The document discusses trends that will impact growth in Central Iowa, including rapid population growth comparable to California, uneven growth across cities, and demographic changes. Younger and older populations prefer more walkable, mixed-use communities over traditional suburbs. However, low-density development is financially burdensome for taxpayers. The region needs to plan for more compact, sustainable growth to accommodate future needs in a fiscally responsible way, as shown through the example of Sacramento, CA. Regional cooperation will be important to implement smart growth strategies that make infrastructure and development decisions that benefit the entire area.

1. What Will Tomorrow Look Like
In Central Iowa?
William Fulton
January 12, 2012

2. What Will Tomorrow Look
Like In Central Iowa?
• Lots of growth drivers are changing
• Long-term economic competitiveness requires a different
approach to growth
• Taxpayer money will be tight in the future
• A plan focused on “sustainability” (economic as well
as environmental) can help

3. Central Iowa is Growing and Changing
• Central Iowa Is
Growing At
California Levels
• Central Iowa Is
Growing Unevenly
• Boomers and
Millennials Will Drive
the Markets

4. Central Iowa Is Growing Faster Than California
County Population Growth, Raw Numbers, 1990-2010
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Polk Dallas Warren Madison
1990-2000 2000-2010

5. Central Iowa Is Growing Unevenly
City Population Growth, Raw Numbers, 1990-2010
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
-
(5,000)
1990-2000 2000-2010

6. Central Iowa Is Growing Unevenly

7. All of Iowa Is Developing Land At
A Much Faster Rate Than Population Is Being Added

8. Central Iowa’s Demographics Are Changing
 Baby Boomers and
Millennials are the two fastest
growing demographic
segments in America
 Des Moines best place for
young professionals
 Latino population is much
larger than state average
All these demographic
groups – especially young
professionals – are trending
away from traditional suburban
lifestyle

9. Baby Boomers and Millennials Will Drive
The Future Housing and Jobs Market
90,000,000
80,000,000
70,000,000
60,000,000
50,000,000
Population
40,000,000 Labor Force
30,000,000
20,000,000
10,000,000
0
Greates Generation Baby Boomers Gen X Millenials

10. Americans Want More
Walkable, Sustainable
Neighborhoods
“Overall, Americans’ ideal communities have a mix
of houses, places to walk, and amenities within an
easy walk or close drive.”
77% of Americans want pedestrian-friendly features.
88% place more value on the quality of the
neighborhood than the size of the home.

11. Millennials Especially Are Trending
Away From Traditional Suburbs
47% would prefer to live in a city or a suburb with a mix
of houses, shops, and businesses.
40% would prefer a rural or a small town.
12% say they would prefer a suburban neighborhood
with houses only.

12. Americans Value “Sense of Place,”
Whether City, Village, or Rural Town

17. Current Patterns Are a Fiscal Strain

18. Current Patterns Are a Fiscal Strain
 Low-density suburban
development rarely pays
for itself
 Costs are not just
infrastructure related but
also operations and
maintenance
 Burden usually falls on
taxpayers Low-density development means
higher snowplowing costs to
accommodate fewer people.

19. And As Our Population Ages …
… these fiscal
burdens on the
taxpayers are likely
only to get greater

20. And Where’s The Money Going To Come From?
 Federal Highway Trust Fund is bankrupt
 Congress can’t pass transportation bill because nobody
wants to make tough choices
 Current options:
 Increase the gas tax
 Replace/supplement gas tax with something else (VMT tax?)
 Pull back so that federal funds cover only National Highway System.

21. Gas Tax Losing Purchasing Power
Effective Gas Tax Rate (1993 Dollars)
$0.45
$0.40
$0.35
$0.30
$0.25
$0.20
$0.15
$0.10
$0.05
$-
1993 Federal Gas Tax State Gas Tax 2011
Maybe we need to look at different solutions!

22. Compact development lowers costs at the
neighborhood/project level
Charlotte, NC: Case Study of Fire Station Coverage and Annual Costs
Source: City of Charlotte

23. How a Tomorrow Plan
Helped Another Region
Sacramento
• Not a latte-guzzling
coastal metropolis
• State capital in
agricultural area
• Low (comparatively)
housing prices
• Growing rapidly in
population

24. Prosperity?
New urbanized land:
661 square miles
VMT:
47.2 per HH per day
Mode:
Car: 93.7%
Transit 0.8%
Walk: 5.5%

25. Prosperity?
New urbanized land:
304 square miles
VMT:
34.9 per HH per day
Mode:
Car: 83.9%
Transit 3.3%
Walk: 12.9%

26. All This Sounds Good. What Do We Do?
• Use these analytical tools to be aware of the regional
consequences
• You all have to work together on environmental and
infrastructure issues at the regional level anyway
• Make sure that what you are doing locally makes sense
for you locally

27. Good Luck
With Tomorrow!
 You’ve got some great
advantages here
 You have to a lot of work
together in order to remain
competitive worldwide.
 You don’t your tax revenue
eaten up to service low-
density sprawl
 You have to work together
to get all this done

28. Smart Growth America is the only national organization dedicated to
researching, advocating for and leading coalitions to bring smart growth practices to more
communities nationwide.
www.smartgrowthamerica.org
1707 L St. NW Suite 1050, Washington, DC 20036 | 202-207-3355