2016 March GrayReports - Student Demand Trends

GRAYREPORTS
Demand for Higher Education Programs
www.GrayAssociates.com
Results through March 2016

617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 2
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GrayReports tracks demand for higher education.
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Over 45 million qualified inquiries
January 2012 to the present
Over 750,000 new inquiries in March 2016
Over 200 programs with over 10,000 inquiries
Over 300 cities with over 10,000 inquiries

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Agenda
1.  National Inquiry and Conversion Trends
2.  Inquiries and Conversions: Online vs. On-Campus Programs
3.  Views by Program and Segment
4.  Program Evaluation
5.  SocialHP
6.  Summary

GRAY
Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)
Overall inquiry volumes for higher education fell another 10%.
§  Inquiries were increasing late last year, but the trend broke at the start of the new year.
§  This year’s first quarter was down 9% compared to last year’s first quarter.
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National Inquiries
All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 2016
-10% YoY

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Branded Inquiries
Branded inquiries decreased 10% in March.
§  March was the first time Branded inquiries have decreased since July 2015.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
National Branded Inquiries
-10% YoY

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External Inquiries: Overall Results
External inquiries decreased in March for the second consecutive year.
§  This was the lowest March volume in over four years.
§  External inquiries decreased year-over-year in 13 of the last 15 months.
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
National External Inquiries
-11% YoY

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Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates
Overall conversion rates have been volatile, but were trending up until recent months.
§  Since Q1 2014, quarterly rates have risen as much as 18% and dropped by 4%.
§  The most recent mature quarter dropped by 1%.
§  Both Branded and external inquiry conversion rates dropped in Q4.
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015
Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends
(Indexed to Q1 2014)
1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be
counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
2.  Total includes unknown source type.

GRAY
Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)
In December, total student conversions for programs in higher education decreased 7% year-over-year.
§  This comes after strong growth in November.
§  After the weak Q4, conversion rates in Q1 are good, though Q1 has not matured.
§  As a result, Q1 seems likely to hit last year’s levels when it matures.
1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the
application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Total Inquiry Conversions
All Programs and Award Levels
2014 2015 2016
-7% YoY
Immature Months1

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Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry
The price of an external inquiry increased 3% year-over-year.
§  After a record high in February, the average price is back below the $45 mark.
§  Better inquiries may cost more—and institutions are competing for fewer inquiries.
2014 $41.72 $41.81 $41.70 $42.45 $40.94 $44.23 $44.25 $44.00 $45.34 $45.44 $44.79 $42.18
2015 $43.10 $43.50 $43.70 $43.61 $43.80 $43.63 $45.07 $44.75 $45.24 $44.92 $44.67 $44.75
2016 $45.11 $45.93 $44.90
$44.90
$35
$37
$39
$41
$43
$45
$47
Average Price per Inquiry for PPI
Note: PPI means“Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.

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Agenda
1.  National Inquiry Trends
5.  SocialHP
6.  Summary

GRAY
Inquiries for Online Programs
Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeInquiries for online programs fell less than February, but did decrease 5%.
§  In 2015, September (+20%), October (+46%), and November (+40%) had solid inquiry volume.
§  March did recover from a February that was exceptionally low.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Inquiries
Inquiries for Online Programs
2014 2015 2016
-5% YoY

GRAY
Student Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs
Year-over-year, December had 12% more conversions for online programs.
§  This trend will probably not continue into the new year.
─  January is on pace to come in very near 2015 levels.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs
2014 2015 2016
Immature Months1
12% YoY

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Inquiries for On-Campus Programs
Student demand for on-campus higher education programs dropped 7% year-over-year.
§  Inquiries grew in October and November of 2015.
§  December fell 8%.
§  The decline had accelerated to start 2016—January and February were down 14% and 17%.
2012
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Inquiries
Inquiries for On-Campus Programs
2014 2015 2016
-7% YoY

GRAY
Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs
Conversions for on-campus programs continued to decline—down 13% in December.
§  Q1 conversions may reach last year’s levels when these months mature.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs
2014 2015 2016
-13% YOY
Immature Months1

GRAY
Agenda
5.  SocialHP
6.  Summary

GRAY
The Big 5 Programs: March Growth
Three of the big five programs grew!
§  Three of the Big 5 Programs grew 8% or more year-over-year.
─  After massive year-over-year declines in 2014 and 2015, Criminal Justice is regaining some ground.
─  Registered Nursing is continuing to grow and is up more than 14%.
§  Medical Assistant and Administrative Assistant continued to fall.
-76%
84%
6%
-13%
-7%
50%
14%
8%
-20%
-27%
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Criminal Justice/Police
Science
Registered Nursing/
Registered Nurse
Business Administration and
Management
Medical/Clinical Assistant Administrative Assistant and
Secretarial Science
Five Largest Programs Since January 2012
Year-over-Year Change in March Inquiries
2015 YoY % Change 2016 YoY % Change

GRAY
Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities
Once again, the biggest cities were down year-over-year.
§  March was much worse than February for the Big 5—all five were down more than 10%.
§  Unlike last month, Chicago had the largest decline, with a 34% year-over-year drop.
-15%
-2%
-28%
-7%
-10%
-12%
-22%
-25%
-30%
-34%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
Philadelphia, PA New York, NY Los Angeles, CA Atlanta, GA Chicago, IL
Top Five Cities for Inquiries Since January 2012
Year-over-Year Change in March Inquiries
2015 YoY % Change2 2016 YoY % Change
Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.

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-34%
-29%
-13%
-12%
-8%
-8%
-1%
12%
18%
26%
-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
Unknown Degree
Associate's
Campus
External
Online
Certificate
Branded
Bachelor's
Doctorate
Master's
Quarterly Change in Inquiries
2014/2015 vs. 2015/2016 (January – March)
Inquiry Volumes by Category – Trailing 3 Months
Quarterly inquiries for higher-level degrees continued to grow.
§  Higher-level degrees continue to have the highest inquiry growth.
§  Unlike previous quarters, internal inquiries declined slightly.
§  For the quarter, both on-campus and online programs were down.

GRAY
Inquiry Volumes by Channel - Trailing 3 Months
For the most part, branded inquiry channels outperformed external inquiries.
§  Social Media continued to be the fastest-growing channel.
§  Five diﬀerent branded inquiry channels grew in March.
-76%
-45%
-39%
-31%
-21%
-19%
-9%
-7%
-4%
-3%
8%
10%
36%
57%
178%
-100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200%
Display: Branded
Inbound Phone: Branded
Offline Media: Branded
Referral: Branded
Affiliate - PPC: External
Affiliate: External
All Other Internal: Branded
PPC: Branded
Email: Branded
PPL: External
Interactive: Branded
Website: Branded
Organic: Branded
PPC - Inbound Call: Branded
Social Media: Branded
Quarterly Change in Inquiries by Channel
(January – March, YoY)

GRAY
Agenda
5.  SocialHP
6.  Summary

GRAY
DoE to Accreditors: Employment Outcomes Matter
The Department of Education notified accreditors that they need to better monitor employment outcomes.
“If there have been poor outcomes for students or other concerns that
have arisen at accredited institutions or programs, does the agency need
to revise its standards and processes to identify and address those issues
more eﬀectively?”
Source: Letter from the U.S. Department of Education dated April 22, 2016 titled“Flexibility in Application of Accrediting Agency Review Process; and Emphases
in Departmental Review of Agency Eﬀectiveness”, signed by Ted Mitchell, Under Secretary.

GRAY
85% of BLS growth projections are off by 50% or more.
•  45% of BLS’s estimates were too optimistic. Of these, 32% were off by 100% or more.
•  55% were too optimistic; these were closer the mark; still, 44% were off by 50% or more55%
were too optimistic; these were closer the mark; still, 44% were off by 50% or more.
•  55% were too optimistic; these were closer to the mark; still, 44% were off by 50% or more
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
<10% 10-25% 25-50% 50-75% 75-100% 100-150% 150-200% 200%+
Percentage
of SOCs
Percentage Error
Error in BLS Actual vs. Projected Change in Employment
2012-2015
Forecast Too
Pessimistic
Forecast Too
Optimistic
Source: BLS Occupational Employment Statistics and BLS Employment Projections 2012-2022
Note: BLS forecasts are for 2022. Gray used the 2012 base and the BLS annual growth rate to estimate 2015 employment.

GRAY
Job Postings Are Quite Consistent Over Time
New Job Postings in 2012 were a better predictor.
-
250,000
500,000
750,000
1,000,000
1,250,000
1,500,000
- 250,000 500,000 750,000
2015-16 New
Job Postings
2012-13 New Job Postings
New Job Postings
By 8-Digit SOC*
Home Health
Aides
Stock Clerks
and Order
Fillers
Source: WANTED Analytics. Excludes SOC 53-3032.00 Commercial Truck Drivers.

GRAY
Monthly New Job Postings for Securities Traders
Some fields are quite volatile; these postings have limited predictive value.
New Job
Postings
New Job Postings
Securities and Commodities Traders
2012-2016
Source: WANTED Analytics. SOC 41-3031.03 Securities and Commodities Traders.

GRAY
Monthly New Job Postings for Registered Nurses
Some occupations have had essentially straight-line growth trends. Postings in these fields would be highly
predictive.
New Job Postings
Registered Nurses
2012-2016
New Job
Postings
Source: WANTED Analytics. SOC 29-1141 Registered Nurses.

GRAY
Agenda
5.  SocialHP
6.  Summary

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GRAY
Agenda
5.  SocialHP
6.  Summary

GRAY
Key Demand Trends and Observations
March generally underperformed.
§  Inquiry volumes fell 10%.
─  Branded down 10%
─  Online down 5%
─  On-campus down 7%
§  Conversions are down 7%.
─  However, online conversions were up 12% in December.
─  It is too early to tell if January of 2016 will reach last year’s levels.
§  Prices are up year-over-year, but down from last month’s new high.
§  Several large programs are growing.
§  Higher degree levels continue to outperform.
§  Better data and systems are available to support your decisions.
─  Where to focus your marketing—by program and market
─  What programs to Stop, Start, Sustain or Grow

GRAY
Questions and Contacts
Please feel free to contact:
Bob Atkins
CEO
Gray Associates, Inc.
Bob.Atkins@GrayAssociates.com
@Gray_Associates
617.366.2836

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2016 March GrayReports - Student Demand Trends

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