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Market Perspectives
July 2015
Jul. 6th, 2015
www.finlightresearch.com
Greece is the symptom, not the disease…
“Oxi!”
– Greek voters, July 5, 2015
“The stock market is a voting machine rather
than a weighing machine. It responds to factual
data not directly, but only as they affect the
decisions of buyers and sellers. ”
- Graham and Dodd
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Executive Summary: Global Asset Allocation
Major asset markets are flat YTD… Global financial markets declined in June
as volatility increased into month end as a result of uncertainty over the
Greek Drama and collapse in Chinese stocks
We believe that the market is underestimating the current situation in Greece
and the systemic contagion it can induce. Greece is the symptom of a
much more profound disease that affects the entire EMU, if not the entire
QE-addicted economic system.
We still believe that equity markets are living on borrowed time., and now
teetering dangerously close to the point of no return.
Rising inflationary expectations are about to change the existing
dynamic in place, on interest rates, stocks, forex and commodities
We continue to expect higher default rates and higher volatility as banks
are likely to be more restrictive in their lending standards
The prospect of rising interest rates, a stronger US dollar and economic
uncertainty , could also be a trigger for higher cross-asset volatility.
Thus, a confluence of forces are converging to disrupt global equity and debt
markets.
We reiterate our view: A perfect storm is building… It combines historically
overvalued stocks with stretched government bonds and corporate credits.
Unlike previous storms (2000, 2008), investors would be left with almost
no place to hide.
We summarize our views as follows
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MACRO VIEW
The Good
Earnings estimates have halted the recent decline and are looking better
Consumer confidence stands is in a good shape
Real PCE, as Real disposable personal income, are showing signs of strength
Existing home sales hit the highest level since 2009
ISM manufacturing remained solid
The Bad
Labor force participation rate tumbled to its lowest level since October 1977
Economic activity momentum in China is slowing. The carnage in stocks is continuing.
Credit growth in China is now in uncharted territory, with total volume of credit growth 3x that of
2007
The drama in Greece is driving up uncertainty
The Ugly
Greece remains the wild card. With recurrent failures in finding a deal, the door seems now
opened to uncharted waters…
Main systemic risk resides in China: After a decade of economic boom, China has
accumulated significant imbalances. China’s economy is supported by approximately six trillion
dollars of 'shadow debt', coupled with an unprecedented credit-fueled construction madness.
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The Big Four Economic Indicators
The overall picture had been one of a slow recovery, but there is no indication of a recession using the
indicators monitored by the NBER.
Over the last months, Industrial Production has been the weak outlier
The current picture is characterized by relatively strong Employment and Income, and erratic Real
Sales.
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Capacity Utilization
Capacity utilization for the
industrial sector
decreased 0.2% in May to
78.1%
It stands 2% below its
long-run (1972–2014)
average.
An interim peak is now
visible at the end of
2014
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Retail Sales
After 4 months of anemic growth, Retail Sales jumped up: +1.2% in May and the previous 2 months
revised higher. May is the third month of growth following three months of contraction
Real Retail Sales have returned to its growth trendline. Thus, the dip in sales we witnessed in early
2015 seems to be linked to the severe winter.
Retail Sales have been boosted by well oriented PCE and Personal Income: On a YoY basis, Real
PCE rose 3.4%. Real Disposable Personal Income rose 3.5%, with real wages and salaries rising 4.8%.
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Consumer Sentiment
The University of Michigan final
Consumer Sentiment for June came in at
96.1, a small increase from the 94.6 June
preliminary reading
the Conference Board's consumer
confidence jumped up from 94.6 to 101.4.
Both measure confirm the uptrend in
consumer optimism.
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Households Net Worth
Consumer optimism is closely linked to its net worth…
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Real Estate
The US housing market is rebounding
Existing home sales hit the highest level since 2009. Sales in May (5.35 million SAAR) are up 5.1%
MoM and 9.2% YoY
The Case Shiller Index was up 4.9% YoY
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GS – Global Leading Indicator (GLI)
The May Final GLI came in at
1.7%yoy. It momentum stands at
0.22%.
According to last estimation, GLI
growth has been positive and
increasing since February. But this
‘Expansion’ phase is anemic and
crossing the border to the
“Slowdown” phase could occur
anytime.
Four of the ten underlying
components of the GLI improved in
June
We continue to think that the
acceleration we’ve been
witnessing since Jan. ‘15 is quite
modest for a typical expansion
phase
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Velocity of Money
The velocity of money (GNP/Money Supply) has been declining since 2006. The velocity of money
is now at its lowest level since at least 1959
This decline is the proof that the GNP growth we’ve seen since 2009 is mainly due to the growth in
money supply.
Could that be a sign of a healthy economy?
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Chinese Economy
Latest PMI data signaled a further
loss of growth momentum in China’s
economy at the end of Q2-2015
Both manufacturing and services PMI's
are weakening, and are now close to
multi-year bottoms.
Manufacturing is flirting with contraction
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EQUITY
From our June Report: “the market seems trapped in a sideways trading range, probably awaiting a
catalyst to breakout one way or another”.
Finally, the market seems to be getting out of its lethargy, as the Chinese equity bubble bursts and
the drama in Greece shakes investors’ nonchalance. Market is teetering dangerously close to the
point of no return.
At this stage, there is no sign yet of a bearish trend formation… A rebound is still possible if the
Greek issue is solved (at least temporarily) and EPS forecasts improve
Recent data shows more evidence of lower productivity, lower potential GDP growth and higher
inflation risk. This is a bad scenario for stocks
We still believe that equity markets are living on borrowed time because…Earnings season hasn't
provided the catalyst needed for the breakout to the upside
Stocks are sailing a seasonally unfavorable period, with no earnings growth expected in the first half
of 2015
Valuations are well above historical norms, especially when we take into account the slower
revenue growth, the lower margins and the starting wage pressures
The coming rate hikes will depress all asset prices for at least a part of next year
Bottom line :
Nothing new compared to our previous report. We remain Neutral equities as long as they stay
trapped in their sideways trading range
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EQUITY
We may revise our view to OW after a clean break of the 2075-2125 range to the upside on the
S&P500, and to UW below the trend since Nov. ‘12 lows
We still think it is wise to incrementally "de-risk" your portfolios by focusing on higher quality / more
defensive / more favorably priced companies
We remain OW on Japan (always on an FX hedged basis) as we see further upside for
Japanese stocks driven by an exit from deflation, the improvement in macro data and corporate
earnings momentum.
Despite outperforming, Japan is still cheap compared to the US / Europe
European equities had given up all of their post QE outperformance before recent developments
We remain Neutral on Europe vs. US despite the policy divergence between the Fed and the
ECB.
According to the 12 month forward P/E, Europe is trading at 15 year highs, relative to the
US
Relative data surprises are turning in favor of the US.
We remain OW EM stocks (ex-China) given the improvement in relative growth forecasts in EM
vs DM and the strong momentum in place. For months, we’ve advised to stay away of Chinese
stocks. And we proved correct.in that.
We remain UW in US small caps vs large caps.
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US Earnings
For Q2 2015, 80 companies have issued negative
EPS guidance and 27 companies have issued
positive EPS guidance
The 12-month forward P/E ratio for the S&P 500 now
stands at 16.5, well above historical averages: 5-
year (13.9), 10-year (14.1)
The earnings momentum for the S&P 500 has
deteriorated a lot since Jan.. ‘15
Factset is expecting +2.2% q2 ’15 earnings growth
if Energy is excluded, and -4.5% if the sector is
included.
For Q2 2015, year-over-year earnings for the S&P
500 are projected to decline by 4.5%. The energy
sector remains the largest contributor to earnings
decline for the index.
Based on Factset data, analysts predict YoY
earnings declines to continue through Q3-2015, but
still expect EPS to reach record levels in Q4-2015
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US Earnings
Crestmont's graph presents the
historical trend for actual
reported EPS (as well as S&P’s
EPS forecasts), and puts into
perspective current and
forecast EPS relatively to the
long-term trend for EPS
S&P's EPS forecasts for 2015
have been decreasing, so far.
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EPS Consensus
Over the last 18 months, EPS consensus saw strong downgrades in all main regions except in Japan
where earnings have seen a strong upgrade
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US vs European Equities
Relative performance of European
equities vs US equities could
decomposed into 3 phases:
H2-2014: Europe lagged the US
on disappointing growth data
Q1-2015: Europe caught up and
outperformed thanks to ECB QE;
Since April: The dynamic has
turned south. Most of the
previous outperformance is
erased.
We keep our previous positioning
and remain Neutral on Europe vs.
US
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Transportation Sector
Transports are giving a negative Dow
Theory signal.
The DJ Transportation Average:
continues to lag the DJ Industrial
Average by about 10%
momentum has been negative since
April
Has already broken major supports to
the downside
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S&P500 – A Long-Term Perspective
The market remains in overvaluation territory. This is the message sent by Q-Ratio.
It’s worth noting that Q-Ratio is appropriate for judging long-run expected returns, but clearly not for
short-term moves.
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S&P500 – A Technical Perspective
The S&P500 has preserved its 55-
wma during the last 162 weeks, the
third longest period since the 80’s.
The level to focus on into Friday’s
close is the 55-wma at 2,039…
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S&P500 – A Medium-Term Perspective
S&P500 momentum is waning
The level to focus on into Friday’s
close is the 55-wma at 2,040…
A clear earnings improvement is
probably the only way (except Fed
intervention) to keep the index
afloat…
… Because it looks like we’ve never
been closer to a decided
downtrend, overs the last years
Breaking through the trendline across
the lows since Oct. ‘11 (~1980) would
completely change the picture.
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Trading Model – S&P500
As of July 6th, our prop. Short-Term trading model is modestly long on the S&P500 (2068.76).
The model is long since June 29th (2057.64)
Out of the 8 active systems, 5 are long with 2082 and 2103 as targets, when the 3 others are short
with targets at 2026 and 2041
Below 2041, the trading model becomes massively long… 2041 is again the level to watch closely!
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Investor Sentiment
According to the latest American
Association of Individual Investors
Sentiment Survey, bulls are now as
rare as during the 2008 meltdown:
Only 22.6% of individual investors are
bullish over the next 6 months, well
below the long-term average of 38.8%.
Given the contrarian nature of this
indicator, we don’t feel comfortable
with a short positioning right now
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Investor Sentiment - S&P500 Skew
US equity options already appear to
price a less optimistic scenario.
The 6 month &P500 skew stands at
very high levels, similar to those seen
in 2010 (double-dip scare) and 2011-
2012 (first European financial crisis)
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Cross-Asset Volatility
With the Greek drama, we saw a broad-
based rise in implied vols, led by
equities (VIX, VSTOXX) and credit (vol in
iTraxx Main and CDX.IG)
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Chinese Stocks: SHCOMP
Shanghai Composite Index is now
breaking below its trend across the
lows since Oct. ’14 (~3770). Next
level to watch: 3600
The index has to find a base
somewhere above 3,450. Otherwise,
the picture will become scaring…
The present carnage is amazingly
in line with the “bubble scenario”
we presented in our May report
(graph below)
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FIXED INCOME & CREDIT
Rates should rise. Sentiment is shifting on inflation expectations, Treasuries falling across the
board and volatility going up.
We believe the higher volatility regime in fixed-income is here to stay.
Inflationary signs should be watched closely as they will foreshadow a steepening decline in govies.
We still expect the Fed to raise rates in September, when the market continues to price such a
scenario at about 40% chance (little more than two 25bp tightening over the next year). UST yields
remain underpriced relative to this scenario.
We expect negative total returns on USTs. We still look for the bear market on USTs to resume.
We’ve been Neutral UST since end of Nov. ’14 and decided to remain so as far as the 10y UST yield
remains below 2.25. Given the last yield move, we are now UW 10y USTs and moved to 2.30 the
threshold below which we become Neutral again. Our ultimate target on 10y yields stands at
2.75 by the end of 2015.
On German Bund, our target zone of 0.75-0.90 were reached and, as expected, we switched from
UW to Neutral. We remain Neutral on German Bund (within the sovereign FI asset class) as long as
the 10-year yield stays above the 0.45 – 0.50 area.
We will switch to UW again as the 10-year yield breaks above 1.00.
Inflation breakevens have risen since the start of the year. We remain OW HICP Inflation through 5y
inflation swaps (long HICP inflation breakevens = receiving HICP vs payind fixed rate) as we expect
a steady pick-up in HICP inflation over 2H15
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
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FIXED INCOME & CREDIT
EM corporate credit outperformed most major asset classes in June
Credit quality deteriorates further in Q1 both in IG and HY, as the releveraging continues to rise at
a sustained pace
Fundamentals in US HY continued to deteriorate with 3 more defaults pushing the US default rate to
over 2% for the first time since 2013
Credit spreads have widened as credit markets have de-risked on rising uncertainty around Greece.
Lower rated new-issue volume has been increasing since the financial crisis. That should drive the
default rate higher and HY spreads wider.
2Q15 is on track to see the highest volume of M&A since 2007 this is usually credit negative as
corporates focus on shareholder returns at the expense of creditors.
We remain UW on corporate credit, due to valuation, to rising corporate leverage (specially in the
US), to rising volatility, to position within the credit cycle and given the weak total return forecast
Within the credit pocket, and over the very short-term, we stick with our preference for Eurozone HY
corps vs US HY corps, because of the ECB massive QE, more resilient macro in the Eurozone, and
the still elevated beta of US credit spreads to oil prices. Institutional allocation to HY is completely
influenced by the ECB-QE. That should support European HY till the Fed hikes its rates.
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
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FIXED INCOME & CREDIT
However, we still prefer US IG over Eurozone.IG, as we think that more attractive spread valuations
and higher carry should fuel a stronger bid for US credit.
our view, lower EUR yields relative to the USD market should fuel a stronger bid for US spreads given
more attractive spread valuations and higher carry.
We still prefer IG over HY on a risk-adjusted basis as we expect higher volatility on spreads
Bottom line : UW Govies, UW US vs Eurozone Govies, remain long flatteners on the US yield curve,
UW credit, OW Eurozone vs US HY credit, UW Eurozone vs US IG credit, Neutral TIPS and OW HICP
Inflation, UW High Yield vs High Grade, Neutral on EM corporates
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
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US Govies – 10y UST
We’ve been Neutral UST since end
of Nov. ’14.
Our previous positioning : “Our
medium-term outlook would stay
neutral as far as the 10y UST yield
remains below 2.25., and move
UW above to play the long awaited
bear market on USTs.”
Thus, we are now UW 10y USTs
and moved to 2.30 the threshold
below which we become Neutral
again.
We think that the risk is still
biased to the upside on the 10y
yield.
In order to confirm our bearish
view, a clean break above 2.50 is
needed.
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
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US Credit – HY Default Rates
At this stage, the risk of rising
defaults / downgrades remains low
But the picture could change
quickly.
Net percentage of senior loan
officers that are tightening lending
C&I standards provides a good
predictor of realized default rates
At just -5.3% net tightening, a
jump to net tightening seems
imminent.
Such a move would give a negative
signal for credit and induce an
increase in its volatility.
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
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Credit – Corporate Leverage
Credit quality deteriorates
further in Q1 both in IG and HY,
as the releveraging continues to
rise at a sustained pace
Leverage is drifting up, in the US
as in Europe, and has reached the
levels at the height of the last credit
cycle
This drift in leverage is driven by:
rising net debt in the US
Falling EBIDTA in Europe
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
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Credit – US IG vs EUR IG
we remain UW on Eurozone vs
US IG, mainly for 2 reasons:
Spread valuation remains
more attractive in the US
relative to Europe
The carry differential
between the US and
Eurozone (like other DM
markets) would support US
credit through a sustained
foreign demand.
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
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EXCHANGE RATES
As expected, the weakness in USD was temporary. We reiterate our bullish view on USD over the
medium-term.
Historically, USD cycles have been persistent, lasting 5-6 years in the appreciation phase. We thus see
further medium term USD gains against the major crosses (especially EUR and JPY) and expect a
cyclical low in EUR/USD somewhere in 2016 (with the ECB tapering)
The DXY uptrend is still intact even if the pace slows. But current dollar valuation implies 25 to 50 bps
higher rates in the US. Without a September hike the uptrend on the US dollar may be damaged
seriously.
Our positioning on USD is driven by the same trading rules:
The sharp reversal on EUR-USD we’ve seen last month (mainly driven by Bunds) failed to break the
July ‘14 downtrend. We remain Neutral on EUR-USD as long as it stays between 1.1040 and
1.145. We will move back to UW if the spot breaks below 1.1040 (always with the same targets at
1.0843 and 1.07), and to OW above 1.145
On USD-JPY, we remain Neutral for the moment
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
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EUR-USD
EUR-USD is still consolidating
below its July ‘14 downtrend
(currently around 1.124).
We remain Neutral as long as
the pivot stays between 1.1040
and 1.145
We will move back to UW if the
spot breaks below 1.1040 (always
with the same targets at 1.0843
and 1.07), and to OW above 1.145
Only a clean break in either
direction is able to shed light on
the next short-term move.
We keep our bearish bias, for
the moment.
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
38
COMMODITY
Commodities continued their slide in June, despite the sharp gains posted by agricultural
commodities (near 13% on the S&P GSCI Agri. Index).
We are still neutral-to-bearish across many complexes in the near term. To mid-2016, return forecasts
are negative for commodities as a whole.
Despite the rally seen in April (mainly driven by a weaker US dollar and expectation of more
stimulus in China), the trend remains bearish. There is no indication of a bottom formation yet.
Global commodity prices could stay suppressed as less demand from China leads to greater
oversupply
Energy remains a large share of operating costs for the commodity complex. Decreasing oil prices
(coupled with a stronger dollar) would induce a cost deflation across the commodity asset class and
drive prices lower.
We think that it is still too early to get in the “reflation trade” of a weaker dollar and higher
commodity prices
We remain UW commodities. We continue, however, to like owning the GSCI index, and think
that commodities hold value as cross-asset portfolio diversifiers and as an inflation hedge.
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
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COMMODITY
Bottom Line :
Base Metals: Base metals don’t appear to be stabilizing yet. We remain Neutral on base metals, but
do not like holding Copper as it appears highly overvalued relative to the dollar and the global growth.
Agriculture: In our May Report, we decided to tactically switch from UW to Neutral because of the
bearish bets on agricultural commodities accumulated by managed money. A crowded deal we didn’t
like. We stay Neutral despite the sharp gains posted over June (especially on last days of Q2),led by
Wheat, Corn and Soybeans.
We are tempted by an OW on Agris but that is now a crowded deal (again). Two weeks ago, HFs swung
bullish by the most on record. We also expect an increase in volatility due to less cooperative wheather
conditions.
OW temptation could be justified by:
After two straight years of strong crops, this year is starting to look different for weather reasons.
The potential for a strong El Nino will completely change the path of grain prices for the coming
months.
For Wheat, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has already reported that both inventories and
acreage planted this year are below analyst expectations.
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
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COMMODITY
Energy: We remain of the view that the oil market is oversupplied, and still seems ripe for a downside
price correction, as OPEC is unlikely to cut.
On July 2nd, we moved from Neutral to UW, as the spot dropped below 56
We will move to Neutral again if the WTI goes above 56.5 and to OW if the it breaks above 63
We still think it is too early to expect major upside for the price of oil as the US is sinking
deeper in a glut of excess oil
We expect WTI to retrace its recent lows of $45/bbl by October. Our S&P GSCI return forecasts
point to negative total returns.
Precious Metals: Nothing new since our previous report. Gold prices are still caught within range-bound
trading. Higher rates set to continue to exert fundamental pressure on gold price.
We change nothing to our view on precious metals. The stimulus provided by the ECB & BoJ is
already factored in gold prices. Precious metals are vulnerable to higher US real yields and
stronger dollar We maintain the view that Q3 15 is likely to be the weakest quarter for gold
We think that as long as gold is trading below 1225, it could be heading back down to test the
March low
We remain UW above 1150-1170 band. We will move Neutral below 1150 and switch
progressively to OW (accumulate) as the spot slides down towards 1000-980, which is likely
the final leg down. Only a clean break above 1225 may push us to reconsider our view.
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
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COMMODITY
Silver is supported by Chinese imports. Our first target on silver stands at 14.70. We still think that
Silver (like gold) is probably ready for its final leg down towards 12.50. At current levels, we are
UW. we will switch progressively to OW (accumulate) as the spot breaks the first material
resistance around 14.70 and slides down towards 12.50
We may reconsider our UW position if the Silver breaks above 16.7-17.
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
42
Commodity Performance
In Q2, agricultural commodities posted sharp gains led by Wheat, Corn & Soybeans
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
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Crude Oil – Tech. Perspective
In our May report, we emphasized
the signs of exhaustion the spot
has shown near 63.
The report also says: “We will
move to OW if the WTI breaks
above 63, and to UW again if it
trades below 56.5 (to target March
lows)”
Thus, we’ve been UW since July
2nd.
The next important support to
watch stands at 52.3
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
44
Gold
Since Feb ‘15, Gold has ranged
between 1150 and 1225.
We change nothing to our
strategy: We remain UW Gold. We
move Neutral below 1150 and
switch progressively to OW
(accumulate) as the spot slides
down towards 1000-980, which
is likely the final leg down.
Only a clean break above 1225
may push us to reconsider our
view.
We think that as long as gold is
trading below 1225, it could be
heading back down to test its
March lows.
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
45
ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES
Hedge funds posted significant declines for June, with the HFRX Absolute Return Index declining -
0.38%, while the HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index declined -1.24%
Macro hedge fund strategies (both CTA and Discretionary Macro strategies) led the decline for the
month, with the HFRX Macro/CTA Index posting -2.66%.
The HFRX Macro Systematic Diversified/CTA Index did even worse and declined by -3.82%, the
worst performance since October 2011. Main sources of losses are exposures to equity, currencies
and commodities (especially short Agris).
HFRX Market Neutral Index gained +1.09%, its best monthly performance since October 2013 on
gains in factor based strategies and fundamental managers
HFRX Event Driven Index posted -1.00% as the global risk appetite declined, deteriorating deal
spreads.
Nonetheless, the HF industry outperformed U.S. equities (and most traditional assets) over 1H-
2015
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
46
ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES
We stick to our preference for risk diversifiers (pure alpha generation strategies) over return
enhancers.
We believe that diversifying portfolios with an increased allocation to alternatives is particularly
attractive at this stage of the cycle.
We are not changing our recommendations on alternatives which we consider to be suited to current
market conditions. We maintain our OW positioning on:
Equity Market Neutrals both for their “intelligent” beta and their alpha contribution.
CTA’s and Global Macro as a diversifier and tail hedge.
Vol. Arb strategy and prefer funds that trade volatility globally (all assets / all regions). This is our
way to position for a higher volatility regime.
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
47
Macro Hedge Funds
Over the past six years, the Fed QE policy has driven equity volatility lower, weighing on hedge fund
returns…
We continue to like HFs as we think that volatility is currently switching to a higher regime
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
48
Macro Hedge Funds
June 29 was a massive drawdown for Macro funds. Only the drawdowns in 2007 were larger.
Macro fund equity beta has surged to extreme levels, probably due to their important exposure to
peripheral govies.
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
49
CTA Funds
A tight relationship has prevailed
between CTA returns and 10 year
yields till the end of May. ’15
this points to the significant long
duration positioning of CTAs till end
of May
luckily, this position has been
reduced on the beginning of June
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
Bottom Line: Global Asset Allocation
Major asset markets are flat YTD… Global financial markets declined in June
as volatility increased into month end as a result of uncertainty over the
Greek Drama and collapse in Chinese stocks
We believe that the market is underestimating the current situation in Greece
and the systemic contagion it can induce. Greece is the symptom of a
much more profound disease that affects the entire EMU, if not the entire
QE-addicted economic system.
We still believe that equity markets are living on borrowed time., and now
teetering dangerously close to the point of no return.
Rising inflationary expectations are about to change the existing
dynamic in place, on interest rates, stocks, forex and commodities
We continue to expect higher default rates and higher volatility as banks
are likely to be more restrictive in their lending standards
The prospect of rising interest rates, a stronger US dollar and economic
uncertainty , could also be a trigger for higher cross-asset volatility.
Thus, a confluence of forces are converging to disrupt global equity and debt
markets.
A perfect storm is building… It combines historically overvalued stocks with
stretched government bonds and corporate credits. Unlike previous storms
(2000, 2008), investors would be left with almost no place to hide.
We summarize our views as follows
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Disclaimer
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
This writing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an
offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation regarding any
securities transaction, or as an offer to provide advisory or other services
by FinLight Research in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation,
purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such
jurisdiction. The information contained in this writing should not be
construed as financial or investment advice on any subject matter.
FinLight Research expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions
taken based on any or all of the information on this writing.
About Us…
FinLight Research is a research-centric company focused on Asset Allocation from a top-down
perspective, on Portfolio Construction, and all related quantitative aspects and risk management issues.
Our expertise expands along 3 axes:
Asset Allocation with risk control and/or risk budgeting techniques
Allocation to alternative investments : Hedge funds, rule-based strategies (momentum, value,
carry, volatility), real assets (real estate, infrastructure, farmland, timberland and natural resources).
Private equity and venture capital should be the next step…
Allocation with a factorial approach built on the understanding (profiling) of the risk/return drivers of
the different asset classes
FinLight Research is an innovation-oriented company. We target to fill the gap between the
academic research and the investment community, especially on real assets and alternatives. We survey
on a continuous basis the academic literature for interesting published and working papers related to
quantitative investing, non-linear profiling, asset allocation, real assets...
52
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
Our Standard Offer
Provide tailor-
made quantitative
analysis of your
portfolios in terms
of asset allocation,
risk profiling and
risk contribution
Provide tailor-
made quantitative
analysis of your
portfolios in terms
of asset allocation,
risk profiling and
risk contribution
•Risk Profiling
Offer a turnkey 3-
step factor-based
process in GAA
with factor
selection, risk
budgeting and
dynamic portfolio
protection
Offer a turnkey 3-
step factor-based
process in GAA
with factor
selection, risk
budgeting and
dynamic portfolio
protection
•Factor-based GAA Process
Provide assistance
with alternative
investments
(including real
assets) in terms of
profiling, and
integration in a
GAA
Provide assistance
with alternative
investments
(including real
assets) in terms of
profiling, and
integration in a
GAA
•Alternative Investments
Provide assistance
with asset
allocation and
related risk control
and/or risk
budgeting
techniques
Provide assistance
with asset
allocation and
related risk control
and/or risk
budgeting
techniques
•Global Asset Allocation
(GAA)
53
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com

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Finlight Research - Market Perspectives - Jul 2015

  • 1. Market Perspectives July 2015 Jul. 6th, 2015 www.finlightresearch.com Greece is the symptom, not the disease…
  • 2. “Oxi!” – Greek voters, July 5, 2015 “The stock market is a voting machine rather than a weighing machine. It responds to factual data not directly, but only as they affect the decisions of buyers and sellers. ” - Graham and Dodd 2 FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
  • 3. Executive Summary: Global Asset Allocation Major asset markets are flat YTD… Global financial markets declined in June as volatility increased into month end as a result of uncertainty over the Greek Drama and collapse in Chinese stocks We believe that the market is underestimating the current situation in Greece and the systemic contagion it can induce. Greece is the symptom of a much more profound disease that affects the entire EMU, if not the entire QE-addicted economic system. We still believe that equity markets are living on borrowed time., and now teetering dangerously close to the point of no return. Rising inflationary expectations are about to change the existing dynamic in place, on interest rates, stocks, forex and commodities We continue to expect higher default rates and higher volatility as banks are likely to be more restrictive in their lending standards The prospect of rising interest rates, a stronger US dollar and economic uncertainty , could also be a trigger for higher cross-asset volatility. Thus, a confluence of forces are converging to disrupt global equity and debt markets. We reiterate our view: A perfect storm is building… It combines historically overvalued stocks with stretched government bonds and corporate credits. Unlike previous storms (2000, 2008), investors would be left with almost no place to hide. We summarize our views as follows 3 FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
  • 4. MACRO VIEW The Good Earnings estimates have halted the recent decline and are looking better Consumer confidence stands is in a good shape Real PCE, as Real disposable personal income, are showing signs of strength Existing home sales hit the highest level since 2009 ISM manufacturing remained solid The Bad Labor force participation rate tumbled to its lowest level since October 1977 Economic activity momentum in China is slowing. The carnage in stocks is continuing. Credit growth in China is now in uncharted territory, with total volume of credit growth 3x that of 2007 The drama in Greece is driving up uncertainty The Ugly Greece remains the wild card. With recurrent failures in finding a deal, the door seems now opened to uncharted waters… Main systemic risk resides in China: After a decade of economic boom, China has accumulated significant imbalances. China’s economy is supported by approximately six trillion dollars of 'shadow debt', coupled with an unprecedented credit-fueled construction madness. 4 FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
  • 5. 5 FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com The Big Four Economic Indicators The overall picture had been one of a slow recovery, but there is no indication of a recession using the indicators monitored by the NBER. Over the last months, Industrial Production has been the weak outlier The current picture is characterized by relatively strong Employment and Income, and erratic Real Sales.
  • 6. 6 FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com Capacity Utilization Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.2% in May to 78.1% It stands 2% below its long-run (1972–2014) average. An interim peak is now visible at the end of 2014
  • 7. 7 FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com Retail Sales After 4 months of anemic growth, Retail Sales jumped up: +1.2% in May and the previous 2 months revised higher. May is the third month of growth following three months of contraction Real Retail Sales have returned to its growth trendline. Thus, the dip in sales we witnessed in early 2015 seems to be linked to the severe winter. Retail Sales have been boosted by well oriented PCE and Personal Income: On a YoY basis, Real PCE rose 3.4%. Real Disposable Personal Income rose 3.5%, with real wages and salaries rising 4.8%.
  • 8. 8 FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com Consumer Sentiment The University of Michigan final Consumer Sentiment for June came in at 96.1, a small increase from the 94.6 June preliminary reading the Conference Board's consumer confidence jumped up from 94.6 to 101.4. Both measure confirm the uptrend in consumer optimism.
  • 9. 9 FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com Households Net Worth Consumer optimism is closely linked to its net worth…
  • 10. 10 FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com Real Estate The US housing market is rebounding Existing home sales hit the highest level since 2009. Sales in May (5.35 million SAAR) are up 5.1% MoM and 9.2% YoY The Case Shiller Index was up 4.9% YoY
  • 11. 11 FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com GS – Global Leading Indicator (GLI) The May Final GLI came in at 1.7%yoy. It momentum stands at 0.22%. According to last estimation, GLI growth has been positive and increasing since February. But this ‘Expansion’ phase is anemic and crossing the border to the “Slowdown” phase could occur anytime. Four of the ten underlying components of the GLI improved in June We continue to think that the acceleration we’ve been witnessing since Jan. ‘15 is quite modest for a typical expansion phase
  • 12. 12 FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com Velocity of Money The velocity of money (GNP/Money Supply) has been declining since 2006. The velocity of money is now at its lowest level since at least 1959 This decline is the proof that the GNP growth we’ve seen since 2009 is mainly due to the growth in money supply. Could that be a sign of a healthy economy?
  • 13. 13 FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com Chinese Economy Latest PMI data signaled a further loss of growth momentum in China’s economy at the end of Q2-2015 Both manufacturing and services PMI's are weakening, and are now close to multi-year bottoms. Manufacturing is flirting with contraction
  • 14. 14 FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com EQUITY From our June Report: “the market seems trapped in a sideways trading range, probably awaiting a catalyst to breakout one way or another”. Finally, the market seems to be getting out of its lethargy, as the Chinese equity bubble bursts and the drama in Greece shakes investors’ nonchalance. Market is teetering dangerously close to the point of no return. At this stage, there is no sign yet of a bearish trend formation… A rebound is still possible if the Greek issue is solved (at least temporarily) and EPS forecasts improve Recent data shows more evidence of lower productivity, lower potential GDP growth and higher inflation risk. This is a bad scenario for stocks We still believe that equity markets are living on borrowed time because…Earnings season hasn't provided the catalyst needed for the breakout to the upside Stocks are sailing a seasonally unfavorable period, with no earnings growth expected in the first half of 2015 Valuations are well above historical norms, especially when we take into account the slower revenue growth, the lower margins and the starting wage pressures The coming rate hikes will depress all asset prices for at least a part of next year Bottom line : Nothing new compared to our previous report. We remain Neutral equities as long as they stay trapped in their sideways trading range
  • 15. 15 FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com EQUITY We may revise our view to OW after a clean break of the 2075-2125 range to the upside on the S&P500, and to UW below the trend since Nov. ‘12 lows We still think it is wise to incrementally "de-risk" your portfolios by focusing on higher quality / more defensive / more favorably priced companies We remain OW on Japan (always on an FX hedged basis) as we see further upside for Japanese stocks driven by an exit from deflation, the improvement in macro data and corporate earnings momentum. Despite outperforming, Japan is still cheap compared to the US / Europe European equities had given up all of their post QE outperformance before recent developments We remain Neutral on Europe vs. US despite the policy divergence between the Fed and the ECB. According to the 12 month forward P/E, Europe is trading at 15 year highs, relative to the US Relative data surprises are turning in favor of the US. We remain OW EM stocks (ex-China) given the improvement in relative growth forecasts in EM vs DM and the strong momentum in place. For months, we’ve advised to stay away of Chinese stocks. And we proved correct.in that. We remain UW in US small caps vs large caps.
  • 16. 16 FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com US Earnings For Q2 2015, 80 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 27 companies have issued positive EPS guidance The 12-month forward P/E ratio for the S&P 500 now stands at 16.5, well above historical averages: 5- year (13.9), 10-year (14.1) The earnings momentum for the S&P 500 has deteriorated a lot since Jan.. ‘15 Factset is expecting +2.2% q2 ’15 earnings growth if Energy is excluded, and -4.5% if the sector is included. For Q2 2015, year-over-year earnings for the S&P 500 are projected to decline by 4.5%. The energy sector remains the largest contributor to earnings decline for the index. Based on Factset data, analysts predict YoY earnings declines to continue through Q3-2015, but still expect EPS to reach record levels in Q4-2015
  • 17. 17 FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com US Earnings Crestmont's graph presents the historical trend for actual reported EPS (as well as S&P’s EPS forecasts), and puts into perspective current and forecast EPS relatively to the long-term trend for EPS S&P's EPS forecasts for 2015 have been decreasing, so far.
  • 18. 18 FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com EPS Consensus Over the last 18 months, EPS consensus saw strong downgrades in all main regions except in Japan where earnings have seen a strong upgrade
  • 19. 19 FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com US vs European Equities Relative performance of European equities vs US equities could decomposed into 3 phases: H2-2014: Europe lagged the US on disappointing growth data Q1-2015: Europe caught up and outperformed thanks to ECB QE; Since April: The dynamic has turned south. Most of the previous outperformance is erased. We keep our previous positioning and remain Neutral on Europe vs. US
  • 20. 20 FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com Transportation Sector Transports are giving a negative Dow Theory signal. The DJ Transportation Average: continues to lag the DJ Industrial Average by about 10% momentum has been negative since April Has already broken major supports to the downside
  • 21. 21 FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com S&P500 – A Long-Term Perspective The market remains in overvaluation territory. This is the message sent by Q-Ratio. It’s worth noting that Q-Ratio is appropriate for judging long-run expected returns, but clearly not for short-term moves.
  • 22. 22 FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com S&P500 – A Technical Perspective The S&P500 has preserved its 55- wma during the last 162 weeks, the third longest period since the 80’s. The level to focus on into Friday’s close is the 55-wma at 2,039…
  • 23. 23 FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com S&P500 – A Medium-Term Perspective S&P500 momentum is waning The level to focus on into Friday’s close is the 55-wma at 2,040… A clear earnings improvement is probably the only way (except Fed intervention) to keep the index afloat… … Because it looks like we’ve never been closer to a decided downtrend, overs the last years Breaking through the trendline across the lows since Oct. ‘11 (~1980) would completely change the picture.
  • 24. 24 FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com Trading Model – S&P500 As of July 6th, our prop. Short-Term trading model is modestly long on the S&P500 (2068.76). The model is long since June 29th (2057.64) Out of the 8 active systems, 5 are long with 2082 and 2103 as targets, when the 3 others are short with targets at 2026 and 2041 Below 2041, the trading model becomes massively long… 2041 is again the level to watch closely!
  • 25. 25 FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com Investor Sentiment According to the latest American Association of Individual Investors Sentiment Survey, bulls are now as rare as during the 2008 meltdown: Only 22.6% of individual investors are bullish over the next 6 months, well below the long-term average of 38.8%. Given the contrarian nature of this indicator, we don’t feel comfortable with a short positioning right now
  • 26. 26 FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com Investor Sentiment - S&P500 Skew US equity options already appear to price a less optimistic scenario. The 6 month &P500 skew stands at very high levels, similar to those seen in 2010 (double-dip scare) and 2011- 2012 (first European financial crisis)
  • 27. 27 FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com Cross-Asset Volatility With the Greek drama, we saw a broad- based rise in implied vols, led by equities (VIX, VSTOXX) and credit (vol in iTraxx Main and CDX.IG)
  • 28. 28 FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com Chinese Stocks: SHCOMP Shanghai Composite Index is now breaking below its trend across the lows since Oct. ’14 (~3770). Next level to watch: 3600 The index has to find a base somewhere above 3,450. Otherwise, the picture will become scaring… The present carnage is amazingly in line with the “bubble scenario” we presented in our May report (graph below)
  • 29. 29 FIXED INCOME & CREDIT Rates should rise. Sentiment is shifting on inflation expectations, Treasuries falling across the board and volatility going up. We believe the higher volatility regime in fixed-income is here to stay. Inflationary signs should be watched closely as they will foreshadow a steepening decline in govies. We still expect the Fed to raise rates in September, when the market continues to price such a scenario at about 40% chance (little more than two 25bp tightening over the next year). UST yields remain underpriced relative to this scenario. We expect negative total returns on USTs. We still look for the bear market on USTs to resume. We’ve been Neutral UST since end of Nov. ’14 and decided to remain so as far as the 10y UST yield remains below 2.25. Given the last yield move, we are now UW 10y USTs and moved to 2.30 the threshold below which we become Neutral again. Our ultimate target on 10y yields stands at 2.75 by the end of 2015. On German Bund, our target zone of 0.75-0.90 were reached and, as expected, we switched from UW to Neutral. We remain Neutral on German Bund (within the sovereign FI asset class) as long as the 10-year yield stays above the 0.45 – 0.50 area. We will switch to UW again as the 10-year yield breaks above 1.00. Inflation breakevens have risen since the start of the year. We remain OW HICP Inflation through 5y inflation swaps (long HICP inflation breakevens = receiving HICP vs payind fixed rate) as we expect a steady pick-up in HICP inflation over 2H15 FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
  • 30. 30 FIXED INCOME & CREDIT EM corporate credit outperformed most major asset classes in June Credit quality deteriorates further in Q1 both in IG and HY, as the releveraging continues to rise at a sustained pace Fundamentals in US HY continued to deteriorate with 3 more defaults pushing the US default rate to over 2% for the first time since 2013 Credit spreads have widened as credit markets have de-risked on rising uncertainty around Greece. Lower rated new-issue volume has been increasing since the financial crisis. That should drive the default rate higher and HY spreads wider. 2Q15 is on track to see the highest volume of M&A since 2007 this is usually credit negative as corporates focus on shareholder returns at the expense of creditors. We remain UW on corporate credit, due to valuation, to rising corporate leverage (specially in the US), to rising volatility, to position within the credit cycle and given the weak total return forecast Within the credit pocket, and over the very short-term, we stick with our preference for Eurozone HY corps vs US HY corps, because of the ECB massive QE, more resilient macro in the Eurozone, and the still elevated beta of US credit spreads to oil prices. Institutional allocation to HY is completely influenced by the ECB-QE. That should support European HY till the Fed hikes its rates. FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
  • 31. 31 FIXED INCOME & CREDIT However, we still prefer US IG over Eurozone.IG, as we think that more attractive spread valuations and higher carry should fuel a stronger bid for US credit. our view, lower EUR yields relative to the USD market should fuel a stronger bid for US spreads given more attractive spread valuations and higher carry. We still prefer IG over HY on a risk-adjusted basis as we expect higher volatility on spreads Bottom line : UW Govies, UW US vs Eurozone Govies, remain long flatteners on the US yield curve, UW credit, OW Eurozone vs US HY credit, UW Eurozone vs US IG credit, Neutral TIPS and OW HICP Inflation, UW High Yield vs High Grade, Neutral on EM corporates FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
  • 32. 32 US Govies – 10y UST We’ve been Neutral UST since end of Nov. ’14. Our previous positioning : “Our medium-term outlook would stay neutral as far as the 10y UST yield remains below 2.25., and move UW above to play the long awaited bear market on USTs.” Thus, we are now UW 10y USTs and moved to 2.30 the threshold below which we become Neutral again. We think that the risk is still biased to the upside on the 10y yield. In order to confirm our bearish view, a clean break above 2.50 is needed. FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
  • 33. 33 US Credit – HY Default Rates At this stage, the risk of rising defaults / downgrades remains low But the picture could change quickly. Net percentage of senior loan officers that are tightening lending C&I standards provides a good predictor of realized default rates At just -5.3% net tightening, a jump to net tightening seems imminent. Such a move would give a negative signal for credit and induce an increase in its volatility. FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
  • 34. 34 Credit – Corporate Leverage Credit quality deteriorates further in Q1 both in IG and HY, as the releveraging continues to rise at a sustained pace Leverage is drifting up, in the US as in Europe, and has reached the levels at the height of the last credit cycle This drift in leverage is driven by: rising net debt in the US Falling EBIDTA in Europe FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
  • 35. 35 Credit – US IG vs EUR IG we remain UW on Eurozone vs US IG, mainly for 2 reasons: Spread valuation remains more attractive in the US relative to Europe The carry differential between the US and Eurozone (like other DM markets) would support US credit through a sustained foreign demand. FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
  • 36. 36 EXCHANGE RATES As expected, the weakness in USD was temporary. We reiterate our bullish view on USD over the medium-term. Historically, USD cycles have been persistent, lasting 5-6 years in the appreciation phase. We thus see further medium term USD gains against the major crosses (especially EUR and JPY) and expect a cyclical low in EUR/USD somewhere in 2016 (with the ECB tapering) The DXY uptrend is still intact even if the pace slows. But current dollar valuation implies 25 to 50 bps higher rates in the US. Without a September hike the uptrend on the US dollar may be damaged seriously. Our positioning on USD is driven by the same trading rules: The sharp reversal on EUR-USD we’ve seen last month (mainly driven by Bunds) failed to break the July ‘14 downtrend. We remain Neutral on EUR-USD as long as it stays between 1.1040 and 1.145. We will move back to UW if the spot breaks below 1.1040 (always with the same targets at 1.0843 and 1.07), and to OW above 1.145 On USD-JPY, we remain Neutral for the moment FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
  • 37. 37 EUR-USD EUR-USD is still consolidating below its July ‘14 downtrend (currently around 1.124). We remain Neutral as long as the pivot stays between 1.1040 and 1.145 We will move back to UW if the spot breaks below 1.1040 (always with the same targets at 1.0843 and 1.07), and to OW above 1.145 Only a clean break in either direction is able to shed light on the next short-term move. We keep our bearish bias, for the moment. FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
  • 38. 38 COMMODITY Commodities continued their slide in June, despite the sharp gains posted by agricultural commodities (near 13% on the S&P GSCI Agri. Index). We are still neutral-to-bearish across many complexes in the near term. To mid-2016, return forecasts are negative for commodities as a whole. Despite the rally seen in April (mainly driven by a weaker US dollar and expectation of more stimulus in China), the trend remains bearish. There is no indication of a bottom formation yet. Global commodity prices could stay suppressed as less demand from China leads to greater oversupply Energy remains a large share of operating costs for the commodity complex. Decreasing oil prices (coupled with a stronger dollar) would induce a cost deflation across the commodity asset class and drive prices lower. We think that it is still too early to get in the “reflation trade” of a weaker dollar and higher commodity prices We remain UW commodities. We continue, however, to like owning the GSCI index, and think that commodities hold value as cross-asset portfolio diversifiers and as an inflation hedge. FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
  • 39. 39 COMMODITY Bottom Line : Base Metals: Base metals don’t appear to be stabilizing yet. We remain Neutral on base metals, but do not like holding Copper as it appears highly overvalued relative to the dollar and the global growth. Agriculture: In our May Report, we decided to tactically switch from UW to Neutral because of the bearish bets on agricultural commodities accumulated by managed money. A crowded deal we didn’t like. We stay Neutral despite the sharp gains posted over June (especially on last days of Q2),led by Wheat, Corn and Soybeans. We are tempted by an OW on Agris but that is now a crowded deal (again). Two weeks ago, HFs swung bullish by the most on record. We also expect an increase in volatility due to less cooperative wheather conditions. OW temptation could be justified by: After two straight years of strong crops, this year is starting to look different for weather reasons. The potential for a strong El Nino will completely change the path of grain prices for the coming months. For Wheat, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has already reported that both inventories and acreage planted this year are below analyst expectations. FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
  • 40. 40 COMMODITY Energy: We remain of the view that the oil market is oversupplied, and still seems ripe for a downside price correction, as OPEC is unlikely to cut. On July 2nd, we moved from Neutral to UW, as the spot dropped below 56 We will move to Neutral again if the WTI goes above 56.5 and to OW if the it breaks above 63 We still think it is too early to expect major upside for the price of oil as the US is sinking deeper in a glut of excess oil We expect WTI to retrace its recent lows of $45/bbl by October. Our S&P GSCI return forecasts point to negative total returns. Precious Metals: Nothing new since our previous report. Gold prices are still caught within range-bound trading. Higher rates set to continue to exert fundamental pressure on gold price. We change nothing to our view on precious metals. The stimulus provided by the ECB & BoJ is already factored in gold prices. Precious metals are vulnerable to higher US real yields and stronger dollar We maintain the view that Q3 15 is likely to be the weakest quarter for gold We think that as long as gold is trading below 1225, it could be heading back down to test the March low We remain UW above 1150-1170 band. We will move Neutral below 1150 and switch progressively to OW (accumulate) as the spot slides down towards 1000-980, which is likely the final leg down. Only a clean break above 1225 may push us to reconsider our view. FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
  • 41. 41 COMMODITY Silver is supported by Chinese imports. Our first target on silver stands at 14.70. We still think that Silver (like gold) is probably ready for its final leg down towards 12.50. At current levels, we are UW. we will switch progressively to OW (accumulate) as the spot breaks the first material resistance around 14.70 and slides down towards 12.50 We may reconsider our UW position if the Silver breaks above 16.7-17. FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
  • 42. 42 Commodity Performance In Q2, agricultural commodities posted sharp gains led by Wheat, Corn & Soybeans FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
  • 43. 43 Crude Oil – Tech. Perspective In our May report, we emphasized the signs of exhaustion the spot has shown near 63. The report also says: “We will move to OW if the WTI breaks above 63, and to UW again if it trades below 56.5 (to target March lows)” Thus, we’ve been UW since July 2nd. The next important support to watch stands at 52.3 FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
  • 44. 44 Gold Since Feb ‘15, Gold has ranged between 1150 and 1225. We change nothing to our strategy: We remain UW Gold. We move Neutral below 1150 and switch progressively to OW (accumulate) as the spot slides down towards 1000-980, which is likely the final leg down. Only a clean break above 1225 may push us to reconsider our view. We think that as long as gold is trading below 1225, it could be heading back down to test its March lows. FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
  • 45. 45 ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES Hedge funds posted significant declines for June, with the HFRX Absolute Return Index declining - 0.38%, while the HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index declined -1.24% Macro hedge fund strategies (both CTA and Discretionary Macro strategies) led the decline for the month, with the HFRX Macro/CTA Index posting -2.66%. The HFRX Macro Systematic Diversified/CTA Index did even worse and declined by -3.82%, the worst performance since October 2011. Main sources of losses are exposures to equity, currencies and commodities (especially short Agris). HFRX Market Neutral Index gained +1.09%, its best monthly performance since October 2013 on gains in factor based strategies and fundamental managers HFRX Event Driven Index posted -1.00% as the global risk appetite declined, deteriorating deal spreads. Nonetheless, the HF industry outperformed U.S. equities (and most traditional assets) over 1H- 2015 FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
  • 46. 46 ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES We stick to our preference for risk diversifiers (pure alpha generation strategies) over return enhancers. We believe that diversifying portfolios with an increased allocation to alternatives is particularly attractive at this stage of the cycle. We are not changing our recommendations on alternatives which we consider to be suited to current market conditions. We maintain our OW positioning on: Equity Market Neutrals both for their “intelligent” beta and their alpha contribution. CTA’s and Global Macro as a diversifier and tail hedge. Vol. Arb strategy and prefer funds that trade volatility globally (all assets / all regions). This is our way to position for a higher volatility regime. FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
  • 47. 47 Macro Hedge Funds Over the past six years, the Fed QE policy has driven equity volatility lower, weighing on hedge fund returns… We continue to like HFs as we think that volatility is currently switching to a higher regime FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
  • 48. 48 Macro Hedge Funds June 29 was a massive drawdown for Macro funds. Only the drawdowns in 2007 were larger. Macro fund equity beta has surged to extreme levels, probably due to their important exposure to peripheral govies. FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
  • 49. 49 CTA Funds A tight relationship has prevailed between CTA returns and 10 year yields till the end of May. ’15 this points to the significant long duration positioning of CTAs till end of May luckily, this position has been reduced on the beginning of June FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
  • 50. Bottom Line: Global Asset Allocation Major asset markets are flat YTD… Global financial markets declined in June as volatility increased into month end as a result of uncertainty over the Greek Drama and collapse in Chinese stocks We believe that the market is underestimating the current situation in Greece and the systemic contagion it can induce. Greece is the symptom of a much more profound disease that affects the entire EMU, if not the entire QE-addicted economic system. We still believe that equity markets are living on borrowed time., and now teetering dangerously close to the point of no return. Rising inflationary expectations are about to change the existing dynamic in place, on interest rates, stocks, forex and commodities We continue to expect higher default rates and higher volatility as banks are likely to be more restrictive in their lending standards The prospect of rising interest rates, a stronger US dollar and economic uncertainty , could also be a trigger for higher cross-asset volatility. Thus, a confluence of forces are converging to disrupt global equity and debt markets. A perfect storm is building… It combines historically overvalued stocks with stretched government bonds and corporate credits. Unlike previous storms (2000, 2008), investors would be left with almost no place to hide. We summarize our views as follows 50 FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
  • 51. 51 Disclaimer FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com This writing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation regarding any securities transaction, or as an offer to provide advisory or other services by FinLight Research in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. The information contained in this writing should not be construed as financial or investment advice on any subject matter. FinLight Research expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information on this writing.
  • 52. About Us… FinLight Research is a research-centric company focused on Asset Allocation from a top-down perspective, on Portfolio Construction, and all related quantitative aspects and risk management issues. Our expertise expands along 3 axes: Asset Allocation with risk control and/or risk budgeting techniques Allocation to alternative investments : Hedge funds, rule-based strategies (momentum, value, carry, volatility), real assets (real estate, infrastructure, farmland, timberland and natural resources). Private equity and venture capital should be the next step… Allocation with a factorial approach built on the understanding (profiling) of the risk/return drivers of the different asset classes FinLight Research is an innovation-oriented company. We target to fill the gap between the academic research and the investment community, especially on real assets and alternatives. We survey on a continuous basis the academic literature for interesting published and working papers related to quantitative investing, non-linear profiling, asset allocation, real assets... 52 FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
  • 53. Our Standard Offer Provide tailor- made quantitative analysis of your portfolios in terms of asset allocation, risk profiling and risk contribution Provide tailor- made quantitative analysis of your portfolios in terms of asset allocation, risk profiling and risk contribution •Risk Profiling Offer a turnkey 3- step factor-based process in GAA with factor selection, risk budgeting and dynamic portfolio protection Offer a turnkey 3- step factor-based process in GAA with factor selection, risk budgeting and dynamic portfolio protection •Factor-based GAA Process Provide assistance with alternative investments (including real assets) in terms of profiling, and integration in a GAA Provide assistance with alternative investments (including real assets) in terms of profiling, and integration in a GAA •Alternative Investments Provide assistance with asset allocation and related risk control and/or risk budgeting techniques Provide assistance with asset allocation and related risk control and/or risk budgeting techniques •Global Asset Allocation (GAA) 53 FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com