The Portland metro region is currently in a state of transition. Over the past decade Portland has pulled away from its former economic peers. However, it has yet to catch the nation's upper tier. The Portland area's high-wage job growth, rising levels of educational attainment, and household income gains are among the best in the nation, outperforming nearly all other large metro areas. As the real Portland changes, some are searching for the "Next Portland." However each of the most commonly cited contenders lacks a very important ingredient or two.

1. Portland In Transition
The metro region is changing, but is far
from over; there is no “Next Portland”
September 2017
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

2. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
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Wait, What Happened?
Willamette Week, August 2015
Thrillist, November 2015

3. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
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• Fast-growing West Coast metro with good economy and high
quality of life. Suffers from poor housing affordability.
• Excels at apparel and design, food and beverage, and
semiconductors. More broadly, strengths include renewable
energy, wood products, and UAVs.
• Also world-class at bringing in young, skilled households. Pretty
unique. Ability to attract talent like better-educated, higher-paying
metros that have a major research university.
• Diverse industrial structure and strong pipeline of talent suggest
good growth moving forward. Nobody really expects these to
change. Huge problem if it does. Housing supply and affordability
is a big risk.
• Portland is also undergoing transformational changes. Apartment
boom in urban core, but changes run deeper. Outperforming old
peers, but not yet caught the nation’s upper economic tier.
• One result is some search for the “Next Portland.” However each
contender fails to measure up in at least one important way.
What is Portland?

4. Portland in Transition

5. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
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Portland’s ranking among the nation’s
100 largest metros
Transformational Change
2007 2016 2007-16 Change
High-Wage Jobs 222,500
32nd Highest Share
301,100
15th Highest Share
+35%
5th Fastest
Educational Attainment
(Share of 25-64 with a College Degree)
34.1%
27th Highest
40.2%
16th Highest
+6.1 ppt
5th Largest
Median Household Income
(Inflation-Adjusted, 2016$)
$63,200
32nd Highest
$68,700
19th Highest
+8.7%
4th Largest
Source: BEA, BLS, Census, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

6. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
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High-Wage Jobs, Pt 1
High-wage jobs
have led the
Portland economic
expansion both in
growth rates and in
the absolute
number of jobs
added.
For more on Job
Polarization, see
our office’s report:
Job Polarization in
Oregon

7. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
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High-Wage Jobs, Pt 2

8. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
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Huge Educational
Attainment Gains
Portland’s 6
percentage point
increase in
educational
attainment is more
than twice the gains
in the typical metro.
Portland now ranks
16th highest for the
share of 25-64 year
olds with a college
degree.
Denver ranks 10th
highest at 43.3%,
significantly higher
than Portland’s
40.1%. Seattle ranks
11th highest at 43.2%

9. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
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Educational Attainment Gains
Throughout the Region

10. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
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Migration by Degree Type
• Previous Office of
Economic Analysis work
shows Portland’s ability
to attract young college
graduates
• Historically, Portland has
had more arts and
humanities degrees. In
recent years migration
has shifted toward
technical, scientific, and
medical degrees.
• For more see our
office’s Stem+ Trends in
Oregon report (2016)

11. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
11
Economic Gains Translate
into Falling Poverty Rates…
Regional poverty
now lower than
before the Great
Recession.
Huge racial gaps
persist.
Improvements
seen for whites
and communities
of color alike.

12. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
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…and Rising Household
Incomes
Portland incomes are
nearly 9% higher
today than before the
Great Recession. The
typical large metro
has yet to recover.
Portland has jumped
from 32nd highest to
19th highest among
the 100 largest
metros.
Portland has pulled
away from many of
its former peers. It
has caught and
surpassed large
metros like Atlanta,
Chicago, and Los
Angeles.

13. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
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Drivers of Income
Gains in recent
years largely about
a stronger
economy.
More people are
working. Even
more people are
working full-time.
Earnings for
workers are up as
well.
Growth in 2016
was driven the
most by a big shift
into full-time
employment.

14. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
14
Regional Income Changes
Portland has significantly
more higher-income
households today than last
decade.
These increase are not due to
migration. Migrants have
lower incomes than current
residents.
These gains are largely due to
improving economy, which is
also pulling more households
out of the bottom tier. No
evidence of lower-income
households moving away
from region, even if pushed
toward fringes.

15. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
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Portland Pulling Away from Peers,
Not Caught Aspirational Metros
For more see ECONorthwest’s Value of Jobs reports and economic checkups:
https://portlandalliance.com/advocacy/economic-reports.html

16. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
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Transformational Change

17. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
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Other Places with
Transformational Changes
Recessions can reorient
or restructure a regional
economy. Growth paths
are altered. Some
industries fall back,
others step forward.
Portland is not the only
metro to undergo
transformational changes
in the past decade, even
as Portland’s changes are
among the largest.

18. There is no
“Next Portland”

19. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
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Contenders’ High-Wage Jobs
Only Salt
Lake City
sees similar
high-wage
gains. But all
others,
except Boise,
see solid
growth.

20. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
20
Contenders’ Population
Growth
No contender sees both
strong population growth
and strong net migration
among college-age and
root-setting populations.
In recent years, Asheville
has seen migration but
overall has a small such
population.
Salt Lake City more about
internal dynamics than
migration.
Boise attracts young
families, not 20-somethings

21. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
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Contenders’ Educational
Attainment
Portland, ME and
Pittsburgh have
similar educational
attainment.
Boise and Salt Lake
City have average
or below average
levels for a large
metro.

22. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
22
Contenders’ Arts Jobs
Only Missoula noses out
PDX with the highest share
of jobs in Arts, Design, and
Entertainment occupations.
All other contenders are
behind the real Portland.
Asheville is half the share
as the real Portland.

23. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
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Contenders’ Demographics
This is a huge advantage

24. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
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25. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
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26. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
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Portland Isn’t Over
Economic and
population growth rates
are slowing today as the
business cycle matures.
Region is far from over.
Retains high quality of
life and strong regional
economy. Need to work
to maintain.
Long-run advantage of
net migration among
young, skilled
households is key.
Affordability and
adequate housing supply
biggest threat

27. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
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joshua.lehner@oregon.gov
(503) 378-4052
www.OregonEconomicAnalysis.com
@OR_EconAnalysis
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