Bayda
governorate.
5) 18 JUN: ISIS killed
al Houthi-Saleh
fighters in al Bayda
governorate.
3
5
4
1
2

6. 6
| ASSESSMENT:
Political
The withdrawal of Qatari forces exacerbated tensions on the Djiboutian-Eritrean border.
Djibouti placed its military on alert after Eritrea sent troops to the contested region for the
first time since the 2008 border war. Eritrea severed diplomatic ties with Qatar on June 14.
Outlook: Djibouti may deploy military forces to the border to challenge Eritrea.
Security
Kenyan security forces prepared for al Shabaab attacks ahead of Eid celebrations. Kenyan
police arrested 85 al Shabaab militants in Nairobi and Mombasa. Police also seized assault
rifles and explosives. Al Shabaab attacked a civilian bus with an IED in Mandera, Kenya.
Outlook: Al Shabaab will maintain a high attack tempo along the Kenyan-Somali border.
Al Shabaab
Al Shabaab retaliated against Somali security operations by conducting two high-casualty
attacks on civilians in Mogadishu and raiding several military bases in southern Somalia.
Outlook: Al Shabaab will exploit the lifting of some security measures in Mogadishu to
conduct more attacks in the capital.
GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA

7. 7
| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA
4
13
2
5
1) 14 JUN: Al
Shabaab detonated
a SVBIED at Posh
Hotel in Hodan
district, Mogadishu.
2) 14 JUN: Qatar
withdrew troops
from the Eritrean-
Djiboutian border.
3) 16 JUN: Al
Shabaab detonated
an IED targeting a
civilian bus in
Mandera, Kenya.
4) 18 JUN: Kenyan
police arrested 80
al Shabaab
suspects in Nairobi.
5) 20 JUN: Al
Shabaab detonated
a VBIED in Wadajir
district, Mogadishu.

8. 8
| ASSESSMENT:
Political
Civilian leadership in Misrata city demonstrated intent to secure a political deal and end the
civil war. The Misrata Municipal Council banned the Benghazi Defense Brigades (BDB), a
militia coalition that includes jihadist groups, from using the city as a rear base. The BDB’s
main opponent is the Libyan National Army (LNA) led by Khalifa Haftar.
Outlook: Misratan leaders will strike a deal with Haftar to de-escalate the conflict.
Security
The Islamist insurgency in eastern Libya may re-emerge on dormant fronts as the LNA
moves to culminate the fight for Benghazi. Militants detonated a VBIED possibly targeting
LNA personnel in Ajdabiya.
Outlook: Militant groups will prioritize explosive attacks over controlling terrain in the east.
Ansar al Sharia and Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in Libya
ISIS may be responsible for an attempted suicide bombing targeting the oil export terminal at
al Sidra. ISIS attacks damaged infrastructure in Libya’s oil crescent region in early 2016.
Outlook: ISIS may resume an attack campaign to impede Libya’s economic recovery.
WEST AFRICA LIBYA

9. 9
| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA LIBYA
2 3
1
1) 16 JUN: Militants
detonated a VBIED
that injured two
people in Fallujah
district, Ajdabiya.
2) 16 JUN: Likely
BRSC snipers shot
two LNA soldiers in
Suq al Hout district,
Benghazi.
3) 19 JUN: The LNA
captured the
Wahda Bank main
office in Suq al
Hout district,
Benghazi.
4) 20 JUN: A suicide
bomber injured one
security officer near
the oil port in al
Sidra.
4

10. 10
| ASSESSMENT:
Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and ISIS in the Maghreb
Algerian security forces arrested and killed several suspected ISIS militants in northeastern
Algeria, possibly disrupting an attack plot in a region where the group has conducted small-
scale direct fire and explosive operations in the past. Popular protests in Morocco decreased
and are now contained in their area of origin in the country’s north.
Outlook: ISIS activity will remain limited to northeastern Algeria in the near term.
Associated Movements in the Sahel (JNIM, Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun, Boko Haram)
JNIM claimed responsibility for an assault on a Bamako resort on June 18 that killed five
people, the first such attack in Mali since 2015. This attack may signal the resumption of an
attack campaign targeting sites frequented by Westerners in West Africa.
The Boko Haram faction led by Abubakar Shekau is targeting population centers in
northeastern Nigeria in order to force security forces to take a defensive posture. The group
attacked several towns in Borno State on June 17 and 18.
Outlook: Specialized JNIM units will target tourist sites in West Africa while the bulk of
JNIM’s force continues the insurgency in northern Mali. Boko Haram will increase attacks on
towns on the periphery of its stronghold in the Sambisa Forest.
WEST AFRICA MAGHREB AND SAHEL

11. 11
| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA MAGHREB
2
3
1
1) 15 JUN: Protesters
clashed with
security forces in al
Hoceima, Morocco.
2) 16 JUN: A land
mine killed a
woman on Mount
Salloum, Tunisia.
3) 18 JUN: Algerian
forces killed and
captured militants
in Constantine,
Algeria.
4) 19 JUN: The
Algerian army
arrested a wanted
terrorist in El Oued,
Algeria.
4

12. 12
| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA SAHEL
2
3
1
1) 17 JUN: JNIM
militants attacked a
Malian Army post in
Tombouctou
region, Mali, killing
five soldiers.
2) 18 JUN: JNIM
militants stormed a
resort near
Bamako, Mali,
killing five civilians.
3) 18 JUN: Four
female Boko
Haram suicide
bombers attacked
refugee camps in
Borno State,
Nigeria, killing 17
civilians.

13. 13
ACRONYMS
African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)
al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)
al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)
Benghazi Defense Brigades (BDB)
Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council (BRSC)
Congress for Justice in Azawad (CJA)
Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)
Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)
Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)
Jama’a Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen (JNIM)
Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA)
Libyan National Army (LNA)
Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA)
United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)
Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)
National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)
The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)
Somalia National Army (SNA)
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

14. 14
Katherine Zimmerman
research manager
katherine.zimmerman@aei.org
(202) 888-6576
Marie Donovan
Iran analyst
marie.donovan@aei.org
(202) 888-6572
Heather Malacaria
program manager
heather.malacaria@aei.org
(202) 888-6575
Emily Estelle
al Qaeda analyst
emily.estelle@aei.org
(202) 888-6570
For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.
Frederick W. Kagan
director
fkagan@aei.org
(202) 888-6569