Governance and security breakdowns are destabilizing Libya as fighting intensifies in multiple cities. Militias in Tripoli are emboldened by poor governance and threaten to derail oil production. Elections under current conditions may lead armed groups to use violence to secure their interests. Additionally, ISIS militants have been spotted in the unsecured city of Sirte since being ousted in 2017.

1. 1
Threat Update: May 22, 2018
Iranian officials will likely ignore U.S. Secretary of State Mike
Pompeo’s May 21 demands of Iran to cease its ballistic missile
proliferation and destabilizing regional behavior. The regime considers
its regional proxy network and missile program to be key tenants of its
national security doctrine. Senior Iranian officials have noted that Iran’s
missile program is “non-negotiable.”
Iran
Governance and security breakdowns on multiple fronts are
destabilizing Libya as the international community pushes for elections
in the country. Active fighting in Sebha and Derna has heightened
longstanding grievances. Poor or absent governance is emboldening
militias in Tripoli, threatening to derail oil production, and setting conditions
for the return of ISIS to coastal Libya. Spoilers will likely resort to armed
conflict to secure their interests if elections occur under current conditions.
Libya

2. 2
Threat Update: May 22, 2018
ISIS in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) may gain recruits and popular
support from a cycle of communal violence in the Malian-Nigerien
border region. A Tuareg coalition fighting ISGS has broadly targeted the
Fulani ethnic group, allowing ISGS to bolster its credentials as a defender
of the Fulani community. ISGS has retaliated against Tuareg civilians. The
violence is escalating despite French efforts to prevent retaliatory attacks.
Yemen
Lingering divisions between the Hadi government and the UAE may
threaten cohesion within anti-al Houthi forces during a new Saudi-led
coalition push towards al Hudaydah port. Hadi government officials
accused the UAE of occupying Yemen following Emirati troop
deployments to Socotra Island. Prolonged tensions may hinder
cooperation between Emirati-backed forces and Hadi government forces
and undermine the coalition’s offensive on the Red Sea coast.
Sahel

3. Libya
3
Governance and security breakdowns cause
escalating violence across Libya
Wiam Aimade & Emily Estelle
20 MAY: The GNA expanded the mandate of
a Salafi militia on which it relies to secure key
parts of Tripoli. The militia, which is accused
of human rights violations, cracked down on
alleged Qaddafi loyalists in the capital.
20 MAY: A youth movement threatened
to shut down the Marada oilfields due to
insufficient government services.
17 MAY: Security sources reported the
presence of ISIS militants in Sirte city.
Sirte remains largely ungoverned and
unsecured since U.S.-backed forces
ousted ISIS in late 2017.
18 MAY: The LNA continued airstrikes
on Derna that have stoked local and
national backlash.
16 MAY: The GNA announced the creation
of a military brigade to secure Sebha after
the tribal forces fighting to control the city
rejected the GNA’s mediation efforts.
Sebha
Marada
Sirte

4. Yemen
4Tomás Padgett Perez
Divisions persist between the Hadi government
and the UAE
05 MAY: Hadi government Prime
Minister Ahmed Bin Daghir’s cabinet
denounced Emirati troop deployments to
Socotra Island as unjustified.
1
20 MAY: UAE Minister of State for
Foreign Affairs Anwar Gargash rejected
claims of Emirati occupation and
emphasized the UAE’s commitment to
defeating the al Houthi movement and
supporting the Hadi government.
17 MAY: Hadi government
Interior Minister Ahmed al Misri
suggested that parts of Yemen
are under Emirati occupation.
2
3
Present
Key
Hadi government Announcement
Protest
UAE Announcement
UAE Troop Movement

5. Sahel
5Reilly Andreasen & Emily Estelle
ISGS exacerbates communal violence in Mali-
Niger border region
present
MALI
NIGER
30 MAR: Gao region
29 MAR: Talataye
12 MAY: Takaghat
17 MAY: Menaka
27 APR: Awakassa
26 APR: Aklaz
01 MAY: Taylalene 27 APR: Ekrafane
18 MAY: In-Ates
01 APR: Abala

6. Acronym List
AMISOM: African Union Mission in Somalia
AQAP: al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
AQIM: al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
AQIS: al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent
BDB: Benghazi Defense Brigades
BRSC: Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council
CJA: Congress for Justice in Azawad
CMA: Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad
GATIA: Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group
ISIS: Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham
JNIM: Jama’a Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen
GNA: Libyan Government of National Accord
LNA: Libyan National Army
MAA: Arab Movement of Azawad
MINUSMA: United National Multidimensional
Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali
MNLA: National Movement for the Liberation of the
Azawad
MSCD: Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna
MUJAO: Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa
SNA: Somalia National Army
TTP: Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan
6

7. For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.
Contact us at criticalthreats@aei.org or (202) 888-6575.
Frederick W. Kagan
Director
Critical Threats Project Team
Katherine Zimmerman
Research Manager
Caroline Goodson
Program Manager
7
al Qaeda Analysts
Emily Estelle
Maher Farrukh
Iran Analysts
Marie Donovan
Mike Saidi
Nicholas Carl
Digital Content
Associate
Katie Donnelly