Despite a bumpy ride throughout 2014, the US economy gained pace while the US equity and fixed income markets outperformed most markets around the world. This performance came with higher market volatility in the US, a rallying dollar, slowing economies in Europe and Asia, and rising geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose for the sixth straight year, posting a 7.52% gain (price-only return). The S&P 500 Index rose 13.69% (including reinvested dividends), marking the third straight year in which the benchmark has returned more than 10%. The Dow closed at a record high on 38 calendar days, while the S&P 500 had 53 record closes. The non-US markets followed a much different track: All major indices logged negative performance for the year (in USD). The MSCI EAFE Index had a -4.90% return and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index a -2.19% return (net dividends, in USD). The dollar’s strong performance relative to major regional currencies contributed significantly to the lower returns for US investors.
Government bond yields fell across major markets, including the US, where many expected higher rates in response to improving economic growth and an eventual rate increase due to the end of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note declined to 2.17% by year-end, down from 3.03% in 2013, with lower prices boosting its return to over 4.0% for the year. The Barclays US Government Bond Index returned 4.92%. World government bonds had slightly positive returns: The Citigroup World Government Bond 1–5 Year Index (hedged) returned 1.90%.
Brian Nash presented on global markets and the economic outlook. Key points include:
- Global growth was slow to start 2016 but recovered, supported by a steady US economy.
- Inflation is expected to rise gradually in many countries due to base effects from low commodity prices.
- China's economy is slowing but more stimulus measures are expected to support stabilization.
- US economic growth remains mixed with mid- and late-cycle dynamics, supporting stocks overall.
- Emerging markets rebounded in Q1 after weakness, while a weaker dollar provided a boost to returns.
Olivier DEsbarres: What to expect in 2016 – same, same, but worseOlivier Desbarres
It is clear that markets so far this year are trading on sentiment, more specifically fear, with hard-data playing second fiddle. Or more accurately, price action suggests that markets are focusing on disappointing December numbers (e.g. US ISM) or even reasonably uneventful data (Chinese manufacturing PMI) and ignoring strong data such as U.S non-farm payrolls, Chinese services PMI and exports (see Figure 1). The hit-and-miss approach of Chinese policy-makers to stabilise equity markets (and ultimately growth) have done little to restore confidence. I nevertheless flag in Figure 37 some of the key data and events to focus on this year.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
MTBiz is for you if you are looking for contemporary information on business, economy and especially on banking industry of Bangladesh. You would also find periodical information on Global Economy and Commodity Markets.
The document summarizes two possible scenarios for Japan's economy following Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's announcement to dissolve parliament and hold new elections in December 2014. Scenario 1 predicts that Abe's economic policies (Abenomics) could be successful in stimulating growth if he remains in power after the election. Scenario 2 suggests that Japan's recession may continue if the election is costly and fails to build policy consensus, further weakening the economy and potentially forcing Abe to resign. Both scenarios discuss the challenges of Japan's large public debt and aging population.
The document provides an executive summary and outlook for 2017, including forecasts for the US economy, international markets, stocks, and bonds. It predicts modest US GDP growth of around 2.5% with low recession risk, fueled by fiscal stimulus. For stocks, mid-single-digit returns are expected. Bonds may see low-to-mid single digit returns. Geopolitical risks increase caution on international markets despite improved fundamentals abroad.
Brian Nash presented on global markets and the economic outlook. Key points include:
- Global growth was slow to start 2016 but recovered, supported by a steady US economy.
- Inflation is expected to rise gradually in many countries due to base effects from low commodity prices.
- China's economy is slowing but more stimulus measures are expected to support stabilization.
- US economic growth remains mixed with mid- and late-cycle dynamics, supporting stocks overall.
- Emerging markets rebounded in Q1 after weakness, while a weaker dollar provided a boost to returns.
Olivier DEsbarres: What to expect in 2016 – same, same, but worseOlivier Desbarres
It is clear that markets so far this year are trading on sentiment, more specifically fear, with hard-data playing second fiddle. Or more accurately, price action suggests that markets are focusing on disappointing December numbers (e.g. US ISM) or even reasonably uneventful data (Chinese manufacturing PMI) and ignoring strong data such as U.S non-farm payrolls, Chinese services PMI and exports (see Figure 1). The hit-and-miss approach of Chinese policy-makers to stabilise equity markets (and ultimately growth) have done little to restore confidence. I nevertheless flag in Figure 37 some of the key data and events to focus on this year.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
MTBiz is for you if you are looking for contemporary information on business, economy and especially on banking industry of Bangladesh. You would also find periodical information on Global Economy and Commodity Markets.
The document summarizes two possible scenarios for Japan's economy following Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's announcement to dissolve parliament and hold new elections in December 2014. Scenario 1 predicts that Abe's economic policies (Abenomics) could be successful in stimulating growth if he remains in power after the election. Scenario 2 suggests that Japan's recession may continue if the election is costly and fails to build policy consensus, further weakening the economy and potentially forcing Abe to resign. Both scenarios discuss the challenges of Japan's large public debt and aging population.
The document provides an executive summary and outlook for 2017, including forecasts for the US economy, international markets, stocks, and bonds. It predicts modest US GDP growth of around 2.5% with low recession risk, fueled by fiscal stimulus. For stocks, mid-single-digit returns are expected. Bonds may see low-to-mid single digit returns. Geopolitical risks increase caution on international markets despite improved fundamentals abroad.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
The document provides an economic and capital markets update for October 2010 from GWL Investment Management Ltd. It summarizes recent economic data and trends in Canada, the US, and internationally. In Canada, retail sales fell and inflation dipped slightly due to lower energy prices. The economy is expected to grow modestly in the second half of 2010. In the US, inflation remained subdued while housing starts increased but are still forecast to decline in the third quarter. The global recovery continued with strong trade growth and industrial output increases in emerging markets. Financial markets posted gains in September with the S&P/TSX Composite Index and US indexes rising over 4% and global equity indexes increasing as well. Bond indexes also rose for the month.
- Global equity markets declined due to concerns over the tapering of US quantitative easing and rising US bond yields. The MSCI AC World Index fell 1.43% on losses in Japan and emerging markets.
- In Asia, Japanese markets saw sharp falls while Chinese and Philippine economic data was relatively strong. The Bank of Thailand cut interest rates. In Europe, unemployment rose in southern countries while data in Switzerland, Sweden and the UK was ahead of expectations.
- US housing and consumer confidence data was positive but equity markets fell for the second week. In Latin America, central banks in Canada and Colombia left rates unchanged while Brazil raised rates and had weak GDP growth.
The document provides a quarterly review by Seaport Investment Management. It summarizes the volatile market conditions in Q1 2016, with global equities rebounding from losses to end barely positive. It discusses ongoing economic slowing and downward revisions to growth forecasts. Seaport's portfolio returned 2.2% in Q1 through a defensive structure that has buffered volatility while providing stable income. The portfolio remains defensively positioned across asset classes like equity, credit, and mortgage to balance upside potential with downside protection.
The document provides an asset allocation and regional equity strategy from Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB). Key points:
1) CSFB raises its tactical equity weighting from 5% underweight to 2% underweight, citing concerns around peaking economic momentum, excess liquidity, rising interest rates, and extended profit levels.
2) The most preferred region is Continental Europe due to late economic cycle, attractive valuations, and historical outperformance during Fed tightening. The UK weighting is increased to benchmark.
3) Bond weightings are reduced to 5% underweight due to inflation risks, with a house view for higher global and US GDP growth in 2004-2005.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
In this issue:
1. TD Wealth Asset Allocation Committee: Market outlook: the year ahead
2. TD Economics: A foundation for uncertain times
3. TD Wealth: New principal residence exemption rules
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Callan develops long-term capital market projections annually to guide strategic planning over 10+ years. For the US, they project GDP growth of 2-2.5% annually, inflation of 2-2.5%, and returns of 6.85% with 18.25% risk for broad US equity and 3% return with 3.75% risk for US fixed income. For non-US developed markets, they project GDP growth of 1.5-2%, inflation of 1.75-2.25%, and returns of 7% with 21% risk for global ex-US equity. Emerging markets are projected to grow 4-5% annually.
- The document provides an economic and market update for May 2014, discussing developments in the US, UK/Europe, Asia/Emerging Markets, and potential risks. Key points discussed include strong US jobs and economic data, central bank decisions in the UK and Europe, and mixed economic data across Asia. Overall the outlook remains cautiously optimistic for global equities in the long term.
- Global markets declined and bond yields rose as economic data increased expectations of central banks reducing monetary stimulus. The US market declined the most while European and emerging markets gained.
- In Asia, markets in Hong Kong, South Korea and Australia performed well but India and Singapore declined. Japan's GDP growth slowed.
- European equity markets rose as data pointed to economic expansion returning. UK and German data was also positive.
- US retail sales rose slightly but manufacturing data was weaker, increasing expectations of the Fed tapering bond purchases and causing markets to decline.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Trade talks still dominate sentiment with focus on US GDPHantec Markets
The outcome of the trade negotiations between the US and China will continue to impact on market sentiment this week, but the tier one US data will also be in focus with Advance GDP and the Fed's preferred inflation measure along with the forward looking PMIs all key. We look at the impact on forex, equities and commodities.
The FOMC minutes revealed disagreement among members about whether to raise rates in September. This uncertainty is causing volatility in markets. While some signals point to a rate hike, others suggest the Fed may pause due to concerns over a slowing Chinese economy and its potential impact on the US. Commodities have continued declining, suggesting weakness in the global economy. The Fed faces challenges in responding to economic troubles abroad while the US risks being impacted as well.
The document discusses investment outlooks for 2016. Key points include:
- Continued low global growth is expected, along with subdued inflation and accommodative monetary policy.
- Risks remain skewed downward, and markets could become volatile on negative news.
- In equities, favor areas with economic tailwinds like the Eurozone, Japan, and US financial and consumer sectors.
- In fixed income, favor a balanced approach including credit sensitive sectors like high yield bonds and senior loans.
US stocks gained for a sixth consecutive quarter, with the S&P 500 rising 5.2% to break 1900 for the first time. Investors looked past a sharp drop in first quarter GDP, focusing on continued Fed support and an expected economic acceleration. Treasury yields fell globally on expectations of further central bank stimulus in Europe. Corporate earnings are forecast to grow through the rest of 2014 after a weak start, supporting the outlook for stocks.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
The document provides an economic and capital markets update for October 2010 from GWL Investment Management Ltd. It summarizes recent economic data and trends in Canada, the US, and internationally. In Canada, retail sales fell and inflation dipped slightly due to lower energy prices. The economy is expected to grow modestly in the second half of 2010. In the US, inflation remained subdued while housing starts increased but are still forecast to decline in the third quarter. The global recovery continued with strong trade growth and industrial output increases in emerging markets. Financial markets posted gains in September with the S&P/TSX Composite Index and US indexes rising over 4% and global equity indexes increasing as well. Bond indexes also rose for the month.
- Global equity markets declined due to concerns over the tapering of US quantitative easing and rising US bond yields. The MSCI AC World Index fell 1.43% on losses in Japan and emerging markets.
- In Asia, Japanese markets saw sharp falls while Chinese and Philippine economic data was relatively strong. The Bank of Thailand cut interest rates. In Europe, unemployment rose in southern countries while data in Switzerland, Sweden and the UK was ahead of expectations.
- US housing and consumer confidence data was positive but equity markets fell for the second week. In Latin America, central banks in Canada and Colombia left rates unchanged while Brazil raised rates and had weak GDP growth.
The document provides a quarterly review by Seaport Investment Management. It summarizes the volatile market conditions in Q1 2016, with global equities rebounding from losses to end barely positive. It discusses ongoing economic slowing and downward revisions to growth forecasts. Seaport's portfolio returned 2.2% in Q1 through a defensive structure that has buffered volatility while providing stable income. The portfolio remains defensively positioned across asset classes like equity, credit, and mortgage to balance upside potential with downside protection.
The document provides an asset allocation and regional equity strategy from Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB). Key points:
1) CSFB raises its tactical equity weighting from 5% underweight to 2% underweight, citing concerns around peaking economic momentum, excess liquidity, rising interest rates, and extended profit levels.
2) The most preferred region is Continental Europe due to late economic cycle, attractive valuations, and historical outperformance during Fed tightening. The UK weighting is increased to benchmark.
3) Bond weightings are reduced to 5% underweight due to inflation risks, with a house view for higher global and US GDP growth in 2004-2005.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
In this issue:
1. TD Wealth Asset Allocation Committee: Market outlook: the year ahead
2. TD Economics: A foundation for uncertain times
3. TD Wealth: New principal residence exemption rules
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Callan develops long-term capital market projections annually to guide strategic planning over 10+ years. For the US, they project GDP growth of 2-2.5% annually, inflation of 2-2.5%, and returns of 6.85% with 18.25% risk for broad US equity and 3% return with 3.75% risk for US fixed income. For non-US developed markets, they project GDP growth of 1.5-2%, inflation of 1.75-2.25%, and returns of 7% with 21% risk for global ex-US equity. Emerging markets are projected to grow 4-5% annually.
- The document provides an economic and market update for May 2014, discussing developments in the US, UK/Europe, Asia/Emerging Markets, and potential risks. Key points discussed include strong US jobs and economic data, central bank decisions in the UK and Europe, and mixed economic data across Asia. Overall the outlook remains cautiously optimistic for global equities in the long term.
- Global markets declined and bond yields rose as economic data increased expectations of central banks reducing monetary stimulus. The US market declined the most while European and emerging markets gained.
- In Asia, markets in Hong Kong, South Korea and Australia performed well but India and Singapore declined. Japan's GDP growth slowed.
- European equity markets rose as data pointed to economic expansion returning. UK and German data was also positive.
- US retail sales rose slightly but manufacturing data was weaker, increasing expectations of the Fed tapering bond purchases and causing markets to decline.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Trade talks still dominate sentiment with focus on US GDPHantec Markets
The outcome of the trade negotiations between the US and China will continue to impact on market sentiment this week, but the tier one US data will also be in focus with Advance GDP and the Fed's preferred inflation measure along with the forward looking PMIs all key. We look at the impact on forex, equities and commodities.
The FOMC minutes revealed disagreement among members about whether to raise rates in September. This uncertainty is causing volatility in markets. While some signals point to a rate hike, others suggest the Fed may pause due to concerns over a slowing Chinese economy and its potential impact on the US. Commodities have continued declining, suggesting weakness in the global economy. The Fed faces challenges in responding to economic troubles abroad while the US risks being impacted as well.
The document discusses investment outlooks for 2016. Key points include:
- Continued low global growth is expected, along with subdued inflation and accommodative monetary policy.
- Risks remain skewed downward, and markets could become volatile on negative news.
- In equities, favor areas with economic tailwinds like the Eurozone, Japan, and US financial and consumer sectors.
- In fixed income, favor a balanced approach including credit sensitive sectors like high yield bonds and senior loans.
US stocks gained for a sixth consecutive quarter, with the S&P 500 rising 5.2% to break 1900 for the first time. Investors looked past a sharp drop in first quarter GDP, focusing on continued Fed support and an expected economic acceleration. Treasury yields fell globally on expectations of further central bank stimulus in Europe. Corporate earnings are forecast to grow through the rest of 2014 after a weak start, supporting the outlook for stocks.
2017 Q3 ASI Wealth Management Quarterly Market ReviewSusan Langdon
This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the past quarter. It begins with a global overview, then features the returns of stock and bond asset classes in the US and international markets.
The report also illustrates the impact of globally diversified portfolios and features a quarterly topic.
This document provides a market update from Mullins Investment Management for January 2015. It includes summaries of key economic indicators, market indexes, commodity prices, and bond yields as of December 31, 2014. It also analyzes the performance of domestic and international markets in 2014 and provides an outlook on the US and global economies for 2015.
I wanted to pass along our 4th quarter Economic Insights piece that we have just put together. This is a 15 page chart book that reviews market performance and looks at the various events that will impact the markets in the coming months. Of particular note, I think you will find the correlation of the markets and the U.S. election interesting (page 8). We also point out a number of themes (on pages 4-5) that could affect all of our client portfolios. As always, we use a lot of graphs and pictures to try and paint a simple story.
The US economy grew modestly in 2015 while global economic growth was the weakest since the financial crisis. US stock markets posted small gains for the year, but non-US developed and emerging markets largely declined. Commodity prices, especially oil, fell sharply. Central banks diverged in their monetary policies, with the Fed raising rates in December while other major banks eased policies. Market volatility increased during the year due to concerns over China's economic slowdown and currency devaluation.
- Emerging markets have experienced weaker economic growth compared to developed markets in 2013.
- Emerging market equities have significantly underperformed developed market equities since 2010, with the underperformance accumulating prior to recent tapering talk.
- Within emerging markets, BRIC countries like Brazil, Russia, India, and China have particularly underperformed the broader emerging market universe.
- Global stocks rose this week as positive corporate earnings and hopes of continued loose monetary policy lifted sentiment. Developed markets outperformed emerging markets.
- In Asia, Chinese and Indonesian stocks declined while Japan's consumer prices fell and its economic growth projections were lifted. Australia will invest in Chinese bonds.
- In Europe, weak economic data boosted rate cut expectations, helping markets rally. Unemployment in Spain jumped while UK GDP growth was 0.3%.
- US stocks gained on positive earnings and housing data, though consumer sentiment declined and durable goods orders fell. GDP growth accelerated to 2.5%.
The document provides a weekly summary of global financial conditions and markets. It notes that global financial stress has decreased since late June and global manufacturing PMIs edged up in July. The US and Europe are leading global economic expansion. US stock markets hit new highs in July on strong economic data despite little earnings growth. Commodity prices remain in a downtrend but have made higher lows recently.
This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the past quarter. It begins with a global overview, then features the returns of stock and bond asset classes in the US and international markets.
The report also illustrates the impact of globally diversified portfolios and features a quarterly topic.
JLL Research - US_Investment_Outlook_-_Q4_2016Matt Berres
The document provides an overview and analysis of investment trends in the US commercial real estate market in Q4 2016. Key points include:
- Total US investment sales reached $432 billion in 2016, down 9.7% from 2015. Multifamily was the strongest sector with a 4.3% increase while retail and hotels declined the most.
- Secondary markets hit a record $113 billion in sales, driven by multifamily and retail investment. Dallas, Atlanta, Phoenix and Denver were top performing secondary markets.
- Interest rates rose significantly in Q4 2016 and are expected to continue climbing in 2017, putting pressure on real estate pricing. However, spreads remain healthy compared to prior peaks.
- Fund
This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the past quarter. It begins with a global overview, then features the returns of stock and bond asset classes in the US and international markets. The report also illustrates the impact of globally diversified portfolios and features a quarterly topic.
It was a volatile year for global markets, with political surprises like Brexit and Donald Trump's election victory causing sharp short-term reactions. Yet most markets finished strongly in 2016, led by Canada and the U.S. Canada had its best year as the TSX was boosted over 50% gains in energy and 28% in materials. The U.S. saw record highs despite an early-year correction, and markets recovered quickly from political shocks on expectations of stimulus. Interest rates rose from historic lows, ending the bond bull market, and corporate earnings bounced back from declines.
Q2 2019 Quarterly Market Commentary: This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the past quarter. It begins with a global overview, then features the returns of stock and bond asset classes in the US and international markets. The report also illustrates the impact of globally diversified portfolios and features a quarterly topic.
This document provides a summary of the global market performance in the second quarter of 2017. It discusses the returns of various stock and bond asset classes in the US, international developed markets, and emerging markets. The US stock market posted modest gains while international developed and emerging markets outperformed. Broad market indices in non-US markets and emerging markets recorded similar returns. The value effect was generally negative across all markets. The document also provides country-level performance for selected developed and emerging markets.
“I have found that the importance of having an investment philosophy—one that is robust and that you can stick with— cannot be overstated.”
—David Booth
This report features world capital market performance and a
timeline of events for the past quarter. It begins with a global
overview, then features the returns of stock and bond asset
classes in the US and international markets.
The report also illustrates the impact of globally diversified
portfolios and features a quarterly topic.
The document provides a summary of global market performance for the fourth quarter of 2014. It begins with an overview of performance by major asset classes, including US and international stocks, bonds, and real estate. US stocks outperformed international developed and emerging market stocks. The document also includes a section on global diversification and concludes with a topic on living with market volatility.
The document provides an overview and summary of global market performance in the second quarter of 2014. It begins with a summary of returns for major asset classes, including US and international stocks, bonds, REITs, and commodities. US stocks posted positive returns, with large caps outperforming small caps. International developed markets and emerging markets also saw positive performance. Real estate and bonds generated higher returns than broad stock indices. The document also reviews country and sector-specific performances within global markets.
The debris of the ‘last major merger’ is dynamically youngSérgio Sacani
The Milky Way’s (MW) inner stellar halo contains an [Fe/H]-rich component with highly eccentric orbits, often referred to as the
‘last major merger.’ Hypotheses for the origin of this component include Gaia-Sausage/Enceladus (GSE), where the progenitor
collided with the MW proto-disc 8–11 Gyr ago, and the Virgo Radial Merger (VRM), where the progenitor collided with the
MW disc within the last 3 Gyr. These two scenarios make different predictions about observable structure in local phase space,
because the morphology of debris depends on how long it has had to phase mix. The recently identified phase-space folds in Gaia
DR3 have positive caustic velocities, making them fundamentally different than the phase-mixed chevrons found in simulations
at late times. Roughly 20 per cent of the stars in the prograde local stellar halo are associated with the observed caustics. Based
on a simple phase-mixing model, the observed number of caustics are consistent with a merger that occurred 1–2 Gyr ago.
We also compare the observed phase-space distribution to FIRE-2 Latte simulations of GSE-like mergers, using a quantitative
measurement of phase mixing (2D causticality). The observed local phase-space distribution best matches the simulated data
1–2 Gyr after collision, and certainly not later than 3 Gyr. This is further evidence that the progenitor of the ‘last major merger’
did not collide with the MW proto-disc at early times, as is thought for the GSE, but instead collided with the MW disc within
the last few Gyr, consistent with the body of work surrounding the VRM.
Travis Hills of MN is Making Clean Water Accessible to All Through High Flux ...Travis Hills MN
By harnessing the power of High Flux Vacuum Membrane Distillation, Travis Hills from MN envisions a future where clean and safe drinking water is accessible to all, regardless of geographical location or economic status.
When I was asked to give a companion lecture in support of ‘The Philosophy of Science’ (https://shorturl.at/4pUXz) I decided not to walk through the detail of the many methodologies in order of use. Instead, I chose to employ a long standing, and ongoing, scientific development as an exemplar. And so, I chose the ever evolving story of Thermodynamics as a scientific investigation at its best.
Conducted over a period of >200 years, Thermodynamics R&D, and application, benefitted from the highest levels of professionalism, collaboration, and technical thoroughness. New layers of application, methodology, and practice were made possible by the progressive advance of technology. In turn, this has seen measurement and modelling accuracy continually improved at a micro and macro level.
Perhaps most importantly, Thermodynamics rapidly became a primary tool in the advance of applied science/engineering/technology, spanning micro-tech, to aerospace and cosmology. I can think of no better a story to illustrate the breadth of scientific methodologies and applications at their best.
Current Ms word generated power point presentation covers major details about the micronuclei test. It's significance and assays to conduct it. It is used to detect the micronuclei formation inside the cells of nearly every multicellular organism. It's formation takes place during chromosomal sepration at metaphase.
Authoring a personal GPT for your research and practice: How we created the Q...Leonel Morgado
Thematic analysis in qualitative research is a time-consuming and systematic task, typically done using teams. Team members must ground their activities on common understandings of the major concepts underlying the thematic analysis, and define criteria for its development. However, conceptual misunderstandings, equivocations, and lack of adherence to criteria are challenges to the quality and speed of this process. Given the distributed and uncertain nature of this process, we wondered if the tasks in thematic analysis could be supported by readily available artificial intelligence chatbots. Our early efforts point to potential benefits: not just saving time in the coding process but better adherence to criteria and grounding, by increasing triangulation between humans and artificial intelligence. This tutorial will provide a description and demonstration of the process we followed, as two academic researchers, to develop a custom ChatGPT to assist with qualitative coding in the thematic data analysis process of immersive learning accounts in a survey of the academic literature: QUAL-E Immersive Learning Thematic Analysis Helper. In the hands-on time, participants will try out QUAL-E and develop their ideas for their own qualitative coding ChatGPT. Participants that have the paid ChatGPT Plus subscription can create a draft of their assistants. The organizers will provide course materials and slide deck that participants will be able to utilize to continue development of their custom GPT. The paid subscription to ChatGPT Plus is not required to participate in this workshop, just for trying out personal GPTs during it.
Describing and Interpreting an Immersive Learning Case with the Immersion Cub...Leonel Morgado
Current descriptions of immersive learning cases are often difficult or impossible to compare. This is due to a myriad of different options on what details to include, which aspects are relevant, and on the descriptive approaches employed. Also, these aspects often combine very specific details with more general guidelines or indicate intents and rationales without clarifying their implementation. In this paper we provide a method to describe immersive learning cases that is structured to enable comparisons, yet flexible enough to allow researchers and practitioners to decide which aspects to include. This method leverages a taxonomy that classifies educational aspects at three levels (uses, practices, and strategies) and then utilizes two frameworks, the Immersive Learning Brain and the Immersion Cube, to enable a structured description and interpretation of immersive learning cases. The method is then demonstrated on a published immersive learning case on training for wind turbine maintenance using virtual reality. Applying the method results in a structured artifact, the Immersive Learning Case Sheet, that tags the case with its proximal uses, practices, and strategies, and refines the free text case description to ensure that matching details are included. This contribution is thus a case description method in support of future comparative research of immersive learning cases. We then discuss how the resulting description and interpretation can be leveraged to change immersion learning cases, by enriching them (considering low-effort changes or additions) or innovating (exploring more challenging avenues of transformation). The method holds significant promise to support better-grounded research in immersive learning.
ESA/ACT Science Coffee: Diego Blas - Gravitational wave detection with orbita...Advanced-Concepts-Team
Presentation in the Science Coffee of the Advanced Concepts Team of the European Space Agency on the 07.06.2024.
Speaker: Diego Blas (IFAE/ICREA)
Title: Gravitational wave detection with orbital motion of Moon and artificial
Abstract:
In this talk I will describe some recent ideas to find gravitational waves from supermassive black holes or of primordial origin by studying their secular effect on the orbital motion of the Moon or satellites that are laser ranged.
Immersive Learning That Works: Research Grounding and Paths ForwardLeonel Morgado
We will metaverse into the essence of immersive learning, into its three dimensions and conceptual models. This approach encompasses elements from teaching methodologies to social involvement, through organizational concerns and technologies. Challenging the perception of learning as knowledge transfer, we introduce a 'Uses, Practices & Strategies' model operationalized by the 'Immersive Learning Brain' and ‘Immersion Cube’ frameworks. This approach offers a comprehensive guide through the intricacies of immersive educational experiences and spotlighting research frontiers, along the immersion dimensions of system, narrative, and agency. Our discourse extends to stakeholders beyond the academic sphere, addressing the interests of technologists, instructional designers, and policymakers. We span various contexts, from formal education to organizational transformation to the new horizon of an AI-pervasive society. This keynote aims to unite the iLRN community in a collaborative journey towards a future where immersive learning research and practice coalesce, paving the way for innovative educational research and practice landscapes.
The binding of cosmological structures by massless topological defectsSérgio Sacani
Assuming spherical symmetry and weak field, it is shown that if one solves the Poisson equation or the Einstein field
equations sourced by a topological defect, i.e. a singularity of a very specific form, the result is a localized gravitational
field capable of driving flat rotation (i.e. Keplerian circular orbits at a constant speed for all radii) of test masses on a thin
spherical shell without any underlying mass. Moreover, a large-scale structure which exploits this solution by assembling
concentrically a number of such topological defects can establish a flat stellar or galactic rotation curve, and can also deflect
light in the same manner as an equipotential (isothermal) sphere. Thus, the need for dark matter or modified gravity theory is
mitigated, at least in part.
The binding of cosmological structures by massless topological defects
2014 in review
1. By Bryan Harris
Dimensional Fund Advisors
ADVISOR BYLINE
Despite a bumpy ride throughout 2014, the US economy gained pace
while the US equity and fixed income markets outperformed most markets
around the world. This performance came with higher market volatility in
the US, a rallying dollar, slowing economies in Europe and Asia, and rising
geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
2014 Review:
Economy & Markets
January 2015
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose for the sixth straight
year, posting a 7.52% gain (price-only return). The S&P
500 Index rose 13.69% (including reinvested dividends),
marking the third straight year in which the benchmark
has returned more than 10%. The Dow closed at a record
high on 38 calendar days, while the S&P 500 had 53 record
closes. The non-US markets followed a much different track:
All major indices logged negative performance for the year
(in USD). The MSCI EAFE Index had a -4.90% return and
the MSCI Emerging Markets Index a -2.19% return (net
dividends, in USD). The dollar’s strong performance relative
to major regional currencies contributed significantly to the
lower returns for US investors.
Government bond yields fell across major markets,
including the US, where many expected higher rates in
response to improving economic growth and an eventual
rate increase due to the end of quantitative easing by the
Federal Reserve. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note
declined to 2.17% by year-end, down from 3.03% in 2013,
with lower prices boosting its return to over 4.0% for the
year. The Barclays US Government Bond Index returned
4.92%. World government bonds had slightly positive
returns: The Citigroup World Government Bond 1–5
Year Index (hedged) returned 1.90%.
2. DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS 2
The above graph highlights some of the year’s prominent
headlines in the context of broad US market performance,
measured by the Russell 3000 Index. These headlines are
not offered to explain market returns. Instead, they serve
as a reminder that investors should view daily events from
a long-term perspective and avoid making investment
decisions based solely on the news.
The chart below offers a snapshot of non-US stock market
performance (developed and emerging markets), measured
by the MSCI All Country World ex USA Index. Again,
the headlines should not be viewed as determinants of
the market’s direction but only as examples of events
that may have tested investor discipline during the year.
5000
5400
5600
5800
6000
5200
Annualized returns
as of December 31, 2014
1 Year 12.56%
3 Years 20.51%
5 Years 15.63%
10 Years 7.94%
US Stock Market Performance
Russell 3000 Index with selected headlines from 2014
Source: Russell Investment Group.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. In US dollars. Index is not available for direct investment. Performance does not reflect the expenses associated with management of an actual portfolio.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
“Senate Confirms
Yellen for Fed”
“Industrial Production
Notches Strongest
Yearly Gain since 2010”
“US Stocks
Slide as
Jitters Persist”
“Corporate Profits
Hit New High as
GDP Revised Up”
“Bond Investors
Still Waiting for
Yields’ Rise”
“Private Employment Hits a New High,
but Government Hiring Lags”
“Housing Slow to
Take Off in Spring”
“US Considers
Lifting Crude
Oil Export Ban”
“Bond Rally
Takes Yields
to 2014 Lows”
“Fed Officials Signal
that Rates to Stay
Low for Long Time”
“Home Builder
Optimism Hits
Six-Month High”
“Consumer
Rebound
Chugs Ahead”
“US Bank
Profits Near
Record Levels”
“Unemployment Claims
Hit Eight-Year Low”
“US, EU Widen
Sanctions on Russia”
“US-Led Airstrikes
Aid Syrian Kurds,
Target Islamic State
Oil Assets”
“Gold Prices
Fall to Four-
Year Low”
“Mortgage Rates Tumble”
“Fed Closes Chapter
on Easy Money”
“Soft New-Home
Sales Weigh
on Recovery”
“Oil Prices Tumble
to Five-Year Lows”
“US Restores
Cuba Ties in
Historic Deal”
“US Economy
Posts Strongest
Growth in More
Than a Decade”
“Dollar Ends Best
Year in More
than a Decade”
Source: Russell Investment Group.
These headlines are not offered to explain market returns. Instead, they serve as a reminder that investors should view daily events from a long-term
perspective and avoid making investment decisions based solely on the news. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. In US dollars.
Index is not available for direct investment. Performance does not reflect the expenses associated with management of an actual portfolio.
US Stock Market Performance
Russell 3000 Index with selected headlines from 2014
“China’s
Economic
Growth
Slows
to 7.7%”
“Ukraine Seeks
International Bailout”
“Russia’s Putin
Signs Treaty
to Annex Crimea”
“China Cracks
Down on Bitcoin”
“Greece to
Sell First
Long-Term
Bonds since
Bailout” “Emerging Markets
Rally—Investors
Return to Assets
Shed in Winter Slide”
“Doubts Rise on
Europe’s Recession Exit”
“ISIS Declares New
Islamist Caliphate”
“NATO Ramps Up Its
War of Words
with Russia”
“Argentina Dances
with Default”
“Israel Says
it is Escalating
Gaza Campaign”
“Weak Growth
Puts Europe at
Economic Crossroads”
“Ebola Virus Crisis
Worsens for Lack
of Global Help”
“Eurozone
Inflation
Remains at
Record Lows”
“Scotland Rejects
Independence
Vote”
“European
Bonds Go
Negative”
“Global Oil
Glut Sends
Prices Plunging”
“Japan Weighs More
Stimulus after Falling
into Recession”
“Russia Moves to Help Sinking Ruble”
“Japanese Bond
Yields Hit
Historic Low”
“Chinese Stocks
and Dollar Were
Stars, Oil Big
Loser in 2014”
215
210
205
200
195
190
185
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Non-US Stock Market Performance
MSCI All Country World Index ex USA with selected headlines from 2014
Source: MSCI.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. In US dollars. Index is not available for direct investment. Performance does not reflect the expenses associated with management of an actual portfolio.
Annualized returns
as of December 31, 2014
1 Year -3.87%
3 Years 8.99%
5 Years 4.43%
10 Years 5.13%
Source: MSCI.
These headlines are not offered to explain market returns. Instead, they serve as a reminder that investors should view daily events from a long-term
perspective and avoid making investment decisions based solely on the news. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. In US dollars.
Index is not available for direct investment. Performance does not reflect the expenses associated with management of an actual portfolio.
Non-US Stock Market Performance
MSCI All Country World Index ex USA (net div.) with selected headlines from 2014
3. DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS 3
ECONOMIC BACKDROP
Accelerating US Recovery
The economy showed signs of weakening in early 2014,
with Q1 GDP growth reported at an annualized -2.9%.
In Q2, GDP rebounded strongly at a 4.6% annual growth
rate (seasonally adjusted)—the highest since 2003. Growth
in Q3 was even stronger at 5%, capping its best six-month
stretch since 2003 and reaching the highest annualized
GDP growth rate in 11 years. If the Fed’s Q4 estimates
hold, 2014 GDP growth will have been in the 2.4% range.
A host of indicators pointed to improving conditions
during the year, including:
• Employment—The US economy added 2.7 million jobs
through November, the best employment growth in
15 years. Claims for jobless benefits ran lower than at
any point since 2000. By year-end, the US had recovered
all jobs lost to the past recession, and joblessness was at
a six-year low. Despite the lowest labor force participation
rate since the 1970s, the economy entered 2015 with
record employment.
• Manufacturing—Economic activity in the manufacturing
sector improved throughout most of 2014. The Institute
for Supply Management (ISM) reported its purchasing
managers index (PMI) at 59.0 in October, 58.7 in
November, and 55.5 in December. (A reading above
50% indicates general expansion.) For the year, the
PMI averaged 55.8, the best reading since the first full
year after the recession in 2007–09.
• Consumer spending—An improving labor market
and lower energy prices translated into higher income
and purchases among American workers. Real personal
consumption expenditures increased at a seasonally
adjusted 3.2% rate in Q3, compared to 2.5% in Q2.
US equity market gains over the past three years have
added $7 trillion to household wealth, which many
believe has helped fuel spending.
• Company earnings—The Department of Commerce
reported a 2.8% rise in US corporate profits in Q2,
followed by a 5.1% increase in Q3, marking 12 straight
quarters of year-over-year growth. According to GDP
data, Q2 after-tax profits hit a record high. However,
after adjustments for depreciation and inventory
changes, profit margins—particularly among smaller
companies—appeared to be declining due to rising
labor costs and capital expenditures.
Declining Oil Prices
Oil prices fell by almost half during 2014, a victim of excess
supply due to rising production—particularly in the US,
where production soared to its highest level since 1986—
and to weakening demand from the economic slowdown
in Europe and Asia. In the US, prices dropped from $107
per barrel in June to just over $53 at year-end. For the year,
Brent crude was down 48% and West Texas Intermediate
crude down 46%. The price decline most affected the
economies and currencies of oil-exporting countries,
especially Russia.
Soaring Dollar
In 2014, the US dollar rose against every developed markets
currency. Overall, it gained 12.5% against a basket of widely
traded currencies, measured by the Wall Street Journal
dollar index. This was the dollar’s best gain since 2005 and
second-best on record. The rise was attributed to stronger
US economic data, falling global oil prices, expectations
of higher interest rates, and weakened currencies resulting
from monetary easing by the Japanese and European
central banks.
Weak Inflation
Despite rising to an 18-month high in May and June (2.1%
each), average US inflation remained low throughout 2014.
In November, year-over-year inflation fell to 1.3%. Since
rising inflation is normally viewed as a sign of an economic
uptick, some believe that weak inflation influenced the
Fed’s decision to not raise interest rates. Across the world’s
largest economies, inflation eased for the sixth straight
month in November, with the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development (OECD) reporting average
annual inflation for its 34 members at 1.5%.
4. DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS 4
2014 INVESTMENT OVERVIEW
Market Summary
The US equity markets—and particularly the large cap
segment of the market—logged a strong year. The S&P 500
Index returned 13.69%; the NASDAQ Composite Index
gained 13.40%; and the Russell 2000, a popular benchmark
for small company US stocks, returned 4.89%. US market
volatility, measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange
Market Volatility Index (VIX), increased to its highest level
in two years, with most activity occurring in Q3. Average
volatility for the year, however, was the lowest since 2006.
Non-US developed stock markets experienced negative
performance across almost all major indices (references
in USD). The MSCI World ex USA Index, a benchmark
for large cap stocks in developed markets outside the
US, returned -4.32%. The small cap and value versions
of the MSCI EAFE index returned -4.95% and -5.39%,
respectively. Emerging markets proved no exception,
with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index returning
-2.19% and the value subindex returning -4.08%.
The small cap subindex returned 1.01%.
Among the equity markets tracked by MSCI, more than
half of the countries in the non-US developed markets
index had negative total returns and the range of returns
was broad. The top three return countries were Israel
(22.77%), New Zealand (7.34%), and Denmark (6.18%).
Countries with the lowest returns were Portugal (-38.24%),
Austria (-29.77%), and Norway (-22.04%).
In the emerging markets, 13 of 23 countries tracked by MSCI
logged negative total returns and the dispersion of returns
was broader. Egypt (29.33%), Indonesia (26.59%), and the
Philippines (25.59%) were the top-performing countries in
the index. The lowest returns in the index came from Russia
(-46.27%), Greece (-39.96%), and Hungary (-27.44%).
Returns of major fixed income indices were positive due
to falling yields and rising prices. One-year US Treasury
notes returned 0.18%, US government bonds 4.92%, world
government bonds (1–5 years USD hedged) 1.90%, and
US TIPS 3.64%.
Real estate securities had a banner year: The Dow Jones
US Select REIT Index returned 32.00%, and the S&P Global
*Annualized.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
In US dollars. Indices are not available for direct investment.
Performance does not reflect the expenses associated with
management of an actual portfolio.
Three
Months
One
Year
Three
Years
US Equity Returns (%)
Non-US Equity Returns (net div.) (%)
Fixed Income Returns (%)
Index
Russell 3000
Russell 2500
Russell 2000
Russell 2000 Value
Russell 2000 Growth
Russell 1000
Russell 1000 Value
Russell 1000 Growth
SP 500
5.24
6.77
9.73
9.40
10.06
4.88
4.98
4.78
4.93
12.56
7.07
4.89
4.22
5.60
13.24
13.45
13.05
13.69
20.51
19.97
19.21
18.29
20.14
20.62
20.89
20.26
20.41
Three
Months
One
Year
Three
YearsIndex
MSCI EAFE Small Cap
MSCI World ex USA Small Cap
MSCI EAFE
MSCI World ex USA
MSCI EAFE Value
MSCI World ex USA Value
MSCI EAFE Growth
MSCI World ex USA Growth
MSCI Emerging Markets
MSCI Emerging Markets
Small Cap
MSCI Emerging Markets Value
-2.27
-3.38
-3.57
-3.69
-4.85
-5.17
-2.29
-2.22
-4.50
-6.02
-6.44
-4.95
-5.35
-4.90
-4.32
-5.39
-5.41
-4.43
-3.26
-2.19
1.01
-4.08
13.83
11.77
11.06
10.47
11.04
10.46
11.03
10.43
4.04
7.65
1.79
Three
Months
One
Year
BofA Merrill Lynch
Three-Month US Treasury Bill
BofA Merrill Lynch 1-Year
US Treasury Note
Citigroup World Government
Bond 1-3 Years (hedged)
Barclays US
Government Bond
BofA Merrill Lynch 1-5 Year
US Treasury and Agency
Citigroup World Government
Bond 1-5 Years (hedged)
Barclays US TIPS
0.00
-0.07
0.22
1.86
0.48
0.47
-0.03
0.04
0.18
0.96
4.92
1.24
1.90
3.64
0.07
0.23
1.03
1.40
0.68
1.54
0.44
*
*
Three
Years*
Three
Years*
Other Returns (%)
Dow Jones US Select REIT
SP Global ex US REIT (net div.)
Bloomberg Commodity Total Return
Three
Months
One
Year
15.09
2.98
-12.10
32.00
10.94
-17.01
16.10
14.42
-9.43
Major World Indices
As of December 31, 2014
5. DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS 5
ex US REIT Index returned 10.94%. Commodities were
negative for the fourth year in a row, with the Bloomberg
Commodity Total Return Index returning -17.01%. Brent
crude oil and gasoline futures were the worst performers in
the index, posting -48.3% and -48.5% returns, respectively.
Natural gas fell 31.7%. Gold was down for the second year
in a row, falling 1.5%; silver prices were down 19.5%. Coffee
was the top-performing commodity in the index at 50.5%.
Diverging Returns
While US equity returns were high relative to those of
other regional markets, returns within various US market
segments diverged. Based on the respective Russell 1000 and
2000 indices, US large cap stocks significantly outperformed
small cap stocks, and within the relative price dimension,
large value slightly outperformed large growth. Among
small cap stocks, growth outperformed value.
In the non-US developed markets (based on the MSCI
indices in USD), all segments had negative performance.
Negative returns among large and small caps stocks were
similar, while large growth slightly outperformed large
value. In the emerging markets, small cap, which had a
slightly positive return, outperformed large cap, and growth
outperformed value, although both returns were negative.
The mixed results of the size and relative price dimensions
in 2014 were not unusual from a historical standpoint.
Although small cap and value stocks have offered higher
expected returns relative to their large cap and growth
counterparts, these return premiums do not appear
each year. For example, since 1979, US small cap has
outperformed large cap in 19 of the 36 calendar years—
or 52% of the time. Results are similar for the relative price
dimension: Since 1979, value has outperformed growth in
20 calendar years—or 55% of the time. Small cap value has
outperformed large cap growth in 58% of the calendar years.
History also has produced multiyear periods in which small
cap and value did not outperform large cap and growth.
Noteworthy periods include 1984 to 1987 and 1994 to 1998,
when small cap underperformed large cap, often by a wide
margin each year. Since 1979, the value premium has also
experienced extended periods of underperformance—and,
in some cases, the differential exceeded 15% margin. The
same is true of small value vs. large growth stocks. In the
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. In US dollars.
Indices are not available for direct investment. Performance does not
reflect the expenses associated with management of an actual portfolio.
Dow Jones US Select REIT
SP 500
Russell 1000 Value
Russell 1000
Russell 1000 Growth
Russell 3000
SP Global ex US REIT (net div.)
Russell 2500
Russell 2000 Growth
Barclays US Government Bond
Russell 2000
Russell 2000 Value
MSCI All Country World (net div.)
Barclays US TIPS
Citigroup World Government Bond
1-5 Years (hedged to USD)
BofA Merrill Lynch
1-5 Year US Treasury and Agency
MSCI Emerging Markets Small Cap (net div.)
Citigroup World Government Bond
1-3 Years (hedged to USD)
BofA Merrill Lynch 1-Year US Treasury Note
BofA Merrill Lynch
Three-Month US Treasury Bill
MSCI Emerging Markets (net div.)
MSCI World ex USA Growth (net div.)
MSCI Emerging Markets Value (net div.)
MSCI World ex USA (net div.)
MSCI EAFE Growth (net div.)
MSCI EAFE (net div.)
MSCI EAFE Small Cap (net div.)
MSCI World ex USA
Small Cap (net div.)
MSCI EAFE Value (net div.)
MSCI World ex USA Value (net div.)
Bloomberg Commodity Total Return
32.00
13.69
13.45
13.24
13.05
12.56
10.94
7.07
5.60
4.92
4.89
4.22
4.16
3.64
1.90
1.24
1.01
0.96
0.18
0.04
-2.19
-3.26
-4.08
-4.32
-4.43
-4.90
-4.95
-5.35
-5.39
-5.41
-17.01
-5 0 5 15 25 35-15
Major World Indices Ranked
by One-Year Performance (%)
As of December 31, 2014
6. DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS 6
three-year period from 2009 to 2011, both value and
small cap underperformed. Yet, despite even extended
negative-premium periods, small cap and value have
outperformed over time, and when the premiums
reversed, they often did so strongly and in multiple years.
Currency Impact
The strength of the US dollar had a negative impact
on returns for US investors with holdings in unhedged
non-US assets. (As a general principal, investors gain
when their home currency falls relative to the local
currency of the foreign asset they own, but lose when
a rise in their home currency reduces the value of the
foreign investment in the local currency.)
For example, in 2014, the dollar’s rise relative to the euro
hurt the returns of US investors in European markets.
The MSCI Europe Index (net dividends) returned 6.84%
in euros but -6.18% in US dollars. This was the case in
regions where the dollar outperformed local currencies.
Other examples: The MSCI UK Index returned 0.50%
in pounds but -5.39% in USD. The MSCI Japan Index
returned 9.83% in yen and -3.72% in USD.
The Canadian economy strengthened during the year despite
concerns about plummeting oil prices and the declining Canadian
dollar. The economy rebounded from 1.0% annualized GDP growth in
Q1 to reach 3.6% in Q2 and 2.8% in Q3. If Q4 projections hold, GDP
growth would have averaged 2.5% in 2014—the strongest rate since 2011.
2014 Canadian Review
January 2015
Canadian stocks delivered positive performance. Although
returns were below those of the US large cap market,
the Canadian broad market outperformed most non-US
developed and emerging markets. For the calendar year,
the SP/TSX Composite Index delivered a 10.55% total
return, and the SP/TSX 60 Index had a 12.27% return
(in CAD). Returns among Canadian equity asset classes
were dispersed but mostly positive: Value stocks returned
3.05%, growth stocks 16.78%, small cap stocks 0.79%,
small value stocks -1.23%, and small growth stocks 2.78%.
Fixed income returns were also strong due to declining
yields. The FTSE TMX Canada Universe Bond Index
returned 8.79% and its short-term counterpart 3.06%.
Canadian one-month T-bills returned 0.89% for the year.
For investors hedged in CAD, world government bonds
(1–5 years) returned 2.81%. The Canadian dollar fell 8.32%
against the US dollar—its biggest decline since 2008.
Despite a stronger economy and moderately rising inflation,
the Bank of Canada kept its benchmark overnight rate at
1.00% for the fourth straight year.
7. DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS 7
The above graph features some of the year’s noteworthy
headlines in the context of the SP/TSX Composite
Index, a broad indicator of Canadian stock market
performance. The selected headlines are presented not
to explain market returns but to illustrate the importance
of viewing daily events from a long-term perspective and
avoiding investment decisions based solely on the news.
ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS
• Declining resources sector—Canadian oil and gas
producers emerged from an 18-month slowdown early
in 2014 to reach record output. The resulting oversupply,
combined with lower global energy demand and OPEC’s
lack of production cuts, contributed to a major decline
in world oil prices. By year-end, crude oil had skidded to
a five-year low, bringing spending cuts among Canadian
firms. Other mining sectors also declined due to weak
global demand and supply gluts.
• Weaker loonie—The Canadian dollar fell dramatically
during Q1 and continued its retreat throughout Q3 and
Q4 after a slight summer rebound. The weakness was
attributed to falling oil prices, the global slowdown,
and expectations of a US central bank rate hike.
43,000
41,000
45,000
46,000
47,000
40,000
44,000
42,000
Annualized returns
as of December 31, 2014
1 Year 10.55%
3 Years 10.22%
5 Years 7.53%
10 Years 7.59%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
“Canadian Dollar
Plumbs New Depths”
“Canada Seeks
Soft Landing for
Highflying Housing”
“Canada, South
Korea Reach
Free-Trade Deal”
“Quebec Sees Slight
Downturn as Investors
Fear PQ Majority”
“World’s Two Largest
Gold Miners Fail Again
in Attempt to Unite”
“Canada Growth
Slows as Domestic
Demand Shrinks”
“Industrial Capacity
Utilization Rate Climbs;
Hits Nearly Seven-Year High”
“Stocks Close
at Record High”
“Canadian Dollar Tumbles
after Disappointing Jobs Data”
“Poloz Signals
Rate Hike to Stay
on Back Burner”
“Canada, China
Tensions Rise
on Cyberattack”
“Canadian Growth
Beats Expectations”
“Labor Productivity
Climbs 1.8%
in 2Q; Fastest
Pace in over 16 Years”
“Canada
Unveils
Credit
to Ease
Small
Businesses’
Payroll Taxes”
“Oil’s Slide
Heightens Fears
of a Big Market
Correction”
“Canada
Upgrades
Growth Outlook
for This Year
and 2015”
“Stronger US
Growth Seen
Bolstering Exports”
“Canadian Dollar
Plunges to
5-Year Low as
Oil Dips Below $60”
“Oil Patch Companies
Flirting with Default”
Source: SP/TSX
These headlines are not offered to explain market returns. Instead, they serve as a reminder that investors should view daily events from a long-term
perspective and avoid making investment decisions based solely on the news. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. In Canadian
dollars. Index is not available for direct investment. Performance does not reflect the expenses associated with management of an actual portfolio.
Canada Stock Market Performance
SP/TSX Composite Index (total return) with selected headlines from 2014
*Annualized
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. In Canadian
dollars. Indices are not available for direct investment. Performance
does not reflect the expenses associated with management of an
actual portfolio.
Three
Months
One
Year
Three
Years
Equity Returns (%)
Index
SP/TSX Composite
SP/TSX 60
MSCI Canada Small Cap
MSCI Canada Large Cap Value
MSCI Canada Mid Cap Value
MSCI Canada Small Cap Value
MSCI Canada Large Cap Growth
MSCI Canada Mid Cap Growth
MSCI Canada Small Cap Growth
-1.47
-0.36
-8.20
-3.04
-13.55
-8.51
3.29
-0.84
-8.04
10.55
12.27
1.12
5.42
-5.07
-1.23
22.00
12.53
2.78
10.22
11.18
3.26
11.99
5.52
5.05
12.12
6.14
0.98
*
Fixed Income Returns (%)
FTSE TMX Universe Bond
FTSE TMX Short-Term Bond
Citigroup World Government Bond
1-5 Years (hedged to CAD)
Canadian One-Month T-Bills
2.70
0.92
0.70
0.23
8.79
3.06
2.81
0.89
3.65
2.27
2.37
0.92
Major Canadian Indices
As of December 31, 2014