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40 years of crisis,
       10 years of agile...
          now what?


                  Laurent Bossavit
Twitter:@Morendil               http://institut-agile.fr/
1. Where we came from, and why it matters

2. Popular but not successful?

3. Disruption

4. A matter of values

5. Challenges, and a call to action
Progress??
“Those who do not
remember history are
 doomed to repeat it”
    -- Santayana
Three phrases
contemporary with the
 “tire swing” cartoon:
“Software crisis”
“Software factory”
“Software engineering”
Logical necessity...
or attack of the “software
     X” snowclones?
NATO conference, 1968
http://homepages.cs.ncl.ac.uk/brian.randell/NATO/
“It therefore seems natural that we
   should turn to [architects] for
    ideas about how to attack the
    design problem. As one single
     example [...] I would like to
mention: Christopher Alexander...”
            -- Peter Naur
1. Where we came from, and why it matters

2. Popular but not successful?

3. Disruption

4. A matter of values

5. Challenges, and a call to action
“An idea whose time has
come... and gone” -- Tom
    DeMarco, 2009
What results?
Two settled questions:
• Are high-level languages preferable to low-
  level languages, such as assembly?
  (Though assembly still has its fans today...)

• Is programming under “online” conditions,
  i.e. interactively, more effective than
  “offline”, i.e. giving someone your code to
  compile?
  (“Cleanroom” proponents disagree,
  though.)
As to the “crisis”...
“The realization of the full
magnitude of the software crisis
 was the main outcome of the
    meeting at Garmisch”
    -- Brian Randell, 1969
“The general admission of the
 existence of the software failure
     [...] is the most refreshing
experience I have had in a number
of years, because the admission of
    shortcomings is the primary
  condition for improvement.” --
          E.W. Dijkstra, 1968
What actual
historians say...
“...a triumph of misapplied
            quotation.”
-- Doug McIllroy on the 1968
NATO conference proceedings
“One of the brighter students (by the
name of L. da Vinci) was instantly promoted to
                 manager of the
  project, putting him in charge of procuring
             paints, canvases and
    brushes for the rest of the organisation”
 -- T.H.Simpson, “Masterpiece Engineering”,
“Any new idea eventually either
goes ignored, or gets distorted.”
  -- Alistair Cockburn, 2011
Dijkstra’s vision -
 “mathematical engineers”
of software - was distorted
“The programming manager has
found the euphemism with which
 to lend an air of respectability to
      what he does: ‘software
  engineering’.” -- E.W. Dijkstra,
“Software Engineering as it is
  today is just humbug; from an
   academic — i.e. scientific and
educational — point of view it is a
 sham, a fraud..” -- E.W. Dijkstra,
               1993
As to the “crisis”...
1. Where we came from, and why it matters

2. Popular but not successful?

3. Disruption

4. A matter of values

5. Challenges, and a call to action
Disruptive innovation model (Christensen,
    “The Innovator’s Dilemma”, 1997)
• Sustaining innovation: incremental gains;
  same market leaders; performance criteria
  identical

• Disruptive innovation: create new markets
  or target low end; threaten or replace
  market leaders; performance criteria
  displaced
1990s




  “This can’t possibly work”
2000s




  “OK for vacation pictures”
2010s




        R.I.P.
1. Where we came from, and why it matters

2. Popular but not successful?

3. Disruption

4. A matter of values

5. Challenges, and a call to action
Software Engineering still
  leading the market: on
what performance criteria?
• Agile in contrast values “letting go” -
 • while strongly supportive of technique,
    deemphasizes formal methods

 • embraces “soft” sciences and “people
    stuff” - but cognitive science, social
    psychology are quite respectable

 • rejects mechanistic or “industrial”
    worldview
2001




  “This can’t possibly work”
2001




  “This can’t possibly work”
2010




       “Maybe...”
Expansion of Agile
60+ practices
                  Lean,     Governance,
                 DevOps     production


                            Maintenance,
                 Kanban,        UX
                 Personas

                    XP,     teams of 5-10
                  Scrum       collocated
                              greenfield
      12+6 practices
• Agile as disruptive innovation in a control-
  obsessed approach:

  • Inadequate initially
  • Targets “low end” market
  • Gradually makes up for inadequacies
1. Where we came from, and why it matters

2. Popular but not successful?

3. Disruption

4. A matter of values

5. Challenges, and a call to action
Agile is not “mainstream”
           (yet)
Largely oral tradition
Confusing jargon
Distorted history
•   Post-2001 practices:

    •   Retrospectives

    •   Definition of Done

    •   Release planning

    •   Release burndown

    •   Planning poker

    •   Task board
Distorted history
60+ practices      Lean,
                  DevOps



                  Kanban,
                  Personas

                     XP,
                   Scrum


12+6 (acknowledged) practices
Little empirical proof

• Research findings on e.g. TDD or
  refactoring are mixed
• Many practices are unexamined altogether
  (planning poker...)
• Several subjective surveys, but few efforts
  to collect project/practice/outcome data
Still little consensus on
    “agile contracts”
Agile education?
• Overemphasis on “certification” schemes
  which are fundamentally misguided -
  competing with S.E. on its home ground of
  control
• Occasional attempts at university programs
• Suffer from loose contact with research
  community
Recap
1. To understand Agile, know its history

2. SW Engineering is entrenched, not successful

3. Agile follows pattern of disruptive innovation

4. Has different focus: brains, people, groups

5. Must still meet many challenges
Discuss :)
Photo credits

http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fichier:Vampire_or_Werewolf.jpg
http://www.flickr.com/photos/furlined/4725120050/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Polaroid_667_IMGP1864_WP.jpg
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Bullet_ballistic_tip_varmint.jpg

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Forty Years of Crisis, Ten Years of Agile, Now What?

Editor's Notes

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