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2018 Economic Summit for OCHAR members
- 1. 2018 Economic Summit TheOrange Chatham Association of Realtors® Presents FEATURING: Dr. Michael Walden #ECONSummit’18
- 2. Welcome! Jaye Kreller Orange ChathamAssociation of REALTORS® 2018 President #ECONSummit’18
- 3. Thank you toour Foundation Sponsor! Bagwell Holt Smith P.A. Tom Holt #ECONSummit’18
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- 6. Learning on Demand Findus on:
- 8. The Orange ChathamAssociation of Realtors® 2019 Annual Dues Timeline • October 9: Annual Dues Invoices live • December 31: Annual Dues Due • January 5: Dues are Late ($75)
- 9. 2018 Economic Summit TheOrange Chatham Association of Realtors® Presents Dr. Michael Walden North Carolina State University
- 11. WHERE IS THEECONOMY NOW? • 2ND LONGEST GROWTH PERIOD • ACCELERATING GROWTH • TIGHT LABOR MARKETS • RISING INTEREST RATES AND RISING INFLATION
- 12. WHY THE IMPROVEMENT? DE-REGULATION MARKETSLIKED TAX CUTS IMPROVED FOREIGN MARKETS LOW INTEREST RATES
- 13. BUT HOW LONGWILL IMPROVEMENT LAST? BENEFITS OF TAX CUTS BAKED IN ENERGY COSTS NOW RISING UNCERTAINTY ABOUT CONTROL OF CONGRESS HOW FAST WILL FED MOVE?
- 14. * NAFTA * CHINA *TARIFFS INTERRUPTION OF TRADE CONSIDERED A NEGATIVE FOR THE ECONOMY TRADE DEALS OR TRADE WARS?
- 15. • FED’S DUAL MANDATE •“TAKE THE PUNCH BOWL AWAY” • ON TRACK TO RAISE SHORT-TERM RATES A FULL PERCENTAGE PT. FEDERAL RESERVE HAS SHIFTED FOCUS FROM GROWTH TO INFLATION
- 16. PUBLIC DEBT ISBACK AS AN ISSUE WE SLEEPWALKED THROUGH RECENT DEBT HIKES AS INTEREST RATES FELL BUT WITH HIGHER RATES AND FASTER DEBT GROWTH: INTEREST ON DEBT AS % OF BUDGET COULD DOUBLE FROM 7% TO 14% IN 2028
- 17. STRUCTURAL CHALLENGES SLOW PRODUCTIVITY AGINGPOPULATION/SLOW LABOR FORCE GROWTH “INVISIBLE” UNEMPLOYMENT HOLLOWING-OUT OF LABOR MARKET URBAN/RURAL DIVIDE TECHNOLOGY AND UNEMPLOYMENT
- 18. WHEN’S THE NEXTRECESSION? NO CURRENT IMBALANCES CONSUMER DEBT PAYMENT % IS STILL LOW HOWEVER, WATCH AUTO LOANS AND CREDIT CARDS WATCH BUSINESS DEBT NEXT RECESSION: 2020
- 19. OUTLOOK CONTINUED GROWTH FORIMMEDIATE FUTURE SEEING THE “COSTS OF GROWTH” LOOK FOR TRUMP “WAR OF WORDS” AGAINST THE FED IN THE “LATE INNINGS” OF THE EXPANSION
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- 21. STATE ECONOMY ISIMPROVING BOTH GDP AND JOB GROWTH RATES HAVE BEEN EXCEEDING THE NATION’S
- 22. REAL GDP GROWTHRATES -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 % NC US SE
- 23. PAYROLL JOB GROWTHRATES 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 % NC US
- 24. TRENDS IN NCAND US REAL WAGE RATES 22 22.5 23 23.5 24 24.5 25 25.5 26 26.5 27 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 $ NC US
- 25. OUTLOOK IS FORCONTINUED GROWTH 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 2007feb 2007may 2007aug 2007nov 2008feb 2008may 2008aug 2008nov 2009feb 2009may 2009aug 2009nov 2010feb 2010may 2010aug 2010nov 2011feb 2011may 2011aug 2011nov 2012feb 2012may 2012aug 2012nov 2013feb 2013may 2013aug 2013nov 2014feb 2014may 2014aug 2014nov 2015mar 2015jun 2015sep 2015dec 2016mar 2016june 2016sep 2016dec 2017mar 2017june 2017sep 2017dec 2018mar 2018june Source: calculations by Dr. Michael Walden NCSU INDEX OF NORTH CAROLINA LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
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- 27. JOB GROWTH ISON A TEAR (ANNUALIZED RATE FOR 2018, BASED ON JANUARY-JUNE) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Goldsboro Burlington Wilmington Fayetteville Asheville New Bern Charlotte Jacksonville Hickory Rocky Mount Greensboro Winston-Sal State Greenville Raleigh Rural Durham %
- 28. GROWTH IS EXPECTEDTO CONTINUE Region June 2018 Rate Forecasted June 2019 Rate Asheville 3.4% 3.2% Burlington 4.2% 3.9% Charlotte 3.9% 3.7% Durham 3.8% 3.5% Fayetteville 5.4% 4.9% Greensboro 4.5% 4.0% Greenville 4.9% 4.4% Goldsboro 4.6% 4.3% Hickory 3.9% 3.7% Jacksonville 4.0% 3.8% New Bern 4.3% 4.1% Raleigh 3.7% 3.4% Rocky Mount 6.3% 5.8% Wilmington 3.9% 3.6% Winston-Salem 4.1% 3.8%
- 29. CAN HOUSING SUPPLYKEEP UP? FROM 2014 TO MID 2018 • DURHAM-CH METRO AREA ADDED 0.60 HOUSING UNITS PER NEW JOB (65% SINGLE FAMILY) • RALEIGH-CARY METRO AREA ADDED 0.69 HOUSING UNITS PER NEW JOB (70% SINGLE FAMILY)
- 30. STILL, KEY ISSUESFOR NORTH CAROLINA IN UPCOMING DECADES K-12: MAKING GAINS COLLEGE: COST, IMPROVING OUTCOMES WORKFORCE: RE-TRAINING ROADS: FUNDING HEALTH CARE: COST, ACCESS DEMOGRAPHICS: AGING
- 31. PARTING COMMENT ONJOAN CRAWFORD AND BETTE DAVIS
- 32. 2018 Economic Summit TheOrange Chatham Association of Realtors® Presents Dwight Bassett Economic Development Officer Town of Chapel Hill
- 46. 2018 Economic Summit TheOrange Chatham Association of Realtors® Presents Alyssa Byrd Interim President Chatham County Economic Development Corporation
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- 58. 2018 Economic Summit TheOrange Chatham Association of Realtors® Presents Kim Tesoro Chief Executive Officer Hillsborough Chamber of Commerce
- 59. Changing Demographics • Currentpopulation: 7,364 (up from 6,568 in 2017) • Median Household Income: $55,590 • Median Home Listing Price: $245,000; up about 4% from 2017
- 60. Employment Major Employers: • LocalGovernment (Orange County Government, OC School System, and Town of Hillsborough) • UNC Hospital Hillsborough Campus • Walmart • PHE, Inc. • Sports Endeavors • Weaver Street Market • Food Lion ………………to name a few!
- 61. Housing Areas New SingleFamily Construction: o Collins Ridge o Waterstone Estates o Forest Ridge & Fiori Hill o Corbinton Commons (55+) New Townhome Construction: oCollins Ridge oElfin’s Pond o Waterstone Terraces/Harmony @ Waterstone New Condo/Apartment Construction: o515 Churton oBellevue Mill Still seeing an overwhelming demand for houses in the Historic District and great home value growth on homes located in West Hillsborough (Mill district) immediately adjacent to the historic downtown.
- 62. Why live inHillsborough? o Great small town on the Eno River o Outdoor recreation opportunities abound and include the Riverwalk Greenway, which connections from Occoneechee Speedway through Downtown, West Hillsborough, and into the back of Occoneechee Mountain State Park o Fantastic local school system o Award winning restaurants, unique shops, and beautiful historic architecture
- 63. Why live inHillsborough? o Creative arts community o Always something to do with a thriving tourism program that consists of free concerts/events, programs, and attractions o Low crime rate
- 64. 2018 Economic Summit TheOrange Chatham Association of Realtors® Presents
- 65. The Orange ChathamAssociation of Realtors® Presents 2018 Economic Summit Check under your seats
- 66. 2018 Economic Summit TheOrange Chatham Association of Realtors® Presents Thank You for Coming! Don’t miss our holiday luncheon / officer installation @ Governors Club on December 14th
Editor's Notes
- #48 I want to start with a Chatham County landscape 101. We have two industrial megasites that are actively marketed with the state and other partners for large economic development projects. I’m not going into detail with those today, but know that when a large industrial user comes, that will have a ripple effect on commercial and residential real estate throughout the area. We have four municipalities, Siler City, Pittsboro and Goldston, and the town of Cary stretched over the Wake County border. Governors Village, Governors Club and Fearrington Village are well-established residential communities with commercial components. They are all still growing, particularly the commercial in Governors Village. And then there’s Briar Chapel and Chatham Park, which I’m going to dig into deeper.
- #49 First, Briar Chapel. Briar Chapel celebrated its 10-year anniversary this year. It’s a planned mixed-use development and the top-selling community in the Triangle.
- #50 Here is an aerial from 2016. The growth in 2017. And now, doing a 180, the new construction as of June. They are approved for up to 2,400 single family homes. To date, have sold 1,700 homes. Did 296 new homes in 2017. There are a mix of home styles, and plenty of community amenities, including 900 acres of open space, trails, schools on-site, and most recently, commercial space.
- #51 So I’m keeping this little master plan in the corner while I go through these slides so we can orient ourselves. We just covered the residential development. Here is Veranda, the northern-most commercial piece, which is completing its second full year. There are several restaurants and cafes, a pharmacy, an urgent care, a dentist, a dermatologist, a barber shop, an eye doctor, an attorney’s office and a daycare. It’s connected to the homes by a trail and provides residents all around the “work and play” part of the Live Work Play equation. Every one of these is locally owned, and the daycare is a locally owned franchise.
- #52 Here’s the next phase, named The Verge. Site work is nearly done. There will be a site for multi-family development. We are sorely lacking apartments in Chatham County. Then there will be a grocery store as a retail anchor, with outparcels available. The first construction will be Central Carolina Community College’s new Health Sciences building. That groundbreaking was last week. It will really anchor this development as a place with students, instructors and constant activity.
- #53 The southernmost portion will be senior living/skilled nursing with some commercial pads available. I’m going to flip so you can see how 15-501 runs north to south. The big question: timeline: Anticipating The Verge to open in 2020 with all commercial work wrapped up by 2022.
- #54 Next for Chatham Park, I have a video.
- #57 Those are the major highlights. There’s activity within Pittsboro and Siler City. Siler City has a new manufacturer that is hiring 1,200 people, so the town is buzzing. Pittsboro is working closely with Chatham Park, which is in their jurisdiction, and addressing growth challenges and opportunities. I want to close on one major piece of public policy that was adopted last fall and that our office can help you with. Chatham County has a new comprehensive land use plan. That land use plan directs growth to the municipalities and within different development nodes. The type of allowable development for the different nodes is defined in that plan. If you want to buy, sell, list, rezone, develop a parcel in Chatham County, you need to be aware of this plan and its application to a parcel. And we can help you navigate that to streamline the process. We’re here to support job growth and investment in Chatham County, and real estate brokers are a significant part of that mission, so please reach out if you think there’s something we could help with.