2018 February GrayReports - Demand Trends for Higher Education

GRAYREPORTS
Demand for Higher Education Programs
www.GrayAssociates.com
Results through February 2018

617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 2
GRAY
For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: Sales@GrayAssociates.com
Who Is Gray?
Program and Market
Evaluation Data
Employment
Placement Rates
Student Demand
Demographics
Wages
Programs Price ProjectsPlace
§ Program Evaluation System
§ Program profiles
§ Program location
§ Market selection
§ Location selection
§ Campus consolidation
§ Price elasticity
§ Price positioning
§ Price optimization
§ Business strategy
§ Strategy implementation
§ Complex analytics
Advanced Analytics
Predictive Models
Geo-Analytics
Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders
Competition
Employer Requirements
X-
walk+

GRAY
Agenda
1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Searches
1. National
2. Online and On-Campus
3. City and Program
2. Program of the Month: Computer Programming
3. Case Study on Geo-targeting by Enrollment Builders
4. Summary

GRAY
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National Inquiries
All Programs and Award Levels
2016 2017 2018
Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)
Total inquiry volumes have been declining for several years.
§ Declining unemployment rate
§ Falling interest in post-secondary education
§ Marketers shifting away from paid inquiries
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

GRAY
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
National Inquiries
2016 2017 2018
Inquiries decreased an average of 10% year-over-year in 2017.
-10%

GRAY
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
National Inquiries
2016 2017 2018
The long and steep decline in inquiry volume may be coming to an end.
§ January volume rose 3% year-over-year.
§ February reached last year’s volume.
+0%

GRAY
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2014
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2015
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Q4
2016
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
Q3
2017
Q4
2017
Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends
(Indexed to Q1 2014)
Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates
In 2017, conversion rates were well above our 2014 baseline.
§ Q3 2017 beat the baseline by 51%.
§ Q4 2017 regressed, but still beat the baseline by 23%. It will likely improve a little as stragglers convert.
1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry is received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March is counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the
application rate will rise for three months or more after the month in which the inquiries were received.
2. Total includes unknown source type.
+51

GRAY
Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)
For November 2017 inquiries, total conversions are down 8% year-over-year.
§ October 2017 beat 2016 levels by 14%.
§ December 2017 and January 2018 are currently down 14% and 16% year-over-year, but are likely to close this
gap as they continue to mature.
1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the
application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
Total Inquiry Conversions
2016 2017 2018
-8% YoY
Immature Months1

GRAY
2016 $45.11 $45.91 $44.79 $44.85 $42.47 $44.97 $44.39 $44.53 $45.13 $44.77 $44.89 $45.49
2017 $45.38 $45.28 $45.50 $45.38 $45.52 $45.79 $45.23 $44.57 $45.09 $46.08 $45.92 $46.73
2018 $47.25 46.78 - - - - - - - - - -
$30
$32
$34
$36
$38
$40
$42
$44
$46
$48
$50
Average Price per Inquiry for PPI
Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry
For 11 out of the past 12 months, the average price paid per inquiry has risen year-over-year.
§ For the last three months, prices have been over $46.00.
§ In February, prices rose 3.3% year-over-year to $46.78.
Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.
+3.3%
YoY

GRAY
Student Inquiries: 10 Largest Inquiry Budgets
1.00
0.70
0.47
0.43
0.38
0.36
0.33
0.26
0.21
0.20
0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00
Business Administration and Management
Medical/Clinical Assistant
Health/Health Care Administration
Psychology, General
Medical Insurance Coding Specialist
Web Page, Digital/Multimedia Design
Medical Office Assistant/Specialist
HVAC
Graphic Design
Medical Insurance Specialist
10 Largest Inquiry Budgets
(February 2018)
Business Administration has the highest spending on inquiries.
Index to Max

GRAY
In February, year-over-year spending increased for 6 of the 10 programs with the largest budgets.
Student Inquiries: Budget Spending for 10 Largest Programs
§ The program with the largest budget, Business Administration, decreased 2% year-over-year.
% Change YoY
41%
40%
36%
35%
16%
1%
-2%
-15%
-17%
-21%
-45% -35% -25% -15% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% 55%
Health/Health Care Administration
Medical Insurance Coding Specialist
Psychology, General
Web Page, Digital/Multimedia Design.
Graphic Design
HVAC
Business Administration and Management
Medical/Clinical Assistant
Medical Insurance Specialist/Medical Biller
Medical Office Assistant/Specialist
February 2018 Inquiry Budget Trends
10 Programs With the Largest Budgets

GRAY
Agenda
1. National
3. City and Program
4. Summary

GRAY
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Inquiries
Inquiries for Online Programs
All Programs and Award Levels 2016 2017 2018
Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeOn average, student demand for online programs grew 5% year-over-year in 2017.
+5%

GRAY
Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeInquiries for online programs jumped 4% year-over-year in February.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Inquiries
All Programs and Award Levels 2016 2017 2018
+4%

GRAY
Inquiries for On-Campus Programs
On average, student demand for on-campus programs fell 14% year-over-year in 2017.
2012
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Inquiries
2016 2017 2018
-14%

GRAY
In February, inquiries for on-campus programs dropped 7% year-over-year.
2012
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Inquiries
2016 2017 2018
-7% YoY

GRAY
Agenda
1. National
3. City and Program
4. Summary

GRAY
Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities
In February 2018, the decline slowed in The Big 5 Cities, but each still fell year-over year.
§ Houston was down the most this month (-6%), after falling 13% YOY in January.
-17%
-22%
-17%
-19%
-28%
-4% -4% -4% -5% -6%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
New York, NY Chicago, IL Philadelphia, PA Los Angeles, CA Houston, TX
Five Cities With the Most Inquiries Since January 2012
Year-over-Year Change in February Inquiries
2017 YoY % Change 2018 YoY % Change
Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.

GRAY
The Big 5 Programs: February Growth Year-over-Year
Four out of The Big 5 Programs fell in February.
51%
-1% -1% -3%
-13%-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Healthcare
Administration
Registered Nursing Business
Administration
Criminal Justice Medical Assistant
Five Largest Programs Since January 2012
2018 YoY % Change

GRAY
185% 181%
134%
97%
86%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
Electrical Engineering Management Science Computer
Programming
Cybersecurity Game/Media Design
The Fast 5 Programs
2018 YoY % Change
The Fast 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth
All five of the fastest-growing programs1 grew more than 80%.
§ Computer Programming and Cybersecurity are repeats from last month.
1. Includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.

GRAY
Agenda
1. National
3. City and Program
4. Summary

GRAY
Computer Programming: Salary
Salaries are typically more than $75,000 for Computer Programmer-related jobs.
529
544
1,495
3,838
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500
Less than $35,000
$35,000 to $49,999
$50,000 to $74,999
More than $75,000
Salary Distribution (Advertised)
§ The mean salary is $84,000.
§ The median salary is $83,000.
Note: Most job postings do not include salary data.
Number of Postings Citing the Salary Level
Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2018. March 1, 2017-February 28, 2018
SOC Code 15-1131 (Computer Programmers) was used in this analysis.

GRAY
Computer Programming: Education (Minimum Advertised)
Among job postings that specify education, over 80% cite a Bachelor’s degree.
18%
6%
72%
2%
2%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
High school or vocational training
Associate's degree
Bachelor's degree
Master's degree
Doctoral degree
Most Frequently Cited Minimum Education
Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2018. March 1, 2017-February 28, 2018
SOC Code 15-1131 (Computer Programmers) was used in this analysis.

GRAY
Computer Programming: Employer Requirements
0.99
0.99
0.99
0.99
0.81
0.71
0.71
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.63
0.63
0.63
0.63
0.56
0.53
0.53
0.53
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10
Design data processing systems
Design data security systems
Optimize software performance
Write computer programs or code
Design software applications
Apply user experience to application design
Design software or user interface
Assist users with software or hardware problems
Debug computer programs, software, or systems
Maintain complex computer databases
Maintain computer software or code
Solve software problems
Develop complex computer databases
Develop simple financial data repositories or databases
Develop simple informational data repositories or databases
Develop simple operational data repositories
Troubleshoot computer database problems
Define website architectures
Develop accessible web interfaces
Develop applications to access data warehouses
Computer Programming: Primary Work Activities
Fit with Job
Low Fit with Job High
Source: SkillsEngine, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
CIPs: Computer Programming, General (11.0201)

GRAY
Computer Programming: Program Scorecard

GRAY
Computer Programming: Market Rank

GRAY
Computer Programming: San Francisco, CA Market Scorecard

GRAY
Computer Programming: Canton, OH Market Scorecard

GRAY
CBSA30s By Overall Score Percentile

GRAY
Agenda
1. National
3. City and Program
4. Summary

Jennifer Goode
www.EnrollmentBuilders.com
Jennifer.Goode@enrollmentbuilders.com
Phone: 859.963.3851

Developing a Geo-targeting Strategy that Drives
Incremental Growth at the Program Level
Regional Targeting: Owned Markets
• Google AdWords
• Google Analytics
• Google Search Console
• Review of Existing CRM/SIS Student
Data
Growth: Earned Markets
• Employment Gaps
• Student Demand
• Employer Requirements
• Demographics
• Competition

Developing a Geo-targeting Strategy that Drives
Incremental Growth at the Program Level
Relative Positioning
Earned Market Strategy Build, Measure, and Learn
Establish Program-
Specific National and
Regional Benchmarks
Develop Individual
Geographic Market
Strategy
Leverage Market Data to
Accelerate Incremental
Growth
Identify Program Benchmarks
Compare markets to these
benchmarks
Identify areas that stand out
against benchmarks for
incremental growth
Achieve accelerated and
incremental growth

Computer Programming - National
Validating an underserved “gap” by market
• 70% of job postings require a BA
• 47% of the completions nationally are
for BA
• Only 18% of completions are for BA,
81% are for AA and BA

Look for a competition “gap” in Google
• Google AdWords is an open auction.
• More “bidders” for particular programs
drive up price.
• CPC $8
• .51 Competitive Index
• Google Search Demand

Computer Programming - San Francisco
Validating an underserved “gap” in the
market to find marketing opportunity
• 67% of job postings require a BA
• Only 4% of completions are for BA, 81%
for Certificate

drive up price.
• CPC $9
• Google Search Demand 2,254

drive up price
• CPC $9

Earned Versus Owned Design
Owned Markets
Earned Markets
Incremental Growth
● Reach beyond your own backyard
● Data-driven strategy identifying strategic
opportunities
One Year Test
50% regional of media 50% across national
markets of interest:
● Low CPC
● Low Competition
● High Student Demand

Targeting Strategy Results | 1 - Year
Clicks Impressions CTR Avg.
CPC
Cost Inquiries CPI Conv. rate Starts Cost Per Start
22,249 3,156,381 0.70% $14.69 $326,894.57 1,195 $273.55 5% 89 $3,672.97
Clicks Impressions CTR Avg.
CPC
Cost Inquiries CPI Conv. rate Starts Cost Per Start
29,761 3,088,807 0.96% $10.93 $325,141.35 1,804 $180.23 6.06% 192 $1,693.44
Google AdWords/CRM Data
National Geotargeting: Earned Markets
Regional Strategy: Owned Market
$2,320 blended cost per deposit
Optimize and analyze success metrics differently

GRAY
Agenda
1. National
3. Degree Level
4. City and Program
3. Program Marketing: Enrollment Builders
4. Summary

GRAY
Key Demand Trends and Observations
§ The overall inquiry volumes are flat.
§ Conversions are declining.
─ August conversions dropped 8%.
§ Online programs led the growth`.
─ Inquiries for online programs grew 4%.
§ On-ground continued a rapid decline.
─ Inquiries for on-ground fell 7%.
─ Conversions dropped 21%.
§ Gray’s Program Evaluation System is an increasingly robust tool.
─ Multiple data sources on student demand, employment, and competition
─ Now includes data on employer needs, including work activities and tools

GRAY
Questions and Contacts
Please feel free to contact:
Bob Atkins
CEO
Gray Associates, Inc.
Bob.Atkins@GrayAssociates.com
@Gray_Associates
617.366.2836

GRAY
Upcoming Gray Associates’ Webcast
Please join us next month!
April Webcast
(March Results)
Thursday, April 19th at 2:00 PM EDT

2018 February GrayReports - Demand Trends for Higher Education

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

What's hot

What's hot (20)

Similar to 2018 February GrayReports - Demand Trends for Higher Education

Similar to 2018 February GrayReports - Demand Trends for Higher Education (12)

More from Gray Associates, Inc

More from Gray Associates, Inc (10)

Recently uploaded

Recently uploaded (20)

2018 February GrayReports - Demand Trends for Higher Education