Telecom Line, May 2010

                            The future of Telecom:
          Customers becoming their own
                    operator
                  represented by:
                                                                               on behalf of
                       Josef Noll                                            Movation AS
       Chief Technologist, Movation AS,
                                                                        MoMo - Mobile Monday
       Professor, University of Oslo/UNIK
                josef.noll@movation.no                                 CWI - Center for Wireless
                                                                         Innovation Norway
                                                                                                Nerd &
                                                                                              Professional

     www.movation.no, www.mobilemonday.no, cwin.no, www.unik.no, www.innovationstockexchange.no
                                Telecom Line - May 2010 - Josef Noll

torsdag 20. mai 2010
best
                                                              ere so  me of the    egian
                                            ng ini tiative wh to build the Norw
                        on is a v ery exciti               lves
                                                it themse ovation”
                "Movati                 comm
                              n Norway s technology inn
                          es i
                compani         in wireles             Chaffey, A
                                                                  belia
                 national
                          team               – Pa u l
   founded by:




                 “Innovation by Design” in open communities - co-founder of MobileMonday Norway

torsdag 20. mai 2010
Center for Wireless Innovation Norway                                                       CWI
                               http://cwin.no

           A facilitator for industry and seven research
           institutions to form strategic partnerships in
                             wireless R&D
                                                 B3G BS
                                                               Sensor
                                                              Networks
            Sensor Network   Aggregation
             Abstraction &                                               Home/Office
              Monitoring
                                                                                           Sensor
                                                                                          Networks




                                           Car                   Offshore
                                                    Sensor
                                                   Networks                       Sensor
                                                                                 Networks




                                                                   May 2010, Josef Noll
torsdag 20. mai 2010
Postulation




      “Let the user own his own network, and
      your revenue as a Telecom operator will
                     increase”




                       “Open Innovation in a Networked Knowledge Society”
                                                                            4
                              Telecom Line - May 2010 - Josef Noll

torsdag 20. mai 2010
Postulation
                  “Let the user own his own network, and
                  your revenue as a Telecom operator will
                                 increase”
 Stoneage:
 • A phone is related to a household
 • The PC/Laptop belongs to your company
 • Your Mobile Phone is owned by your company


 still remaining
                                                                             SMS
 • The Network is owned by an operator                                      versus
                                                                            video
 but
 • An operator can’t charge for mobile costs
                       “Open Innovation in a Networked Knowledge Society”
                                                                                     4
                              Telecom Line - May 2010 - Josef Noll

torsdag 20. mai 2010
Beyond 4G - the heterogeneous network


                                        B4G
                                         5G?                             Seamless heterogeneity
                                                                          Seamless heterogeneity



                               LTE                                        Personalisedbroadband
                                                                          Personalised broadband
                                B3G:
                              “4G”                                            wireless services
                                                                          wireless services


                        3G:
                        3G                                              Multimedia communication
                                                                       Multimedia Communication



              2G:                                                     Mobile telephony, SMS, FAX,
                                                                       Mobile telephony, SMS, FAX,
              2G
                                                                       Data       Data

  1G:
  1G
                                                                              Mobile telephony
                                                                               Mobile telephony


       1970      1980    1990     2000           2010          2020


                                              “It is all about service delivery”
                                                                                                     5
                                       Telecom Line - May 2010 - Josef Noll

torsdag 20. mai 2010
Beyond 4G - the heterogeneous network
                                                                                                       3D-TV,
                                                                                                     mobile home
                                        B4G
                                         5G?                             Seamless heterogeneity
                                                                          Seamless heterogeneity
                                                                                                       Spotify,
                                                                                                     YouTube,...
                               LTE                                        Personalisedbroadband
                                                                          Personalised broadband
                                B3G:
                              “4G”                                            wireless services
                                                                          wireless services
                                                                                                      Apps, Web,
                                                                                                        Video
                        3G:
                        3G                                              Multimedia communication
                                                                       Multimedia Communication

                                                                                                         SMS

              2G:                                                     Mobile telephony, SMS, FAX,
                                                                       Mobile telephony, SMS, FAX,
              2G
                                                                       Data       Data

  1G:
  1G
                                                                              Mobile telephony
                                                                               Mobile telephony


       1970      1980    1990     2000           2010          2020


                                              “It is all about service delivery”
                                                                                                                   5
                                       Telecom Line - May 2010 - Josef Noll

torsdag 20. mai 2010
B4G - the service aspect
  • Can mobile operators provide sufficient bandwidth at
    home/in the office?

  • Service experience from mobile
    broadband/LTE roll-out
   –   70-80% of all mobile broadband users are inside
       a building
   –   fixed services like TV, video, streaming are more
       dominant
   –   USA today: more data/apps traffic than voice
       traffic                                                            [source: J. Waring, 2010]


  • Mobile modems are part of home/business
    infrastructure
   –   iPad, set-top box, TV, projector
   –   iPhone (AppStore), Android: Widgets, Applets
   –   streaming: YouTube, Spotify, mobile-TV,


                           Revenue does not relate to bandwidth
                                                                                                6
                                   Telecom Line - May 2010 - Josef Noll

torsdag 20. mai 2010
5G access - business considerations

   • Access challenge: More bandwidth with less revenue


   • The radio dilemma                                                                          Capacity increase




                                                        related to 900 MHz capacity
         – frequency !, bandwidth !                                                   3




                                                        relative Capacity increase
         – frequency !, range ↓
         – outdoor to indoor                                                          2



                                                                                                              outdoor
   • The business dilemma                                                             1
                                                                                                              outdoor to indoor
         – 4G access is expensive (range)
         – changing access means                                                      0
                                                                                          900   1800         2100         2600
           loosing revenue
                                                                                                                    frequency [MHz]




                                                                                                                                      7
                               Telecom Line - May 2010 - Josef Noll

torsdag 20. mai 2010
LTE radio dimensioning


                                                                                              Aggregated data rate

                                                                                                   > 65 Mbit/s




                                                                                                   > 20 Mbit/s




                                                                                                   > 7 Mbit/s




                                                                                                   > 1.2 Mbit/s




          Interference at the edge of the network, can be resolved through intelligent frequency reuse
                                                                                                                  8
                                     Telecom Line - May 2010 - Josef Noll

torsdag 20. mai 2010
Indoor dilemma

                                                                            • Coverage      [Motorola 2009]

                                                                            – 38% of users > 20 Mbit/s
                                                                            – 32% of users 7...20 Mbit/s
                                                                            – 30% of users 1.2...7 Mbit/s



                       70-80% indoor
                           usage




                       70-80% indoor usage




          70% indoor users means 30% reduction of cell capacity, and only 45% of satisfied users
                                                                                                              9
                                     Telecom Line - May 2010 - Josef Noll

torsdag 20. mai 2010
Indoor dilemma

                                                                            • Coverage          [Motorola 2009]

                                                                            – 38% of users > 20 Mbit/s
                                                                            – 32% of users 7...20 Mbit/s
                                                                            – 30% of users 1.2...7 Mbit/s



                       70-80% indoor                                        • Indoor coverage
                           usage                                            –   70-80% of traffic from indoor
                                                                            –   decreased signal quality
                                                                            –   users experience less bandwidth than
                                                                                promised

                                                                                16% 17% 32% 35%

                                                                            –   35% of users out of service coverage
                       70-80% indoor usage
                                                                            –   Operators has up to 30% reduced cell
                                                                                capacity



          70% indoor users means 30% reduction of cell capacity, and only 45% of satisfied users
                                                                                                                       9
                                     Telecom Line - May 2010 - Josef Noll

torsdag 20. mai 2010
Telenor expectations




                                                            source: Jørgen Grinnes, Telenor, Dec 2009

    • NPT has opened for “cognitive radio” (April 2010) in 800 band

          Enough capacity in LTE 800 network? Bad indoor coverage with LTE 2600.
                                                                                                        10
                                   Telecom Line - May 2010 - Josef Noll

torsdag 20. mai 2010
Alt 1: Over-dimensioning

                                                                          • Increase of Tx
                                                                          –   10 dB increased Tx -> 70% increased
                                                                              coverage
                                                                               –   cell overlap causes interference
                                                                          –   total network capacity is reduced




          Over-dimensioing costs too much network capacity
                                                                                                                      11
                                   Telecom Line - May 2010 - Josef Noll

torsdag 20. mai 2010
Alt 2: Femtocells
                                                             16% 17% 32% 35% service availability without
                                                                                                    femtocells


                                                                  • Femtocell
                                                                   –       operator-owned
                                                                             –   full QoS control
                                                                             –   enable hand-over
                                                                   –       equipment
                                                                   –       transmission
                                                                   –       installation and deployment cost
                                                                   –       site acquisition or rental cost
                                                                   –       operation and maintenance cost



                                                                  • Customer perspective
                                                                   –       DnBNOR, FFI.... provide only “Telenor”
                                                                           coverage?
                                                                   –       WLAN hotspot: “freedom to select”



          Operator-owned femtocells for indoor coverage
                                                                                                                    12
                                    Telecom Line - May 2010 - Josef Noll

torsdag 20. mai 2010
Alt 2: User-owned home BS

   • Home base station (BS)                                         • Conditions
    – 70-80% indoor usage                                            – spectrum ownership: 2600 GHz
    – voice produced on 3G                                             should be “unlicensed” (NPT, EU,...)
    – mainly data usage with application-                            – Alt: “Give away” guard band spectrum
      based hand-over                                                – adaptive signal adaptation
          – “break than make”
    – provision to all customers, “home
      authentication”                                               • Collaborative business
    – “0%” OpEx costs for operators                                  –    known from NFC - “trusted service
                                                                          manager” (TSM)
                                                                     –    trust relation and “prosumer” approach
   • Maintenance cost
     reduction
    – 12 %/year for an operator-owned
    – user owned: 2 %/year customer
      maintenance support



          Home BaseStations for Increased User-Experience
                                                                                                                   13
                                   Telecom Line - May 2010 - Josef Noll

torsdag 20. mai 2010
Alt 2: User-owned home BS
            OpEx and CapEx
         calculations based on                                                     40% market share
         “free provisioning” of
          home base stations
                   [source: H. Claussen, 2007]




                                                Annual Network Costs [$]
                                                                                   total costs




                                                                           percentage of customers with home-BS


          Total network cost reduction more than 70% with user-owned base stations
                                                                                                                  14
                                       Telecom Line - May 2010 - Josef Noll

torsdag 20. mai 2010
Conclusions

  • 70-80% of 3G/”4G”
    from indoor users
                         outdoor         out/inn

 >20 Mbit/s                38 %            16 %

 7-20 Mbit/s               32 %            17 %
 1.2-7 Mbit/s              30 %            32 %
                                        -35%
  • Femtocell
  –   effective if >30% penetration
  –   limited user experience “where is my
      operator”

  • User-provided Femto
  –   “no maintenance”
  –   requires trust relations

  • Collaborative Radio
      Collaborative Radio & Operation, the driver for cost-effective future wireless broadband networks
                                                                                                          16
                                     Telecom Line - May 2010 - Josef Noll

torsdag 20. mai 2010

The Future Network: Users will own the access in a collaborative radio environment

  • 1.
    Telecom Line, May2010 The future of Telecom: Customers becoming their own operator represented by: on behalf of Josef Noll Movation AS Chief Technologist, Movation AS, MoMo - Mobile Monday Professor, University of Oslo/UNIK josef.noll@movation.no CWI - Center for Wireless Innovation Norway Nerd & Professional www.movation.no, www.mobilemonday.no, cwin.no, www.unik.no, www.innovationstockexchange.no Telecom Line - May 2010 - Josef Noll torsdag 20. mai 2010
  • 2.
    best ere so me of the egian ng ini tiative wh to build the Norw on is a v ery exciti lves it themse ovation” "Movati comm n Norway s technology inn es i compani in wireles Chaffey, A belia national team – Pa u l founded by: “Innovation by Design” in open communities - co-founder of MobileMonday Norway torsdag 20. mai 2010
  • 3.
    Center for WirelessInnovation Norway CWI http://cwin.no A facilitator for industry and seven research institutions to form strategic partnerships in wireless R&D B3G BS Sensor Networks Sensor Network Aggregation Abstraction & Home/Office Monitoring Sensor Networks Car Offshore Sensor Networks Sensor Networks May 2010, Josef Noll torsdag 20. mai 2010
  • 4.
    Postulation “Let the user own his own network, and your revenue as a Telecom operator will increase” “Open Innovation in a Networked Knowledge Society” 4 Telecom Line - May 2010 - Josef Noll torsdag 20. mai 2010
  • 5.
    Postulation “Let the user own his own network, and your revenue as a Telecom operator will increase” Stoneage: • A phone is related to a household • The PC/Laptop belongs to your company • Your Mobile Phone is owned by your company still remaining SMS • The Network is owned by an operator versus video but • An operator can’t charge for mobile costs “Open Innovation in a Networked Knowledge Society” 4 Telecom Line - May 2010 - Josef Noll torsdag 20. mai 2010
  • 6.
    Beyond 4G -the heterogeneous network B4G 5G? Seamless heterogeneity Seamless heterogeneity LTE Personalisedbroadband Personalised broadband B3G: “4G” wireless services wireless services 3G: 3G Multimedia communication Multimedia Communication 2G: Mobile telephony, SMS, FAX, Mobile telephony, SMS, FAX, 2G Data Data 1G: 1G Mobile telephony Mobile telephony 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 “It is all about service delivery” 5 Telecom Line - May 2010 - Josef Noll torsdag 20. mai 2010
  • 7.
    Beyond 4G -the heterogeneous network 3D-TV, mobile home B4G 5G? Seamless heterogeneity Seamless heterogeneity Spotify, YouTube,... LTE Personalisedbroadband Personalised broadband B3G: “4G” wireless services wireless services Apps, Web, Video 3G: 3G Multimedia communication Multimedia Communication SMS 2G: Mobile telephony, SMS, FAX, Mobile telephony, SMS, FAX, 2G Data Data 1G: 1G Mobile telephony Mobile telephony 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 “It is all about service delivery” 5 Telecom Line - May 2010 - Josef Noll torsdag 20. mai 2010
  • 8.
    B4G - theservice aspect • Can mobile operators provide sufficient bandwidth at home/in the office? • Service experience from mobile broadband/LTE roll-out – 70-80% of all mobile broadband users are inside a building – fixed services like TV, video, streaming are more dominant – USA today: more data/apps traffic than voice traffic [source: J. Waring, 2010] • Mobile modems are part of home/business infrastructure – iPad, set-top box, TV, projector – iPhone (AppStore), Android: Widgets, Applets – streaming: YouTube, Spotify, mobile-TV, Revenue does not relate to bandwidth 6 Telecom Line - May 2010 - Josef Noll torsdag 20. mai 2010
  • 9.
    5G access -business considerations • Access challenge: More bandwidth with less revenue • The radio dilemma Capacity increase related to 900 MHz capacity – frequency !, bandwidth ! 3 relative Capacity increase – frequency !, range ↓ – outdoor to indoor 2 outdoor • The business dilemma 1 outdoor to indoor – 4G access is expensive (range) – changing access means 0 900 1800 2100 2600 loosing revenue frequency [MHz] 7 Telecom Line - May 2010 - Josef Noll torsdag 20. mai 2010
  • 10.
    LTE radio dimensioning Aggregated data rate > 65 Mbit/s > 20 Mbit/s > 7 Mbit/s > 1.2 Mbit/s Interference at the edge of the network, can be resolved through intelligent frequency reuse 8 Telecom Line - May 2010 - Josef Noll torsdag 20. mai 2010
  • 11.
    Indoor dilemma • Coverage [Motorola 2009] – 38% of users > 20 Mbit/s – 32% of users 7...20 Mbit/s – 30% of users 1.2...7 Mbit/s 70-80% indoor usage 70-80% indoor usage 70% indoor users means 30% reduction of cell capacity, and only 45% of satisfied users 9 Telecom Line - May 2010 - Josef Noll torsdag 20. mai 2010
  • 12.
    Indoor dilemma • Coverage [Motorola 2009] – 38% of users > 20 Mbit/s – 32% of users 7...20 Mbit/s – 30% of users 1.2...7 Mbit/s 70-80% indoor • Indoor coverage usage – 70-80% of traffic from indoor – decreased signal quality – users experience less bandwidth than promised 16% 17% 32% 35% – 35% of users out of service coverage 70-80% indoor usage – Operators has up to 30% reduced cell capacity 70% indoor users means 30% reduction of cell capacity, and only 45% of satisfied users 9 Telecom Line - May 2010 - Josef Noll torsdag 20. mai 2010
  • 13.
    Telenor expectations source: Jørgen Grinnes, Telenor, Dec 2009 • NPT has opened for “cognitive radio” (April 2010) in 800 band Enough capacity in LTE 800 network? Bad indoor coverage with LTE 2600. 10 Telecom Line - May 2010 - Josef Noll torsdag 20. mai 2010
  • 14.
    Alt 1: Over-dimensioning • Increase of Tx – 10 dB increased Tx -> 70% increased coverage – cell overlap causes interference – total network capacity is reduced Over-dimensioing costs too much network capacity 11 Telecom Line - May 2010 - Josef Noll torsdag 20. mai 2010
  • 15.
    Alt 2: Femtocells 16% 17% 32% 35% service availability without femtocells • Femtocell – operator-owned – full QoS control – enable hand-over – equipment – transmission – installation and deployment cost – site acquisition or rental cost – operation and maintenance cost • Customer perspective – DnBNOR, FFI.... provide only “Telenor” coverage? – WLAN hotspot: “freedom to select” Operator-owned femtocells for indoor coverage 12 Telecom Line - May 2010 - Josef Noll torsdag 20. mai 2010
  • 16.
    Alt 2: User-ownedhome BS • Home base station (BS) • Conditions – 70-80% indoor usage – spectrum ownership: 2600 GHz – voice produced on 3G should be “unlicensed” (NPT, EU,...) – mainly data usage with application- – Alt: “Give away” guard band spectrum based hand-over – adaptive signal adaptation – “break than make” – provision to all customers, “home authentication” • Collaborative business – “0%” OpEx costs for operators – known from NFC - “trusted service manager” (TSM) – trust relation and “prosumer” approach • Maintenance cost reduction – 12 %/year for an operator-owned – user owned: 2 %/year customer maintenance support Home BaseStations for Increased User-Experience 13 Telecom Line - May 2010 - Josef Noll torsdag 20. mai 2010
  • 17.
    Alt 2: User-ownedhome BS OpEx and CapEx calculations based on 40% market share “free provisioning” of home base stations [source: H. Claussen, 2007] Annual Network Costs [$] total costs percentage of customers with home-BS Total network cost reduction more than 70% with user-owned base stations 14 Telecom Line - May 2010 - Josef Noll torsdag 20. mai 2010
  • 18.
    Conclusions •70-80% of 3G/”4G” from indoor users outdoor out/inn >20 Mbit/s 38 % 16 % 7-20 Mbit/s 32 % 17 % 1.2-7 Mbit/s 30 % 32 % -35% • Femtocell – effective if >30% penetration – limited user experience “where is my operator” • User-provided Femto – “no maintenance” – requires trust relations • Collaborative Radio Collaborative Radio & Operation, the driver for cost-effective future wireless broadband networks 16 Telecom Line - May 2010 - Josef Noll torsdag 20. mai 2010