The Best Practices in Program Portfolio Evaluation - Competitive Intensity

Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 1Confidential
Academic Program
Selection and Assessment
Choosing Which Programs to
Start, Stop, Sustain, or Grow
March 2017

Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 2
Framework for Evaluation
We suggest screening all programs on four market factors.
Student
Demand
Employment
Opportunities
Degree Fit
Competitive
Intensity

Student
Demand
Employment
Opportunities
Degree Fit
Competitive
Intensity

Why Worry About Competition?

Why Worry?
Traditional educational segments are growing less than 1% annually.*
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Population
(in Millions)
US Population
1950 to 2015 Actual
2015-2060 Estimated
Younger than 15 15-64 65+
CAGR: 0.4%
CAGR: 0.1%
CAGR: 2.9%
Projections
*Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Aﬀairs, Population Division. https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/
65+
15-65
Under 15

2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2
1.1
1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2
0.9
0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Completions
(Millions)
Completions by Sector
(Millions)
Private for profit
Private not-for profit
Public +3%
4.8
5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1
+1%
-5%
Annual
Growth
Rate
Total
Private
For-Profit
Private Not
For-Profit
Public
+1%
Why Worry?
Overall, traditional higher education is not growing–or shrinking.
Source: Gray Associates, 2011-2015 IPEDS National completions for all CIPs, all award levels.

Winners: Competency-Based Education
But, some institutions are taking share and growing.
3,987
5,895
8,313
10,822
13,186
48%
41%
30%
22%
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Western Governors University
Completions
Source: Gray Associates, 2011-2015 IPEDS completions for all CIPs, all award levels.

What Markets Do You Serve?

Brand search volumes can highlight your served markets by state.
1637.88
116.26
40.38
26.82
23.08
18.04
12.78
11.34
9.47
7.05
6.59
6.05
4.99
4.36
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800
Indiana
Illinois
Kentucky
Michigan
Ohio
Florida
Georgia
North Carolina
Virginia
Missouri
Google Search Volume by State
Example: Ivy Tech Community College
Searches: 000s

§  Keywords Used
–  Black Hawk College
–  BHC Illinois
–  Black Hawk College Illinois
–  Black Hawk College IL
–  Black Hawk College Moline IL
–  Black Hawk College tuition
Google Search volumes by county highlight served markets.

§  Regional and national market definitions are often used for online programs.
Distance is a common way to define markets for on-campus programs.
29%
57%
74%
83%
92%
95% 97% 98% 98% 99% 99% 99%
0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Miles
from
Student’s
Home
to
Campus

Students:
Distance
to
Campus

Market Definition:
35-Mile Radius
Percentage
of Students

Schools often serve more than one market, state or region.

Competition

Competition: Foundational Data

IPEDS Completions
IPEDs provides completions by location, school, program, and degree level.

Completions reveal past market share, but anomalies are common.
IPEDS Completions
12%
53% 55%
61%
6%
6%
9%
7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2012 2013 2014 2015
Competitors by Share of Completions
Registered Nursing in Chicago
University of Illinois at
Chicago
Resurrection University
Loyola University
Chicago
Purdue University-
Calumet Campus
Chamberlain College
of Nursing-Illinois
CIP Code 51.3801, Registered Nursing

Not-So Local Competition
IPEDS misses national online institutions that compete in your local market.

Non-Title IV Competition
Some schools operate without Title IV funds–or submissions to IPEDS.

Number of
Courses
MOOCs
§  The number of MOOC courses is growing exponentially.
§  Combined, Coursera, edX, and Udacity have over 30 million users.
§  This is roughly equivalent to the total enrollment in degree-granting institutions.
§  Their enrollment may be a bell-weather for popular courses.
The hype has died down, but MOOCs continue to grow, outside of IPEDS.
Source: Chart data is from Class-Central, https://www.class-central.com/report/moocs-2015-stats/
MOOC Trends
Number of Courses Oﬀered
4,0004,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0

Competitive Intensity

Competitive Intensity Data: Completions per Capita
Completions per capita for a program, relative to the same programs in other markets,
is a useful indicator of market saturation.

Competitive Intensity Data: Cost per Inquiry
§  Inquiries for Management Science are very expensive: $114 each.
§  Finance inquiries are lower-priced: $47.94.
Higher cost per inquiry is an indicator of more intense competition.
Philadelphia
Bachelor’s Degree Programs

Can you aﬀord to compete?
PPC Competitor Research: Registered Nursing Programs
Source: https://www.ispionage.com – Competitor Ad Research Tool for the keyword“Registered Nursing Programs”

Student Demand Data: Student Inquiries
Share of student inquiries can create a current view of program size and trends.

Competition for Inquiries
Share of Inquiries helps distinguish market growth and decline from program health.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Share of Inquiries
All Programs and Award Levels
Market Inquiries College A Inquiries College A Share

Scoring for Competitive Intensity
§  Specifically, percentiles help you set thresholds for scoring.
Percentiles provide context for the numbers on programs and markets.

Scoring for Competitive Intensity
§  It compares a program in your market to the same program in 100 US markets.
Completions per capita is a useful metric for market saturation.

Program Size and Competition
§  Change in median program size is also an indicator of saturation.
Median Program Size helps define program potential.

Competitive Intensity Metrics: Interpretation
We currently track three measures on competition and competitive intensity.
National Competitive Metrics for Program X

Student
Demand
Employment
Opportunities
Degree Fit
Competitive
Intensity

The degree granted for each program should enable graduates to win jobs.
Degree Fit
25%
43%
22%
8%
2%
0% 20% 40% 60%
No College
Certificate
Associates
Bachelors
Graduate
Medical Assisting
% of Completions
5%
10%
9%
53%
23%
0% 20% 40% 60%
No College
Certificate
Associates
Bachelors
Graduate
Accounting
% of Workforce

Program Evaluation: Competition
§  Before you can evaluate competition, you need to define your market.
§  IPEDS has lots of good historical data on competition.
–  IPEDS identifies most competitors and their size and growth.
–  Median completions helps to estimate the size of potential new programs.
–  Change in median completions is an indicator of saturation.
§  But, IPEDS is dated and missing certain competitors:
–  National on-line
–  Non-Title IV
§  More current data is available, including Google and Inquiries
§  The degree for the program should enable graduates to compete for jobs.
Competition is a critical element in program evaluation.

Market Share
Higher Education is not growing. To grow, you must take share.

Cooperative Process
Good program decisions take more than numbers…
Running An Eﬀective Program Planning Process
2:00 to 3:00 EDT
April 27, 2017
Please Join Us!

For More Information…
To contact Gray Associates:
Bob Atkins
CEO
Gray Associates, Inc.
Bob.Atkins@GrayAssociates.com
617-366-2836

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