Presentation from Jeremy Hill to the Wichita Metro Chamber of Commerce's Leadership Wichita class on Sept. 3, 2015

1. Leadership
Wichita
Jeremy Hill

2. Scott Anderson, Chief Economist, Senior Vice President
Bank of the West
Ted Jones, Chief Economist, Senior Vice President
Stewart Title Guaranty Company

3. Is Wichita like a Pickle?

4. Is Wichita like a Pickle
•Crunchy/soft
•Sweet/sour
•Stuck in a jar
•Common/unique
•In demand/yesterday’s health food
craze

5. Is Wichita like a Pickle?
•Gherkin
•Cornichon
•Brined
•Kosher dill
•Polish
•Spice
•Hungarian
•Lime
•Kool-Aid

6. Leadership Wichita 2015
•How big is the pickle jar?
• What is the physical size of our “regional” economy?
•What type of pickle are we?
• Are we “Kosher?”
•Is there a sour pickle among us?
• Poverty, race, and education
•What does the pickle production look like?
• Are we growing or declining?
•Do we want to make a new pickle?
• What do we do now?

7. How big is the pickle jar?

8. Jobs - Manufacturing

9. Labor - Manufacturing

10. Labor - Agriculture

16. How big is the pickle jar?

17. What type of pickle are we?

18. Total Employment
27%
73%
Jul-05
Goods Producing Service Producing
24%
76%
Jul-15
Goods Producing Service Producing

19. Relative Contraction
More
Concentrated
Relative Expansion
Less
Concentrated
Earnings

22. Value of Kansas Exports
Sources: Foreign Trade Division of the U.S. Census Bureau
0
100,000,000
200,000,000
300,000,000
400,000,000
500,000,000
600,000,000 Jan-02
Sep-02
May-03
Jan-04
Sep-04
May-05
Jan-06
Sep-06
May-07
Jan-08
Sep-08
May-09
Jan-10
Sep-10
May-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
May-13
Jan-14
Food & Agri Chemicals Machinery Aerospace

23. What type of pickle are we?
•Manufacturing state
•Commodity driven state
•Manufacturing city
•Aerospace drives the economy, creates
wealth, and provides new income
•Aerospace remains a vital component of
the regional economy

24. What type of pickle are we?
Part 2

25. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005-2009 American Community Survey
United
States
Average
25.2
Minutes
Sedgwick
County
Average
17.9
Minutes

27. Rail Network

28. Energy
Kansas U.S. Average Diference Unit
Petroleum $53.12 54.38 ($1.26) Barrel
Natural Gas $14.50 12.61 $1.89 Thousand cu ft
Coal $1.68 2.25 ($0.57) Million Btu
Electricity
Residential $12.90 12.95 ($0.05) Cents/kWh
Commercial $10.15 10.44 ($0.29) Cents/kWh
Industrial $7.20 6.65 $0.55 Cents/kWh
Sources: EIA
http://www.eia.gov/state/data.cfm?sid=KS#Prices
Energy Prices - May 2015

29. Per Capita Income (% of U.S.)
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013
Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA (Metropolitan Statistical Area)
Kansas City, MO-KS (Metropolitan Statistical Area)
Wichita, KS (Metropolitan Statistical Area)
Source: BEA

30. Cost of Living 1Q 15
Kansas Other MSA’s
Topeka, KS 92.3 Tulsa, OK 85.4
Dodge City, KS 94.7 Wichita, KS 90.8
Wichita, KS 90.8 Dallas, TX 97.1
Hutchinson, KS 91.0 Kansas City, MO 94.8
Manhattan, KS 90.6 Denver, CO 107.7
Chicago, IL 114.6
U.S. 100
Source: ACCRA Cost of Living Index, May 2015

31. Home Price Appreciation
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency
-10
-5
0
5
10
2005
2005
2006
2006
2007
2007
2008
2008
2009
2009
2010
2010
2011
2011
2012
2012
2013
2013
Kansas Wichita, KS United States

32. What makes us special?
•Centralized position within the US
•Limited geological boundaries
•Rail and highway network
•Wage costs
•Cost of living
•Consistent growth/home price
appreciation

33. Is there a sour pickle among
us?

37. Where do minorities live?

40. Where is the poverty?

42. Where does the least educated live?

44. Where does the most educated live?

46. Where does the wealthy live?

48. Is there a sour pickle among
us?

49. Is there a sour pickle among us?
•Aging population base
•In migration within the regional states
•Out migration to the rest of the world
•Homogenous/non-diversified
population
• Gentrification – minority, poverty, and
less educated

50. What does the pickle
production look like?

51. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Area Employment

52. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Area Employment

53. Is this good, bad, or ugly?
(6.00)
(5.00)
(4.00)
(3.00)
(2.00)
(1.00)
-
Total Goods
Producing
Service
Producing
June 2009 - July 2015
(8.00)
(6.00)
(4.00)
(2.00)
-
2.00
4.00
6.00
June 2009 - July 2015
Source: BLS - CES

54. Is this good, bad, or ugly?
•The structure of the aerospace industry
has changed!
•What will be the economic drivers for
the regional economy?

55. Do we want to make a new
pickle?

56. “How do we get out of this pickle?”
•Challenges and opportunities
•What do you want out of Wichita?
•What do you want Wichita to be?
•Development from above and/or
development from below!

57. CEDBR
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