2017 November GrayReports - Demand Trends for Higher Education

GRAYREPORTS
Demand for Higher Education Programs
www.GrayAssociates.com
Results through November 2017

617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 2
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Who Is Gray?
Program and Market
Evaluation Data
Employment
Placement RatesStudent Demand
Demographics
Wages
Programs Price ProjectsPlace
§ Program Evaluation System
§ Program profiles
§ Program location
§ Market selection
§ Location selection
§ Campus consolidation
§ Price elasticity
§ Price positioning
§ Price optimization
§ Business strategy
§ Strategy implementation
§ Complex analytics
Advanced Analytics
Predictive Models
Geo-Analytics
Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders
Competition
Enhanced Crosswalks
Employer Requirements

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Agenda
1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Searches
1. National
2. Online and On-Campus
3. Degree Level
4. City and Program
2. Emerging Programs
3. Program of the Month: Medical Insurance Specialist
4. Summary

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0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National Inquiries
All Programs and Award Levels
2015 2016 2017
Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)
Total inquiry volumes have been declining for several years.
§ Declining unemployment rate
§ Falling interest in post-secondary education
§ Marketers shifting away from paid inquiries

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0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
National Inquiries
2015 2016 2017
Year-to-date inquiry volume is off by 10.3%.
§ November is the lowest volume of student inquiries for higher education in 2017.
§ The month is usually one of the two lowest of the year, but also fell below last year.
-10.3%

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0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
National Inquiries
2015 2016 2017
Year-over-year student inquiry volumes fell 7% in November 2017.
-7%

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80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2014
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2015
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Q4
2016
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
Q3
2017
Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends
(Indexed to Q1 2014)
Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates
In 2017, conversion rates are well above our 2014 baseline.
§ Q2 2017 beat the baseline by 30%.
§ Despite being immature, Q3 2017 is already 45% above the baseline.
1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry is received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March is counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the
application rate will rise for three months or more after the month in which the inquiries were received.
2. Total includes unknown source type.
+45

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Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)
For August inquiries, total conversions increased 15% year-over-year.
§ September, October, and November are poised to beat last year.
1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the
application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
Total Inquiry Conversions
2015 2016 2017
+15% YoY
Immature Months1

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2015 $43.10 $43.50 $43.70 $43.61 $43.81 $43.63 $45.07 $44.75 $45.24 $44.92 $44.67 $44.75
2016 $45.11 $45.91 $44.79 $44.85 $42.47 $44.97 $44.39 $44.53 $45.13 $44.77 $44.89 $45.49
2017 $45.38 $45.28 $45.50 $45.38 $45.52 $45.78 $45.22 $44.57 $45.09 $46.16 $45.90 $-
$30
$32
$34
$36
$38
$40
$42
$44
$46
$48
Average Price per Inquiry for PPI
Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry
The average price of an external inquiry is $45.90.
§ In November, prices were up 2.2% year-over-year.
§ Since March, the average price paid for an inquiry has been above 2016 levels.
Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.
+2.2%

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Student Inquiries: 10 Largest Inquiry Budgets
1.00
0.90
0.58
0.45
0.39
0.33
0.31
0.30
0.29
0.27
0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00
Medical/Clinical Assistant
Business Administration and Management
Medical Office Assistant
Psychology
Medical Insurance Coding Specialist
Health Care Management
HVAC Maintenance Technology
Medical Insurance Specialist
Web/Digital/Multimedia Design
Accounting Technology and Bookkeeping
10 Largest Inquiry Budgets
(November 2017)
Medical/Clinical Assistant now has the highest spending on inquiries.
Index to Max

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Student Inquiries: Budget Spending for 10 Largest Programs
40%
2%
0%
-4%
-10%
-14%
-15%
-22%
-28%
-33%
-45% -35% -25% -15% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45%
Medical Insurance Coding Specialist
Medical Office Assistant
Health Care Management
Psychology
HVAC Maintenance Technology
Web/Digital/Multimedia Design
Medical/Clinical Assistant
Accounting Technology and Bookkeeping
Business Administration and Management
November 2017 Inquiry Budget Trends
10 Programs With the Largest Budgets
§ The program with the largest budget, Medical Insurance Coding Specialist, increased 40% year-over-year.
In November, spending increased for two of the 10 programs with the largest budgets.
% Change YoY

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Agenda
1. National
3. Degree Level
4. City and Program
4. Summary

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Inquiries for Online Programs
Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeInquiries for online programs jumped 2% year-over-year in November.
§ After three consecutive declining months, volumes have grown in back-to-back months.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Inquiries
Inquiries for Online Programs
All Programs and Award Levels 2015 2016 2017
+2%

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Student Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs
Conversions for online higher education programs increased 17% in August.
§ This is the 13th consecutive increase in conversions.
§ September is on track to surpass last year.
1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January
conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.
Immature Months1
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs
2015 2016 2017
+17%
YoY

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Inquiries for On-Campus Programs
In 2017, inquiries for on-campus academic programs have fallen every month in 2017.
§ In November, inquiries for on-campus programs dropped 20% year-over-year.
2012
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Inquiries
Inquiries for On-Campus Programs
2015 2016 2017
-20% YoY

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Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs
Conversions for on-campus programs fell 6% year-over-year in July.
§ This marks the 12th consecutive month of declining conversions.
§ After an 18% drop in July, August was only down 6% when compared to 2016 levels.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs
2015 2016 2017
-6% YoY
1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January
conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.
Immature Months1

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Agenda
1. National
3. Degree Level
4. City and Program
4. Summary

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Inquiry Volumes by Degree – Year-Over-Year Change
Bachelor’s degrees were the fastest-growing degree level.
§ The higher degree levels continued to outperform lower-level degrees.
-30%
-17%
3%
7%
24%
-35% -25% -15% -5% 5% 15% 25%
Associate's degree
Undergraduate certificate
Master's degree
Doctor's degree
Bachelor's degree
Change in Inquiries
November 2017 YoY

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Agenda
1. National
3. Degree Level
4. City and Program
4. Summary

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Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities
All of The Big 5 Cities shrank year-over-year.
§ Chicago was down the most in October (-12%), but shrank the least in November.
§ The other four cities performed worse this month than they did in October.
-17%
-9%
9%
1%
-29%
-4%
-8% -8%
-11% -11%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
Chicago, IL Los Angeles, CA Philadelphia, PA New York, NY Houston, TX
Five Cities With the Most Inquiries Since January 2012
Year-over-Year Change in November Inquiries
2016 YoY % Change 2017 YoY % Change
Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.

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The Big 5 Programs: November Growth
All of The Big 5 Programs were down year-over-year in November.
-2%
-5% -5%
-12%
-20%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
Business Admin:
Bachelor's +
Medical Assistant Criminal Justice Registered Nursing Business Admin:
Associate's
Five Largest Programs Since January 2012
2017 YoY % Change

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84%
41%
31%
26%
20%
0%
50%
100%
Human Services Medical Insurance
Coding Specialist
Counseling
Psychology
Health Sciences,
General
Christian Studies
The Fast 5 Programs
2017 YoY % Change
The Fast 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth
All five of the fastest-growing programs1 grew 20% or more.
§ Human Services and Christian Studies are both repeats from last month.
§ Healthcare programs continue to be a common growth area based on student interest.
1. Includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.

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Agenda
1. National
3. Degree Level
4. City and Program
4. Summary

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IPEDS Completions
Business is the largest program, four related programs are also among the 20 largest.
285
278
237
133
108
85
82
74
51
47
45
44
42
41
41
41
39
39
38
37
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Business Admin. and Mgmt
Liberal Arts
Registered Nursing
Psychology
General Studies
Biology/Biological Sciences
Associate's in Business
Accounting
Social Work
Finance
English Language and Lit.
Criminal Justice
Speech Communication and Rhetoric
Political Science and Gov't
Marketing/Marketing Mgmt
Economics
Mechanical Engineering
Elementary Education and Teaching
Law
Sociology
20 Largest Programs
2016 Completions (000s)
Business Related
Health & Human Service
Science
Liberal Arts Related
Criminal Justice
Law
Source: Gray Associates, IPEDS National completions for award levels Associate’s, Bachelor’s, Master’s and Doctoral.

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IPEDS Completions
Seven of the largest programs are in Liberal Arts and related fields.
285
278
237
133
108
85
82
74
51
47
45
44
42
41
41
41
39
39
38
37
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Liberal Arts
Registered Nursing
Psychology
General Studies
Accounting
Social Work
Finance
Criminal Justice
Economics
Law
Sociology
20 Largest Programs
Business Related
Science
Criminal Justice
Law

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IPEDs Completions
Surprisingly, only two Healthcare programs make the top 20.
285
278
237
133
108
82
74
51
47
45
42
41
41
41
39
37
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Liberal Arts
Registered Nursing
Psychology
General Studies
Accounting
Social Work
Finance
Criminal Justice
Economics
Law
Sociology
20 Largest Programs
Business Related
Science
Criminal Justice
Law

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IPEDS Completions
Science, Criminal Justice, and Law had one program each in the top 20.
Science
285
278
237
133
108
85
82
74
51
47
45
44
42
41
41
41
39
39
37
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Liberal Arts
Registered Nursing
Psychology
General Studies
Accounting
Social Work
Finance
Criminal Justice
Economics
Law
Sociology
20 Largest Programs
Business Related
Science
Criminal Justice
Law
Teaching

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Student Demand: Google Search
Students searched most frequently for Business Administration programs in Q3 2017.
§ 10 Healthcare programs were among the 25 most-frequently searched.
§ Trades took five of the 25 slots.
2,034
1,309
1,178
1,124
1,118
1,034
861
779
719
713
606
592
542
541
512
505
499
473
457
445
437
386
374
373
370
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
Cosmetology
Nursing Assistant/Patient Care Aide
Accounting
Registered Nursing
Medical Assistant
Law
Commercial Truck and Bus Driver
Criminal Justice
Licensed Practical Nurse
Psychology
Chemistry
Welding Technology/Welder
Education
Culinary Arts/Chef Training
Dental Hygiene/Hygienist
Public Relations/Image Management
Electrical/Electronics Engin'g
Physical Therapy/Therapist
Bible/Biblical Studies
Physician Assistant
Human Resources Management
EMT Paramedic
Phlebotomy Tech/Phlebotomist
Osteopathic Medicine/Osteopathy
25 Largest Programs
Google Search Volume (000s)
Source: Gray Associates Data on Google Search Volumes for 200 largest programs in the US. Timeframe: Q3 2017
Business Related
Science
Criminal Justice and Law
Trades
Engineering and Other

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Agenda
1. National
3. Degree Level
4. City and Program
4. Summary

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Program Scorecard: Student Demand
Medical Insurance Coding Specialist has strong student demand.

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Program Scorecard: Student Demand
Medical Insurance Coding Specialist growth is more uncertain: inquiries are up, but search and completions are
down.

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Program Scorecard: Competition
There is above-average competition, much of it from online programs.

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Program Scorecard: Employment and Fit
There is a large number of job postings, but the need for formal education is unclear and wages are low.

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Medical Insurance Specialist: Job Postings
After growing each year since 2012, Job Postings are likely to finish below 2016.
78,342
95,035
105,782
147,158 149,456
119,780
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD
Job
Postings
Job Postings
Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. December 1, 2016-November 30, 2017
SOCs: Insurance Claims and Policy Processing Clerks (43-9041) and Medical Records and Health Information Technicians (29-2071) were used in this analysis.

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Medical Insurance Specialist: Salary
Salaries are typically less than $50,000 for Medical Insurance Specialist-related jobs.
10,921
7,331
3,482
2,196
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000
Less than $35,000
$35,000 to $49,999
$50,000 to $74,999
More than $75,000
Salary Distribution (Advertised)
§ The mean salary is $44,000.
§ The median salary is $36,000.
Note: Most job postings do not include salary data.
Number of Postings Citing the Salary Level

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Medical Insurance Specialist: Education (Minimum Advertised)
Among job postings that specify education, nearly half cite high school vocational training.
45%
31%
24%
0%
0%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
High school or vocational training
Associate's degree
Bachelor's degree
Master's degree
Doctoral degree
Most-Frequently Cited Minimum Education

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Medical Insurance Specialist: Employer Requirements
Many jobs require communication and other general skills, this one is focused on records
management.
0.99
0.99
0.95
0.80
0.80
0.79
0.75
0.64
0.64
0.61
0.61
0.59
0.57
0.56
0.53
0.43
0.43
0.43
0.42
0.42
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10
Process medical records
Take messages, notes, shorthand, and dictation
Maintain dental or medical records
Document medical prognosis
Maintain record of medication or equipment dispensed to patient
Transcribe spoken or written information
Process medical billing information
Index information resources
Process healthcare paperwork
Manage clinical or social case records
Prepare official health documents or records
Retrieve files or charts
Record medical history
Maintain customer and account records
Record vital statistics or other health information
Maintain medical facility records
Maintain personnel records
Maintain repair or maintenance records
Organize individual, group, or organizational account invoices
Prepare correspondence relating to financial discrepancies
Medical Insurance Specialist: Primary Work Activities
Fit with Job
Low Fit with Job HighSource: SkillsEngine, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
CIPs: Medical Insurance Coding Specialist (51.0713)

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Medical Insurance Specialist: Tools Employees Need to Know
Medical Insurance Specialist workers need strong skills in office technology.
§ Microsoft Office comprises five of the 18 tools Medical Insurance Specialist workers need to know.
99
99
99
99
99
76
76
76
76
76
76
76
76
76
76
73
73
73
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Healthcare common procedure coding system HCPCS software
Microsoft Excel
Microsoft Word
Web browser software
Word processing software
Desktop computers
Laser facsimile machines
Medical condition coding software
Medical procedure coding software
MEDITECH software
Microsoft Access
Microsoft Office software
Scanners
10-key calculators
Microsoft PowerPoint
Billing software
Electronic medical record EMR software
Tablet computers
Tools Employees Need to Know
Low Fit with Job High
Source: SkillsEngine, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
CIPs: Medical Insurance Coding Specialist (51.0713)

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Competitors: Medical Insurance Specialist
Most of the market leaders are for-profits with Certificate programs.
Campus Sector State
Award
Level 2014 2015 2016
Allen School-Phoenix Private for-profit, 2-year AZ Certificate 375 623 414
Florida Technical College Private for-profit, 4-year or above FL Certificate 149 134 228
Ivy Tech Community College Public, 2-year IN Certificate 132 194 209
Grantham University Private for-profit, 4-year or above KS Associates 43 141 200
American Career College-Los
Angeles Private for-profit, 2-year CA Certificate 155 124 125
Bryant & Stratton College-Online Private for-profit, 4-year or above NY Associates 33 58 117
American Career College-Ontario Private for-profit, 2-year CA Certificate 93 86 113
Southern Careers Institute-San
Antonio Private for-profit, less-than 2-year TX Certificate 53 109 99
American Career College-Anaheim Private for-profit, 2-year CA Certificate 95 99 96
UEI College-Bakersfield Private for-profit, less-than 2-year CA Certificate 0 84 89
Kaplan College-Las Vegas Private for-profit, 2-year NV Certificate 83 89 83
Everett Community College Public, 2-year WA Certificate 75 8 81
UEI College-Fresno Private for-profit, less-than 2-year CA Certificate 0 65 77
Herzing University-Madison Private for-profit, 4-year or above WI Certificate 85 101 76
Kaplan College-San Antonio-Ingram Private for-profit, 2-year TX Certificate 96 78 68
American Career College-Long
Beach Private for-profit, less-than 2-year CA Certificate 47 89 66
Drexel University Private not-for-profit, 4-year or above PA Certificate 33 30 63
Rasmussen College-Minnesota Private for-profit, 4-year or above MN Certificate 32 162 63
UEI College-Gardena Private for-profit, less-than 2-year CA Certificate 0 68 63
American Career College at St
Francis Private for-profit, less-than 2-year CA Certificate 0 11 62

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Program Scorecard

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Agenda
1. National
3. Degree Level
4. City and Program
4. Summary

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Key Demand Trends and Observations
§ The decline in total inquiries slowed from 10% to 7%.
§ Conversion rates and conversions continued to rise.
─ Conversion rates are up 45% vs. benchmark.
─ August conversions rose 15%.
§ Prices for inquiries are slowly rising: up 2.2% in November.
§ Online programs continue to lead the turnaround, though growth slowed this month.
─ Inquiries for online programs grew 2%.
─ Conversions rose 17%.
§ On-ground continued a rapid decline.
─ Inquiries for on-ground fell 20%.
─ Conversions dropped 6%, which is an improvement over last month’s 18% decline.
§ Good market analysis uses several data sources, which illuminate distinct sectors.
─ The largest programs in IPEDS are quite different from Google’s.
─ IPEDS includes more “college-first” decisions.
─ Google data emphasizes more “occupation-first” decisions.

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Questions and Contacts
Please feel free to contact:
Bob Atkins
CEO
Gray Associates, Inc.
Bob.Atkins@GrayAssociates.com
@Gray_Associates
617.366.2836

GRAY
Upcoming Gray Associates’ Webcast
Please join us next month!
January Webcast
(December Results)
Wednesday, January 25th at 2:00 PM ET

2017 November GrayReports - Demand Trends for Higher Education

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2017 November GrayReports - Demand Trends for Higher Education