The document provides a weekly summary of global financial conditions and markets. It notes that global financial stress has decreased since late June and global manufacturing PMIs edged up in July. The US and Europe are leading global economic expansion. US stock markets hit new highs in July on strong economic data despite little earnings growth. Commodity prices remain in a downtrend but have made higher lows recently.

1. Weekly Chart Book
August 2, 2013
Global Clients…Global Portfolios

2. 2
Accuvest Weekly Update
• Global Financial Conditions
• Global Financial Conditions have improved, stress has moderated nicely since the “Taper Tantrum”
• Macro Risk and Financial Market Stress have decreased since June 24th
• The VIX Index (implied S&P 500 volatility) closed @ 11.98, new 3 month lows
• The Economy
• Global Manufacturing PMI edged up 0.2 points to 50.8 in July, rounding out the eighth straight month of expansion (above 50)
• Developed economies, mostly the U.S. and Europe, are leading global expansion
• United Kingdom PMI rose to its highest level since March 2011
• Eurozone PMI climbed into expansion territory for the first time in two years
• Japan PMI dropped 1.6 points in July, the first decline this year and in-line with a recent slump in Industrial Production
• Nearly all the countries that posted PMI declines in July were emerging economies
• Of all the BRIC’s, only India remains in expansion territory, at 50.1
• Mexico and Turkey PMIs slipped into negative/contraction territory in July
• Relative to other emerging economies, Poland and the Czech Republic are showing economic strength
• Next week’s U.S. economic calendar includes data on ISM Non-Mfg, Mortgage Apps, and Trade Balance
• Interest Rates and Fixed Income
• 10 year US Treasury Yields closed the week at 2.60%, down from 2.70% on Thursday and up from 2.48% last week
• Investment Grade and High Yield Bonds sold off with Treasuries this week, down -0.4% and -0.1%, respectively
• Investment Grade credit spreads remain narrow, currently at 1.70%
• High Yield credit spreads remain narrow, currently at 3.40%, down from 4.42% on June 24th

3. 3
Accuvest Weekly Update
• Global Equity Markets
• The S&P 500, DJIA, DJ Transports, and Russell 2000 hit new all-time highs in July, it’s a U.S. bull market until proven otherwise
• The S&P 500 was up 4.9% in July, bringing YTD gains to 18.2%, capping the best first seven months of the year since 1997
• Post WWII data shows that after gaining at least 15% through July (12 cases), the S&P 500 has an average loss of -1.54% in August
• After diverging in H1 2013, the gap between equity prices and fundamentals has narrowed on better than expected economic data
• Recent market gains have come on zero earnings growth, and estimates for Q3 and Q4 U.S. earnings growth are 16%, and 27%
• Major Currencies
• All major currencies are weaker relative to the USD over the last 6 months
• MXN/USD @ 12.66, strengthening to close the week
• USD/EUR @ 1.33, strengthening from 1.28 on July 9th
• USD/AUD @ 0.89, weakening sharply on the week and making new lows
• JPY/USD @ 98.94, weakening from 98.21 last week, primary support @ 103.57
• Commodities
• Commodities (an equally weighted basket) remain in a cyclical downtrend, but recently made higher lows
• Gold @ $1312/oz., up from $1200/oz. on June 27th. If key resistance at $1330/oz. is broken Gold could rally to $1415/oz.
• The Gold to Gold Miners Ratio spiked this week, and is now back above its 50 Day Moving Average
• Crude Oil @ $106.94/barrel, struggling with resistance @ $108/barrel
disclosure: The opinions expressed in this Weekly Chart Book report are those of the author. The materials and commentary are strictly
informational and should be used for research use only. This bulletin is not intended to provide investing or other advice or guidance with
respect to the matters addressed in the bulletin. All relevant facts, including individual circumstances, need to be considered by the reader to
arrive at investment conclusions that comply with matters addressed in this bulletin. Charts and information used in this report are sourced
from Bloomberg.

4. 4
Accuvest ETF Heat Map

5. 5
US Financial Conditions

6. 6
Developed Markets

7. 7
Emerging Markets

8. 8
The VIX Index (S&P 500 Implied Volatility)

9. 9
Global Financial Stress Index

10. 10
Citi Macro Risk Index

11. 11
US Yield Curve (Current vs. 1 Month & 12 Months Ago)

12. 12
U.S. Treasury 10 Year Yield

13. 13
U.S. Treasury 10 Year Yield – Forecast

14. 14
Investment Grade Bond Prices

15. 15
Investment Grade Credit Spread (BBB – 10 Yr. UST Yield)

16. 16
High Yield Bond Prices

17. 17
High Yield Credit Spreads (HY – 10 Yr. UST Yield)

18. 18
30 Year Mortgage Rates

19. 19
World Equity Indices

20. 20
MSCI All Country World Index

21. 21
S&P 500 Index

22. 22
MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index

23. 23
MSCI Emerging Markets Index

24. 24
Global Heat Map – Sectors & Regions YTD

25. 25
S&P 500 Earnings Estimates (Forward 12 Months)

26. 26
Last week’s Economic Calendar

27. 27
Next week’s Economic Calendar

28. 28
Economic Surprise Monitor

29. 29
Economic Surprise Index (Deviation from Expectations)

30. 30
Global Manufacturing PMI

31. 31
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI

32. 32
US Manufacturing PMI

33. 33
World Currencies vs. U.S. Dollar (6 Month Spot Returns)

34. 34
World Currencies vs. U.S. Dollar (Spot Forecast: Q4 2013)

35. 35
US Dollar Index

36. 36
Euro €

37. 37
Japanese Yen ¥

38. 38
Australian Dollar

39. 39
Mexican Peso

40. 40
Emerging Market Currencies

41. 41
Global Commodity Prices

42. 42
Continuous Commodity Index

43. 43
Gold

44. 44
Gold to Gold Miners Ratio

45. 45
Crude Oil

46. 46
Gasoline Prices (Regular/Unleaded)